NCAA Championship Baseball Super Regional

NCAA Championship Baseball Super Regional - Printable Version

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Baseball Super Regional - BobK - 06-04-2019

Off to Starkville.
Per ESPN we start Saturday Noon our time. I imagine hot and humid

Given that our starters have seen 6 days of rest between starts maybe we see
Mathiessen
Miller
Beck

In that order.

Plan on a full day to get there from the Bay Area. TV for me

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Hulk01 - 06-04-2019

Mississippi State has a ridiculous ace starter, Small, and a nine deep batting order
with a good pitch hitter to boot.

Their ace has 160 stikes and 27 walks in 96 innings.
Hasn't given up more than three runs in any game.
1.88 ERA.
Chosen in the draft one spot behind Fresno State's ace, Ryan Jensen.

Their top three pitchers have combined
for 324 strikeouts in 225 innings.
Yikes.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - BigEasyCard - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 07:55 AM)BobK Wrote: Off to Starkville.
Per ESPN we start Saturday Noon our time. I imagine hot and humid

Given that our starters have seen 6 days of rest between starts maybe we see
Mathiessen
Miller
Beck

In that order.

Plan on a full day to get there from the Bay Area. TV for me

TV for me too. 4.5 to 5 hour drive from New Orleans and very limited ticket availability. Here's the full TV schedule from USA Today with times in local zone (Central):

GAME 1: Saturday, June 8, 2 p.m. CT (ESPN 2)
GAME 2: Sunday, June 9, 8 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
GAME 3 (if necessary): Monday, June 10, 6 p.m. CT (ESPN2)

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: Baseball Super Regional - OutsiderFan - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 08:27 AM)Hulk01 Wrote: Mississippi State has a ridiculous ace starter, Small, and a nine deep batting order
with a good pitch hitter to boot.

Their ace has 160 stikes and 27 walks in 96 innings.
Hasn't given up more than three runs in any game.
1.88 ERA.
Chosen in the draft one spot behind Fresno State's ace, Ryan Jensen.

Their top three pitchers have combined
for 324 strikeouts in 225 innings.
Yikes.

So you're saying Stanford has no chance?

RE: Baseball Super Regional - terry - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 07:55 AM)BobK Wrote: Given that our starters have seen 6 days of rest between starts maybe we see
Mathiessen
Miller
Beck

In that order.

Do you think Esquer will save Beck for a Game 3 that may never happen?

RE: Baseball Super Regional - CTcard - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 07:55 AM)BobK Wrote: Off to Starkville.
Per ESPN we start Saturday Noon our time. I imagine hot and humid

As of this moment, the forecast for Starkville is:
Saturday - 82, thunderstorms, 85% humidity
Sunday - 84, thunderstorms, 82% humidity
Monday - 85, isolated thunderstorms, 75% humidity

In fact, thunderstorms are forecast at some level every day now through Monday - lots of rain Thursday and Friday.

Quote:Given that our starters have seen 6 days of rest between starts maybe we see
Mathiessen
Miller
Beck

In that order.

That would make sense from the rest side.
However, I think the coaches don't want to go down without Beck getting a shot, and I think they see Matthiessen as third of those three.
So, as a possible alternative maybe it would be Miller - win, Matthiesse/loss Beck - the other of Matthiessen/Beck.
But I am probably imagining excessive scheming from the staff.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Farm93 - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 09:38 AM)CTcard Wrote: As of this moment, the forecast for Starkville is:
Saturday - 82, thunderstorms, 85% humidity
Sunday - 84, thunderstorms, 82% humidity
Monday - 85, isolated thunderstorms, 75% humidity

In fact, thunderstorms are forecast at some level every day now through Monday - lots of rain Thursday and Friday.

That is going to be the forecast for most towns east of the Mississippi this time of year. Thunderstorms can pop up on literally any day, and normally can be over in minutes or an hour or two.

It is hard on pitchers, but is pretty much the way it is in most of the USA in June.

Very confident those games will get completed at some point on their scheduled days. That 8PM local Sunday start could get a thunderstorm mid game delay with the game ultimately ending well after midnight.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - terry - 06-04-2019

Some notes about the super-regional field --

- 12 of the 16 regional #1 seeds advanced to the super-regionals. The four #1 seeds that did not advance were Georgia Tech (#3 national seed), Georgia (#4 national), West Virginia (#15 national), and Oregon St. (#16 national).

- 7 of the #1 seeds did not lose a game, advancing with 3 straight wins (Mississippi St., Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas Tech, LSU, Vanderbilt, Mississippi).

- 5 of the #1 seeds lost a game and advanced by winning one or more elimination games. East Carolina lost its opener then won 4 straight. Stanford, UCLA, and Louisville lost their second games then won 3 straight. Oklahoma St. lost its third game then won once to advance.

- The super-regional field includes 12 #1 seeds, one #2 seed (Auburn), and three #3 seeds (Michigan, Duke, Florida St.).

RE: Baseball Super Regional - CTcard - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 08:27 AM)Hulk01 Wrote: Mississippi State has a ridiculous ace starter, Small,

Their top three pitchers have combined
for 324 strikeouts in 225 innings.

Small was taken by the Brewers as pick #28.
He's known for a fastball high-80s to low 90s with deceptive delivery and a top level changeup.
[That sounds a little like Fresno relief pitcher Carvajal who gave Stanford so much trouble over the weekend. I don't think Carvajal's fastball has that much velocity, but he had a plus changeup which killed our power guys.]

MSU's day two starter (he was used in game 1 in the regional) is frosh JT Ginn. He was a notable prospect last year as a 19 year old HS senior drafted #30 by the Dodgers. He has a fastball up to high 90s and a good slider. 8-4 this year with a 3.36 ERA.

MSU's day three starter is Peyton Plumlee, an actual senior. He didn't pitch last year due to a drug test suspension. He doesn't seem to be a major prospect and I cannot find a decent scouting report on him. He was 6-4 on the year with a 3.87 ERA.

It looks like Plumlee and Ginn have switched around day 2/3 starts, but I think that was their rotation towards the end of the season.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - OutsiderFan - 06-04-2019

The Dew Point is the only number that matters. And the higher the number, the more moisture in air leads to more rain chances.

Below 60 is comfy
Between 60-65 is muggy
Between 65-70 starts to get uncomfortable
Anything above 70 is oppressive

Start times and projected Dew Points:

Sat. 2pm - 73
Sun. 8pm - 72
Mon. 6pm - 70

Looking at the forecast, don't know how they are gonna play on Saturday. There is a 50%+ chance of rain for virtually every day light hour of Saturday, and Sunday, every hour has at least a 50% chance of rain forecasted. Maybe they can get the game in Saturday night. But even then it could be dicey with rain delays. I wouldn't be surprised if Game 2 in played on Monday. If it goes into Tuesday, Dew Points drop into the mid 60s. It's gonna suck to be a fan attending this event.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Hulk01 - 06-04-2019

My thought is the key is to get to game three.
Mississippi State has allowed 6.4 runs a game
with their third starters,
eight per game in their last three.

Their game one starter looks overwhelming.
If we drop that game,
I'd start Miller in that must-win game two.

We can match up with the Bulldogs game three starter--
go with Matthiesen with a short leash,
then the pen.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Farm93 - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 10:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Dew Point is the only number that matters. And the higher the number, the more moisture in air leads to more rain chances.

Below 60 is comfy
Between 60-65 is muggy
Between 65-70 starts to get uncomfortable
Anything above 70 is oppressive

Start times and projected Dew Points:

Sat. 2pm - 73
Sun. 8pm - 72
Mon. 6pm - 70

Looking at the forecast, don't know how they are gonna play on Saturday. There is a 50%+ chance of rain for virtually every day light hour of Saturday, and Sunday, every hour has at least a 50% chance of rain forecasted. Maybe they can get the game in Saturday night. But even then it could be dicey with rain delays. I wouldn't be surprised if Game 2 in played on Monday. If it goes into Tuesday, Dew Points drop into the mid 60s. It's gonna suck to be a fan attending this event.

Hazy, Hot and Humid with a chance of afternoon or early evening thundershowers? Yawn!
May take all day, but with only one game a day these will happen. They only need 4 or 5 rain-free hours each day. So a 50% chance of rain in an individual hour means a 50% chance of play that hour. Friday looks worse, but that might be why this region was slated for that Saturday start.

I would guess if they really lost Saturday to weather they would squeeze in a double header on Sunday or Monday.

"It's gonna suck to be a fan attending this event." - Ummmm, I guess this says something about living in Mississippi, but for those living in Mississippi it will just be a typical weekend watching an SEC team in their beloved state.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Bob23MS - 06-04-2019

First off, congrats on the regional win. You guys battled last night and overcame adversity all weekend. I was able to watch most of the second Fresno ST game and Stanford looks like a gritty baseball team. As a Mississippi State fan, I'm looking forward to seeing one of college baseballs best programs at DNF.

Offensively, this MSU team has a balance of experienced battle tested players and a good bit of FR/SO talent. Our lineup is very aggressive at the plate and will swing early in counts. That can be both a strength and a weakness. We can get ourselves out early in counts if you use the aggressiveness against us. The lineup is very balanced in terms of power/average/speed. That said, our lineup goes as Jake Mangum goes.

On the mound, we rely on establishing plus counts and will pound the zone with fastballs. Ethan Small throws fastballs at a 80% clip and does a great job changing the eye level using fastballs up in the zone. He is very deceptive and lives at 88-93....though he hit 96 a few times Friday. Ginn has elite stuff but had to be pulled from Friday's game because of "soreness." He missed two starts earlier in the year for the same cause. That said, our coaching staff is being very cautious and his status going into the week is unknown. I personally think he will pitch Game 3. Plumlee, our #3 starter, has been very good. It would not shock me to see him get the nod in game 2. Out of the pen, we will rely on a mix of sinker ballers, cutters, and power. Our most reliable have been Gordon and Liebelt.

I've included a link to our baseball stats/schedule information in the event you're curious. I've also included a link to our official baseball Twitter account which will keep you up to date on regional information.

https://hailstate.com/sports/2007/6/26/944260.aspx
https://twitter.com/HailStateBB?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

If any of you have specific questions related to our lineup/pitchers, post them here. And if you find yourself in Starkville on Satuday, I hope you have an enjoyable experience. It is a unique place to watch a baseball game. I'm looking forward to a fun series.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - CTcard - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 10:38 AM)Hulk01 Wrote: My thought is the key is to get to game three.
Mississippi State has allowed 6.4 runs a game
with their third starters,
eight per game in their last three.

Their game one starter looks overwhelming.
If we drop that game,
I'd start Miller in that must-win game two.

We can match up with the Bulldogs game three starter--
go with Matthiesen with a short leash,
then the pen.

I agree that our chances will look much better if we get to game three, as we should finally find a reasonable pitching match up there.

Your comments make me think you believe Beck will go Saturday. While I guess the most likely senario, I am a little concerned about that. It would be 4 days rest after pitching 36 pitches on 2 days rest (after pitching 101). He's used to 6 days rest.

[ By the way - Beck's performance on Monday was probably the best I have ever seen from him. 3.1 perfect innings against a team that at that moment seemed to be on a roll. And that was following a great performance Friday (7.0 innings, 3 hits, no runs). ]

One could go Miller game 1 (one day less rest than normal), Beck game 2 (one game less rest than normal), Matthiessen plus Williams plus everybody Monday (one day extra rest for Matthiessen).

RE: Baseball Super Regional - OutsiderFan - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 11:29 AM)Farm93 Wrote:
(06-04-2019, 10:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Dew Point is the only number that matters. And the higher the number, the more moisture in air leads to more rain chances.

Below 60 is comfy
Between 60-65 is muggy
Between 65-70 starts to get uncomfortable
Anything above 70 is oppressive

Start times and projected Dew Points:

Sat. 2pm - 73
Sun. 8pm - 72
Mon. 6pm - 70

Looking at the forecast, don't know how they are gonna play on Saturday. There is a 50%+ chance of rain for virtually every day light hour of Saturday, and Sunday, every hour has at least a 50% chance of rain forecasted. Maybe they can get the game in Saturday night. But even then it could be dicey with rain delays. I wouldn't be surprised if Game 2 in played on Monday. If it goes into Tuesday, Dew Points drop into the mid 60s. It's gonna suck to be a fan attending this event.

Hazy, Hot and Humid with a chance of afternoon or early evening thundershowers? Yawn!
May take all day, but with only one game a day these will happen. They only need 4 or 5 rain-free hours each day. So a 50% chance of rain in an individual hour means a 50% chance of play that hour. Friday looks worse, but that might be why this region was slated for that Saturday start.

I would guess if they really lost Saturday to weather they would squeeze in a double header on Sunday or Monday.

"It's gonna suck to be a fan attending this event." - Ummmm, I guess this says something about living in Mississippi, but for those living in Mississippi it will just be a typical weekend watching an SEC team in their beloved state.

My point: It's all the not knowing when the games will be played, sitting through rain with unknown delays. This isn't like a MLB season where if a game can't be played, they play the next scheduled game and re-schedule the lost one to another time. The projection is for more consistent rain potential than is usually the case. Hopefully as the weekend comes closer and the forecast tightens up, the chances of rain will coalesce around a few times of day, leaving more consecutive hours of rain free weather.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Stanford2020 - 06-04-2019

Any team can win any game at this point. MSU is probably the better team on paper, but they had a much easier road here in my eyes (Southern University, Central Michigan, and Miami) and really fell flat in the SEC tournament, losing to Vanderbilt 1-0 and LSU 12-2. Go out swinging, stop making stupid mistakes on the base paths, and get to Omaha.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - Hulk01 - 06-04-2019

I'm tempted by the approach I favored in the Wake golf match:
Toss our "bottom player"--Daulet in golf, Will Math our third starter in baseball--
against the opponent's ace,

Then get favorable match up in Miller, our best starting pitcher this season,
against their number two,
then throw Beck--with the advantage now of extra rest--
against the Bulldogs third starter,
a slot where the Bulldogs have surrendered a lot of runs--around 6.5 per game--
this season.

Their ace looks so good I'm taking my chances
on getting wins in game two and then three.
If we throw out Miller in game and lose against their ace,
we know put Matthiesen (or Williams) in must win situations in game two.
I want Miller or Beck in that position instead.

Just my casual fan's thought.
That, and keep pressing on the base paths--
bunt, steals and double steals, taking the extra base.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - StanfordMatt - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 11:37 AM)CTcard Wrote: Your comments make me think you believe Beck will go Saturday. While I guess the most likely senario, I am a little concerned about that. It would be 4 days rest after pitching 36 pitches on 2 days rest (after pitching 101). He's used to 6 days rest.

Looks like we have ourselves another pearl clutcher, Outsider!

CT - Beck will be fine starting Game 1. If his arm starts to hurt he can always rub some dirt on it.

RE: Baseball Super Regional - BobK - 06-04-2019

Excellent thoughts Hulk. Going to be interesting what Esquer does

An added point to Small. He was rated as having the best change up among college pitchers in the draft

RE: Baseball Super Regional - CTcard - 06-04-2019

(06-04-2019, 12:43 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:
(06-04-2019, 11:37 AM)CTcard Wrote: Your comments make me think you believe Beck will go Saturday. While I guess the most likely senario, I am a little concerned about that. It would be 4 days rest after pitching 36 pitches on 2 days rest (after pitching 101). He's used to 6 days rest.
Looks like we have ourselves another pearl clutcher, Outsider!

I may be, but just to make sure I am clear on which pearls I am clutching ...

From everything I know, I don't believe that Beck has put himself into any kind of long term arm-health problem by his single foray into an extra 36 pitches on 2 days rest. And at least most likely, a 4 day rest after 36 pitches is also fine on that score.

What I am somewhat concerned about for the coming weekend is what preparation is likely to have Beck at his best. Typically, I would think that sticking as close to one's normal routine as possible would be beneficial. On the other hand, entering a game in relief after 2 days rest is clearly not Beck's normal routine and he possibly just put up the best performance of his career.

I absolutely don't know any specifics of what is the best preparation for Beck. I hope our staff does.