Bowl projections - Printable Version

Bowl projections - Printable Version

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Bowl projections - BostonCard - 07-08-2019

https://athlonsports.com/bowl-projections-2019?amp

Athlon pics is to go to Vegas, baby!

BC

RE: Bowl projections - Papa John - 07-08-2019

Well, let's see...

We're picked fourth in the Pac-12 North, and we don't crack the top 6 in the conference in RB units, WR units, OL units, LB units and DB units, but make #5 in the conference at DL units.

Our projected regular season record is 7-5 (5-4). Stanford is ranked #34 out of 130 teams, and our coach is ranked #17 overall, #4 in the Pac-12 (behind Whittingham, Leach and Petersen).

I think this means that Stanford is returning to the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2020.

RE: Bowl projections - terry - 07-08-2019

(07-08-2019, 03:43 PM)Papa John Wrote: our coach is ranked #17 overall, #4 in the Pac-12 (behind Whittingham, Leach and Petersen).

This made me wonder about how this rating stacks up against the historical record. It turns out that Shaw has won 4 Pac-12 Coach of the Year awards. Whittingham, Leach, and Petersen have won a combined total of 2 COY awards. Also, Shaw has won 3 Pac-12 championships, compared to a combined total of 2 championships for Whittingham, Leach, and Petersen.

RE: Bowl projections - BostonCard - 07-08-2019

Here's the Pac-12 write-up

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/pac-12-football-2019-predictions

BC

RE: Bowl projections - JJJ - 07-08-2019

And here's Phil Steele (doesn't merit a new thread, does it?). 3rd toughest schedule, ranked #22:

https://247sports.com/college/alabama/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-2019-phil-steele-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Texas-Longhorns-Oklahoma-Sooners-133474325/#133474325_1

RE: Bowl projections - BostonCard - 07-08-2019

Quite the contrast between Athlon and Steele. While Athlon only ranks one of our units in the top half of the Pac-12, Steele says:

Quote:Stanford has all-around strength at various position groups, Steele says. "They are actually one of nine teams to rank in my top units in all eight categories. Never discount David Shaw's chances of winning the Pac-12 North."

Here's my assessment of the various units:
OL: High individual ceilings; has not shown that the unit can operate cohesively; little depth
RB: Love's graduation leaves big shoes to fill; Scarlett is only back with significant experience, but a question mark if he can become the go to starter. Behind him there is potential but little experience
WR: High potential and depth; little returning production
TE: Parkinson has the potential to be an elite receiving talent and major mismatch; unproven depth behind him
QB: Costello has experience and is coming off a very good season. I've expressed some concerns about how well he will work with the new receivers. Back-ups have ? (Mills' health, West's ability)
DL: Best combination of talent, depth, and experience in years; should be strength of the team
LBs: OLB's have talent, experience, and depth; ILB's don't
DBs: Same as LB unit; CB's could be elite; Safeties could be a problem

Overall, 7-5 (5-4) and Vegas bowl smacks me as about right. Question marks at OL, and holes at RB, LB, DB hold back what should be an above average to excellent passing attack and a fierce D-line.

BC

RE: Bowl projections - winflop - 07-09-2019

(07-08-2019, 09:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Here's my assessment of the various units:
OL: High individual ceilings; has not shown that the unit can operate cohesively; little depth
RB: Love's graduation leaves big shoes to fill; Scarlett is only back with significant experience, but a question mark if he can become the go to starter. Behind him there is potential but little experience
WR: High potential and depth; little returning production
TE: Parkinson has the potential to be an elite receiving talent and major mismatch; unproven depth behind him
QB: Costello has experience and is coming off a very good season. I've expressed some concerns about how well he will work with the new receivers. Back-ups have ? (Mills' health, West's ability)
DL: Best combination of talent, depth, and experience in years; should be strength of the team
LBs: OLB's have talent, experience, and depth; ILB's don't
DBs: Same as LB unit; CB's could be elite; Safeties could be a problem

Overall, 7-5 (5-4) and Vegas bowl smacks me as about right. Question marks at OL, and holes at RB, LB, DB hold back what should be an above average to excellent passing attack and a fierce D-line.

BC

Agree with BC on 7-5.
OL: Agree with BC Lots of raw talent, but that's not enough. This unit needs to gel this year or Carberry needs to go
RB: If Scarlett gets the majority of snaps we're in trouble. Complete lack of breakaway speed means you can cheat on him if he breaks through the line because DBs can easily catch up with him
WR: Agree with BC on high potential and depth but we have no idea how they will handle game play
TE: Parkinson is a great receiver and brobdingnagian matchup problem there but his blocking is subpar at best. Is there any TE on the roster that justifies #TightEndU? I don't see one.
QB: It's the KJ show and that's it. Nobody behind him who can effectively run the offense at a decent level
DL: I hope BC is right but I'm not convinced. NT remains a concern.
LBs: ILB is a liability that should have been forseen & addressed two years ago via recruiting. Shame on Coach Anderson
DBs: Adebo is awesome but the rest leave much to be desired. That Antoine is penciled in as a starter is NOT a good sign for safeties

Looks like a rebuilding year

RE: Bowl projections - slide - 07-09-2019

Hansen is the ILB coach and responsible for recruitment of them as well.

RE: Bowl projections - BostonCard - 07-09-2019

(07-09-2019, 07:23 AM)winflop Wrote: Agree with BC on 7-5.

...

Looks like a rebuilding year

I'm glad we are at the level where a rebuilding year results in expectations for a 7-5 season.

BC

RE: Bowl projections - CornFed - 07-09-2019

(07-09-2019, 08:17 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(07-09-2019, 07:23 AM)winflop Wrote: Agree with BC on 7-5.

...

Looks like a rebuilding year

I'm glad we are at the level where a rebuilding year results in expectations for a 7-5 season.

BC

Expectations are premeditated resentments. lol

RE: Bowl projections - pcgoode - 07-09-2019

For RB, wouldn't surprise me if we saw some sort of rotation at the beginning of the year. Will be interesting to see how quickly Austin Jones sees the field - his pedigree in HS was about as good as it gets: Napoleon Kaufman as head coach, and Tommy Vardell as RB coach.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/29/bng-l-bodstan-0629/

RE: Bowl projections - terry - 07-09-2019

My top concern is the offensive line. The OL's decline last year was alarming to me. After years of having a very good running game, we suddenly were unable to run the ball. I blame the OL. That really needs to change.

RE: Bowl projections - martyup - 07-09-2019

10-2

RE: Bowl projections - Papa John - 07-09-2019

FWIW, I consider 7-5 (5-4) to be at the low end of my expectations. I'm predicting 9-3 (7-2). I'm not saying that we'll win the North but we'll be in the running, no worse than second.

ESPN's FPI has the following predictions for Stanford and its 2019 opponents:
Stanford #33, projected W-L 6.2-5.9 (way too pessimistic IMO!)

Northwestern #52 (74.6% win probability per FPI)
USC #25 (34.7%)
UCF #34 (35.6%)
Oregon #10 (32.4%)
Oregon State #84 (72.9%)
Washington #17 (42.0%)
UCLA #20 (45.5%)
Arizona #51 (71.3%)
Colorado #63 (65.3%)
Washington State #30 (38.4%)
Cal #55 (72.5%)
Notre Dame #7 (32.2%)

I'm predicting wins over NW, UCF, OSU, UCLA, UA, CU and Cal, with 2 out of 3 between USC, UW and UO. Losses to WSU (Pullman in November versus the Pirate--no thank you) and ND.

RE: Bowl projections - Mick - 07-09-2019

(07-09-2019, 12:48 PM)terry Wrote: My top concern is the offensive line. The OL's decline last year was alarming to me. After years of having a very good running game, we suddenly were unable to run the ball. I blame the OL. That really needs to change.

+1. Very alarming development, and why I think we're headed for 6-6.

RE: Bowl projections - qwerty49 - 07-09-2019

(07-09-2019, 09:15 PM)Mick Wrote:
(07-09-2019, 12:48 PM)terry Wrote: My top concern is the offensive line. The OL's decline last year was alarming to me. After years of having a very good running game, we suddenly were unable to run the ball. I blame the OL. That really needs to change.

+1. Very alarming development, and why I think we're headed for 6-6.

I'm a well-known Gloomy Gus. At least 6-6 gives us a shot at a bowl. If we don't stay healthy we could be headed for 5-7. I put the over-under for wins at 5.5

We need to be able to run, and to stop the run. Two very big ifs, IMHO.

RE: Bowl projections -- Pass First - ADPinWDC - 07-10-2019

Last year was two different seasons, once Shaw relented on the Run game, and we became a PASS FIRST team.
-- Finished SECOND in Pac12 in passing, and 11th in rushing. Stark contrast.
With Costello (and Mills with Tanner McKee after that) and with a VERY STRONG pipeline of WRs, we are making the shift: THROW.
Throwing the ball will open the run. Shaw said it mid-season, "We were pass-blocking a lot better than run blocking."

In post-game comments, Shaw showed a LOT of confidence in Costello as the season matured. We start where we left off: THROW.

Maybe some Frosh play: Elijah Higgins (WR); if there are questions at RB, give Austin Jones some reps.
Bryce played as a Frosh (jet sweeps), so did McCaffrey a bit, more at slot back.

The other reason to THROW is in MORE games this year we may need to come from behind.

RE: Bowl projections -- Pass First - Mick - 07-10-2019

(07-10-2019, 05:54 AM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Last year was two different seasons, once Shaw relented on the Run game, and we became a PASS FIRST team.
-- Finished SECOND in Pac12 in passing, and 11th in rushing. Stark contrast.
With Costello (and Mills with Tanner McKee after that) and with a VERY STRONG pipeline of WRs, we are making the shift: THROW.
Throwing the ball will open the run. Shaw said it mid-season, "We were pass-blocking a lot better than run blocking."

In post-game comments, Shaw showed a LOT of confidence in Costello as the season matured. We start where we left off: THROW.

Maybe some Frosh play: Elijah Higgins (WR); if there are questions at RB, give Austin Jones some reps.
Bryce played as a Frosh (jet sweeps), so did McCaffrey a bit, more at slot back.

The other reason to THROW is in MORE games this year we may need to come from behind.

It's always been fun to be a fan of Quarterback U. Elway, Luck, Plunkett, Brodie, Dils, Benjamin, Husak, Schonert, Bunce, Edwards, Albert, Boryla, Stenstrom, Paye, Garrett, Johnson, Norman, Horn, Kerkorian, Cordova, Gustafson, Hutchinson, Fasani, Lewis, Borchard, Hogan and Costello.

Trivia question: Without peeking, and your best guess, how many Stanford quarterbacks have had a season in the Top 25 in Pac-12 history for single season passing yardage?

RE: Bowl projections - BobK - 07-10-2019

Pac 12 only?
Luck
Costello

RE: Bowl projections - Spiny_Norman - 07-10-2019

My guess - zero Stanford QBs. Every school is more pass-happy recently. Most of the top 25 probably from the past 10 years.

But how many of those in the top 25 single season for passing yards played in a Rose Bowl? My guess - maybe one. Marcus Mariota.