Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-14-2022

ISW is pro-Ukraine, but they are pretty conservative about their assessments.  Lack of an assessment of operational control doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, any more than rumors on twitter about Ukraine capturing this town or that mean it did.

But the general assessment that Ukraine’s progress in Kherson is slow is probably accurate.  We aren’t see a Kharkiv-like rout.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-14-2022

(09-14-2022, 01:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  ISW is pro-Ukraine, but they are pretty conservative about their assessments.  Lack of an assessment of operational control doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, any more than rumors on twitter about Ukraine capturing this town or that mean it did.

But the general assessment that Ukraine’s progress in Kherson is slow is probably accurate.  We aren’t see a Kharkiv-like rout.

BC

True, and we won't unless Russia simply runs. The terrain in that area is completely open. There are few places to conceal a line of advance. Ukraine generally isn't advancing from the town they are in to the next one until they have softened the Russians in it up to the point they can't do much damage. It is a very conservative "station-to-station" offense. I think (obviously I don't "know") that this indicates Ukraine is pretty confident Russia is doomed in Kherson city and Ukraine simply doesn't want to make a mistake and lose too many people. If Russia shows signs of aggression this conservative approach may change. Ukraine would like to have the west bank before it snows if at all possible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 09-14-2022

(09-14-2022, 07:39 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-state-media-host-calls-150816407.html
The scapegoating begins. There have been several similar accusations in the last few days. While I don't expect this particular surge to have results, it does remind the "generals" that Putin isn't going to accept any blame he can send their way. It is a warning. However, this and similar warning may backfire, convincing the upper levels of the FSB that Putin has to go to "ensure the security of the state".

UPDATE:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-seeks-avoid-blame-kharkiv-074600413.html
No question the path to blaming the generals has been chosen. Sooner than I thought. For some reason I don't think they are just going to sit there and take it. Further, I think the FSB will see that conflict at the top is not what Russia needs right now. Perhaps I am being over-optimistic, but it is in keeping with Russian history that "third parties" actually decide when a change at the top happens, not the people or the army.

Some thought provoking comments.  What "3rd Parties" do you envision willing to act against Putin?  I see the Oligarchs only interested in keeping what they have and if they can't get more, leave.  My thoughts are that most of their assets are outside of Russian political boundaries at this point.  What other power center exists in Russia outside of the Army?  I don't see the Oligarchs as being able to stop a rebellion by the military.  Is the FSB strong enough?  A charismatic General or two might change the picture significantly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-14-2022

(09-14-2022, 02:06 PM)GK3 Wrote:  Some thought provoking comments.  What "3rd Parties" do you envision willing to act against Putin?  I see the Oligarchs only interested in keeping what they have and if they can't get more, leave.  My thoughts are that most of their assets are outside of Russian political boundaries at this point.  What other power center exists in Russia outside of the Army?  I don't see the Oligarchs as being able to stop a rebellion by the military.  Is the FSB strong enough?  A charismatic General or two might change the picture significantly.

I think the FSB is strong enough. The FSB also has elite military units attached that are considered "reliable", i.e. they will do what the FSB says. However, as you point out there are few power centers that operate "nationwide" in Russia. The military is one. The FSB is another, and it has the ability to not only operate nationwide but to do so in absolute secret. The military doesn't have that because it is penetrated (by design) with FSB operatives. I am sure the FSB would take advantage of a charismatic general but would not install him as the "leader". They would ensure it was somebody publicly credible but also at least temporarily "reliable".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-14-2022

All eyes on Alexander Bortnikov, then?  Either way, it would be one of the siloviki, but most of them are very close to Putin, including Bortnikov, who comes from St. Petersburg KGB background.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 09-14-2022

I'd be delighted if someone in the Russian elite knocked off Putin, but there is no certainty that even his removal would be the remedy for the current situation, let alone a long term solution.  Would Hitler's assassination have yielded a more pliable Himmler?  It seems to me that the dissent in Russia is more in the way of people who are upset that Putin is losing, not that he went to war in the first place.  They want a bigger war, more brutality, fewer limits yet.  It reminds me of the famous opinion poll during Vietnam in which the majority of Americans said they were in favor of ending the war.  But when asked, the majority of them wanted to end it by winning it.

Russia needs a democratic revolution, not a coup from above.  Something more like the Orange Revolution or the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine--or perhaps a whole series of such revolutions.  That is pie-in-the-sky at the moment, but one can hope.  For the broad Russian public to get behind regime change would require a degree of anger and disillusionment that propaganda could not efface.  Perhaps if Putin instituted a draft, the casualties increase as Ukraine gets better and better at war, the Russian economy goes deeper into freefall, and more and more territories are lost to the point that the war seems completely hopeless.  And while it all seems highly unprobable, Russia has shown the capacity to overthrow out-of-touch and irrational autocrats before.  Down with Czar Putin.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-14-2022

(09-14-2022, 08:01 PM)81alum Wrote:  It reminds me of the famous opinion poll during Vietnam in which the majority of Americans said they were in favor of ending the war.  But when asked, the majority of them wanted to end it by winning it.

Couldn't help but think of this. . ..

https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/04a62356-4942-4f83-82a0-e772a6f4bc97

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-14-2022

Zelensky apparently made a surprise appearance in Izium today, a city that had been under Russian occupation less than a week ago.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 09-15-2022

(09-14-2022, 11:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Zelensky apparently made a surprise appearance in Izium today, a city that had been under Russian occupation less than a week ago.

He was just trying to avoid the traffic in Kyiv.

Ukraine is saying that Russia targeted a dam with 8 missiles.  I hope that's on a river the Russians need to cross to retreat.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 09-15-2022

(09-14-2022, 08:01 PM)81alum Wrote:  I'd be delighted if someone in the Russian elite knocked off Putin, but there is no certainty that even his removal would be the remedy for the current situation, let alone a long term solution.  Would Hitler's assassination have yielded a more pliable Himmler?  It seems to me that the dissent in Russia is more in the way of people who are upset that Putin is losing, not that he went to war in the first place.  They want a bigger war, more brutality, fewer limits yet.  It reminds me of the famous opinion poll during Vietnam in which the majority of Americans said they were in favor of ending the war.  But when asked, the majority of them wanted to end it by winning it.

Russia needs a democratic revolution, not a coup from above.  Something more like the Orange Revolution or the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine--or perhaps a whole series of such revolutions.  That is pie-in-the-sky at the moment, but one can hope.  For the broad Russian public to get behind regime change would require a degree of anger and disillusionment that propaganda could not efface.  Perhaps if Putin instituted a draft, the casualties increase as Ukraine gets better and better at war, the Russian economy goes deeper into freefall, and more and more territories are lost to the point that the war seems completely hopeless.  And while it all seems highly unprobable, Russia has shown the capacity to overthrow out-of-touch and irrational autocrats before.  Down with Czar Putin.

Has there ever been a real Russian Democracy?  We have gotten pretty good at proving that you can create a viable democracy in a society who simply isn't ready for it and doesn't really want it.  
An interesting discussion of this concept can be found here:  https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 09-15-2022

(09-15-2022, 05:45 AM)GK3 Wrote:  Has there ever been a real Russian Democracy?  We have gotten pretty good at proving that you can create a viable democracy in a society who simply isn't ready for it and doesn't really want it.  

Isn't that the old joke?  What's the difference between an American slave and a Russian slave?  The American slave wants freedom and the Russian slave wants to be a slave master.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-15-2022

It seems to be confirmed that Kyselivka was not liberated by Ukraine.  It came from one official, but the head of Mykolaiv oblast reported.  It seems since the Kharkiv/Oskil offensive, little has changed.  It could be due to Ukraine regrouping, or Russia establishing defensive lines East of Oskil, time will tell.  Russia had made some gains out from Donetsk city, including taking a very will fortified area called Anthill, but Andrew Perpetua is reporting Ukraine took it back, and Russia is back to the pre Feb 24th lines, save for Pisky which appears to be a no mans land for now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-15-2022

(09-15-2022, 05:45 AM)GK3 Wrote:  Has there ever been a real Russian Democracy?  We have gotten pretty good at proving that you can't create a viable democracy in a society who simply isn't ready for it and doesn't really want it.  
An interesting discussion of this concept can be found here:  https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/

The discussion is interesting but IMHO it omits the serious role that economics played in the end of Russian democracy. Short summary: The Russian economy functioned at all only because of "state credits", which were financial instruments created out of thin air that the various large economic entities in Russia used to finance their operations. An example was the coal mines in the Donbas paid for the shoring timber they got from Russia with a state credit which was then used by the timber suppliers to ... None of this was "on the books" and NOBODY knew the total extent of it. It was over 50% of economic activity.

You can't "restructure" what you don't know about. This is a very large subject that I obviously can't cover in a post but it basically doomed what both Gorbachev and Yeltsin tried to do. It is also arguable that both Belarus and Ukraine would have remained in the Russian Federation if they had not expected massive subsidies from Germany and the US (which the Baltic Republics and Poland did get). This aid was never promised. The US danced around the requests and tried to lower expectations but it didn't work. In point of fact the required aid would have far exceeded what the US and Germany could provide. The result was three states whose economies were in shambles and nobody really understood why. That fact discredited democracy in the eyes of many Russians. It obviously wasn't working and they needed "something else". Exactly what was unknown, so we have three states that evolved significantly differently.

Obviously, there are many sociological and historical factors that also help explain why a non-democratic solution was acceptable in Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Ukraine rose above them, Belarus is still sorting it out, and Russia has Putin. However, "It's the economy, stupid" is a very major factor in how Russia got Putin and not somebody else. That isn't going to change quickly. Russia isn't going to peacefully "revert" to democracy unless and until it is rich enough to believe it can afford to try again. Putin will be replaced by an equally powerful leader unless Russia totally implodes. In that case, anything is possible and I don't think we want to do that experiment. Tracking down all those nuclear weapons sold to the highest bidder would be a real pain.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 09-15-2022

The fact that this thread has drifted variously to Taiwan, WWII Italy, the Iraq War, and 1990s Russia in the last day or two tells us everything we need to know about the current state of affairs.  There is likely little or no reported movement along the front lines anywhere.  Ukraine is consolidating gains, while Russia is licking its wounds and establishing new defensive lines.  That doesn't mean nothing is happening now or that this apparent freeze along the front lines will last.  There may be ranged attacks, special forces operations behind enemy lines, and other events that are leading to attrition and changes in strategic posture, but it's not being well reported, which is unsurprising given the level of operational security Ukraine displayed in the last offensive.  We'll see if Ukraine can muster what's needed for one more offensive before the inclimate weather kicks in.  I note that a large number of Ukrainian troops on the front lines in Kherson oblast are on the West side of the Inhulets River, so getting them into the battle probably would require overcoming some of the same obstacles that Russia faces if its troops want to retreat.  At this point, I would not be surprised by any number of different twists or turns, or by the lack of any real movement for a bit of time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-15-2022

No wonder the Russian front melted…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/15/letters-left-behind-by-demoralized-russian-soldiers-they-fled/

Quote:About 10 days before Ukrainian forces retook the city of Izyum last weekend, Russian troops stationed here were so demoralized that they drafted letters begging their superiors to dismiss them from their roles.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-15-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-lawmakers-assail-hungary-attacking-112534371.html
And another one bites the dust. Democracy does have it's issues in previously Warsaw Pact nations as well as in the ex-Soviet states. Poland, for all it's support of Ukraine also has had some brushes with undemocratic judicial "issues". Not nearly as bad as Hungary however. Hungary is a real problem for the EU, and I am not sure how they can deal with it. So far ignoring the issue hasn't worked. I suspect declarations like in the link won't either.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-15-2022

So Xi and Putin met, and the official Chinese readout doesn’t mention Ukraine, and Putin admits that China “raised concerns”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-and-russias-vladimir-putin-to-showcase-growing-ties-11663243097?mod=djemwhatsnews

Probably something like “you f-king imbecile; you are making us look bad and emboldening our renegade province to resist assimilating.  But thanks for the cheap oil.”

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-15-2022

Thread speculating on why no ATACMS.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1570619239572344833?s=21&t=6jxYkZ3dDz0mrGpGojfDHw[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 09-16-2022

The Ukrainian resistance making itself known by assassinating two pro-Kremlin Ukrainians.

Putin's election chief & top prosecutor assassinated in twin blasts by 'saboteurs’ in latest killings to rock tyrant | The US Sun (the-sun.com)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 09-16-2022

Local official of an occupying army has got to be one of the worst jobs on the planet. At least if you’re infantry, you’re allowed to find cover from incoming fire. These officials cannot just hide in a bunker and still do their jobs, so they are out in the open waiting to be assassinated. Of course, given the reality that these officials have a such a short life expectancy, Russia will never be able to govern effectively in occupied Ukraine. This is one of the many reasons that long term exploitive occupation is a bad idea.

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