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Whistling past the grave yard? - OutsiderFan - 11-10-2015

On the face of things and given what Oregon and Stanford have shown this year, Stanford should comfortably handle Oregon.  But two data points are starting to gnaw at me that make me wonder if I'm underestimating Oregon and over valuing Stanford. Figured I'd share and throw it out to the Cardboard for reactions and comment...

Stanford had a great defense in 2013 and 2014, and the 2012 edition was probably better than 2015's version.  Derek Mason was the DC in 2012 and 2013 when Stanford really shut down Oregon's offense.  In 2014, with Lance Anderson, Stanford's defense was not nearly as effective against Oregon.  One might say that Stanford's offense not being as good in 2014 and it being more effective in 2012 and 2013, explains why Stanford put the clamps on and beat Oregon in 2012 and 2013.  But then if you look at what Mason's defense is doing at Vandy this season, with a hopelessly inept offense - way worse than Stanford in 2014 - you realize that his defenses are good even without any offense to bolster them.

Vanderbilt is #126 in the country in scoring and allows the 12th fewest points.  They are allowing 25% 3rd down conversions, 18% in SEC games.  They do convert 3rd downs at nearly 40%, so they can hold on to the ball a bit, but still, it's pretty clear Mason 's defense is good because it is good, not because the offense helps it much.

Did Derek Mason provide an edge to neutralizing Oregon that Lance Anderson may not?  I'd like to think Anderson took everything Mason did to stop Oregon and incorporated it, but in 2014 at least, it didn't translate.  Another variable to factor is that Stanford had Trent Murphy in 2012 and 2013, not 2014, and Murphy really did a great job in those games.  Vaughters and Anderson are not Trent Murphy.  Might Kalambayi or Alfieri be able to play the Murphy role?  Or did Mason have some intangible that Anderson can't replicate when it comes to stopping Oregon?

Anyway, thought this would be good fodder for discussion.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - Leftcoast - 11-10-2015

Stanford may not have the defense it had in 2012 but neither does Oregon have the Offense it had in 2014. 

I'm as concerned about our lack of a pass rush as anyone but the Ducks will miss Marcus Mariota every bit as much as Stanford will miss Trent Murphy.


Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - PrinceLightfoot - 11-10-2015

The SEC East offenses are terrible so I am not sure those stats are comparable to what was accomplished at Stanford versus some of the most prolific offenses in the nation.

Total Offense National Rank:

Tennessee #48
Georgia #67
Florida #91
South Carolina #92
Kentucky #94
Missouri #126

Houston dropped 34 points on the Vandy defense the week prior to Florida struggling to score 9.

Our defense in 2014 was essentially the same as 2013 so the only intangible I can think of is execution. Mariota burned us on the ground last year. Our OLBs just did not hold the edge and he ran around them several times - maybe Murphy's length was the x factor. Adams is not of the same mold. He prefers to scramble over rushing forward.

Mariota - 5.7 yrds per carry, 15 rushing TDs  (2014)
Adams -  2.5 yrds per carry, 2 rushing TDs

They have been protecting Adams but may throw caution to the wind versus a top10 team, so should we expect more instances where he keeps the ball on the zone read instead of handing it off to the RB? They still have a chance to win the North if we lose the next two games. Unfortunately for them, their defense is almost nonexistant.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - stanfan - 11-10-2015

While I certainly hope to be proven wrong,I believe many are underestimating how the Ducks are playing now.  If we can't get pressure on Vernon Aams, it could be  a very difficult night.  The guy is incredibly elusive (not as fast as Mariota, but quicker) and throws  extremely accurately on the move.  He is perhaps most dangerous when a play breaks down.  While the Ducks have some great athletes in the secondary, it has taken a long time for them to jell.  They seem to be coming together.  Their front 7 has some studs (Buckner and Balducci), but we should have the upper hand there. 

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - washingtonismoney - 11-10-2015

I share garvin's worries, though I'd note that with Falk and Liufau recently, we have seen some more experienced QBs of late. And, of Stanford's 17 sacks, 11 have come in the last four games.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - OutsiderFan - 11-10-2015

OK, I guess let me put it more bluntly.  Is there reason to believe Mason as DC in 2012 and 2013 is the reason Stanford throttled Oregon in those years and if he was around still, the throttling would be continuing?

I'm not saying Lance Anderson isn't a fine Defensive Coordinator. Just wondering if he is as good as Mason, or if Mason had some feel for stopping Oregon's offense that Anderson doesn't?  One game does not a trend make, but still curious.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - stupac2 - 11-10-2015

Per advanced metrics (and maybe simple ones too, I haven't checked) Oregon's defense is worse than Colorado's.

I think that merits repeating with emphasis: OREGON'S DEFENSE IS WORSE THAN COLORADO'S.

Maybe their offense is better against our defense than we've been expecting, but Oregon's defense is putrid. If our offense shows up to play for the full 60 minutes, I'm not sure that last year's Oregon offense could keep pace.

OF, I think the main difference between 2012/2013 and last year/this year is that in the former years we had DL depth and in the latter years we didn't/don't. That could make the difference, but, again, Oregon's defense is worse than Colorado's.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - martyup - 11-10-2015

Each of the next four games are potential graveyards for our CFP hopes.  Winning the next four games is as likely as the WSU kicker missing the FG at the end of that game.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - washingtonismoney - 11-10-2015

(11-10-2015, 09:07 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:OK, I guess let me put it more bluntly.  Is there reason to believe Mason as DC in 2012 and 2013 is the reason Stanford throttled Oregon in those years and if he was around still, the throttling would be continuing?

I'm not saying Lance Anderson isn't a fine Defensive Coordinator. Just wondering if he is as good as Mason, or if Mason had some feel for stopping Oregon's offense that Anderson doesn't?  One game does not a trend make, but still curious.

There's no way to really know.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - fullmetal - 11-10-2015

(11-10-2015, 09:09 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:Per advanced metrics (and maybe simple ones too, I haven't checked) Oregon's defense is worse than Colorado's.

I think that merits repeating with emphasis: OREGON'S DEFENSE IS WORSE THAN COLORADO'S.

Maybe their offense is better against our defense than we've been expecting, but Oregon's defense is putrid. If our offense shows up to play for the full 60 minutes, I'm not sure that last year's Oregon offense could keep pace.

OF, I think the main difference between 2012/2013 and last year/this year is that in the former years we had DL depth and in the latter years we didn't/don't. That could make the difference, but, again, Oregon's defense is worse than Colorado's.

I'm really hoping this bears out.  But you know...cardiac Cardinal can apply to the fans as well as the team!

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - CrazedZooChimp - 11-10-2015

(11-10-2015, 09:07 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:OK, I guess let me put it more bluntly.  Is there reason to believe Mason as DC in 2012 and 2013 is the reason Stanford throttled Oregon in those years and if he was around still, the throttling would be continuing?

I'm not saying Lance Anderson isn't a fine Defensive Coordinator. Just wondering if he is as good as Mason, or if Mason had some feel for stopping Oregon's offense that Anderson doesn't?  One game does not a trend make, but still curious.

Throttled is a bit of a strong word for that 2012 result.  2013 maybe works.

But any overconfidence I have towards Oregon is completely unrelated to their offense/our defense.  As Stupac said, their defense has been ATROCIOUS.  As I think I mentioned somewhere else, I wouldn't be surprised if we score on every possession.  I think Wilner his "grading the week" post the other day made a decent prediction of how the Oregon game would go (http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/11/09/stanford-football-grading-the-week-68/).

Now I totally admit I thought our O would run all over WSU too, and instead we (kind of) struggled.  If that happens again we might be in trouble, but the chances of that happening seem pretty slim.  Still, I am knocking on wood daily when I make these kinds of predictions...

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - pcgoode - 11-10-2015

Granted our defense isn't perfect, but I think our offence is humming along quite nicely.  Given that Saturday's game is at home with good weather, I would expect the offence to keep rolling, scoring lots of points and keeping the Ducks offence off the field.

A couple of other data points to remember:

1. Per David Lombardi this morning: @LombardiESPN: So Stanford enters its showdown with Oregon featuring the top offense (42.4 ppg) and top defense (22.7 ppg) in the Pac-12.

2. Oregon hasn't beaten any good teams this season yet.


Put me in the pillow-over-head-peeking-out camp - Redrum - 11-10-2015

and yes, I'm that way every game now.  I attended the Northwestern game.  That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.  But Oregon does worry me a lot more than most of the teams we've played.  Looking beyond this game and this season I'm glad the Ducks will have to start developing and integrating a new QB.  Could be we could take 2 in a row from them.  Or not.  Time to get back under the pillow.



Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - Spiny_Norman - 11-10-2015

(11-10-2015, 01:00 PM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:Now I totally admit I thought our O would run all over WSU too, and instead we (kind of) struggled.  If that happens again we might be in trouble, but the chances of that happening seem pretty slim.  Still, I am knocking on wood daily when I make these kinds of predictions...

WSU successfully applied the formula to throttle Stanford - overload the box to stop the run and rely on your DBs to handle the WRs man-to-man.  I think we can expect the same approach from Oregon.  We will also have to block DeForest Buckner, perhaps the best DL in the conference right now.  He leads the Pac 12 in TFLs. 

I think Stanford fans should be prepared for a grind-it-out affair with a lot of 3 and 4 yard runs, some strategic passing and a lot of 3rd down plays.  I'll be (very pleasantly) surprised if Stanford is able to break off some big plays.  Oregon knows how to prepare for Stanford.  In the last three years, Stanford's longest run from scrimmage is 18 yards vs. Oregon. 

This game will be tougher than U.SC.  Like Redrum, I am already anxious.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - Rally - 11-10-2015

I've been nervous for every game over the past 50 years.

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - socalstanfan1 - 11-10-2015

I think pass rush pressure is important, obviously, but against a guy like Adams I suspect it is more important to keep him in the pocket rather than getting the actual sack.  Chances are pretty good that if you go aggressively for the sack he eludes you, gets outside the pocket, and then he's REALLY dangerous.  Keep him in the pocket, get pressure that gradually closes in, and make him throw the ball when surrounded by behemoths. 

Re: Whistling past the grave yard? - CTcard - 11-11-2015

(11-10-2015, 07:34 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:In 2014, with Lance Anderson, Stanford's defense was not nearly as effective against Oregon. 

This is actually something I have thought about a bit, with no great answers.

Overall, Stanford's 2014 defense was the best we have had lately. It had one game where it simply failed - Oregon.
Oregon gained 525 yards on 6.8 yds/play. These were both lower than their season averages, but not by much. These were both the most given up by us by a ton.
In addition, Oregon scored on their first four possesssions (3 TDs, 1 FG) and after an interception, on 3 of their first 4 drives of the second half.
That was not the defense we knew in 2014.

One thing that happened was injuries. Parry started, but my memory is that he couldn't really function and played few snaps. I also vaguely remember Lueders being gimpy, but I might be making that up or getting him confused with somebody else who was dinged up. This was the second game that Phillips played as he had to come in to support the DLine. The secondary was also in some turmoil. Harris had replaced Lyons the week before, but Lyons started again vs Oregon (but not again afterwards). Hoffpaiur was out for the game. 

That's not really enough to explain what happened.

I don't really believe that Mason had some mystical control of Oregon that Anderson lacked.

I don't think we have enough information to figure out anything more. Perhaps Anderson knows what happened, but sometimes it's hard to dig out reasons for individual bad days.


This year, both teams are dramatically different from last year. However it goes, I don't expect the game dynamics to be similar.