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Our Upcoming Opponent #3 - CTcard - 07-12-2017

We've had a couple of articles about how some of our upcoming opponents see us. Here's one about how to view one of our opponents that we don't see often: San Diego State, week #3, on the road.

I just saw three articles about San Diego State on SBNation.
This one is a run down on their (kind of) unique 3-3-5 defense.
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2017/7/5/15893384/the-aztec-defender-san-diego-state-rocky-long-3-3-5
The other is a quick look at depth and returning starters.
https://www.mwcconnection.com/2017/3/9/14875122/san-diego-state-football-how-is-the-depth-looking-for-the-aztecs
And, as always, one of the better previews is by Bill Connelly
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/4/14/15239568/san-diego-state-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

On the road, sandwiched between games vs USC and UCLA, against an in-state team that finished #25 last year in both AP and Coaches polls - this would seem to have the makings of a surprisingly tough matchup.

Last year, the hype was all for their star RB, Donnell Pumphrey. (Pumphrey actually had more all purpose yards (total) than McCaffrey last year, but he played in three more games.) Despite the hype, the strength of the team was its defense. In all of Division 1, SDSU ranked #11 in both total defense and yds allowed per play; #17 in scoring defense; #24 in defensive S&P+, and #26 in FEI defense. All considerably better than their middle of the road offensive stats.

From last year, SDSU loses 6 of 11 from offense and 5 of 11 from defense. Among the losses are the Mountain West offensive player of the year Pumphrey [fourth round pick Eagles] and MW defensive player of the year cornerback Damontae Kazee [fifth round pick Falcons]. Among the losses were 4/5 of the OL and 2/3 of the DL. 

That's a lot to lose.
Stanford was similar in losing its best player on both offense and defense. In addition, there is reason to think both Stanford's incoming top RB and SDSU's (Penny, 1018 yds) are pretty good. But, Stanford only lost 3 starters on offense (McCaffrey, Rector, Caspers) and 2/3 on defense (Thomas, Lloyd, and Hoffpaiur started several games).

The article on the 3-3-5 defense basically describes it being designed to handle spread offenses by hiding an extra safety in the middle of the field (the Aztec), thus freeing that player up to come make plays on the otherwise free ball carrier. As noted above, their defensive stats were very good last year. However, the only Power 5 team they played was Cal, a game SDSU won in a shootout, 45-40. Cal put up 604 yards (almost all passing of course), but turned the ball over 4 times and allowed a KO return for a TD.
(Other teams that moved the ball on SDSU were Wyoming (a balanced offense - they played twice, with Wyoming winning and playing much better the first time) and Colorado State who went nuts on them (mostly running). SDSU's best win was their bowl game vs Houston, 34-10.)

One would think that an extra safety and a not particularly brobdingnagian set of DL would not match up particularly well to a power run game, though I do note they seem to be going for more size on the DL this year as they've moved their 265# NT to DE and have first and second string NT at 295#.


SDSU's own offense was rush heavy, not surprising with Pumphrey. The run game had 65% of their yards and 71% of their plays. Those both are considerably more than Stanford last year at 57% and 61%.
I haven't watched SDSU a lot. I think they run sort of a simplified pro-style, run first offense. Not nearly as many formations and personnel changes as Stanford, sticking more often with the RB-FB-TE and two WR sets. They don't play particularly quickly, so the game may have some of the fewest total plays in the whole season. 


Stanford will and should be favoured, but if SDSU has their replacement pipeline set, it could be a tough game.


Re: Our Upcoming Opponent #3 - Spiny_Norman - 07-13-2017

Good preview, CTcard.  Stanford might be able to learn a bit about the 2017 Aztecs from their Week 2 game at Arizona State.  SDSU plays UC Davis in Week 1.

Liked the SDSU summary... - Redrum - 07-13-2017

...but those "radar" graphs looked like an idea that isn't an advance over old fashioned statistics.  Not much bang for the buck from my viewpoint, but I'm usually wrong about newfangled things. 

Don't want to be reading our message boards if we lose or win badly to those guys.  Without a consistently competent QB, we could.

Re: Our Upcoming Opponent #3 - fanhood - 07-14-2017

(07-12-2017, 02:55 PM)CTcard link Wrote:We've had a couple of articles about how some of our upcoming opponents see us. Here's one about how to view one of our opponents that we don't see often: San Diego State, week #3, on the road.

I just saw three articles about San Diego State on SBNation.
This one is a run down on their (kind of) unique 3-3-5 defense.
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2017/7/5/15893384/the-aztec-defender-san-diego-state-rocky-long-3-3-5
The other is a quick look at depth and returning starters.
https://www.mwcconnection.com/2017/3/9/14875122/san-diego-state-football-how-is-the-depth-looking-for-the-aztecs
And, as always, one of the better previews is by Bill Connelly
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/4/14/15239568/san-diego-state-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

On the road, sandwiched between games vs Under Stanford Control (again) and UCLA, against an in-state team that finished #25 last year in both AP and Coaches polls - this would seem to have the makings of a surprisingly tough matchup.

Last year, the hype was all for their star RB, Donnell Pumphrey. (Pumphrey actually had more all purpose yards (total) than McCaffrey last year, but he played in three more games.) Despite the hype, the strength of the team was its defense. In all of Division 1, SDSU ranked #11 in both total defense and yds allowed per play; #17 in scoring defense; #24 in defensive S&P+, and #26 in FEI defense. All considerably better than their middle of the road offensive stats.

From last year, SDSU loses 6 of 11 from offense and 5 of 11 from defense. Among the losses are the Mountain West offensive player of the year Pumphrey [fourth round pick Eagles] and MW defensive player of the year cornerback Damontae Kazee [fifth round pick Falcons]. Among the losses were 4/5 of the OL and 2/3 of the DL. 

That's a lot to lose.
Stanford was similar in losing its best player on both offense and defense. In addition, there is reason to think both Stanford's incoming top RB and SDSU's (Penny, 1018 yds) are pretty good. But, Stanford only lost 3 starters on offense (McCaffrey, Rector, Caspers) and 2/3 on defense (Thomas, Lloyd, and Hoffpaiur started several games).

The article on the 3-3-5 defense basically describes it being designed to handle spread offenses by hiding an extra safety in the middle of the field (the Aztec), thus freeing that player up to come make plays on the otherwise free ball carrier. As noted above, their defensive stats were very good last year. However, the only Power 5 team they played was ןɐɔ, a game SDSU won in a shootout, 45-40. ןɐɔ put up 604 yards (almost all passing of course), but turned the ball over 4 times and allowed a KO return for a TD.
(Other teams that moved the ball on SDSU were Wyoming (a balanced offense - they played twice, with Wyoming winning and playing much better the first time) and Colorado State who went nuts on them (mostly running). SDSU's best win was their bowl game vs Houston, 34-10.)

One would think that an extra safety and a not particularly of exceedingly large proportions set of DL would not match up particularly well to a power run game, though I do note they seem to be going for more size on the DL this year as they've moved their 265# NT to DE and have first and second string NT at 295#.


SDSU's own offense was rush heavy, not surprising with Pumphrey. The run game had 65% of their yards and 71% of their plays. Those both are considerably more than Stanford last year at 57% and 61%.
I haven't watched SDSU a lot. I think they run sort of a simplified pro-style, run first offense. Not nearly as many formations and personnel changes as Stanford, sticking more often with the RB-FB-TE and two WR sets. They don't play particularly quickly, so the game may have some of the fewest total plays in the whole season. 


Stanford will and should be favoured, but if SDSU has their replacement pipeline set, it could be a tough game.

Thanks for the write-up on our team.

A few more notes:

OFFENSE

- Donnell Pumphrey's back-up last season, Rashad Penny, ran for over 1,000 yards. Additionally, he returned three kickoffs for TDs, and is the two-time MW Special Teams Player of the Year. Is is very possible that he breaks McCaffrey's Single Season All-Purpose Record from 2015. Many believe that he is a more complete back than Pumphrey and will be a higher rated prospect going into the Draft.

- Our QB has now started for a 1.2 seasons. He was the starter for the last three games of 2015, then started the entire 2016 campaign, thus he is led us to two straight conference title victories.

- We return our two leading WRs, and brought in a JC kid named Trevillion that appeared to be a burner in the Spring.

- The most glaring weakness on the Offense will be Offensive Line. We lost four starters from the line last year, and the unit started each and every game together, so the back-ups only played in mop-up time. The starters for this season are young (two R-FR, one Junior, one Soph, one Senior). However, they are getting rave reviews, and are brobdingnagian. Our OL has often been larger than many NFL teams.

DEFENSE

- While we lose key performers from last year like Kazee (Defensive Player of the Year), Calvin Munson (on NFL roster), Malik Smith (on NFL roster), and two D-Lineman, ten of our eleven starters for this year started games last year. Many project the Defense to be better this season than the last.

- Our Linebackers are all fast, and perfectly suited for the 3-3-5.

- Even with the loss of Kazee, our DBs will be fast, and experienced

SPECIAL TEAMS

- Our kicker only missed two FGs last season. He is on the Lou Groza watch list.

- Our PR (Quest Truxton) had multiple long returns last year, and was sure handed.

- We do not have a Punter right now, and our Kicker is penciled in as the starting Punter as of today.

OVERALL

- Strangely, this season has the feel of a rebuilding year, while it also feels like we should win 9 to 10 regular season games. Rocky Long and staff have recruited incredibly well, we have a tone of players returning from the two-deep, and our Defense appears to be fast, and athletic. Offensively, we expect to be better than last year, and will be more balanced.

- SDSU is the favorite to win the West Division again this year, and gets Boise State from the Mountain at Home.

- We open with UC Davis at Home, then travel to Tempe to play Arizona State. We expect to win both those games, as it would be very disappointing to lose to an average Sun Devil team. While the Cal game was close last year, the Aztecs had a 17 point lead late in the third qtr, then stopped moving the ball. I expect the ASU game to be similar to the Cal game in the first half of so, then SDSU will impose its will.

- Stanford will surely be favored in this game, as they should be. Many Aztec fans believe we can win, but many of us do not think we will. The fact that Stanford plays in a pro-set and runs a balanced attack works in our favor, as we normally struggle against teams that air it out. There will be over 50k at the game, and believe it or not, there are a lot of passionate SDSU fans, who really turn out against Pac 12 teams.

Prediction: 34-27 Stanford. SDSU will have a lead multiple times throughout the game, but Stanford will assert its dominance in the 4th Qtr.

Go Aztecs!

Thanks for the "good" news - Redrum - 07-14-2017

"- The most glaring weakness on the Offense will be Offensive Line. We lost four starters from the line last year, and the unit started each and every game together, so the back-ups only played in mop-up time. The starters for this season are young (two R-FR, one Junior, one Soph, one Senior). However, they are getting rave reviews, and are of exceedingly large proportions. Our OL has often been larger than many NFL teams."

To balance things out, we lost an NFL 1st rounder DL (Thomas) who raised our overall DLine performance all by his lonesome.  Our best DL this season, Philips, is a great guy who has maxed out after recovering from surgery.  The guy is a warrior and by now is experienced as one can get, but light for the DL world and the pieces around him haven't proved much. A well single-teamed or a double-teamed Philips might negate a lot of what we saw from our DL last year.