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QB for Oregon? - Row80Critic - 10-08-2017

Who will start?  Who should?

Re: QB for Oregon? - BostonCard - 10-08-2017

Chryst will start.  As for who should, I don't know.

BC

Re: QB for Oregon? Play the better Passer; that's where Ducks are weak - ADPATERSON - 10-08-2017

Play the better Passer; that's where Ducks are weak -- that's Costello. 
Throw out Oregon vs S.Utah and WY.  Meaningless games, and they distort the team stats.
On the foes that matter, they have beat Oregon by PASSING, averaging better than 32 points per game.
Not close.  Foes averaged 3x more yards (284yds Passing vs 86 Rushing). 

We need to throw, and open lanes for Love.  That is what Costello did vs UCLA, and AZST. 
And, Oregon has problems at QB (too few), so the Defense should be able to make stops.


Oregon FOE   FOE Points
FOE       Rush Pass ByFoe
W  NEBR   109   252   35
L AZST   142   347   37
W ןɐɔ           8   255   24
L WAST     87   282   33
              346 1136   129
Average 86.5   284   32.3


Re: QB for Oregon? Play the better Passer; that's where Ducks are weak - stupac2 - 10-08-2017

(10-08-2017, 07:37 PM)ADPATERSON link Wrote:Play the better Passer; that's where Ducks are weak -- that's Costello. 
Throw out Oregon vs S.Utah and WY.  Meaningless games, and they distort the team stats.
On the foes that matter, they have beat Oregon by PASSING, averaging better than 32 points per game.
Not close.  Foes averaged 3x more yards (284yds Passing vs 86 Rushing). 

We need to throw, and open lanes for Love.  That is what Costello did vs UCLA, and AZST. 
And, Oregon has problems at QB (too few), so the Defense should be able to make stops.


Oregon FOE   FOE Points
FOE       Rush Pass ByFoe
W  NEBR   109   252   35
L AZST   142   347   37
W Cal           8   255   24
L WAST     87   282   33
              346 1136   129
Average 86.5   284   32.3

I'm not sure that follows. Here's a chart of Oregon's opponents, their YPC against Oregon, and their total YPC (without removing Oregon, I don't have the time for that right now):

OpponentYPC vs OUYPC AveDiff
Nebraska3.764.16-0.4
Wyoming3.663.260.4
Arizona St.2.683.05-0.37
California0.282.95-2.67
WSU3.483.160.32

As you can see, besides Cal, most teams got about their average against Oregon, plus or minus less than half a yard. Oregon's seemingly formidable stats mostly come from playing against teams that are bad at running. So, yeah, teams that are bad that running won't run to win, that's approaching tautological.

Re: QB for Oregon? - Phogge - 10-08-2017

Waldvogel.

Re: QB for Oregon? Play the better Passer; that's where Ducks are weak - JJJ - 10-08-2017

(10-08-2017, 08:02 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:that's approaching tautological.

You just gave me a flashback to Logic class, circa 1983/4, riding back at 2 or 3 am because that's when you had "free" hours.
TAUT.
Thanks! 8)

Re: QB for Oregon? - lex24 - 10-08-2017

Chryst.  He did nothing Sat to lose his job. In fact, he played well. I still think Costello has a better upside and I certainly would've started him against Utah.  But there is no question Keller will start. And if he plays like he did Sat, things will be fine.

Re: QB for Oregon? - lex24 - 10-08-2017

Are they playing Michigan??!! :)

(10-08-2017, 09:34 PM)Phogge link Wrote:Waldvogel.


Re: QB for Oregon? - ChicagoCard - 10-09-2017

(10-08-2017, 10:00 PM)lex24 link Wrote:Are they playing Michigan??!! :)

[quote author=Phogge link=topic=17632.msg205299#msg205299 date=1507523655]
Waldvogel.
[/quote]

Here's Waldvogel [url=https://davidmadison.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/1974-Stanford-Football/G0000dH5YC70gmZM/I0000wr4H3jEjw_0/C0000EGHf6NcPx9w[/url] (photo will not embed)...

Re: QB for Oregon? - Hank 91 - 10-09-2017

I have no doubt that we'll be seeing Chrystello at quarterback for at least a couple more weeks. With overmatched opponents Oregon and Oregon State coming up, it's doubtful either Chryst or Costello will doing anything to distinguish himself. My hope was that Costello would look great on Saturday, but that's not what happened.

Re: QB for Oregon? - stupac2 - 10-09-2017

(10-09-2017, 12:50 PM)Hank 91 link Wrote:I have no doubt that we'll be seeing Chrystello at quarterback for at least a couple more weeks. With overmatched opponents Oregon and Oregon State coming up, it's doubtful either Chryst or Costello will doing anything to distinguish himself. My hope was that Costello would look great on Saturday, but that's not what happened.

It's not clear to me that Oregon will be overmatched. I don't think they're quite as formidable as they seemed before the Cal game, but they could definitely beat us if we play like we did against SDSU. Unlike ORST, who might be able to give Rice a game...

Re: QB for Oregon? - ChicagoCard - 10-09-2017

(10-09-2017, 12:50 PM)Hank 91 link Wrote:I have no doubt that we'll be seeing Chrystello at quarterback for at least a couple more weeks.

You'd think by Wash St that Shawgren (couldn't resist) would settle on one or the other of Chrystello.

Re: QB for Oregon? - BostonCard - 10-09-2017

(10-09-2017, 01:59 PM)ChicagoTree link Wrote:[quote author=Hank 91 link=topic=17632.msg205375#msg205375 date=1507578635]
I have no doubt that we'll be seeing Chrystello at quarterback for at least a couple more weeks.

You'd think by Wash St that Shawgren (couldn't resist) would settle on one or the other of Chrystello.
[/quote]

Is it clear he hasn't already settled on Chryst?  I would imagine that Chryst will get most of the snaps, even more than against Utah, with Costello getting a token series or a token package, or reverting back to a conventional back-up, mop-up duty QB.

BC

Re: QB for Oregon? - Goose - 10-09-2017

(10-09-2017, 02:10 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Is it clear he hasn't already settled on Chryst?  I would imagine that Chryst will get most of the snaps, even more than against Utah, with Costello getting a token series or a token package, or reverting back to a conventional back-up, mop-up duty QB.

BC
I think it is clear that Shaw would prefer to play Chryst, because Shaw believes, probably correctly, that it is less probable that Chryst will make a mistake that turns the ball over. It is also probable that he will get us out of bad play calls that Costello may not. If Bryce Love is doing his thing, that will work just fine. Chryst is slow on the read option. but against Utah he sure looked faster than against UCLA.  It was "good enough". Shaw is aware that Chryst probably isn't going to do anything extraordinary. If we are in trouble and Chryst doesn't seem to be doing the job, Costello will be sent out to fix it. Maybe not fair, but that is how it is. Costello is viewed as higher risk, higher reward.

Re: QB for Oregon? - stupac2 - 10-09-2017

(10-09-2017, 02:21 PM)Goose link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17632.msg205397#msg205397 date=1507583430]

Is it clear he hasn't already settled on Chryst?  I would imagine that Chryst will get most of the snaps, even more than against Utah, with Costello getting a token series or a token package, or reverting back to a conventional back-up, mop-up duty QB.

BC
I think it is clear that Shaw would prefer to play Chryst, because Shaw believes, probably correctly, that it is less probable that Chryst will make a mistake that turns the ball over. It is also probable that he will get us out of bad play calls that Costello may not. If Bryce Love is doing his thing, that will work just fine. Chryst is slow on the read option. but against Utah he sure looked faster than against UCLA.  It was "good enough". Shaw is aware that Chryst probably isn't going to do anything extraordinary. If we are in trouble and Chryst doesn't seem to be doing the job, Costello will be sent out to fix it. Maybe not fair, but that is how it is. Costello is viewed as higher risk, higher reward.
[/quote]

Based on gameplay so far Costello has been less likely to turn the ball over. Of course there's some big sample size problems there...

Re: QB for Oregon? - 81alum - 10-09-2017

I wonder how much the long long term figures into the QB calculation.  For example, if you were fairly sure that Mills is the next Andrew Luck and that he will be starting in his sophomore year, how would that affect your decisions between Chryst and Costello this year?  Would it have any effect? 

Re: QB for Oregon? Chryst roasted Ducks last year - ADPATERSON - 10-09-2017

Here is what Shaw is looking at: Last year at OREG, Chryst threw 19 for 26 for 258yds (10yd per attempt), 3 TDs, no INTs, and an NCAA QBR of 93.7. Rector 2TDs, JJAW for 1. That is as good as it gets, with McCaffrey and Love in your backfield. McCaff ran for 3TDs.
Mix it up.  Oregon uses a 350lb nose tackle on run downs.  Throw it and create space for Love.  Avoid up the middle. 

Re: QB for Oregon? Chryst roasted Ducks last year - martyup - 10-09-2017

(10-09-2017, 08:25 PM)ADPATERSON link Wrote:Here is what Shaw is looking at: Last year at OREG, Chryst threw 19 for 26 for 258yds (10yd per attempt), 3 TDs, no INTs, and an NCAA QBR of 93.7. Rector 2TDs, JJAW for 1. That is as good as it gets, with McCaffrey and Love in your backfield. McCaff ran for 3TDs.
Mix it up.  Oregon uses a 350lb nose tackle on run downs.  Throw it and create space for Love.  Avoid up the middle.

We could always use this approach to that big guy in the middle.  ;D

[Image: The_Longest_Yard_5_7_Movie_CLIP_Ball_Bre...974_HD.gif]

Re: QB for Oregon? - teejers1 - 10-09-2017

If it worked once . . .

The Longest Yard . . . not a bad flick.  (The original that is, never saw the Sandler remake).