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Stanford opens as underdog - Row80Critic - 09-23-2018

Stanford opens in Vegas as a 3.5 underdog next weekend.  Probably would be the other way around in Palo Alto... I'm hoping they start Wimbush :)  Sagarin's ratings make is a perfect push.  85.68 - 82.98 makes Stanford a 2.70 point favorite on a neutral field (if one exists against the bandwagonners) but Sagarin gives 2.70 points to the home team, making this a perfect push. But wait!  Under Sagarin's prediction list, he shows Stanford a .01 point favorite, suggesting his calculations go to more than two decimals and that Stanford actually has a sliver of an edge.  I'll take it. :)  His EIGEN system (whatever that is) says Stanford by 5.33 with a 64% chance of winning.

ESPN's FPI says Stanford has only a 32.8% chance to win.  

I guess that's why the play the games.  Go Cardinal!  Go Deeeep!

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - d4cohn - 09-23-2018

No chance Wimbush starts against us. It is Ian Book, after his performance against Wake yesterday.

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - hayaka - 09-23-2018

(09-23-2018, 02:13 PM)Row80Critic Wrote:  Stanford opens in Vegas as a 3.5 underdog next weekend.  Probably would be the other way around in Palo Alto... I'm hoping they start Wimbush :)  Sagarin's ratings make is a perfect push.  85.68 - 82.98 makes Stanford a 2.70 point favorite on a neutral field (if one exists against the bandwagonners) but Sagarin gives 2.70 points to the home team, making this a perfect push. But wait!  Under Sagarin's prediction list, he shows Stanford a .01 point favorite, suggesting his calculations go to more than two decimals and that Stanford actually has a sliver of an edge.  I'll take it. :)  His EIGEN system (whatever that is) says Stanford by 5.33 with a 64% chance of winning.

ESPN's FPI says Stanford has only a 32.8% chance to win.  

I guess that's why the play the games.  Go Cardinal!  Go Deeeep!

Aren't we usually a dog against the Domers, certainly in South Bend and even about half the time on the Farm?  

Of course, we are 7-2 against them lately, so being a dog probably doesn't mean very much.

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - OutsiderFan - 09-23-2018

My guess was ND would be a 4 pt favorite.

Stanford will be the only team to have played three Top 25 opponents in 5 weeks this week, two on the road.  Translation:  Stanford is playing with house money here.  Very few expect them to win, especially coming off an incredibly emotional win at Oregon.  And even if Stanford loses, they are still 2-0 in the Pac-12 North, with a tie-breaker over Oregon.  

Best of all, they play a pretty bad Utah team at home following ND, so if they do go down, they can get back on track with what should be a comfortable win.  If they prevail in South Bend, they will likely be 6-0 before the Thursday night game at ASU. 

If Stanford does beat Notre Dame, Stanford will be vaulted into the playoff discussion in a serious way, because the only team that Stanford wouldn't be favored to beat the rest of the way is at Washington. Given Notre Dame is Notre Dame, Stanford could *potentially* get in the playoff even with a loss in Seattle and not going to the Pac-12 CG.  Washington's loss to Auburn really hurts them, and it seems possible they will lose another game. Nobody would expect any team to go undefeated.  It just rarely happens. Losing at Seattle would be a good loss as long as Stanford was competitive.

IOW, beat Notre Dame and playoff possibilities exists.  But lose and you've got the Pac-12 to play for, and still an outside shot at playoff if you runt run the table.  Stanford really set up its season by finding a way to win in Eugene, and the Ducks playing so well minus two gaffes.

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - Goose - 09-23-2018

This game could be very interesting. I think that we know where Stanford is offensively and defensively. We are not where we want to be, especially on the OL, but we are more serviceable on the defense than most people expected. Notre Dame, OTOH, is an enigma. They haven't played anybody that is good except Michigan. It is probable that the QB who beat Michigan will not start, because he just isn't a good passer. BUT, the new QB beat a team with a very poor pass defense. So, do we maybe see Wimbush because ND thinks our run defense is worse than our pass defense? Or do we see both guys depending on the situation? Is Notre Dame like Oregon, really very good and dogging it against cupcake opponents, or are the actually pretty average?
In fairness, I think Oregon was pointing at the Stanford game all off-season, and Notre Dame was pointing at Michigan. No QB reliably completes 90% of his passes over the long haul. We got Oregon's best for sure. What will we get from ND? I have no idea. I naturally hope we can beat them, because it will keep intact the idea we can have a special season. Not winning there would put a ceiling on how good we are, and that is certainly not desirable. I wouldn't cry if UW lost two games in the PAC-12, but I don't see that happening unless we are one of them. So, the ND game isn't a do or die one for us. However, the world will certainly think much more highly of us if we win!

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - martyup - 09-23-2018

I'm glad that there is no scenario in which we have to play Oregon again this season.  ;-)

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - Phogge - 09-23-2018

Everybody is chasing Alabama. It’s not close.

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - Goose - 09-23-2018

(09-23-2018, 06:57 PM)martyup Wrote:  I'm glad that there is no scenario in which we have to play Oregon again this season.  ;-)
Me Too. Thank God they aren't in the South! Also, it is improbable that they will have Herbert next year if he is a first-rounder. Breaking in a new QB might slow them down a bit.

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - BostonCard - 09-23-2018

Also thank God that Herbert is eligible for the NFL draft this year (and that Browning will be out of eligibility at UW).

BC

RE: Stanford opens as underdog - CompSci87 - 09-23-2018

I'm just going to root for Stanford to beat the Domers and not worry about the rest of the season yet! Much less next season.