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WBB: Predicted Starters - 81alum - 07-22-2016

Here is one plausible prediction for what the team will look like, now that we know of the losses and are looking forward to the frosh.

5 Kaylee backed up by Fingall.  Our best rebounder needs to get back to her freshman form in snagging rebounds, but she made a lot of progress with a couple of back-to-the-basket moves added to her repertoire last year, so I expect that she will provide better offense and may surprise some people.  Kaylee has the potential to be dominant if she gets stronger over the summer.  Fingall looks strong and athletic, and should be able to battle inside as well as anyone we have had for quite a while.  It remains to be seen if Coffee is fully recovered and whether she has improved enough to help a thin front line.  We could really use her.

4 McCall.  Last year Erica's jumper was vastly improved by the end of the year, and her future as a pro probably depends upon her proving that she has a consistent face-up jumper.  So I think she will play more at the 4 than the five.  Fingall is also likely to be her backup at the 4.  I don't see a lot of options other than going small and using one of the wings in the 4 slot. 

3 McPhee backed up by Carrington.  Probably no necessity for Karlie to play the three this year after Lili's departure.  Carrington could challenge McPhee for a starting role by the end of the year, depending on how much consistency McPhee is able to achieve and how good Carrington turns out to be.  McPhee's instincts are to attack the basket, but she still needs to hit treys consistently to force the defense to come to her and not just lie in wait for her next move.  If Carrington is stellar and Britt improved, then Tara might have to experiment by figuring out a plan to play them both at the same time, and given our lack of depth in the paint I wonder about rotating one of them into a "stretch 4" if Erica or Kaylee get in foul trouble. 

2 Karlie backed up by Bri and Brewer.  Hard to imagine Karlie not getting most of the minutes.  Bri can get minutes if she shows she can shoot more consistently.  I like what I have seen of Brewer, but I imagine she will be sorely needed when Karlie and Bri both graduate.  Against certain quick guards I think Bri will get time just for her defense, if nothing else. 

1 Marta backed up by Wilson and Bri.  I hope Marta can start right where she left off--with copious assists but also aggressive moves to the basket and enough rainbow threes to keep the defense honest.  She will need to since Wilson will be there to challenge.  And if Marta and Wilson both excel--well then maybe they play 1-2 and Karlie goes back to the 3.

Overall, I like the way this team fits together.  I'm not worried about offense against man--even with Lili's loss I think improvement of other players and the new frosh will make up for it.  I still worry about whether we can consistently break the zone after last year's debacles.  And I worry that we are thin inside and could get bullied by larger and taller posts.  A lot will depend upon Kaylee adding some muscle and Fingall being ready to play.

Re: WBB: Predicted Starters - TheFarm07 - 07-22-2016

Thanks for the analysis, 81alum. What about Alanna Smith and Kailee? Do you think they might play a bigger role? I am particularly intrigued by Smith, she showed flashes of potential, especially with the 20+ points she had during the Thanksgiving tournament, but she saw fewer appearances down the stretch.

Re: WBB: Predicted Starters - BobK - 07-22-2016

I think McCall stays at the 5.  Smith will play a lot hopefully more at the 4 but also the 3.  Wilson needs to be cleared of the concussion problem although I am referring to the Kate interview, now almost a moth since the actual interview.

Still great post 81. 

Re: WBB: Predicted Starters - Griffins78 - 07-22-2016

Do you think the starting line-up and specific roles might not be as important as in the past. Ala the Warriors, I could see Tara going deeper into the bench with lots of mixing and matching. We have players that can play multiple roles and allow us to switch more freely on defense.

Re: WBB: Predicted Starters - 81alum - 07-22-2016

I don't know how I missed Alanna!  A lot will depend on her ability to become more consistent with the trey.  If she does, she can be a stretch 4 or play at the 3.  We need her more at the 4--she needs to be stronger and have surer hands and better passing.  Her weakness as a frosh were turnovers which can be cut down with strength, conditioning, drills, etc.  If she used her off season effectively then she has the skill to be a difference maker, but I think she had some difficulties adjusting to the physicality and quickness of American college basketball.  No reason she can't develop into a Jillian Harmon type player.

Erica at the 5?  I just think that McCall and Kaylee need to be on the floor at the same time for most of the season, and they can't both play the 5.  The four is more plausible now that Erica is hitting jumpshots and Kaylee has a back to the basket move.  Which of the two of them is the better passer?

Kailee--Tara made that comment in the press just after the season was over that Kailee had great ability but needed to decide on how important basketball was to her.  A lot will depend on whether she took those remarks to heart and used the off season to improve and recommit.  Otherwise I'm not sure we will see much of her. 

Yes, Griffin, Tara has scrambled the personnel packages extensively over the last two years, partly in response to what she has seen with the Warriors.  In the end, she will figure out a way of putting our 5 best players on the court at the same time regardless of position--but she is defensive minded and won't want to give up poor match-ups to the opposition.  The shifting mostly will happen with the 2-3-4 positions, probably in response to how well Wilson, Bri, Carrington, McPhee, and Alanna seem to be doing--with Karlie solid regardless.  The Warriors, however, have had more consistency with their three point shots, and have the athleticism to get open at the three point line even when closely covered.  If we want to play small ball we will need to do better than we did last year in those respects.