Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-20-2022

Assuming tomorrow we get a recording of Putin's speech, with limited mobilization, connected swift referendums and Russia recognizing these territories, what do we see the west do in retaliation?  It'd be nice if there was an equal and opposite reaction of escalation that includes new versions of arms, possibly announced training for western tanks, ATACMS, and officially transferring MiG 29's, SU 27's.  I wonder if we just see an escalation of sanctions, which would be quite frustrating.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-20-2022

Biden has also explicitly stated that the Us would step in to defend Taiwan (three times by my count), which has had to be walked back.  He has also armed Ukraine pretty aggressively, while, as you have noted, setting some limits to what we will do.  We have also crossed those lines on occasion (eg with HIMARS), or have allowed other countries to quietly skirt them (for example, by supplying airplane parts that could be easily reassembled).

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 09-20-2022

(09-20-2022, 08:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Biden has also explicitly stated that the Us would step in to defend Taiwan (three times by my count), which has had to be walked back.  He has also armed Ukraine pretty aggressively, while, as you have noted, setting some limits to what we will do.  We have also crossed those lines on occasion (eg with HIMARS), or have allowed other countries to quietly skirt them (for example, by supplying airplane parts that could be easily reassembled).

BC

FWIW, the “Boil the frog” strategy has thus far armed Ukraine well, caused immense damage to Russian armed forces, all without involving NATO in the war. Despite taking a refreshingly open communication approach about the conflict (especially during the buildup) He’s also shown an ability to keep info under wraps to maximize effect, like with the HARMS. 

Could he have gotten away with a more aggressive approach in terms of more:bigger guns faster? Maybe. But it’s not a provable argument. I know I’m rooting for ATACMS, Abrams, F16s et Al, but I’d say this far the administration has earned the benefit of the doubt.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - thatboy - 09-20-2022

I don't know what this means, but it seems ominous:

All NATO airplanes around Ukraine have turned off their transponders for the first time since the war
https://twitter.com/felix_nuno/status/1572377515020124161?s=46&t=b_0Js07ESd8W8EhMdViWVA


It has something to do with Putin's upcoming speech, I would imagine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-20-2022

ISW’s assessment…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1572419574934679552?s=46&t=H5BY1pa0zojrbVOzecvc5w[/tweet]

I thought the new legislation was interesting.  Russian troops surrendering to Ukraine may not want to be freed; being a PoW might be less bad than getting thrown into a Russian prison for 10 years.

BC

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A couple more assessments (read full threads)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1572175330147966976?s=46&t=mgmVHWRn4DbCf_sDX7SVSQ[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1572183792877707270?s=46&t=mgmVHWRn4DbCf_sDX7SVSQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 09-20-2022

(09-20-2022, 09:10 PM)thatboy Wrote:  I don't know what this means, but it seems ominous:

All NATO airplanes around Ukraine have turned off their transponders for the first time since the war
https://twitter.com/felix_nuno/status/1572377515020124161?s=46&t=b_0Js07ESd8W8EhMdViWVA


It has something to do with Putin's upcoming speech, I would imagine.

I could see that as a precaution before attacking Russian aircraft if Putin were expected to say he is using/used nukes.

I could also see it as a precaution if a regime change was anticipated. 

It could also just be a prelude to an offensive by Ukraine. 

(After I read it here, neither CNN nor Google News included it.  I’m not sure if that means it is unconfirmed or just that it is beddy-bye time for East Coast journalists.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-21-2022

So Russia says it will add 300,000 "troops" to the fight in Ukraine. My understanding is these are A) people who don't want to fight; C) Criminals taken from prison; C) Barely or poorly trained; and whatever their status, poorly equipped and supported by weak logistics.

So the question is out of this 300,000 number, what is it really in terms of capable fighters? I mean will 50% refuse to fight or be beaten like Kent State against Alabama this week? The 300,000 number sounds significant, but based on Russia's past behavior, this is just more propaganda puffery designed to make Russia look way stronger than it really is.

If it was 300,000 capable fighters, Ukraine might draft every man under 50 to fight (as my developer in Ukraine suggested would happen), but that seems less likely now given how things have evolved for Ukraine since July.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-21-2022

Like non-response error is determined by assessing the answers of the last people to respond to a survey as proxy for those who skip completely, Russia's mobilization force is not going to be very formidable.  Because if you have people fleeing the country to avoid fighting, the people you are getting at this point are not going to be very enthused to fight.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/21/ukraine-news-russia-war-putin-counter-offensive-mobilisation/

[tweet]https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 09-21-2022

(09-21-2022, 06:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Like non-response error is determined by assessing the answers of the last people to respond to a survey as proxy for those who skip completely, Russia's mobilization force is not going to be very formidable.  Because if you have people fleeing the country to avoid fighting, the people you are getting at this point are not going to be very enthused to fight.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/21/ukraine-news-russia-war-putin-counter-offensive-mobilisation/

[tweet]https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194[/tweet]

Just read an article which I now can't find that said flights from Russia to Turkey and I think Armenia are fully sold out for days and prices rising.  Those two countries do not require a Visa.  Prices for some flights are now over $5,000 dollars one-way.  The younger Russians are voting with their feet it would seem.  They apparently are not lining up for enlistment.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-21-2022

(09-21-2022, 06:41 AM)GK3 Wrote:  

(09-21-2022, 06:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Like non-response error is determined by assessing the answers of the last people to respond to a survey as proxy for those who skip completely, Russia's mobilization force is not going to be very formidable.  Because if you have people fleeing the country to avoid fighting, the people you are getting at this point are not going to be very enthused to fight.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/21/ukraine-news-russia-war-putin-counter-offensive-mobilisation/

[tweet]https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194[/tweet]

Just read an article which I now can't find that said flights from Russia to Turkey and I think Armenia are fully sold out for days and prices rising.  Those two countries do not require a Visa.  Prices for some flights are now over $5,000 dollars one-way.  The younger Russians are voting with their feet it would seem.  They apparently are not lining up for enlistment.

The strategic, long-term damage Putin is doing to Russia is quite impressive. He's managed to:

- Fail to take Ukraine after claiming it would be his in three days of fighting
- Wipe out his most capable fighting forces
- Demonstrate how weak those forces are
- Expand NATO to include Finland and Sweden
- Line him and his collaborators up for war crimes prosecutions
- Suffocate and shrink Russia's economy through crushing economic sanctions
- Cut off Russia from high technology needed to compete globally
- Run sham referendums to claim Ukraine territory that no country in the world will recognize
- Push the youngest and brightest minds out of the country, leaving it with an aging and shrinking population

I'm sure I've missed more, but this is a pretty good start. It's really pathetic that nobody in Russia is capable of sacking the guy. Keeping Vlad in power is like giving a vote of confidence and contract extension to Walt Harris instead of firing him. Russians have no self-esteem if they think they can't do any better and/or are too afraid to stand up to a bully.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Bruce Wang - 09-21-2022

(09-21-2022, 06:55 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  I'm sure I've missed more, but this is a pretty good start. It's really pathetic that nobody in Russia is capable of sacking the guy. Keeping Vlad in power is like giving a vote of confidence and contract extension to Walt Harris instead of firing him. Russians have no self-esteem if they think they can't do any better and/or are too afraid to stand up to a bully.

The world would be better off if Russia's dicktator was the kind of person that would punt on third down.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-21-2022

Some pretty underwhelming protests going on in Russia.  Until they start resisting the police, it won't amount to anything...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-21-2022

Wow a number of Azovstal/Mariupol defenders have been released, including the Azov regiment's commanders.  This also includes a number of international volunteers who had been sentenced to death by the so called DPR.  This might hint at the level of prisoners that Ukraine captured in the Kharkiv offensive.  I wonder if Putin was hoping the timing of his announcement of mobilization would hide this news, because this is going to piss off a lot of Russian bloggers.  I honestly never thought we'd see most of these people again.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-21-2022

Yes, the Russian nationalist bloggers are pissed about the Azovstal prisoner swap. Dont think there are many Russians who are happy about Putin and the direction of the country.

Ukraine apparently traded generals captured in Izyum in addition to previously captured disgraced Pro-Putin Ukrainian MP Medvedchuk.

The Azovstal commanders are going to Turkey for the duration of the war as a condition of the release. Awesome news.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-21-2022

Yeah, lots of unhappy Russians…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1572697479149240321?s=46&t=G3w4ldjIxFEiB6OZJDLjFA[/tweet]

BC

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WARNING: the following is political in a goes after numbnuts from both sides (ie, the two ends of the horseshoe) kind of way… don’t watch it if you don’t care for that kind of stuff, but I was on the floor laughing.

Read the replies if you didn’t get some of the references (eg the 30 post thread about tires)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kvothethearcane/status/1570910665703059456?s=46&t=G3w4ldjIxFEiB6OZJDLjFA[/tweet]

Happy to delete if you think it’s a bridge too far, but I felt compelled to share on its brilliant comedic value.

NB, sadly, I know more of the references than I care to admit to, but thankfully not all.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-21-2022

Russia is drafting war protestors. Seems like that would be a negative addition to any military.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1572768970834382850?s=20&t=36e_HW6_iBxpSjGG3tpBIQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-21-2022

(09-21-2022, 07:11 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia is drafting war protestors. Seems like that would be a negative addition to any military.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1572768970834382850?s=20&t=36e_HW6_iBxpSjGG3tpBIQ[/tweet]

The best thing to break up angry protesters is to arm them…

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 09-22-2022

The world & maybe Russian citizens would rise up if Russia started shooting protesters.

This way, Russia gets to claim they are deserters when they shoot them.  Yeah, that'll teach the next group of dissidents not to protest.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-22-2022

Unfortunately this 300,000 conscripts is not really a big deal. Consider https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization. In 2021 Russia drafted 261,000 men from a pool of 1.2 million available candidates. These "troops" serve for one year. In Soviet times the draft was for two years. The joke was that the duty of conscripts in their first year was to be abused by the conscripts who were in their second year. Similarly, the duty of conscripts in their second year was to abuse the conscripts in their first year. Now, since there are no second-year conscripts, nobody does anything. The conscripts get almost no real military training and pretty much can't do anything but manual labor. Fortunately, given the Russian army's poor logistics, plenty of manual labor is needed.

In theory, Putin can get most of his 300,000 "new" conscripts simply by not releasing the "class of 2021", which I am sure is the plan. Unfortunately, quite a few of them got themselves killed, but at least 200K remain. In theory, Putin can get himself another 500K or so troops simply by recalling the class of 2020 and the class of 2019. These "troops" are presumably the ones that have had the most recent "training". I suspect it is going to be pretty hard to round up all those guys, but it can probably be done "well enough" to net at least 100K troops. That is 300K "additional" conscripts and it only affects 19-22 year olds. It really doesn't affect all that many of them either, about 300K out of 3.6 million such people.

The "big deal" in this new conscription effort is that Putin doesn't have to release any years conscripts after a year. That "ramps up" the Russian military by 260K a year with no increase in conscription. The other factor is that by declaring the Donbas and Kherson Oblast as part of Russia, Putin can send these conscripts there and they can't refuse, which until now they could. This is what really "matters" in the new regulations.

I think nobody should believe that this will not be a net plus for the Russian military. It will allow them to compensate for their manpower intensive logistics chain to a large extent. It will also release more competent troops who are now used in the GLOCs. This group will slightly increase Russia's military capability directly. They are doing it for a reason.

That said, there are certainly down sides. First, these conscripts will suffer casualties, probably disproportionately to their numbers and job description, because they lack training and discipline. These losses will get noticed by society. Putin will of course try to at least delay if not prevent the information from being spread, but it will be spread. Second, these conscripts themselves need food, fuel, and shelter. That adds to the logistics burden. Third, these conscripts will have even lower morale than the Russian soldiers. They will also be unable to react quickly to battlefield reverses or successes. A Ukrainian breakthrough like the recent one would result in massive KIA/POW statistics of guys who didn't get the word and wouldn't know what to do if they did.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-22-2022

Putin getting couped is seeming more and more plausible. This was a fun article about the history of Kremlin coups.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/coups-kremlin

Death of Stalin is more fun though. Would be really awesome if Putin gets a bullet to the dome after a show trial.

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