Outside Topic SF Giants 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 11-18-2023
The Giants have roughly $70 million of 2024 salary space to spend.
Here is the shopping list (per MLBtraderumors)…
Ohtani $44MM/12 years - total $528MM
Bellinger $22MM/12 years - total $264MM
Yamamoto $25MM/9 years - total $225MM
Chapman $25MM/6 years - total $150MM
I would take Bellinger, Yamamoto and Chapman over Ohtani plus one of the other three.
Note: this exercise assumes the salaries are spread evenly over the life of the contract.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 11-19-2023
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1700374271' Wrote: 1700374271[/url]']
The Giants have roughly $70 million of 2024 salary space to spend.
Here is the shopping list (per MLBtraderumors)…
Ohtani $44MM/12 years - total $528MM
Bellinger $22MM/12 years - total $264MM
Yamamoto $25MM/9 years - total $225MM
Chapman $25MM/6 years - total $150MM
I would take Bellinger, Yamamoto and Chapman over Ohtani plus one of the other three.
Note: this exercise assumes the salaries are spread evenly over the life of the contract.
Those 2 year one with a player option contracts are biting them in the butt. That’s 30 million they could have.
I don’t see the Giants signing both Yamamoto and Bellinger. I also am hopeful they sign two starting pitchers. Which would mean perhaps Yamamoto and maybe sonny gray. Switch in Lee for Belanger. There’s some savings there.
As for a bat - I think they are going to have to try to get that through a trade.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - OutsiderFan - 11-20-2023
The Giants and Yankees are reportedly "co-favorites" to sign Bellinger. Bellinger is prototypically built for Yankee Stadium.
The Giants have a better shot at getting Bellinger than Judge, but not that much better.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-20-2023
(11-20-2023, 08:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants and Yankees are reportedly "co-favorites" to sign Bellinger. Bellinger is prototypically built for Yankee Stadium.
The Giants have a better shot at getting Bellinger than Judge, but not that much better.
The Yankees really need a star centerfielder who hits left-handed. Problem is that after Arson Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodon, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu, their projected total payroll is nearly $236 million and the tax threshold is $237 million. Giants can effectively outbid the Yankees, and if the Giants whiffed on Ohtani but signed Bellinger, Yamamoto and Lee Jung-Hoo, I wouldn't be unhappy.
Why Yankees must sign Cody Bellinger in MLB Free Agency
And out of curiosity, I'm curious to know if the baseball fans on this board feel that Giancarlo Stanton's 13 year/$325 million contract was worth it. Signed after his 59-home run season, he had a terrific first year with the Yankees, 38 HRs, an even 100 RBIs, 19th in MVP voting. Then came two years of injuries when he barely played, 18 and 23 games. Then a very good year, 35 HRs, 31 the next year, down to 24 as he aged into his 33 year old season. Next year, he'll be 34. He's played 2/3rds of a season the last two years, 78 and 60 RBIs. OPS has declined four years in a row (.894, .887, .870, .759, .695) and is now under .700.
He's not even halfway through his contract. He isn't going to get better and the trend is that he will get worse. Yankee GM is sniping at Stanton "Getting hurt seems to be part of his game."
Was Stanton's enormous contract worth it?
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 11-20-2023
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1700498611' Wrote: 1700498611[/url]']
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1700494134' Wrote: 1700494134[/url]']
The Giants and Yankees are reportedly "co-favorites" to sign Bellinger. Bellinger is prototypically built for Yankee Stadium.
The Giants have a better shot at getting Bellinger than Judge, but not that much better.
The Yankees really need a star centerfielder who hits left-handed. Problem is that after Arson Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodon, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu, their projected total payroll is nearly $236 million and the tax threshold is $237 million. Giants can effectively outbid the Yankees, and if the Giants whiffed on Ohtani but signed Bellinger, Yamamoto and Lee Jung-Hoo, I wouldn't be unhappy.
Why Yankees must sign Cody Bellinger in MLB Free Agency
And out of curiosity, I'm curious to know if the baseball fans on this board feel that Giancarlo Stanton's 13 year/$325 million contract was worth it. Signed after his 59-home run season, he had a terrific first year with the Yankees, 38 HRs, an even 100 RBIs, 19th in MVP voting. Then came two years of injuries when he barely played, 18 and 23 games. Then a very good year, 35 HRs, 31 the next year, down to 24 as he aged into his 33 year old season. Next year, he'll be 34. He's played 2/3rds of a season the last two years, 78 and 60 RBIs. OPS has declined four years in a row (.894, .887, .870, .759, .695) and is now under .700.
He's not even halfway through his contract. He isn't going to get better and the trend is that he will get worse. Yankee GM is sniping at Stanton "Getting hurt seems to be part of his game."
Was Stanton's enormous contract worth it?
No. Sometimes they miss. But if you’re going to be afraid of long-term contracts because of those that failed, then just get out of that market. Because they’ll always be failures. And furthermore, the backend is always going to be iffy at best. But it’s the price of doing business these days.
I’ll ask you a question – do you think the Rangers are happy with their long-term contracts to Semien and Seager? No matter what happens from here on out?
My point is there is always risk associated with long term FA’s. Bellinger even more so. Does he revert to 2021 and 2022? Was ‘23 a fluke year? His hard-hit rate was fairly low after all.
On the other hand was ‘23 part of a recovery and not the ceiling but the floor for the next several years? He cut his strikeouts down in half. Not an easy thing to do. Further, a few years back he was the MVP of the National League. He is very talented. So high risk potentially high reward.
Personally, I’m on the fence. Very tough call.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-20-2023
(11-20-2023, 09:48 AM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1700498611' Wrote: 1700498611[/url]']
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1700494134' Wrote: 1700494134[/url]']
The Giants and Yankees are reportedly "co-favorites" to sign Bellinger. Bellinger is prototypically built for Yankee Stadium.
The Giants have a better shot at getting Bellinger than Judge, but not that much better.
The Yankees really need a star centerfielder who hits left-handed. Problem is that after Arson Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodon, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu, their projected total payroll is nearly $236 million and the tax threshold is $237 million. Giants can effectively outbid the Yankees, and if the Giants whiffed on Ohtani but signed Bellinger, Yamamoto and Lee Jung-Hoo, I wouldn't be unhappy.
Why Yankees must sign Cody Bellinger in MLB Free Agency
And out of curiosity, I'm curious to know if the baseball fans on this board feel that Giancarlo Stanton's 13 year/$325 million contract was worth it. Signed after his 59-home run season, he had a terrific first year with the Yankees, 38 HRs, an even 100 RBIs, 19th in MVP voting. Then came two years of injuries when he barely played, 18 and 23 games. Then a very good year, 35 HRs, 31 the next year, down to 24 as he aged into his 33 year old season. Next year, he'll be 34. He's played 2/3rds of a season the last two years, 78 and 60 RBIs. OPS has declined four years in a row (.894, .887, .870, .759, .695) and is now under .700.
He's not even halfway through his contract. He isn't going to get better and the trend is that he will get worse. Yankee GM is sniping at Stanton "Getting hurt seems to be part of his game."
Was Stanton's enormous contract worth it?
No. Sometimes they miss. But if you’re going to be afraid of long-term contracts because of those that failed, then just get out of that market. Because they’ll always be failures. And furthermore, the backend is always going to be iffy at best. But it’s the price of doing business these days.
I’ll ask you a question – do you think the Rangers are happy with their long-term contracts to Semien and Seager? No matter what happens from here on out?
Of course. Because Semien's worth it. He's led the league in plate appearances three years in a row, was third in MVP voting, led the league in WAR, is basically indestructible. Seager, two-time All Star, led the league in doubles, 1.013 OPS. Yeah, I'd say they're happy.
I wasn't in favor of signing Stanton because he was a big guy who had played 2/3rds or less in three of the four seasons prior to his contract year.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-20-2023
Supposedly, Yamamoto wants to pitch in a large metropolitan area. Would #5 among American metro regions (SF/SJ/Oak and surrounds) work for him, I wonder?
MLB rumors: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency desire leads to Yankees, Mets prediction (msn.com)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 11-20-2023
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1700498904' Wrote: 1700498904[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1700498611' Wrote: 1700498611[/url]']
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1700494134' Wrote: 1700494134[/url]']
The Giants and Yankees are reportedly "co-favorites" to sign Bellinger. Bellinger is prototypically built for Yankee Stadium.
The Giants have a better shot at getting Bellinger than Judge, but not that much better.
The Yankees really need a star centerfielder who hits left-handed. Problem is that after Arson Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodon, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu, their projected total payroll is nearly $236 million and the tax threshold is $237 million. Giants can effectively outbid the Yankees, and if the Giants whiffed on Ohtani but signed Bellinger, Yamamoto and Lee Jung-Hoo, I wouldn't be unhappy.
Why Yankees must sign Cody Bellinger in MLB Free Agency
And out of curiosity, I'm curious to know if the baseball fans on this board feel that Giancarlo Stanton's 13 year/$325 million contract was worth it. Signed after his 59-home run season, he had a terrific first year with the Yankees, 38 HRs, an even 100 RBIs, 19th in MVP voting. Then came two years of injuries when he barely played, 18 and 23 games. Then a very good year, 35 HRs, 31 the next year, down to 24 as he aged into his 33 year old season. Next year, he'll be 34. He's played 2/3rds of a season the last two years, 78 and 60 RBIs. OPS has declined four years in a row (.894, .887, .870, .759, .695) and is now under .700.
He's not even halfway through his contract. He isn't going to get better and the trend is that he will get worse. Yankee GM is sniping at Stanton "Getting hurt seems to be part of his game."
Was Stanton's enormous contract worth it?
No. Sometimes they miss. But if you’re going to be afraid of long-term contracts because of those that failed, then just get out of that market. Because they’ll always be failures. And furthermore, the backend is always going to be iffy at best. But it’s the price of doing business these days.
I’ll ask you a question – do you think the Rangers are happy with their long-term contracts to Semien and Seager? No matter what happens from here on out?
My point is there is always risk associated with long term FA’s. Bellinger even more so. Does he revert to 2021 and 2022? Was ‘23 a fluke year? His hard-hit rate was fairly low after all.
On the other hand was ‘23 part of a recovery and not the ceiling but the floor for the next several years? He cut his strikeouts down in half. Not an easy thing to do. Further, a few years back he was the MVP of the National League. He is very talented. So high risk potentially high reward.
Personally, I’m on the fence. Very tough call.
Yep. When you sign a player to a 12+ year deal, you are truly signing him for (hopefully) 8-9 productive years. The balance you chalk up to “cost of doing business”.
Bellinger - 6 productive years would be worth a 9 year deal. I think any team that signs him will get 6 years similar to this season from him. Yes, sign him.
Heck, Zito was worth every penny of his contract based solely on his 2012 postseason…….
RE: SF Giants 2024 - OutsiderFan - 11-21-2023
At this point, my successful offseason for the Giants would be whiffing on all their top targets and Ohtani signing with the Cubs.
That's how low the bar is set for me.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-21-2023
Not only do the Giants and Yankees want Bellinger, apparently they're both after Jung Hoo Lee.
https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/san-francisco-giants-and-new-york-yankees-reportedly-interested-in-south-korean-star-jung-hoo-lee
Pederson might be had for cheap. Pull the trigger?
https://aroundthefoghorn.com/posts/did-the-non-tender-market-hurt-the-market-for-a-former-sf-giants-slugger-01hfn87f7cva
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 11-21-2023
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1700577923' Wrote: 1700577923[/url]']
Not only do the Giants and Yankees want Bellinger, apparently they're both after Jung Hoo Lee.
https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/san-francisco-giants-and-new-york-yankees-reportedly-interested-in-south-korean-star-jung-hoo-lee
Pederson might be had for cheap. Pull the trigger?
https://aroundthefoghorn.com/posts/did-the-non-tender-market-hurt-the-market-for-a-former-sf-giants-slugger-01hfn87f7cva
No thanks. A slow, out of shape guy who can’t effectively play any position on the field is the opposite of what SF needs. Quite frankly, any team that seriously considers him would have to be rather desperate…
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 11-22-2023
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1700578636' Wrote: 1700578636[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1700577923' Wrote: 1700577923[/url]']
Not only do the Giants and Yankees want Bellinger, apparently they're both after Jung Hoo Lee.
https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/san-francisco-giants-and-new-york-yankees-reportedly-interested-in-south-korean-star-jung-hoo-lee
Pederson might be had for cheap. Pull the trigger?
https://aroundthefoghorn.com/posts/did-the-non-tender-market-hurt-the-market-for-a-former-sf-giants-slugger-01hfn87f7cva
No thanks. A slow, out of shape guy who can’t effectively play any position on the field is the opposite of what SF needs. Quite frankly, any team that seriously considers him would have to be rather desperate…
Agree. He hurt his market value with his performance last year. And especially being out of shape. There are not a whole lot of jobs for platoon DH’s. The 13 man non pitching part of the 26 demands flexibility. He will sign somewhere. For a fraction of the absurd amount Giants paid him last year.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - skip75 - 11-27-2023
(11-19-2023, 12:01 PM)lex24 Wrote:Sonny Gray to the Cardinals for 3 years, $75 millionGiants dateline='[url=tel:1700374271' Wrote: 1700374271[/url]']
The Giants have roughly $70 million of 2024 salary space to spend.
Here is the shopping list (per MLBtraderumors)…
Ohtani $44MM/12 years - total $528MM
Bellinger $22MM/12 years - total $264MM
Yamamoto $25MM/9 years - total $225MM
Chapman $25MM/6 years - total $150MM
I would take Bellinger, Yamamoto and Chapman over Ohtani plus one of the other three.
Note: this exercise assumes the salaries are spread evenly over the life of the contract.
Those 2 year one with a player option contracts are biting them in the butt. That’s 30 million they could have.
I don’t see the Giants signing both Yamamoto and Bellinger. I also am hopeful they sign two starting pitchers. Which would mean perhaps Yamamoto and maybe sonny gray. Switch in Lee for Belanger. There’s some savings there.
As for a bat - I think they are going to have to try to get that through a trade.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-28-2023
(11-27-2023, 08:49 PM)skip75 Wrote:(11-19-2023, 12:01 PM)lex24 Wrote:Sonny Gray to the Cardinals for 3 years, $75 millionGiants dateline='[url=tel:1700374271' Wrote: 1700374271[/url]']
The Giants have roughly $70 million of 2024 salary space to spend.
Here is the shopping list (per MLBtraderumors)…
Ohtani $44MM/12 years - total $528MM
Bellinger $22MM/12 years - total $264MM
Yamamoto $25MM/9 years - total $225MM
Chapman $25MM/6 years - total $150MM
I would take Bellinger, Yamamoto and Chapman over Ohtani plus one of the other three.
Note: this exercise assumes the salaries are spread evenly over the life of the contract.
Those 2 year one with a player option contracts are biting them in the butt. That’s 30 million they could have.
I don’t see the Giants signing both Yamamoto and Bellinger. I also am hopeful they sign two starting pitchers. Which would mean perhaps Yamamoto and maybe sonny gray. Switch in Lee for Belanger. There’s some savings there.
As for a bat - I think they are going to have to try to get that through a trade.
The Cardinals need to overhaul their rotation. That's a pretty good start.
Tigers signed 36 year old Kenta Maeda for two years, $24 million and the Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola 7 years/$172 mms. Pretty good for a 4.46 regular season ERA/4.03 FIP, 31 year old pitcher.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-28-2023
Giants have retained Ron Wotus as a special assistant. Didn't know he'd turned down Bochy's request to be the bench coach for the Rangers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/sf-giants-retain-longtime-coach-ron-wotus-as-special-assistant/ar-AA1kGgX4
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 11-29-2023
The Athletic is projecting that Cody Bellinger and his agent Scott Boras will want 12 years and $264 million, basically similar to what Xander Bogaerts got who was two years older than Bellinger. Tim Britton thinks six years and $162 million.
https://theathletic.com/5095033/2023/11/29/san-francisco-giants-cody-bellinger-free-agency/
Bellinger had three terrible years from 2020 through 2022 when he was supposedly hampered by a dislocated shoulder and a hairline fracture in his leg. The Britton deal makes sense to me, not so much the 12 year deal.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml
How about Shane Bieber, in the last year of his Guardians' contract? 60-32 career W/L record.
https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-tyler-glasnow-trade-cubs-cardinals-red-sox-yamamoto-giants-bieber-01hg9jn4ztcn
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biebesh01.shtml
RE: SF Giants 2024 - OutsiderFan - 12-02-2023
I might be the only person on the planet who listened to Tim Kawakami interview Dave Fleming this week and also heard Buster Only on the Michael Kay Show yesterday.
I've never heard two different versions of reality like I did from these guys.
Fleming: The Giants are focused on Ohtani and Yamamoto, Yu Darvish is close with and advising Yamamoto, he speaks highly of Bob Melvin, and the Giants have been courting Yamamoto for two years.
Olney: The Dodgers are a big threat to sign Yamamoto as they are desperate for starting pitching, the Yankees are very well positioned to land him, but don't rule out the Mets!
Fleming: The Giants may have some big news to announce even before the Winter meetings start.
Olney: I expect Ohtani to make his choice public in the next 96 hours (which at the time I write this would be 72 hours), I think he's known his destination for two years, and his agent is just going through a dog an pony show, but don't completely rule out Toronto.
Fleming: the Giants passed on Sonny Gray to keep their powder dry for a bigger splash signing.
Olney: (and this was a truly weird thing to hear said) Yamamoto is signing with whoever gives him the most money.
The only positive thing I felt from a Giants perspective between their two perspectives was the last somewhat related comments. Many Giants apologists have said they can't be blamed when guys don't choose them if they choose other teams offering the same or slightly less money. To hear Olney's take, the Giants can sign Yamamoto if they are willing to pay him the most, so if the Giants don't sign him, we'll know why.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 12-02-2023
Kapler is joining the Marlins as their new assistant GM
Former Giants manager Gabe Kapler gets new baseball gig
MLB Winter Meetings start tomorrow in Nashville. Giants should be (one of the) center(s) of attention for both free agents and trades:
MLB Winter Meetings: SF Giants draw eyes, pursuing Ohtani, Yamamoto
RE: SF Giants 2024 - cardcrimson - 12-02-2023
(12-02-2023, 09:54 AM)Mick Wrote: Kapler is joining the Marlins as their new assistant GM
Former Giants manager Gabe Kapler gets new baseball gig
MLB Winter Meetings start tomorrow in Nashville. Giants should be (one of the) center(s) of attention for both free agents and trades:
MLB Winter Meetings: SF Giants draw eyes, pursuing Ohtani, Yamamoto
Perfect place for him and his coconuts.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 12-02-2023
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1701536097' Wrote: 1701536097[/url]']
Kapler is joining the Marlins as their new assistant GM
Former Giants manager Gabe Kapler gets new baseball gig
MLB Winter Meetings start tomorrow in Nashville. Giants should be (one of the) center(s) of attention for both free agents and trades:
MLB Winter Meetings: SF Giants draw eyes, pursuing Ohtani, Yamamoto
Kapler imo is much better suited for front office. He’s smart. Analytical. I could see him being a Head of Baseball Ops someday.
Going to be interesting to see who Giants end up signing. I’m impatiently waiting.