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Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - OutsiderFan - 10-07-2015

It seems most of the teams that have special seasons have one game where they pull victory from the jaws of defeat, usually with a late scoring drive to take the lead.  I can't remember Stanford winning any game in the last three years on a last possession TD. 

At Utah in 2013 was very close to being this example, but Stanford failed on that final drive (and cost itself a chance at the last BCS title game in the process).  And 2012 at Oregon was a final play FG, not TD.  They couldn't score on the last drive against Michigan State in the Rose Bowl.  Last year's USC game Hogan fumbled away the ball on the final drive in scoring territory, and he couldn't deliver on the final drive at ND either.  Even the Northwestern game this year, Hogan couldn't get the ball in the EZ on the last possession that could have made it a 3 pt game and allowed time for an onside kick that if recovered could have allowed a tying FG.

To my memory, Hogan is 1-6 (Oregon FG, NU, USC, ND, Utah, MSU) on last possession must have scoring drives, and 0-3 when he needs a TD.  Since it seems teams need one of these "pull one from the fire" scoring drives to vault themselves into the playoff level of no more than one loss teams, this ability to score on the final possession seems important.

Does this 1-6 mark mean Hogan can't deliver in the clutch when absolutely needed, or is he due to lead a come from behind final drive TD?  If the answer is he is due and next time he will deliver, I like Stanford's playoff chances.






Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - Hulk01 - 10-07-2015

Statistical anomaly.  The guy has it.  It takes a team to get into the end zone, and sometimes, you don't.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - BostonCard - 10-07-2015

He certainly did it at the end of the first half of the USC game... It wasn't an end-of-gam scenario, but with time winding down, he drove the team down the field with his arm and legs for a lead-taking TD.

BC

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - washingtonismoney - 10-07-2015

Great teams never have crunch time for their quarterbacks to deliver in.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - CowboyIndian - 10-07-2015

(10-07-2015, 03:03 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:He certainly did it at the end of the first half of the Under Stanford Control game... It wasn't an end-of-gam scenario, but with time winding down, he drove the team down the field with his arm and legs for a lead-taking TD.

In an "end-of-gam" scenario I'd assume he also used his feet.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - DC - 10-07-2015

Hogan is a much better passer now than he was in your other games.  Now he would have a chance to deliver in crunch time.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - terry - 10-07-2015

I can think of four games in which Stanford trailed or was tied in the 4th quarter, and Hogan led the team to a win --

2012 vs. Oregon State -- Stanford came back from a 9-point deficit. Hogan threw the game-winning TD pass with 5:07 remaining in the game.

2012 at Oregon -- Stanford trailed by 7 points late in the 4th quarter. Hogan threw the tying TD pass with 1:35 remaining. Stanford won on a field goal in OT.

2012 vs. UCLA (conference championship) -- Stanford was behind by 7 points in the 4th quarter. Hogan threw the tying TD pass with 11:21 remaining. Stanford got the winning FG with 6:49 remaining.

2014 at Washington -- Stanford and UW were tied late in the 4th quarter. Hogan scored the winning TD on a 5-yard run with 4:29 remaining.

Of course, it's not really fair to limit the analysis to games in which we needed to score in the fourth quarter. That gives Hogan no credit for the games in which he led Stanford to a lead during the first three quarters and we won. I'd rather have a game in which we build a lead after three quarters and end up winning, rather than a game in which we need to score in the 4th quarter.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - 76lsjumb - 10-07-2015

(10-07-2015, 04:15 PM)terry link Wrote:I can think of four games in which Stanford trailed or was tied in the 4th quarter, and Hogan led the team to a win --

2012 vs. Oregon State -- Stanford came back from a 9-point deficit late in the 3rd quarter. Hogan threw the go-ahead, game-winning TD pass with 5:07 remaining in the game.

2012 at Oregon -- Stanford trailed by 7 points late in the 4th quarter. Hogan threw the tying TD pass with 1:35 remaining. Stanford then won on a field goal in OT.

2012 vs. UCLA (conference championship) -- Stanford was behind by 7 points in the 4th quarter. Hogan threw the tying TD pass with 11:21 remaining. Stanford then got the winning FG with 6:49 remaining.

2014 at Washington -- Stanford and UW were tied late in the game. Hogan scored the winning TD on a 5-yard run with 4:29 remaining.

Of course, it's not really fair to limit the analysis to games in which we needed to score in the fourth quarter. That gives Hogan no credit for the games in which he led Stanford to a lead during the first three quarters and we won. I'd rather have a game in which we lead after three quarters and end up winning, rather than a game in which we need to score in the 4th quarter.

Yeah, what he said.  We lost the Fiesta Bowl, too, but it didn't cause me to question Luck's clutchiness...

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - French Rage - 10-07-2015

(10-07-2015, 04:15 PM)terry link Wrote:Of course, it's not really fair to limit the analysis to games in which we needed to score in the fourth quarter. That gives Hogan no credit for the games in which he led Stanford to a lead during the first three quarters and we won. I'd rather have a game in which we build a lead after three quarters and end up winning, rather than a game in which we need to score in the 4th quarter.

True, like with USC this year.  Needing to lead a last minute drive to beat them would surely be the stuff of lore, but by making the drives necessary in the 3rd/4th quarters, with some clutch passes to keep them alive, he made sure such come-from-behind drives were not necessary.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - BostonCard - 10-07-2015

And the end of the second quarter.  That was a clutch drive to end the half, and completely turned the perspective of the game.  Instead of "we are hanging in with USC" at the half, we went into the half leading and getting the ball back to start the second half.

BC

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - OutsiderFan - 10-08-2015

(10-07-2015, 03:05 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Great teams never have crunch time for their quarterbacks to deliver in.

Say Joe Montana, John Elway, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and any number of other QBs said to be great on great teams who are famous for leading 4th quarter come back wins.  Even the best teams have to pull games out of the fire.  Football is far too emotional and too physically demanding of a sport for it to be any other way.  Nobody would argue WSU is a better team than Stanford, but WSU will likely be way more emotionally fired up for that game than Stanford, which could make it a tough game for Stanford that requires last drive heroics from Hogan.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - FarmBoy - 10-08-2015

Quote:Say Joe Montana, John Elway, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and any number of other QBs said to be great on great teams who are famous for leading 4th quarter come back wins.  Even the best teams have to pull games out of the fire.  Football is far too emotional and too physically demanding of a sport for it to be any other way.  Nobody would argue WSU is a better team than Stanford, but WSU will likely be way more emotionally fired up for that game than Stanford, which could make it a tough game for Stanford that requires last drive heroics from Hogan.

And yet, whenever anyone talks about Luck's performance in bringing the team back in the 4th quarter, someone invariably blames him for putting his team in that position in the first place.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - OutsiderFan - 10-08-2015

Some of the greatest sports performers do their best work when they are behind, in do or die situations.  If it takes falling behind to raise your game to a winning level, who cares if you trail in every game you play?

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - stupac2 - 10-08-2015

(10-08-2015, 06:18 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13083.msg133260#msg133260 date=1444255547]
Great teams never have crunch time for their quarterbacks to deliver in.

Say Joe Montana, John Elway, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and any number of other QBs said to be great on great teams who are famous for leading 4th quarter come back wins.  Even the best teams have to pull games out of the fire.  Football is far too emotional and too physically demanding of a sport for it to be any other way.  Nobody would argue WSU is a better team than Stanford, but WSU will likely be way more emotionally fired up for that game than Stanford, which could make it a tough game for Stanford that requires last drive heroics from Hogan.
[/quote]

There's a lot less parity in college. Part of the reason that Hogan doesn't have many game-winning drives is that he hasn't needed to all that many times, we were either blowing teams out or getting blown out. Terry's list of games is probably half of the close games we've played with Hogan at the helm, which is about how many you expect to win. (I could look this up, but laaaazy and it's not really important anyway.)

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - Treebound - 10-08-2015

I do believe we will see 1-2 (ideally no more) clutch Hogan drives this year.  I was very critical of Hogan last year (not knowing what he was facing personally).  The Hogan that emerged in the final three games (especially UCLA) and that has shown up in our 4 wins this year is a much more mature leader.  I think he is ready to step up when necessary and that second quarter drive against sc was a prime example.  He's now checking down and playing comfortably in the pocket.  He knows our complex offense and is making adjustments at the line.  I also think the Occulus program is helping with his decision making times (see the clip from last week's college game day if you can take your eyes off Sam Ponder doing the interview). 

Aside from NW (and I put that L more on coaches not preparing the team for the early, sluggish start), this is looking like the special year many of us circled when we signed all those wonderful offensive linemen.    UCLA will be prepared and likely will send the stunts, but I think between the talent and the schedule line-up (no Utah or ASU), we get to the P12 Championship.  After that, it's going to be about creating our own luck.  The one thing that continues to concern me is our inability to create more turnovers.    Takeaways can really make the difference in those tight games.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - socalstanfan1 - 10-08-2015

Funny, when Hogan first ascended to the starting QB spot I never expected we would see a thread like this precisely because he had bunch of games in which he led the team to victory in the second half of the game. (See Terry's post earlier on this thread). His ability to rally the team seemed like a strength to me. Some of the responsibility for the losses mentioned, in my mind, rests more on the shoulders of other parts of the team. (Defense, Special Teams), though the spotlight will focus more squarely on the QB.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - OutsiderFan - 10-08-2015

(10-08-2015, 09:50 AM)socalstanfan1 link Wrote:Funny, when Hogan first ascended to the starting QB spot I never expected we would see a thread like this precisely because he had bunch of games in which he led the team to victory in the second half of the game. (See Terry's post earlier on this thread). His ability to rally the team seemed like a strength to me. Some of the responsibility for the losses mentioned, in my mind, rests more on the shoulders of other parts of the team. (Defense, Special Teams), though the spotlight will focus more squarely on the QB.

This is why it's hard to believe Hogan doesn't have a couple heroic last minute drives in him.  He has been clutch, albeit not in the final minutes of games Stanford needs to score in to win.  Stanford has really only not been "in" one game in Hogan's career as a starter, at Oregon in 2014.  Other than that and at ASU last year, Stanford has had second half leads in every game he has played in to my memory.

I feel pretty strongly Stanford will have to have at least one last minute scoring drive to win a game this year, and I'd like to think Hogan can do it, but until he does, I will be at least a little bit skeptical.

As an aside, the supporting cast issue definitely is a major factor, but I see many guys on offense who can make big clutch plays in the passing game, more than in 2013.





Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - terry - 10-08-2015

(10-08-2015, 10:37 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:[quote author=socalstanfan1 link=topic=13083.msg133364#msg133364 date=1444323054]
Funny, when Hogan first ascended to the starting QB spot I never expected we would see a thread like this precisely because he had bunch of games in which he led the team to victory in the second half of the game. (See Terry's post earlier on this thread).

I'd like to think Hogan can do it, but until he does, I will be at least a little bit skeptical.
[/quote]

There have been four games in which Hogan led Stanford to a win with a scoring drive in the 4th quarter. I listed them above. Do you give him no credit for those wins?

And I still don't see why you give Hogan no credit for putting points on the board in the first three quarters. Those points count too.

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - Hulk01 - 10-08-2015

He can do it and has done it. 

Re: Can Hogan deliver in crunch time? - BostonCard - 10-08-2015

Let's not forget that last year, trailing 10-7, Hogan led Stanford on a come-from-behind touchdown drive that gave Stanford the lead with 4:31 left against Notre Dame, and it was only blown coverage on 4th and 11 that gave Notre Dame the go-ahead touchdown.  Hard to really knock him for that, unless you want to argue that he should have led Stanford on a drive in the last minute of the game.

In three plus years, Hogan has lost 9 games, total.

BC