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WBB: Western Illinois 71 Stanford 64 - 81alum - 12-17-2017

Preliminary: 

Western Illinois is ranked 91 by Sagarin, so somewhat better than UNLV.  They beat 9-4 Illinois at Illinois.  They are led by experienced guards that are very good at steals and three point shots, so cutting down on turnovers and perimeter defense will be important to us.  Given that--I expect that Tara will play a smaller lineup.  I'd be shocked to see the same 5 starters as against UNLV, rather I expect to see three guards who can handle the ball. 

Before the Game:
Kate talked to us before the game, confirmed that McPhee and Carrington were still out.  During warmups they were on the court helping with the drills.  I did not see any sign of gimpiness on either McPhee's ankle or Carrinton's elbow, no boots or slings or pads--they looked normal to the untrained eye.

Kate noted that Western Illinois is an excellent three point shooting team and talked about how they had three shooters who each had twice as many threes as any of our players.  WI also plays exclusively in the 1-3-1 zone and is aggressive in it, meaning we had been practicing our zone breaking offense.  We were told we would have to hit our three point shots from the deep corners to break it.

We were also told that we were going to stick with the same starting lineup.  This shocked me since I imagined that we would need faster, smaller guards to keep up with this quick team.

Overview of the Game:
A scrappy Western Illinois gained confidence the longer they hung in the game, while we seemed to lose confidence as we proved to the world that we are seriously behind in the rebuilding of our team.  Most shocking statistic:  little, undersized Western Illinois had 34 points in the paint; we had 24.

Analysis:

Let me just list the reasons for this loss, in descending order of importance:

1. Poor defense.  We could not defend against the slashing attacks to the basket of their little 5'4" senior guard Emily Clemens, who is practically the only player on their team who is NOT a three point threat, and who racked up 26 points on 9/16 shooting and who dished under the basket for 4 more assists when we did get someone in front of her.  This bodes very, very ill for us, given that we have Evina Westbrook, Jordan Canada, and Sadie Edwards coming to town in our next three games.  We are only now learning that the departure of McCall/Samuelson/Roberson cost us a lot more on defense than it did on offense.  Tara tried every healthy guard except Brewer and no one could shut down Clemens--a good but far from elite guard from a mid major conference.

2. Lack of mental toughness.  Our team lost confidence when the game got tense in the third quarter and did not play with confidence when playing from behind.  This might be a function of youth unless you consider Alanna.  While Alanna was our leading scorer with 18 points and also had 15 rebounds, she was only 8/24, 0/3 from three point range and a miserable 2/7 free throws.  It seems that she and our team were playing with fear in the second half, short arming shots, over thinking free throws, double clutching etc.  Fear of losing makes losing more likely.  This is where I put our awful, awful free throw shooting.  We were only 8/19, while WI was 20/26.

3. Inadequate scouting.  Kate made it clear that we were chiefly concerned about their three point threat.  However, their three point shooting was not particularly good.  We left them open many times, and they were only 5/29--not because of our defense but mainly because they were just slightly missing--probably 10 balls rimmed out.  On the other hand, we clearly were not expecting the slashing moves to the basket, or we would not have started with a big, slow lineup.  Tara pretty rapidly pulled out Coffee and sent in three guards, and this stabilized the game in the second quarter.  But it is not like us to be surprised in that way.  Higgenbotthem, who is their leading three point shooter at nearly 50%, was 0/3, so we seem to have done a good job on her at the expense of leaving lanes open.

4. Poor officiating.  Our old favorite Missy Barlowe is at least consistent--she doesn't believe in calling any fouls on body contact in the paint.  She never has.  In this game the undersized Leathernecks repeatedly converged on Smith, Dodson, or Johnson and squeezed them between two bodies.  An example of Tara's criticism of sumo-wrestling defense, and it was responsible for our bigs being a total of 8/29.  The officiating greatly diminished what should have been our biggest advantage.

5. Turnovers.  We had 19, which was not as bad as it could have been, or I would have put this one higher on the list.  Western Illinois is in the top 10 teams in the nation for steals, and yes they did have 12 of them tonight, but it could have been worse.  But one way you keep an inferior team in the game is to repeatedly hand the ball to them, and we did.

6. Zone offense.  Our zone offense seemed to do quite well in the 2nd quarter, but we clearly did not know how to solve the 1-3-1 zone in the first.  That is forgiveable--no amount of practice could really prepare us for a completely new kind of defense, and it did seem as if we settled in and solved it in the 2nd after floundering in the 1st.  But we went back to floundering in the 3rd, and by then the damage was done--WI was inspired and we got tight and lost our nerve.  Still, we scored 64 points, made more baskets and more three point shots than they did, so it was not as if we were hopeless against this zone.  But our offense did seem to regress after the progress we saw last game.

7. Injuries.  Having McPhee especially, and maybe Carrington, would have made a difference on defense.  They are both streaky shooters so there is no guarantee that they would have scored more than their replacements, but the senior's experience on defense (she is a good shot blocker) might well have been enough to stop Clemens.

Performances:

I'm not going to go through one by one.  Alanna's struggles are documented above.  Kiana Williams was our second leading scorer with 17 points, but she was only 3/11 from three point range.  Anna Wilson was 3/15 from three point range.  Kaylee had 18 rebounds but fouled out with 1 point.  Marta played for 29 minutes in our new three guard lineup, had 6 assists to 3 turnovers but 0 points. 

As a team we shot 31%, they shot 35%.  We had 24 offensive rebounds to their 14--and didn't convert on a lot of them. 

Conclusion:

This is as bad as it has been in a long time.  Fortunately this week's polls are out, which means we have a chance if we can do a turnaround miracle and beat Tennessee to stay ranked.  If we lose to Tennessee then it is a certainty that we will become an unranked team for the first time in my memory.

Looking ahead, we are now in a fight to 1) reclaim a ranking, 2) having a winning record in the Pac 12, and 3) make the NCAAs.  It is quite possible that we could lose the next three games at home, leaving us 6-8 heading into the new year. 

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - TheFarm07 - 12-17-2017

So could we see a lineup of Williams/Wilson/Romano/Smith/Dodson, perhaps?

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - 81alum - 12-17-2017

(12-17-2017, 11:00 PM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:So could we see a lineup of Williams/Wilson/Romano/Smith/Dodson, perhaps?
Well, we can hope that Carrington or McPhee will be back, but if both are out again, then perhaps that could be the lineup.

On the other hand, Tara used to put Chiney out on the perimeter since her length was disruptive to shooting guards.  But would she do that with Smith?  Could Smith keep up with the smaller quicker three point shooting guards?  If she can't, then Tara may have to play three guards.  Sniezek would be in that rotation for her defense, probably.

As for Dodson, I think Tara may start Johnson but give Dodson the most minutes.  That is normally what she does during a transition period.

The wing (3) is definitely in flux with our two best wings out and Lexie Hull still a year off.  So it can either be filled with Smith or Jerome or a guard.

By the way, I was pretty shocked by the lack of racial diversity on the Western Illinois squad.  Haven't seen a team so lopsided in...perhaps ever.  Western Illinois University must be a lot more like Iowa than like Chicago.
http://goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?path=wbball

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - qwerty49 - 12-17-2017

They have two players taller than 6 feet and a whole lot of players listed at 5-10.  Without knowing anything about them I would guess they survive on outside shooting and quickness.  They are not going to have a dominating inside game at that size.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - TheFarm07 - 12-18-2017

(12-17-2017, 11:50 PM)qwerty49 link Wrote:They have two players taller than 6 feet and a whole lot of players listed at 5-10.  Without knowing anything about them I would guess they survive on outside shooting and quickness.  They are not going to have a dominating inside game at that size.

That could mean we can have Sniezek play for defense and get the ball inside to Dodson, Smith, Coffee and/or Fingall. Our post players could have a big game

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - 81alum - 12-18-2017

They are one of the nation's leading teams in steals, which would imply quickness and close defense, disruption of perimeter passes etc.  Exactly what the Princeton is designed to punish.  And I like the idea of using our size to dominate inside, unless they give up on man and go zone--which would seem out of character for their stats.  Maybe this is the game in which Dodson builds her offensive confidence.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - Jskass - 12-18-2017

think Dodson built some confidence last game -- especially the buzzer beater tip-in!

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - 81alum - 12-18-2017

Since we have not started Pac 12 play I think the game is only available on Livestream here:

http://pac-12.com/live/stanford-university

I'll be at the game and will report back later. 

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

Pac-12 Now app knows about the game too. That should be the same stream as 81's link.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

McPhee and Carrington still in sweats, neither in a boot.

Starters are same as last game! Coffee, Smith, Wilson, Johnson, Williams.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

We look terrible so far. Lots of unforced turnovers. Down 9-14 at 4:46 in the first.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

14-21 after one. Are they playing a 2-1-2 defense? Not sure, but when we do get the ball inside, there's heavy traffic.

Our defense seems to be mostly hoping Dodson blocks the shot after their player gets by her defender.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - TheFarm07 - 12-18-2017

We are down 14-21 after one quarter. Their guards are slashing to the rim, hitting 3-pointers and getting o-boards despite being shorter than we are.

Meanwhile, we are falling into our habits of being flummoxed by the zone, leading to cold shooting from long range and committing turnovers.

I feel like I've seen this movie before...

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

Second quarter much better and we're up 33-24. WI only had one point for the quarter until they got a basket with a few seconds left.

No Coffee in the 2nd quarter, and we mostly played 3 guards.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - mbdude - 12-18-2017

what is the score - 30 -27, or 33-24

and my video feed is horrible - stops and has to be reloaded

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

(12-18-2017, 08:40 PM)mbdude link Wrote:what is the score - 30 -27, or 33-24

33-24 definitely. What says 30-27??

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - TheFarm07 - 12-18-2017

Interesting second quarter. We held Western Illinois to just one made field goal and one made free throw -- 3 points, as we outscored them 19-3 to take a 33-24 lead into halftime.

We have 11 turnovers, again just too many. We need to cut that down.

Smith has 11 points in the first half to lead us, but 0/3 from long range. Dodson is 3/3 with 3 blocks, not sure why Tara didn't let her play the last few minutes of the half.

We are a pretty cold 3/14 from 3-point range and letting them grab 9 offensive rebounds with a shorter lineup.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - TheFarm07 - 12-18-2017

(12-18-2017, 08:41 PM)CompSci87 link Wrote:[quote author=mbdude link=topic=18382.msg218589#msg218589 date=1513654825]
what is the score - 30 -27, or 33-24

33-24 definitely. What says 30-27??
[/quote]

ESPN shows 30-27 at the top, but if you look at the box score, it lists the correct 33-24 scoreline

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - mbdude - 12-18-2017

live stats was also 30-27

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. Western Illinois 7pm Monday - CompSci87 - 12-18-2017

Stanford gives most of the lead back in the third. Up only 47-45 after three. Ugh. Countless turnovers.