More Vegas odds - Printable Version

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More Vegas odds - washingtonismoney - 05-14-2016

Some Vegas book has released selected game-by-game odds. Here's Stanford:

Stanford (-1) @ N.D.
Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon
Stanford (-13.5) @ Cal

https://twitter.com/JimmyVaccaro/status/731250235029118976/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

So looks like they're projecting roughly 2-1 out of those three games.

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Re: More Vegas odds - winflop - 05-14-2016

I'll bet on red on all three :)

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Re: More Vegas odds - fullmetal - 05-14-2016

Who was betting Leicester City at the start of the season?  :P 

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Re: More Vegas odds - CTcard - 05-15-2016

(05-14-2016, 04:25 PM)garvin link Wrote:Does anybody actually place bets on games this early? We don't play the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends for five months -- the whole team (either one) could be felled by the zika virus by then.

Well, probably not the Zika virus unless it can work retroactively by 18-22 years. But we get the idea.

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I found it curious that Stanford was favored at und but an underdog vs the duckies, as most far-preseason rankings I have seen have und ranked about 10 spots higher.

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Re: More Vegas odds - washingtonismoney - 05-24-2016

https://twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/734799607301963776

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Re: More Vegas odds - stupac2 - 05-24-2016

Why is Michigan so high? Lots of talent coming back?

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Re: More Vegas odds - washingtonismoney - 05-24-2016

(05-24-2016, 12:34 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:Why is Michigan so high? Lots of talent coming back?

Some of it's Harbaughmania; they've got 13 returning starters. A lot of them are big names -- Kiper's first round mock draft for 2017 had two Michigan players on it (Peppers and their corner, Jourdan Lewis). Then Harbaugh brought in a big recruiting class with the #1 recruit.

Mysteriously, I'm not sure what caused Stanford to drop: we were, IIRC, 12/1 in the first odds. I got them at 18/1 back in March. Now down to 30/1. I imagine the market isn't terribly liquid but the team's only gotten good news since January, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

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Re: More Vegas odds - fullmetal - 05-24-2016

They're ranked highly because they're getting a new punter... :P

jk?

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Re: More Vegas odds - washingtonismoney - 07-06-2016

https://twitter.com/TedMillerRK/status/750714657107619840

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Re: More Vegas odds - dabigv13 - 07-06-2016

Oregon looks good at 3/1.

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Re: More Vegas odds - BostonCard - 07-06-2016

Odds to win the Pac-12:

https://twitter.com/tedmillerrk/status/750722269698142208

Stanford at 3-1 is the *gasp* favorite.  Given the number of questions we have that's a boatload of respect.  Looking at the list, I'd probably consider Oregon and USC (11 to 2) as underrated; same with Washington State (14/1).  I don't think any of them will win, but their odds are probably higher than listed.

BC

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Re: More Vegas odds - stupac2 - 07-06-2016

I have trouble figuring out what these odds mean, so I took the inverse of each, summed them, and used that to normalize probabilities for each team:


This also implies that the north is the favorite over the south (~58% to 42%).

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Re: More Vegas odds - fullmetal - 07-06-2016

Scary that WSU only has a 5% chance and yet nearly dethroned Stanford last year.  I think they're being underestimated this season, though perhaps not all games they play will be accompanied by drizzling rain on a rubber turf field...

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Re: More Vegas odds - CrazedZooChimp - 07-06-2016

(07-06-2016, 09:09 AM)dabigv link Wrote:Oregon looks good at 3/1.

Nowhere near as good as WSU does at 13/2. I'd consider making that bet...

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Re: More Vegas odds - Papa John - 07-06-2016

stupac2, casino odds are intended to entice folks to gamble. They are not the "true" odds. But they are fun to consider...for entertainment purposes, of course.

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Re: More Vegas odds - stupac2 - 07-07-2016

(07-06-2016, 10:51 PM)Papa John link Wrote:stupac2, casino odds are intended to entice folks to gamble. They are not the "true" odds. But they are fun to consider...for entertainment purposes, of course.

Well, sure, these clearly weren't handed down from the gods on high as the One True Representation of what Might Happen To Be, but that's not the point. As I said I did that translation because I have no idea what the hell 3/1 means in comparison to 7/2 (because being slightly more favored) so I converted them to probabilities. Obviously the actual probabilities are only monkeys throwing poop at the wall, just like literally every prognostication, but it's at least useful as an indication of the common wisdom.

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Re: More Vegas odds - Farm93 - 07-07-2016

(07-06-2016, 10:51 PM)Papa John link Wrote:stupac2, casino odds are intended to entice folks to gamble. They are not the "true" odds. But they are fun to consider...for entertainment purposes, of course.

I have always suspected that casinos needed to do quite a bit to entice money to be placed on Stanford.  Since few from the Stanford community are going to see gambling as a sound strategy, the casinos likely don't get that blindly loyal money for Stanford.  That probably has made Stanford the best betting option over time.

However with Shaw and C-Mac I suspect the casinos are anticipating they will get a fair amount of money on Stanford this year.

It is a bit of a challenge to accept Stanford's new preseason popularity.  And yet it is hard for a program to go to BCS, New Year's Six bowl 5 of the last 6 years and not get some gamblers to put money on that trend.

Not really mentioned in media much, but Stanford hosting WSU may be THE key Pac-12 North game of the year.

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Re: More Vegas odds - CTcard - 07-07-2016

(07-07-2016, 09:26 AM)Farm93 link Wrote:Not really mentioned in media much, but Stanford hosting WSU may be THE key Pac-12 North game of the year.

That may be the key game, but it's also just about equally likely to be any game between the foursome of UW, WSU, Oregon, and Stanford.



Despite their very good year last year, I remain unsold on WSU.

They played very well versus us, and needed some bad breaks to lose, but it wasn't a microcosm of their season. They also lost to Portland State, barely beat Rutgers, lost c.a.l., got to play a completely non-Adams Oregon and won a wild game in 2 OT, vs. UCLA they inverted the script vs us and stole a win, then finished off their regular season getting blown out by UW. None of this is to deny that they had a very good season, but it wasn't exactly consistent dominance.

This season WSU has a lot returning on offense. I believe they need to replace 1 WR (a position where they typically seem well stocked) and 2 OL (a somewhat dicier proposition). On defense I think they lose 5 or 6 starters depending upon how one counts, including five of their front seven. That's a taller order for a team that typically struggles on defense.

I can see the case for WSU as a team on the rise, but I would personally still forecast them for fourth in the north.

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Re: More Vegas odds - washingtonismoney - 07-10-2016

Some other game-by-game odds from the Golden Nugget: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1785559

KSU @ STAN (-16)
SC @ STAN (-6)
STAN @ UCLA (Pick 'em)
STAN @ UW (-3)
STAN @ ND (-3)
STAN @ Arizona (+5.5)
STAN @ Oregon (-3.5)
STAN @ 59ers (+10)

Using this site -- https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/ -- here's the estimate of Stanford's odds in each game:

vs KSU: 91.5%
vs SC: 70.1%
@ UCLA: 50%
@ Washington: 41.2%
@ ND: 41.2%
@ Arizona: 65.8%
@ Oregon: 38.8%
@ 59ers: 71.3%

Or, expected value of 4.699 wins from those games. Figure, we'll say, 95% chances against Colorado, Rice, and Oregon State, plus an 80% chance against Washington State, and we'll say 8.349 expected wins from 2016 from the Vegas + educated guess projection of the season...versus Bill Connelly's 7.9 projected wins.

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Re: More Vegas odds - BostonCard - 07-10-2016

Hmmm... if I were a betting man against the spread, I would take:

KSU
USC
UCLA
Stanford against UW
ND
Stanford against Arizona
Stanford against Oregon
Stanford against Cal

BC

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