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Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-03-2020

#9 Stanford kicks off an important week of tennis with something of a warm-up today, St. Mary's, at 3:00pm. Then it's #37 USC at home on Friday at 1:30pm, and #3 UCLA at home on Saturday at noon. 

St. Mary's

The Gaels are 6-3, with wins over bad teams (including Oregon), and losses to USC, UCLA, and Long Beach State. But they have one major weapon, #21 Mariia Kozyreva. While everyone on Courts 2-6 should be favored, expect a tight match on Court 1. Should be excellent tennis between Gordon and Kozyreva today. 

USC 

USC (7-4) started the season with high expectations but got upset by Princeton and didn't get out of ITA Kick-Off Weekend. After a few straightforward wins over lesser California teams, they had a big chance in Orlando at the USTA National Campus against Notre Dame, but lost 4-3, without #1 player Salma Ewing in the lineup. Then another few wins over lesser teams, before a road loss to San Diego and a home loss to UCLA. That UCLA match wasn't entirely lopsided, though. UCLA took doubles and got straightforward wins at #1 and #3 to go up 3-0 before USC's Ana Neffa beat Annette Goulak on Court 5, with the remaining three matches in third sets. USC lost on Court 6 to clinch the match for UCLA and give them a 4-1 lead, but USC's Cayetano beat Abbey Forbes on Court 2 to make it 4-2 before Abi Altick beat USC's Danielle Willson for the final 5-2 margin. 

UCLA

UCLA is really good and they've shown it all year. Not only did they beat Stanford 4-0 at Indoor Nationals, they thrashed Florida State by the same score, and their only loss is to #1 UNC. After Indoor Nationals, they beat Cal 7-0, USC 5-2, and Pepperdine 4-3. The Pepperdine match showed what Pepperdine was capable of (beating UCLA on Courts 1, 5 (due to an injury withdrawal after a second-set tiebreaker pushed it to a third), and 6), but UCLA won behind the doubles point, Forbes on Court 2, Hart on Court 3, and Altick on Court 4. 

Right now, UCLA is better than Stanford is. That's not a knock, that's just fact. That said, playing outdoors and at home is better than playing indoors in Chicago. I think it is highly unlikely that Stanford loses 4-0 again. We might still lose, but I expect this one to be competitive. 

Predictions:
 
I'll say we beat St. Mary's 4-0 (though 6-1 if it's played out wouldn't surprise me), USC 4-1 (with Shin losing on #4), and that we lose 4-3 to UCLA, with UCLA winning the doubles point and getting singles wins on Courts 2, 3, and 4. I like Michaela to bounce back and beat Bolton at home, and for Higuchi and Choy to win close matches, but I don't think it's enough in the end. Happy to be wrong, of course, but we don't quite measure up in doubles. And while Blake has been amazing on Court 3, beating a player like Jada Hart is probably too big of an ask for the freshman. 

How to watch: http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/?DB_OEM_ID=30600
FYI, the new singles rankings are out:

12. Gordon (down from 9)
97. Shin (up from 115, somehow)
117. Blake (down from 111)
121. Arbuthnott (down from 66)

UCLA has four ranked singles players: #8 Forbes, #9 Bolton, #17 Hart, and #113 Vagramov. USC has two: #27 Kulikov and #44 Cayetano. St. Mary's just has Kozyreva. 

In doubles, UCLA has just one ranked team, but it's #1 Bolton/Hart. That's surprising, because UCLA's depth in doubles is outstanding. USC has two teams, but because Kulikov is on both, they'll only have one ranked duo in the lineup: #16 Kulikov/Cayetano and #34 Kulikov/Willson. For our part, Stanford has #19 Arbuthnott/Blake and #43 Choy/Higuchi.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-03-2020

If you recall, earlier this year Gordon beat Kozyreva 6-2, 7-5 in the championship match of ITA Northwest Regionals. She also beat her two years ago, 6-4, 6-0. But last year during ITA Kick-Off Weekend, Kozyreva led Gordon 6-3, 4-3 when the match was abandoned. 

Kozyreva has great results this year. Her losses are all to ranked players, but she's also beaten Cal's Ivanov (#34), Penn's Bryzgalova (#13), LSU's Bridges (#36), Michigan's Pairone (#30, who crushed Gordon at Indoor Nationals, if you recall), and Auburn's Ovunc (#64). She's a really good player, and Gordon is coming off a rough stretch, so I'm interested to see how it goes today.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-03-2020

Doubles has started, but I don't know the scores because the live scoring isn't working....  For whatever reason, the streaming experience for Stanford tennis this year has taken a step back.
From the partial view of the in-stadium scoreboard on the Court 3 camera, I can tell that Choy/Higuchi are leading 4-0, and that Gordon/Madurawe just won a big deciding point on Madurawe's serve to stay on serve at 2-2. No idea on the score on Court 1, since the camera doesn't pick that up.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-04-2020

So, that was all a bit tighter than it needed to be.

First off, Blake didn't play singles. Not sure if that was intentional--in order to work Madurawe into the lineup against an opponent we knew we should beat--or if Blake picked up an injury in doubles, but we'll find out on Friday, either way. That meant everyone else moved up a line--Shin at 3, Choy at 4, Higuchi at 5, and Madurawe at 6. 

Doubles was just too tight. Choy/Higuchi did their thing, winning 6-1, but the top two lines both went to tiebreakers, which Arbuthnott/Blake won while Gordon/Madurawe was still ongoing.

In singles, we got to 4 points easily enough: dominant wins from Choy at 4, Arbuthnott at 2, and then Higuchi at 5. So far, so good. But both Shin and Madurawe dropped their first sets. To their credit, they bounced back and forced third sets, which took the form of a 10-game match tiebreaker because the dual match had already been clinched. It happened in reverse to Gordon, who rolled through her first set but lost the second in a tiebreaker. Now, all three won those match tiebreakers, so the 7-0 win looks like everything was peachy and happened as expected. That's hardly the case.

Gordon playing a tight match against an excellent player doesn't bother me in the least. That's expected when you're playing the other team's best player. But sitting Blake (if it was intentional) almost backfired. I'm glad Madurawe got experience, and I'm glad she bounced back after a disappointing first set. It's hard to not play for weeks and then jump into the lineup. You get better at matches by playing more competitive matches, so I appreciate the fight. And I appreciate Shin's fight, too. I just wish she hadn't had to fight so hard to get back in the match in the first place.

In any event, it marked Arbuthnott's 100th singles win, so congrats to Emily!

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - oldalum - 03-04-2020

(03-04-2020, 10:17 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Blake didn't play singles. 
also could be a pre-existing mild ankle or other leg injury that they were willing to risk for doubles but did not want her playing a singles match with (much more running than in doubles)

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-04-2020

(03-04-2020, 01:16 PM)oldalum Wrote:  
(03-04-2020, 10:17 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Blake didn't play singles. 
also could be a pre-existing mild ankle or other leg injury that they were willing to risk for doubles but did not want her playing a singles match with (much more running than in doubles)

Right. Could be anything, but one just hopes it was a chance to work Madurawe into the lineup in case we need her later. 

FYI, I updated the games won/lost numbers, and Choy's 71.43% of games won leads the team, followed by Madurawe (67.65% in limited action), Higuchi (66.45%), Blake (61.15%), Arbuthnott (58.08%), Gordon (52.38%), and Shin (49.69%). That roughly breaks out to the following average scorelines:

Choy: 6-2, 6-3
Madurawe: 6-3, 6-3
Higuchi: 6-3, 6-3
Blake: 6-4, 6-4
Arbuthnott: 7-5, 7-5
Gordon: 7-5, 5-7, 7-5
Shin: Lose a third-set tiebreaker

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - oldalum - 03-06-2020

against USC we win the doubles point on courts 1 and 2, court 3 was at 5-5.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2020

Rolling in singles! Should be over momentarily.
We’re up 4-0 with Gordon, Arbuthnott, and Shin left on court, but we win all three of those first sets. Looks like they’re gonna play them all out.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-07-2020

Well, that was a nice surprise! 

1. Gordon d. #27 Kulikov 7-5, 6-3
2. Arbuthnott d. #44 Cayetano 6-3, 7-6
3. Blake d. Willson 6-0, 6-1
4. Shin d. Neffa 6-4, 6-2
5. Choy d. Van Alphen 6-2, 6-1
6. Higuchi d. Branstine 6-2, 6-1

Who woulda thought we’d have a tougher time with St. Mary’s than with USC?!

It gets a lot tougher today with the UCLA rematch at noon, but this was a beatdown of a ranked team (albeit without one of its top two players, Salma Ewing) and solid wins over its two ranked singles players.

It played out as you’d expect after doubles: Blake, Choy, and Higuchi notching easy wins. But Shin fought and beat a very good player in Ana Neffa, Gordon turned it on in the second set to beat Kulikov, and Arbuthnott held off a push from USC’s latest star freshman. I expected a win, but 7-0 with Shin looking confident? Man alive, couldn’t have come at a better time.
For their part, UCLA beat Cal 4-3 yesterday, behind doubles and courts 2, 4, and 6 in singles. So, Hart and Bolton both lost, which is a good reminder that no matter how disappointing Cal’s early season has gone, it is a very dangerous team, especially at the top.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-07-2020

So, how do we turn around the 4-0 demolishing we suffered at UCLA’s hands at Indoor Nationals? Here are some ideas:

1. Choy lost the first in a tiebreaker and was leading in the second. The boost from playing at home and outdoors makes me give her the edge there. 

2. Likewise, Gordon split her first two sets with Bolton. With the home court advantage and revenge on her mind, let’s hope she brings it today.

3. Higuchi lost 6-3, 6-3. Not ideal, but not embarrassing, either. Playing on the court that should be named after her when she’s done? I like her chances.

4. So, maybe that’s three points. Where’s the fourth? Probably not doubles (but if we win doubles, our winning odds go from like 20% to 50%). Probably not Court 2, where Arbuthnott lost 6-2, 6-0 last time. So maybe a resurgent Shin, who was fairly close with Altick last match? Or a Blake, who is in great form and will be looking to avenge her worst loss of the season? Both are big asks, but it’s possible. 

We’ve turned around 7-0 wins before. A few years ago, we lost 7-0 to Vandy in Nashville before beating them in the NCAA championship match a couple months later. This is a little sooner, but why not?

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - Spiny_Norman - 03-07-2020

Showers in the area today. Start of the UCLA match postponed to 3 pm (weather permitting).

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - Spiny_Norman - 03-07-2020

Stanford gets rolled on the doubles point. Lost #1 6-1 and #3 6-0. On to singles.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - Lorcan - 03-07-2020

1. Gordon *2-3
2. Arbuthnott 1-4*
3. Blake *5-0
4. Shin *1-4
5. Choy 3-2*
6. Higuchi 4-1*

Somehow we've got to find 4 points from these. Blake and Higuchi off to great starts.
It's not looking promising out there. Hopefully Choy and Gordon can hang in there. 

1. Gordon *3-4
2. Arbuthnott 1-6
3. Blake 6-0 *0-1
4. Shin *2-5
5. Choy 3-4*
6. Higuchi 5-2*

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - oldalum - 03-07-2020

(03-07-2020, 05:38 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:  Stanford gets rolled on the doubles point. Lost #1 6-1 and #3 6-0. On to singles.
at least we didn't get completely bageled

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - Lorcan - 03-07-2020

Gordon up a break in the second, and Arbuthnott fighting back in this second set. Choy falls in an incredibly close first set.

1. Gordon 4-6 *2-1
2. Arbuthnott 1-6 3-3*
3. Blake 6-0 *5-4
4. Shin 3-6 *1-3
5. Choy 6-7 (8)
6. Higuchi 6-4 2-1*

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - oldalum - 03-07-2020

Blake holds at deuce point for the win! We are tied 1-1!

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-07-2020

Angelica Blake, ladies and gentlemen!

And don’t sleep on Arbuthnott fighting back and trying to force a third set. Shin is cooked, but the rest of our players are all in this.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-07-2020

Sigh. After Arbuthnott lost her second-set tiebreaker to make it 3-1 UCLA, Choy fell 7-6, 6-4 and that’s that. Gordon was up 4-1 in her third, and Higuchi was up 2-1 in hers, so if Emily or Sara could have just forced a third, I like our chances. Man, we had hope there for a minute. We can beat this team at Pac-12s, I’m telling you. It’ll be close as all get out, but it’s possible.
I'm mostly just bummed for Michaela, who was on the verge of notching a top 10 win. She's not going to get many chances at wins like that in the Pac-12, and she was doing her part. Sigh....

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-12-2020

Well, we won't have to see what a down year looks like after all, as all remaining NCAA championships have been cancelled. Just wild. 

One wonders whether the NCAA will give waivers and scholarship number exceptions for the winter and spring sport athletes who otherwise would've exhausted eligibility this year. If not, this is brutal for schools like UNC, who have been building towards this season for the last three years. 

Heartbreaking to think that this is how the Stanford careers of Emily Arbuthnott and Emma Higuchi end.

RE: Women's Tennis: St. Mary's, USC, and UCLA - ColoradoTree - 03-13-2020

Not that it matters much right now, but Stanford climbed from #9 to #6 in the latest rankings, even after losing to UCLA. Losses to good teams just don't hurt that much. (Helps that UCLA is ranked #3.)

Texas is #4, so that road win over them is doing a lot of work for Stanford's ranking. 

(Of course, the season is done now anyway, but out of a desire for completeness, I figured I'd let you know where they landed. I doubt there will be future rankings if no matches are held.)