Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 05:30 PM)Treefence Wrote:  It could be a signal that Ukraine is more willing to lose some of these, maybe because Turkey has quietly decided to help provide more, or possibly Ukraine is feeling pressure to show more results to the west.  Either way, I hope they cause the Russians nightmares...

Nothing quiet about it. Ukraine took delivery of 50 TB2s that were on order previously during the month of July. The owner of the factory that makes them is on record that he wants Ukraine to win and will continue delivering as many as possible. Baring political winds changing, Ukraine has a pretty good supply of TB2s assured. At some point it may be possible for Ukraine to build such a drone under license, but right now is probably not a good time to do tech transfer.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-04-2022

Quote:Really appreciate the wealth of knowledge, experience and opinion you've provided over the last six months. Learned a lot. Would love an opportunity to discuss and debate your political opinion above, but alas. . . .

Sorry, that was probably too gratuitous an aside for trying to stay out of a political discussion on here. I could link the pro-Russian AF and anti-US intervention in Ukraine statements from the three people I mentioned but I think it would just be a diversion, you're welcome to find them and come to your own conclusions of course about their motivations.

I'd be willing to have that discussion over beers at a Stanford tailgate (in a very limited fashion) but talking politics with strangers on the internet I don't think usually ends up changing minds or really educating anyone beyond their priors.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 05:44 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

Quote:Really appreciate the wealth of knowledge, experience and opinion you've provided over the last six months. Learned a lot. Would love an opportunity to discuss and debate your political opinion above, but alas. . . .

Sorry, that was probably too gratuitous an aside for trying to stay out of a political discussion on here. I could link the pro-Russian AF and anti-US intervention in Ukraine statements from the three people I mentioned but I think it would just be a diversion, you're welcome to find them and come to your own conclusions of course about their motivations.

I'd be willing to have that discussion over beers at a Stanford tailgate (in a very limited fashion) but talking politics with strangers on the internet I don't think usually ends up changing minds or really educating anyone beyond their priors.

I don't pay much attention to extremists on either end. I did find it ironic that "The Squad' and some that you mentioned were the only ones to oppose Biden's bill taking the oligarchs assets and using them to fund the spending on Ukraine. Strange bedfellows, indeed. How did the song go, "Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right. . . ."

Would enjoy the discussion if we make it to a game this year, though doubtful with the family. Unless you make it to Women's Polo. . . .

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 05:38 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(09-04-2022, 05:30 PM)Treefence Wrote:  It could be a signal that Ukraine is more willing to lose some of these, maybe because Turkey has quietly decided to help provide more, or possibly Ukraine is feeling pressure to show more results to the west.  Either way, I hope they cause the Russians nightmares...

Nothing quiet about it. Ukraine took delivery of 50 TB2s that were on order previously during the month of July. The owner of the factory that makes them is on record that he wants Ukraine to win and will continue delivering as many as possible. Baring political winds changing, Ukraine has a pretty good supply of TB2s assured. At some point it may be possible for Ukraine to build such a drone under license, but right now is probably not a good time to do tech transfer.

I missed the July deliveries, I remember them getting a bunch in March, and I know the owner of Baykar is extremely pro Ukrainian. Do you have a link on the recent deliveries?  I know of course they got some via crowdfunding, but 50 is no joke.  I wonder how man Baykar can produce, especially given many other countries are now looking to buy them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-04-2022

(09-04-2022, 07:25 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(09-04-2022, 05:38 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(09-04-2022, 05:30 PM)Treefence Wrote:  It could be a signal that Ukraine is more willing to lose some of these, maybe because Turkey has quietly decided to help provide more, or possibly Ukraine is feeling pressure to show more results to the west.  Either way, I hope they cause the Russians nightmares...

Nothing quiet about it. Ukraine took delivery of 50 TB2s that were on order previously during the month of July. The owner of the factory that makes them is on record that he wants Ukraine to win and will continue delivering as many as possible. Baring political winds changing, Ukraine has a pretty good supply of TB2s assured. At some point it may be possible for Ukraine to build such a drone under license, but right now is probably not a good time to do tech transfer.

I missed the July deliveries, I remember them getting a bunch in March, and I know the owner of Baykar is extremely pro Ukrainian. Do you have a link on the recent deliveries?  I know of course they got some via crowdfunding, but 50 is no joke.  I wonder how man Baykar can produce, especially given many other countries are now looking to buy them.

I cannot find the link for the July deliveries. This link https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-tb2-bayraktar-drones-fifty-received is for drones delivered by 28 June. Ukraine made a big order in April. As noted in the linked article, Ukraine supposedly has 100% of the current factory production. I guess everybody else will have to wait. I am virtually certain I read that there was such a delivery during July, but I can't find the link yet. I will keep looking.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/19/turkish-firm-wont-supply-uavs-widely-used-by-ukraine-to-russia reiterates the commitment.

Well, I am closer.
https://gagadget.com/en/156947-baykar-technologies-has-exported-96-bayraktar-strike-drones-with-ukraine-as-the-main-buyer/
96 exported on 18 August. I expect the 22 to Poland actually ended up in Ukraine, though I don't have a source for that.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 09-04-2022

I don't doubt it, Goose, Turkey has been stepping up their arms deliveries recently, including 50 BMC Kirpi MRAPs, with a pledge of 200 total.  Erdogan himself said Crimea is Ukraine and must be returned, I'm guessing Putin didn't like hearing that, because keeping Crimea is probably the bare minimum that Putin needs out of this.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-05-2022

(09-04-2022, 07:42 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  

(09-04-2022, 04:00 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Your friend has swallowed right wing propaganda planted by Russia 

Please spare us the politicizing of trying to tie what the Russian government states to the "right wing". Sheesh.

You might not like this fact, but that doesn't make it any less of a fact. Probably a good idea to not challenge me or anyone else further on this topic because there are endless receipts.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-05-2022

OF, probably a good idea to back off.  Whether Putin and Russia is ideologically right wing or left wing is not really relevant.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 09-05-2022

Let's talk geo-political strategy. 

Came across a fascinating video breaking down how G7 is going to cap Russian oil prices using shipping insurance to make it happen, and all the implications of this move. It's quite fascinating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2p6X_upSXQ

The G7 is basically saying we aren't going to stop you from selling oil because that will ruin the global economy for the rest of us, but we didn't start an unprovoked war, so we're going to force you guys to accept way less than market price for the oil we allow on the market from you. Russia is bluffing that it will stop selling oil at a lower price IMO, and I doubt any country that values its port, fishing, and tourism industries is accepting Russian insured oil tankers.

This is major economic warfare from the G7 against Russia. The beauty of it is the countries buying cheap Russian oil aren't going to want to pay anything higher than the capped price, and Russia can't turn off its wells if it refuses to sell at a cheap price, because capping them and then starting them later is prohibitively expensive. This is 3-D chess by the G7, manipulating market forces to deal a major blow to a lawless terrorist country without firing a physical shot. Has the potential to savage the Russian economy, completely eliminate its ability to wage war in Ukraine, and destabilize the Russian government politically so a legit opposition movement can begin.

All Ukraine needs is a stalemate on the physical battlefield - which it seems to have at minimum - and Russia will continue weakening.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-05-2022

It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.

If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.

How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-31/hottest-commodity-in-the-oil-industry-elements-by-javier-blas?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#xj4y7vzkg

Quote: Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-05-2022

(09-05-2022, 06:34 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.

If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.

How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-31/hottest-commodity-in-the-oil-industry-elements-by-javier-blas?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#xj4y7vzkg

Quote: Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

No scheme to cap prices is going to absolutely work. Market forces are basically irresistible. You can dam them up for a while, but any such dam will leak and eventually burst. The good news is that this dam doesn't have to last forever. One good side effect could be the (very belated) realization that these ship-to-ship transfers of various "contraband" have been a big problem for a long time. The enforcement of export regulations is often undermined that way, as well as allowing "bogus" products to enter the legitimate trade with false paperwork. The US and other countries have the enforcement ability to greatly restrict these activities but it requires the legal authority from the ships country of registry. We have not done nearly enough networking/arm twisting to force such countries to realize their continued enabling of illicit trade will cost them more than it is worth. Many of these countries are actually friendly to western trade, they just have a side business of registering any ship that wants it. If they will allow "reasonable" stopping of ships to be searched for fraudulent cargo based upon reasonable evidence, we have no problem with such registration policies.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-05-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1566824477648109568?s=21&t=gfCETpX15SBKnfellqEOrw[/tweet]

This feels a bit like the offensive by the Russians in the Donbas earlier in the summer.Slow progress, but progress nonetheless.  I’m starting to think that the Ukrainians might be able to capture Kherson.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 09-05-2022

I don't believe in coincidences.  

In today's news you have the Zaporizhzhia plant being cut off from the grid, and NOrd Stream being closed.   "the West" with the oil price caps using energy as a weapon on the one hand, and Russia IMO also doing so with increasing aggressiveness.   Long winter . . .

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-05-2022

(09-05-2022, 09:46 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  This feels a bit like the offensive by the Russians in the Donbas earlier in the summer.Slow progress, but progress nonetheless.  I’m starting to think that the Ukrainians might be able to capture Kherson.



BC

Alike in pace perhaps. Different in method. Ukraine isn't using massive artillery barrages to flatten the villages they have retaken. They don't have enough artillery to do that and have no desire to destroy what they wish to return to Ukraine. They are cutting off and outflanking Russian defenders who then retreat. Ukraine is also putting pressure on the GLOCs of the Russians many km behind their lines with HIMARS, air strikes, drone strikes, and "special military operations". As long as Ukraine is in a strong enough tactical position to continue doing that and as long as Russia is willing to retreat, it will keep working. At some point those conditions may not hold.

It may well be that these conditions will continue to the point of liberation of Kherson city. There have been indications in the press that from Russia's (Putin's) point of view, that would certainly be  "a bridge too far :-)". We don't know that though, and they may just bug out. Their tactical situation there wasn't the best from day 1 and has deteriorated greatly in the last couple of months. Russia seems to still be undecided about defending Kherson (and everything else on that side of the river) and an offensive in Donetsk. It appears they may have decided not to decide and will attempt both. We shall see what happens. I am rooting for a collapse in Kherson Oblast (not just the city). If that happens it is Katy bar the Door for Crimea.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-05-2022

Yes, I meant in terms of pace.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 09-05-2022

They may actually be moving quicker. Most of the FIRMS satellite fire detection is showing fires on the Russian side of the lines along large stretches in Kherson. I've seen many videos of different overrun Russian positions. They seem to be moving quickest from the north along the Dnipro. If they can continue their advance there they will have a good chunk of the Russian position surrounded by three sides and a shrinking frontage on the river that they could potentially ferry across.

Ukrainian leadership is doing a good job managing expectations but I think the Kherson offensive is very much going according to plan for Ukraine.

Here's a pretty neat video from Kherson of Ukrainian infantry supported by Turkish Kirpi IFVs and a tank, which engages and turret pops a Russian IFV.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566783630281740291?s=20&t=fbVVtGpULrqIH4QH4MM62g[/tweet]

Ukrainian fighting from the beginning has been a matter of small unit engagements, not large army or corps size engagements, and I think we are seeing that in Kherson as well. Ukraine is sending their most veteran SOF type troops and providing a comparatively high amount of long range fire support to enable lots of hit and run raids against rattled and undersupplied Russian troops and forcing them to retreat. Does Russia have a better fortified second line and will their troops defend it in the weeks ahead will determine if Kherson city falls before winter.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 09-05-2022

(09-05-2022, 04:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  They may actually be moving quicker. Most of the FIRMS satellite fire detection is showing fires on the Russian side of the lines along large stretches in Kherson. I've seen many videos of different overrun Russian positions. They seem to be moving quickest from the north along the Dnipro. If they can continue their advance there they will have a good chunk of the Russian position surrounded by three sides and a shrinking frontage on the river that they could potentially ferry across.

Ukrainian leadership is doing a good job managing expectations but I think the Kherson offensive is very much going according to plan for Ukraine.

Here's a pretty neat video from Kherson of Ukrainian infantry supported by Turkish Kirpi IFVs and a tank, which engages and turret pops a Russian IFV.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566783630281740291?s=20&t=fbVVtGpULrqIH4QH4MM62g

Ukrainian fighting from the beginning has been a matter of small unit engagements, not large army or corps size engagements, and I think we are seeing that in Kherson as well. Ukraine is sending their most veteran SOF type troops and providing a comparatively high amount of long range fire support to enable lots of hit and run raids against rattled and undersupplied Russian troops and forcing them to retreat. Does Russia have a better fortified second line and will their troops defend it in the weeks ahead will determine if Kherson city falls before winter.

Looking quite good. The guys operating here look more like regular army, as most SOF type of troops don't use tanks or IFVs, but for sure there are Ukrainian SOF guys even further forward making sure those Russians remain rattled and under supplied.

While Kherson city is politically the most important objective in the area, the dam and associated highway crossing is arguably the more strategic objective. Possessing that cuts off supplies to all the Russian troops north and west of that point, which is a considerable number. It also threatens the water supply to Crimea. There is lots of opportunity for Ukraine in that direction too. If they can take Kakhovka dam, Russia is well and truly screwed even if the keep Kherson. Ideally Ukraine would hold both ends of the dam, but even one end cuts the road. This obviously means Russian troops cannot retreat that way nor can Kherson be supplied that way.

I don't think Russia has a better fortified defensive line near Kherson, but the retreating forces will create a concentration of combat power. That can make things harder for Ukraine. OTOH, it means these troops need to be "fed and led", which Russia hasn't shown the ability to do reliably. It may depend on 1) whether Russia intends to hold Kherson and 2) whether the troops they have to do it are steady enough to do so. The weird thing about this for me is that there are lots of Russian troops in the direction of Mykolaiv that rely on supply via Kherson. I don't see any reports of those troops evacuating. That would tend to make one believe Russia is very confident it can hold Kherson and keep supplies moving on the M14 and associated railways. We already know there are big problems on the railways and it isn't obvious the M14 can be kept open even if Kherson doesn't actually fall. If it were me, I would be "concerned".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 09-05-2022

(09-05-2022, 06:34 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.



If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.



How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.



https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-31/hottest-commodity-in-the-oil-industry-elements-by-javier-blas?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#xj4y7vzkg

Quote: Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

I don't follow these events with the detailed knowledge of some of you, but this NYT article made an impression on me 3 days ago--making me wonder how well sanctions of any kind will work in the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/03/world/americas/ships-gps-international-law.html

Quote:How Fake GPS Coordinates Are Leading to Lawlessness on the High Seas

A technology enabling the transmission of fake locations to carry out murky or even illegal business operations could have profound implications for the enforcement of international law.

"...But over the past year, Windward, a large maritime data company that provides research to the United Nations, has uncovered more than 500 cases of ships manipulating their satellite navigation systems to hide their locations. The vessels carry out the deception by adopting a technology that until recently was confined to the world’s most advanced navies. The technology, in essence, replicates the effect of a VPN cellphone app, making a ship appear to be in one place, while physically being elsewhere."

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-06-2022

I wonder if one of the “killer apps” for unnamed drone ships is to tail larger, suspect ships so that they can’t get away with hiding their location.  Also, satellites can help, especially if armed with AI to find and track ships.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 09-06-2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-delay-closure-of-two-nuclear-power-plants-as-energy-crisis-bites-11662400161

Germany will keep two of its nuclear plants open after they were scheduled to close in December.  This seems like a no brained to me, and im hardly a nuclear fanboy.

BC

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