Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - Printable Version
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Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - muiron - 10-13-2018
Win out and we're the North champs.
Granted, "win out" doesn't seem likely but it's not impossible. We are 2-1 in conference (ND doesn't count, neither do style points). UW, UO, and WSU also have one loss. We have the head to head tie breaker over UO. If we win out, that's all we'll need, as we'll give UW and WSU a second loss. Note, though, that if beat UW and WSU and lose only one more game, all we need is a UO loss to have the tie breaker among the not more than 4 North teams with two losses. And UW has some tough road games coming up - at WSU, at UA, at Utah.
This sucker isn't over yet. (IF we can find an offensive line.)
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - Hurlburt88 - 10-14-2018
Well said, and seasons always have twists and turns. I am sure the coaches & team are working hard at laying the foundation for an upturn this Thursday . . . I'll be watching with anticipation!
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - JPR36 - 10-14-2018
Maybe the 2016 game up there is dominating my thought patterns too much, but going into the season I thought the game we were least likely to win was Washington in Seattle, and I was hoping we could win the rest of our conference games so a loss up there could still put us in the CCG. Nothing has happened since then to make me change that feeling.
BTW Washington has only two more road games, Kal and Wazzu. I think them losing either of those is unlikely.
We'll see what happens though. Maybe we can have another 2012 Oregon type upset in Seattle.
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - cardcrimson - 10-14-2018
Hope springs eternal. . . .
right up until we go three and out on our first drive against ASU after two runs between the tackles then an incompletion on a pass that would have been short of the marker anyway.
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - JPR36 - 10-14-2018
(10-14-2018, 08:48 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Hope springs eternal. . . .
right up until we go three and out on our first drive against ASU after two runs between the tackles then an incompletion on a pass that would have been short of the marker anyway.
Yeah, we need a nice, convincing victory over the Solar Satans to shake everyone out of their cynicism.
CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 10-16-2018
Here's another angle to this. Even if we lose on Thursday @ ASU, we still control our own destiny with respect to WASH and WSU and would only need one Oregon loss (presumably to WSU?) to win all the head-to-head and multi-way tie-breakers. Crazy, right?
That's because both of our losses would be in the South, and everyone else would also have two losses with at least one loss in the North (to us).
EDIT: looking more closely, I see that's essentially muiron was saying above. My bad!
It's a ridiculous hypothetical case, because if we can't beat ASU, then we'll have no business running the table in the North. And in any case, we are going to WIN this Thurs. Probably without the Big Island and Bryce. Right?!
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - BostonCard - 10-16-2018
(10-13-2018, 11:21 PM)muiron Wrote: Win out and we're the North champs.
Granted, "win out" doesn't seem likely but it's not impossible. We are 2-1 in conference (ND doesn't count, neither do style points). UW, UO, and WSU also have one loss. We have the head to head tie breaker over UO. If we win out, that's all we'll need, as we'll give UW and WSU a second loss. Note, though, that if beat UW and WSU and lose only one more game, all we need is a UO loss to have the tie breaker among the not more than 4 North teams with two losses. And UW has some tough road games coming up - at WSU, at UA, at Utah.
This sucker isn't over yet. (IF we can find an offensive line.)
Note, we controlled our destiny even before Oregon beat Washington.
Here is the interesting thing... WSU and Stanford are the only teams in the North who control their own destiny. Oregon would need to win out and have us lose at least one more game, while Washington would need to win out and hope Oregon loses at least one more game.
There will be a lot more clarity in the next three weeks weeks.
WSU plays Oregon (at home) and at Stanford
Stanford plays WSU and then at UW (after ASU)
UW will host Stanford
And if things are still unsettled after that, WSU hosts UW in the last week of the season
BC
CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 10-16-2018
(10-16-2018, 04:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Note, we controlled our destiny even before Oregon beat Washington.
Here is the interesting thing... WSU and Stanford are the only teams in the North who control their own destiny. Oregon would need to win out and have us lose at least one more game, while Washington would need to win out and hope Oregon loses at least one more game.
There will be a lot more clarity in the next three weeks weeks.
WSU plays Oregon (at home) and at Stanford
Stanford plays WSU and then at UW (after ASU)
UW will host Stanford
And if things are still unsettled after that, WSU hosts UW in the last week of the season
BC
Yep. Boiling it down one more time - although there are still too many scenarios to say for sure:
1) We need to beat whichever team ends up winning the Apple Cup. (beating both would count, too!)
2) If we lose a game (likely), we need Oregon to lose a game.
With this in mind, do we like Oregon or WSU this weekend? If we lose at ASU, then we clearly prefer WSU over Oregon. But if/when we win at ASU, it becomes hard to say...
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - winflop - 10-16-2018
(10-13-2018, 11:21 PM)muiron Wrote: Win out and we're the North champs.
I'll be happy with 1-0 this week
RE: CardinalSagehen - d4cohn - 10-16-2018
(10-16-2018, 05:37 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:(10-16-2018, 04:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Note, we controlled our destiny even before Oregon beat Washington.
Here is the interesting thing... WSU and Stanford are the only teams in the North who control their own destiny. Oregon would need to win out and have us lose at least one more game, while Washington would need to win out and hope Oregon loses at least one more game.
There will be a lot more clarity in the next three weeks weeks.
WSU plays Oregon (at home) and at Stanford
Stanford plays WSU and then at UW (after ASU)
UW will host Stanford
And if things are still unsettled after that, WSU hosts UW in the last week of the season
BC
Yep. Boiling it down one more time - although there are still too many scenarios to say for sure:
1) We need to beat whichever team ends up winning the Apple Cup. (beating both would count, too!)
2) If we lose a game (likely), we need Oregon to lose a game.
With this in mind, do we like Oregon or WSU this weekend? If we lose at ASU, then we clearly prefer WSU over Oregon. But if/when we win at ASU, it becomes hard to say...
We definitely want Oregon to lose on the road at Wazzu. We get Wazzu at home. And we almost undoubtedly want a UW loss at Wazzu in the Apple Cup too.
CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 10-17-2018
(10-16-2018, 09:37 PM)d4cohn Wrote: We definitely want Oregon to lose on the road at Wazzu. We get Wazzu at home. And we almost undoubtedly want a UW loss at Wazzu in the Apple Cup too.
Maybe so. I don't think it's quite so cut and dried, as Oregon could very easily win this game and lose one of its other 5 remaining games, including a tough one at Utah. I do not think they are likely to finish 11-1.
In addition, no team and coaching staff has owned us over the last few years more than Wazzu, so it might come in handy if Oregon hangs another "L" on them and gives us a little leeway to have our loss come against Wazzu.
All of that said, I am doing what I promised myself I would not do after the Utah game... very naively and prematurely conjuring Pac 12 championship scenarios, before we start to see the team actually playing better. I guess that's just what we fans do. If we play well tomorrow, I will probably be back to conjuring more scenarios, full-throttle!
RE: CardinalSagehen - Austroturf - 10-17-2018
(10-17-2018, 02:00 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:Yes, I am with you on this. David Shaw has flouted my most pessimistic prognoses so often that I expect him to do it again and achieve something none of us currently envisions. I imagine him smugly declaring (after our 27-10 CCG victory against Utah) that so many fans gave up on the team after the two losses in mid-season and that he, as always, never had any doubt and knew that the team would respond positively in the face of adversity. I would love to see that press conference. I ache to have him prove my pessimism wrong again. But I am not quite sure it will happen this time. Just not convinced. But I am also not yet giving up hope....(10-16-2018, 09:37 PM)d4cohn Wrote: We definitely want Oregon to lose on the road at Wazzu. We get Wazzu at home. And we almost undoubtedly want a UW loss at Wazzu in the Apple Cup too.
Maybe so. I don't think it's quite so cut and dried, as Oregon could very easily win this game and lose one of its other 5 remaining games, including a tough one at Utah. I do not think they are likely to finish 11-1.
In addition, no team and coaching staff has owned us over the last few years more than Wazzu, so it might come in handy if Oregon hangs another "L" on them and gives us a little leeway to have our loss come against Wazzu.
All of that said, I am doing what I promised myself I would not do after the Utah game... very naively and prematurely conjuring Pac 12 championship scenarios, before we start to see the team actually playing better. I guess that's just what we fans do. If we play well tomorrow, I will probably be back to conjuring more scenarios, full-throttle!
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - cardcrimson - 10-18-2018
(10-14-2018, 08:48 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Hope springs eternal. . . .I admit. I was wrong on Sunday. After two runs between the tackles we threw a completion three yards short of the marker. Good grief.
right up until we go three and out on our first drive against ASU after two runs between the tackles then an incompletion on a pass that would have been short of the marker anyway.
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - Langdude - 10-19-2018
(10-18-2018, 06:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(10-14-2018, 08:48 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Hope springs eternal. . . .I admit. I was wrong on Sunday. After two runs between the tackles we threw a completion three yards short of the marker. Good grief.
right up until we go three and out on our first drive against ASU after two runs between the tackles then an incompletion on a pass that would have been short of the marker anyway.
I was actually thinking about this post on that opening series. Wow. Nice, CC. You should go to Vegas! Not that it takes a tremendous amount of skill to predict what Stanford will do on offense.
-m.
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - cardcrimson - 10-20-2018
(10-19-2018, 09:48 PM)Langdude Wrote:(10-18-2018, 06:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(10-14-2018, 08:48 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Hope springs eternal. . . .I admit. I was wrong on Sunday. After two runs between the tackles we threw a completion three yards short of the marker. Good grief.
right up until we go three and out on our first drive against ASU after two runs between the tackles then an incompletion on a pass that would have been short of the marker anyway.
I was actually thinking about this post on that opening series. Wow. Nice, CC. You should go to Vegas! Not that it takes a tremendous amount of skill to predict what Stanford will do on offense.
-m.
Sadly, it didn't take a crystal ball on that one. . . .
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - Austroturf - 10-20-2018
Dawgs take down the Buffs. Only Wazzu and Stanford control their Pac-12 north destinies. That could change after the contest between the Ducks and the Cougs this evening. I'm inclined to pull for the Cougs, hoping we can score a W next Saturday. Then comes the all-important game vs. the Dawgs in Seattle. Colorado gave us no cover this week; and it is unlikely that Cal will be of any service next week. In short: the Pac-12 north championship runs through Seattle on November 3rd. Book it.
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - Mick - 10-20-2018
(10-20-2018, 04:04 PM)Austroturf Wrote: Dawgs take down the Buffs. Only Wazzu and Stanford control their Pac-12 north destinies. That could change after the contest between the Ducks and the Cougs this evening. I'm inclined to pull for the Cougs, hoping we can score a W next Saturday. Then comes the all-important game vs. the Dawgs in Seattle. Colorado gave us no cover this week; and it is unlikely that Cal will be of any service next week. In short: the Pac-12 north championship runs through Seattle on November 3rd. Book it.
Cougars are ahead 27-0 at the half. Looking pretty good here.
RE: Amazingly, we control our Pac 12 destiny - martyup - 10-20-2018
(10-20-2018, 06:25 PM)Mick Wrote:(10-20-2018, 04:04 PM)Austroturf Wrote: Dawgs take down the Buffs. Only Wazzu and Stanford control their Pac-12 north destinies. That could change after the contest between the Ducks and the Cougs this evening. I'm inclined to pull for the Cougs, hoping we can score a W next Saturday. Then comes the all-important game vs. the Dawgs in Seattle. Colorado gave us no cover this week; and it is unlikely that Cal will be of any service next week. In short: the Pac-12 north championship runs through Seattle on November 3rd. Book it.
Cougars are ahead 27-0 at the half. Looking pretty good here.
But, they are the Cougs.