Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-26-2022

(09-26-2022, 06:35 PM)M T Wrote:  I wonder if Edward Snowden is now eligible for this draft.  Accepting Russian citizenship at this juncture....

Perhaps Brittney Griner is headed for the front, as well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-27-2022

Based on Russian sources and some Ukrainian sources, the Russian troops in Lyman Yampil area are in danger of being encircled, as Ukrainian troops have pushed North of them, and also S/D river to the East.  Rumors are the Russians pulled out some troops, but left some to fight to the death.  We will see what happens, but Ukrainians have been taking a lot of ground recently around where the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts all intersect.  

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1574743407108542466?s=20&t=afUYMEsznCcysH45I7CDMA]https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1574743407108542466?s=20&t=afUYMEsznCcysH45I7CDMA[/tweet]

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Ultimately I think the goal is Svatove, then I think Starobil's'k. The Oskil river proved to be a stopping point for the Ukrainian offensive before, and a good point to hold defensively for Russia, but now it seems Russians defensive lines have broken, and Ukraine is on the initiative again.  Hopefully more success to come!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-27-2022

Yes Lyman looks screwed. Ukraine will encircle it soon if they have not already.

Russia is sending their strategic missile troops to the front. Maybe they're just cooks and guards etc, but still a sign of the desperation in RuAF for manpower.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574806080877633541?s=20&t=MEaoz4IYormuyKCk1AZ2mA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-27-2022

Interesting video of Ukrainian Su-24s in Kherson doing some low altitude bombing. Near Davydiv Brid. Looks like they hit a tank and maybe some other stuff.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1574818813165670405?s=20&t=_EREfV5qspwHAbHyhs57ww[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-27-2022

Ukraine continues to make progress on the ground. It is not always dramatic progress, but as long as it continues Russia is just delaying the inevitable. The situation appears to be that Putin is trying to demonstrate he is willing to kill as many of his own citizens as it takes to eventually wear Ukraine and its supporters down to the point they can't continue.

It might make some sense for Russia to draft 300K soldiers (not old men and criminals), train them up and in six months field a force that was larger than Ukraine's and well enough armed to resume the artillery war. Whether Russia could indeed do this is questionable, but to attempt it could make some sense. It appears that is not what is happening. The new conscripts are being sent in "penny packets" directly into the fight where they can't be effective. They just add to the casualty count. It was always true, even back in Soviet times, that the Russian army had widely variable standards of competence. There "best" units were very formidable. It went down hill to the "B" and "C" units. This was by design. However even the "C" units were better than what Russia is fielding now (totally untrained troops and equally untrained officers).

The problem is that Putin may believe his only alternative is to keep pounding away, taking the casualties, until "something happens", like the US gives up, Zelenskyy is killed, the gas shortage becomes so acute the EU folds, Ukraine makes a tactical blunder, something, anything. Obviously, Russia can't do this forever. The questions really are "How long can Putin keep killing Russians for no apparent gain?", "How long can Ukraine stand the effects of the war on their country?", and "How long will the west keep focused on this war?".  Even though Russia is the "bigger power", it seems Putin is resorting to the guerrilla tactic of declaring "I am not defeated unless I stop fighting" and Ukraine is in no position to force Russia to do that. Even if Ukraine gets back all it's territory, if Putin is still in power, it ain't over. I must admit that thought is kind of depressing.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-27-2022

(09-27-2022, 11:26 AM)Goose Wrote:  Ukraine continues to make progress on the ground. It is not always dramatic progress, but as long as it continues Russia is just delaying the inevitable. The situation appears to be that Putin is trying to demonstrate he is willing to kill as many of his own citizens as it takes to eventually wear Ukraine and its supporters down to the point they can't continue.

It might make some sense for Russia to draft 300K soldiers (not old men and criminals), train them up and in six months field a force that was larger than Ukraine's and well enough armed to resume the artillery war. Whether Russia could indeed do this is questionable, but to attempt it could make some sense. It appears that is not what is happening. The new conscripts are being sent in "penny packets" directly into the fight where they can't be effective. They just add to the casualty count. It was always true, even back in Soviet times, that the Russian army had widely variable standards of competence. There "best" units were very formidable. It went down hill to the "B" and "C" units. This was by design. However even the "C" units were better than what Russia is fielding now (totally untrained troops and equally untrained officers).

The problem is that Putin may believe his only alternative is to keep pounding away, taking the casualties, until "something happens", like the US gives up, Zelenskyy is killed, the gas shortage becomes so acute the EU folds, Ukraine makes a tactical blunder, something, anything. Obviously, Russia can't do this forever. The questions really are "How long can Putin keep killing Russians for no apparent gain?", "How long can Ukraine stand the effects of the war on their country?", and "How long will the west keep focused on this war?".  Even though Russia is the "bigger power", it seems Putin is resorting to the guerrilla tactic of declaring "I am not defeated unless I stop fighting" and Ukraine is in no position to force Russia to do that. Even if Ukraine gets back all it's territory, if Putin is still in power, it ain't over. I must admit that thought is kind of depressing.

I don't think you are wrong at all, but I do think something major will change if Russia continues to throw bodies at the problem, especially if Ukraine starts taking back land, especially land Russia had control of pre Feb 24th.  I think if Major cities like Luhansk/Horlivka/Donetsk were to fall, there would be a major power struggle in Russia, and something would happen to Putin.  It's clear Putin will never stop until it takes all of Ukraine, but I think it's clear that will never happen.  

I do wonder if Putin's next move would be at acknowledge the pre Feb 24th borders, and withdraw his military from the other occupied lands, in an attempt to give him time to strike a third time.  Who knows, honestly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-27-2022

(09-27-2022, 11:42 AM)Treefence Wrote:  I don't think you are wrong at all, but I do think something major will change if Russia continues to throw bodies at the problem, and still lose territory, especially if Ukraine starts taking back land, especially land Russia had control of pre Feb 24th.  I think if Major cities like Luhansk/Horlivka/Donetsk were to fall, there would be a major power struggle in Russia, and something would happen to Putin.

This is I think what we all hope will happen and bring an end to this situation. It is rational that Russia has a "breaking point".

Quote:It's clear Putin will never stop until it takes all of Ukraine, but I think it's clear that will never happen.

Unfortunately, I don't share your belief it is clear that Ukraine will never let this happen. Ukraine has breaking points too. I don't know where they are, but they exist. Putin is (IMHO) betting those can be reached before Russia's are. We all think he is wrong, but he may not be. In either case, he has no choice but to proceed and hope he is right.

Quote:I do wonder if Putin's next move would be at acknowledge the pre Feb 24th borders, and withdraw his military from the other occupied lands, in an attempt to give him time to strike a third time.  Who knows, honestly.

REVISION: Ukraine would accept only if Russia returned to before 2014 boundaries (returning Crimea). If Putin did this, Ukraine would agree and the west could ensure Ukraine was strong enough to prevent a Russian attack from succeeding (or even being attempted). It would turn Russia into another North Korea with Ukraine as South Korea. Not peace, but not war. I think we would all accept this result as not perfect but far better than continuing hostilities. We all hope Russia will "see the light" and become a liberal democracy but I think we will end up with something well short of that, best case. However, as you say, who knows what happens :-).

Feb 23 boundaries would be a political football. What would the EU say if Ukraine wants to fight on? What would the US say? Putin might try this figuring it would break the alliance. Let's hope he doesn't go there.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Bruce Wang - 09-27-2022

The famous Russian strategy that the other side will run out of bullets before the Russians run out of bodies won't work here.  NATO can keep sending bullets to the Ukrainians.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 09-27-2022

(09-27-2022, 12:37 PM)Publius Wrote:  The famous Russian strategy that the other side will run out of bullets before the Russians run out of bodies won't work here.  NATO can keep sending bullets to the Ukrainians.

I'm no expert but it also seems to me that at this point this is an artillery war much more so then an infantry one. Both sides need more trained artillerymen, tank crews, drone operators, etc rather then just pure numbers. See the above NYT article about the kherson offensive, where there are almost no bullet wounds but lots of shrapenel, explosions, etc.  Adding a bunch of guys that just carry round rusty AK47s won't change much, though I guess it is more manpower for digging trenches/defenses, etc.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-27-2022

Conscription to POW in 3 days. Genius plan by Putin to use up Ukrainian resources taking care of Russian POWs

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574841505998671874?s=20&t=JYBKDt6M9T2Z9pVOUR4aMw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-27-2022

(09-27-2022, 03:40 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Conscription to POW in 3 days. Genius plan by Putin to use up Ukrainian resources taking care of Russian POWs


https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574841505998671874?s=20&t=JYBKDt6M9T2Z9pVOUR4aMw

[joke]I understand lots of Russian soldiers are upset that they can't get a surrender reservation for several weeks. Ukraine POW services are all booked up :-). [/joke]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-27-2022

EDIT- the below video has fake translations....it's pretty funny but it's not legit so I'm going to delete my commentary

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/R82938886/status/1574865224108220423?s=20&t=bvW-T5a2x2bovx88BkWSig[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - needle - 09-27-2022

It’s a joke (fake subtitles, check the account’s other posts).

So utterly chaotic but not (yet) utter chaos.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-27-2022

Oooof, thanks for pointing that out. I guess after seeing UA air force running CAS missions with fast jets in month 7 of this war I was ready to believe anything...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 09-27-2022

Race against time now before the rain and cold take over. I didn’t think Ukraine would be able to get as far as it has already, but soon the weather will make advances even more challenging.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-27-2022

(09-27-2022, 09:08 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Race against time now before the rain and cold take over. I didn’t think Ukraine would be able to get as far as it has already, but soon the weather will make advances even more challenging.

Yes, indeed it will. I am still hoping for something at Kherson/Nova Kakhovka before the end of the year, but who knows? It would indeed be unfortunate if Russia gets off the hook there, as their current situation is dire. The Ukraine just might not have "enough" to capitalize.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 09-27-2022

i'm sure you guys know this already, but explosions have been reported at both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-00232df3f4b4bc89afd47d4707724e33

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 09-28-2022

I was unaware of those explosions so thanks for posting.  Very curious for more info on motives and consequences

Separately, I read that Russia is pulling manpower from Syria, South Ossetia (Georgia), and other places. Could put other things in motion like different Turkey-Syria dynamics.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 09-28-2022

(09-27-2022, 09:08 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Race against time now before the rain and cold take over. I didn’t think Ukraine would be able to get as far as it has already, but soon the weather will make advances even more challenging.

Goose, doesn't winter put an under-supplied defender in an even worse position?  I'm trying to understand the differences between this situation and that of the Germans at Stalingrad.  Could the Ukrainians mount something like the Russian winter offensive from November though February 1942, trapping the overextended Russians?  How is winter going to make it easier to resupply the Russians in Kherson?  So much is said about the rain and mud, but eventually the ground freezes, and it becomes firm enough for vehicles and difficult to even dig a foxhole.  One might think that those conditions would favor a war of movement over a static war.  So why is the conventional wisdom that the Ukrainians can't continue their offensive when winter begins?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-28-2022

(09-28-2022, 07:58 AM)81alum Wrote:  

(09-27-2022, 09:08 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Race against time now before the rain and cold take over. I didn’t think Ukraine would be able to get as far as it has already, but soon the weather will make advances even more challenging.

Goose, doesn't winter put an under-supplied defender in an even worse position?  I'm trying to understand the differences between this situation and that of the Germans at Stalingrad.  Could the Ukrainians mount something like the Russian winter offensive from November though February 1942, trapping the overextended Russians?  How is winter going to make it easier to resupply the Russians in Kherson?  So much is said about the rain and mud, but eventually the ground freezes, and it becomes firm enough for vehicles and difficult to even dig a foxhole.  One might think that those conditions would favor a war of movement over a static war.  So why is the conventional wisdom that the Ukrainians can't continue their offensive when winter begins?

Ukraine can and will continue their offensive throughout the winter. The problem for both sides is that infantry can't spend too much time in the open or they will freeze. It is also real cold inside armored vehicles, even if the heaters are working. As you point out, digging new fighting positions becomes much more difficult. This all favors the defender who can stay inside existing structures and who has already created fighting positions. The defender can also rotate troops more easily to keep them warm. That doesn't mean Ukraine can't advance, it just means they will be cold and miserable doing so and can't use lots of infantry in the process. Under "normal" circumstances the poor weather would also make using air support very difficult, but so far in this war air support hasn't been much of a factor.

The "big deal" here really is the assumption that Russia would evacuate Kherson if they could. That is what a dispassionate military observer would probably recommend. Their supply lines are very tenuous (inadequate) and there is really no tactical advantage to hanging on there. One could argue there is a strategic reason in that if Russia intends to advance to Odessa they must have Kherson, but at present they are in no position to do so. Putin may not see it that way however. In any case, if/when the river freezes Russia can then (at least in theory) easily supply Kherson or easily withdraw from Kherson because they won't need bridges to do so. At that point Ukraine mostly forfeits the advantages they have gained from controlling the GLOCs by fire. This gives Russia the ability to get out of a real bad situation without losing lots of troops. We don't want that outcome. It also isn't for sure the river will freeze hard enough and long enough to allow withdrawal/relief of Kherson. Still, capturing Kherson before that is even a possibility would be better than waiting to find out. It just may not be possible.

FWIW, the Russian winter offensive near Stalingrad was made possible by the river freezing. At that point Russia was able to move supplies and troops to the right bank easily. Before that, the Russians in Stalingrad were told "You must fight like there is nothing to the east of the river". After that, there was plenty east of the river and it was going west.

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