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Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - Durty Nelly - 07-11-2017

Not much insight here.  Did not go out of the way to make any bold predictions.

Thought Reid would get a mention in the secondary and Phillips on the DL.  I see 3 big questions--the OL chemistry/pass protection, the DL depth, and the performance of the FG kicker.

https://www.conquestchronicles.com/2017/7/10/15894106/usc-trojans-football-opponent-q-a-stanford-cardinal-pac-12

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - JJJ - 07-11-2017

I'm going to predict that Jet Toner is going to have himself a helluva year.

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - washingtonismoney - 07-11-2017

(07-11-2017, 05:40 AM)JJJ link Wrote:I'm going to predict that Jet Toner is going to have himself a helluva year.

Gonna get a lot of ink in the national press.

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - SpokaneLee - 07-11-2017

(07-11-2017, 05:40 AM)JJJ link Wrote:I'm going to predict that Jet Toner is going to have himself a helluva year.

I double your prediction.

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - CTcard - 07-11-2017

(07-11-2017, 03:51 AM)Durty Nelly link Wrote:Not much insight here.  Did not go out of the way to make any bold predictions.

At least the writer tried to actually say something about the upcoming Stanford team, unlike the nominally similar article by a Bruin supporter discussed here recently.

It's got a typical mix of common wisdom, half truths, and outright incorrect info that is typical in this kind of opponent preview. I guess it's understandable; nobody knows other teams as well as they know their own. On the other hand, the Stanford answers were provided by somebody named Nick Dempsey, who apparently manages both the Rule of Tree and Conquest Chronicles sub-web sites at SBNation. One might think that the Rule of Tree part means he knows our team.

Here is a collection of comments that caught my eye:

"However, the Cardinals have a pretty deep backfield with plenty of talented running backs so would expect a committee rushing the ball this fall."

Apparently Louisville has a deep backfield.
The Stanford Cardinal appear to have a rather thin backfield, at least of guys who have seen significant playing time, but they do have one very promising lead back. I expect Love to get by far the majority of the carries this fall - if health and reasonable success prevail.


"As far as replacing his [McCaffrey's] passing game production I would expect Stanford to return to using tight ends for passes underneath or across the middle."

Perhaps. I do expect more passes to tight ends and no back will have as many receptions as McCaffrey did. Whether the TEs will be running the same kind of routes and serving the same sort of role as McCaffrey as receiver played is much less clear.


" David Shaw does not provide any insights or clues into what he is thinking about the position [quarterback]."

Actually, Shaw says quite a bit about what he is thinking on the quarterback role. For the coming year, he has said that the starting job is Chryst's and that Chryst will be back healthy on time. It's everybody else who cannot quite believe that's true given the apparent severity of the injury Chryst suffered. Hard to tell what is true, but Shaw's statements have been clear.


"the defense has another special group in the secondary. Look for guys like Frank Buncom and Quenton Meeks to make an impact this season."

It should be a special group. However, it's not exactlynew to look for Meeks to make an impact, and not sure that Buncom comes second to mind in thinking about the secondary. It's not entirely clear to me if being switched to safety is an arrow up or down for his playing prospects this coming season, but it does show he wasn't about to be a starting cornerback.


"Q: What under the radar player(s) should Literature's most famous losers fans look for come week two in September?
A: Running Back Bryce Love could have a great breakout season, offensive lineman Nate Herbig is a massive stud at guard and could really turn some heads this season. Wide Receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside could also really step up this season and become a real threat on the outside."

I actually think this is a pretty good answer, but it also strikes me as a little funny.
On offense, Love, Herbig and JJAW are about as above the radar guys as we've got (well, maybe not JJAW but he did get a call-out in Bill Connelly's preview). Still for the rest of the world they aren't on many radars. 


And I saved this on for last because it's complicated, and many will disagree with me ...
"Stanford is loaded at linebacker and while they were young last year they did not get a lot of production."

At least the second part of that statement seems to be the common wisdom around here. Given that it's common wisdom, I am not surprised to see it in this kind of preview. However, in looking back at the last two seasons more closely, I am not certain how true it is. 

I think that the common wisdom is that in 2016, ILB production fell through the floor with the loss of Martinez and OLB production was mostly flat. 

Rewatching a lot of games and trying to integrate over the seasons, I am not quite sure whether I believe this or not. It certainly looked different. In 2015 it seems all linebacker plays were made by Martinez, whereas in 2016 LB plays were split between a host of players.

The defensive numbers added up are surprising, at least to me.

By my count,
in 2015 the linebackers made 44.5% of all tackles.
in 2016 the linebackers made 44.1% of all tackles.

in 2015 the linebackers made 19.5 sacks in 14 games.
in 2016 the linebackers made 19.5 sacks in 13 games.

Those were accompanied by a very small shift in the tackle split between ILB and OLB, with ILB making just slightly more of the overall tackles in 2015. However, the ILB also made fewer of the sacks in 2015.

Of course that is not everything - somebody makes the tackle on most plays whether it's for zero yards or fifteen.
Overall, the defense
in 2015 gave up 4.32 yds/rush attempt
in 2016 gave up 4.11 yds/rush attempt
in 2015 gave up a pass efficiency of 124.0 (6.8 yds/att)
in 2016 gave up a pass efficiency of 117.8 (6.7 yds/att)       
So, it's not as if all tackles were being made much further down the field.

As folks will note, there are a problem with these numbers (and any numbers) as a proxy for the broad question of how good was linebacker play, but at the very least I think that our cumulative ILB play in 2016 was better than common wisdom seems to allow.
I'm also pretty optimistic for linebacker play in 2017.

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - ADPATERSON - 07-13-2017

Right... Nick Dempsey at SBNation is a Trojan alum, and admits it. 
Agree on Shaw about QB:  It's Chryst, if he is healthy.  Plays a lot like Hogan, and Shaw likes that.
Concern:  watching the Sun Bowl again -- Chryst went down late in Q1 and our red zone production went down with him.  Burns is a strong physical specimen, but has trouble making mental decisions if the first receiver is not open.  He made a bad Grounding toss, and threw another one five yards past LOS!  Red zone performance in Sun Bowl was terrible Q2-Q4.
O-Line:  Will be better than last year and than 2014. Let's see how soon the Twin Towers (Sarrel and Not-so-Little) evolve at Tackle. The starting crew has more reps now.  Look for Sarrel and Little to get reps as the Jumbo on 3rd and short
RBs:  The Love Machine could be second coming of Glyn Milburn (early 90s) with that kind of speed and size.  The up-and-comers:  Speights, Maddux, Scarlett each looked good in Spring game; I liked Speights power and ability to break tackles the best. He had BIG numbers out of a high caliber arena in Texas H.S.
Stanford TEs (Ertz, Fleener, Toilolo...) are signing big contracts in the NFL, not just getting to the NFL.  Now we've got Schultz, Kaden Smith (#1 in USA 2016), now Colby Parkinson (#1 in USA for 2017) -- best set of TEs in country.
WRs:  Not as deep as Hogan had perhaps, but plenty to work with considering the three TEs in the mix, plus Love out of the backfield.
I would like to see more Love in a versatile slotback spot than between the tackles.  Start Speights at TB and rotate in the others, and move Love around (in motion) to isolate him on LBs so he doesn't get slowed down trudging through DLers.
His TD in Sun Bowl was a wheel route toss out of backfield that is a matchup nightmare for LBs.
McCaff was deadly on that short toss out of backfield. [Opening play TD of Rose Bowl]
No Defense could handle Love, Irwin, JJAW, and a TE out on crossing combo routes.
This will be especially important vs USuC, UCLA, WASH with big DLs. 
Running on Huskies will be VERY difficult this season, but UW lost their entire all-Pac12 DB set. 
So, we must be able to throw this year to win the crown.

DEFENSE:  As a set of 11 to 18 guys, this is AS GOOD A Defense as we have ever fielded, IMO.  Sure Solly Thomas, Blake Martinez, Trent Murphy, Skov were studs, but the DEPTH this year is the result of four years of solid pipeline building: 
1) Snagging DB Coach Akina out of the UT Mack Brown implosion was pure gold -- his NFL protege numbers are top shelf.  Top 50 DBs come to Stanford to be the next Richard Sherman, a $10M a year man now.  Every starting DB is a 4star or better out of HS.  First time ever.  PhilSteele rates Stanford back 4 in top THREE USA.  And, in Pac12 with best QBs, we need em.
Pac12 QBs going to NFL:  Darnold (USuC), Browning (UW), Falk (WSU), Rosen (UCLA).
2) DL is always toughest slot for us to recruit, but this group is up to the task given the depth behind them.  This might be the best back 8 as a group that we ever have had.  Maybe brobdingnagian DW Perry and Mike Williams step up on DL.
3) The LBs, gong 6-8 deep, are a VERY confident group.  Lot of experience.  One weakness:  covering quick RBs out of the backfield.  But every team faces that problem in pass-happy Pac12. 

3) I think the Defense needs to take chances and score points, as we needed to win Sun Bowl.

Hmmmm - Redrum - 07-14-2017

Maybe I just haven't been really, really scrutinizing Chryst's play but, off hand, Hogan-esque isn't the description I would use to describe it.  Can you give examples of what you mean?

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - ADPATERSON - 07-15-2017

Chryst runs read option a lot like Hogan, but better.  Chryst also likes to block.
Both power run, and stretch forward for extra yard, vs dodge and slide like Mariota did.
Both have strong arms and tend to overthrow.

Re: Stanford Preview on Conquest Chronicles - fullmetal - 07-18-2017

Hogan's mechanics didn't help his lack of quick-strike throwing capability.  I think Chryst can handle those throws, but he's been a bit inaccurate if memory serves.  And Chryst sort of has a flat intermediate ball...right?  I think his deep ball is good though.  It's been too long since I've seen Chryst throw...and I'm still holding out hope that the Browns get their heads on straight and give Hogan a real chance.