Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Bampa - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 01:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 12:20 PM)gailtate Wrote:  While we're at this sanction thing, can we lead an effort to de-fund the U.N.? It is a long-time planetary disgrace. And an epic waste of ultra-premium east-side Manhattan property. All that this debating society does is enable Russia, China and Iran while trying to undermine the Israelis.  U.N. peacekeepers? Sex criminals led by corrupt apparatchiks in cheap suits. Useless as teats on roosters.

Zelensky effectively called out the UN in his speech to Congress March 16, when he suggested the need for a UN-type organization comprised only of the world's democracies. This body would be able to act on global issues that the UN can't effectively address at the speed they must be.


The UN does do some good things and I don't think the world is better without it, but it also has failed at some very important things like preventing this war in Ukraine, for example, that show the need for something else that can prevent something similar from happening in the future.

The UN has proven it is good for one thing, and one thing only. Talking...that's all they do. Talk.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 01:05 PM)martyup Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 10:19 AM)Phogge Wrote:  In Cornelius Ryan’s last book he describes Soviet soldiers not knowing what toilets were as they marched on Berlin so they used them to wash potatoes.

I doubt that many Russian soldiers on the ground in the Ukraine have any geopolitical thoughts.

Yes, Russia has a long history of treating its soldiers as cannon fodder.  I doubt that the Russian leaders value soldier lives as highly as we do.  Hopefully, the Russian people hold a much higher value.

Their losses in Afghanistan were instrumental in their eventual withdrawal.  The Stinger became a legendary weapon in that conflict.  It appears the Javelin has already become a legendary weapon in this fight and NATO and the US are providing them by the 1,000's.  Now we are sending the so-called Kamakazi drone which provides anti armor defense at a distance.  Armored warfare is not predicated on being stuck in long unmoving lines. I am sure none of this working out as Putin assumed it would.  My great concern is that he is not too far being being between a rock and hard place.
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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 11:54 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Well I don't know that it's likely, but I think it's a lot more likely that Ukraine retakes those areas than Russia takes and holds Kiev.

Russia is suffering more KIA in a couple weeks in Ukraine than the average monthly KIA for US during WW2, and the losses thus far have been disproportionately to their best soldiers and equipment.

True, because they are driving against a prepared and motivated defense. They are also not operating as combined arms units and are disorganized. Most of that stops if they stop attacking.

Quote:If we take 7000 as KIA, likely there are ~25k Russian soldiers dead or wounded by now. At this rate their entire invasion force will be dead or wounded in 3 to 4 months.

I am not sure I credit the 7K for exactly this reason. It seems far too high for the amount of actual combat going on. However, if it is true that the Ukrainians actually killed the commander of 150 Motor Rifle Division, that division should be really chewed up for that to happen. It should be combat ineffective. Yet we don't see it being pulled off the line. Lots of "does not compute" in the fog of war, so I think we just don't know.

Quote:We don't know Ukrainian losses but they are probably much less than Russia given their advantage as defenders. And their army and territorial defense forces are far more numerous than the Russian invasion force.

The Russian invasion force is about the same size as the entire Ukrainian military was at the start of the war. The Ukrainian army was about 125,000 men. There were officially 900,000 reservists available, but obviously many more people have made themselves available. If one accepts the idea that a 3:1 advantage of attackers over defenders is desired, overall Russia is in trouble. However, the Ukrainian reserves are not well trained (at least yet) and are immobile. If Russia was well led, their better mobility should have led to at least a 3:1 numerical superiority in chosen places where they would easily win. Hasn't happened. OTOH, if Russia stops attacking and remains on the defensive, they are just fine at 1:1.

Quote:I think a Russian military collapse is more likely than not at this point. And they certainly have not secured the areas their troops "occupy" from this offensive so I think their hold is very tenuous on those areas. Plenty of videos of supply trucks being ambushed near Russian border well behind the ostensible front lines, and the local populace hates them. This is not 2014.

Not sure a collapse is probable, but staying in place will not be a bed of roses, for sure. Creating a greater security zone around their existing troops will not be easy. It is possible if they adjust their lines to exclude areas where they are at a disadvantage, but will they do that? How much pressure and for how long can Ukraine engage them? Russian casualties will drop greatly as they go defensive, while Ukraine's  will increase as they attack fixed, dug in positions defended by surveyed in artillery support. That won't be fun either. What is the balance?
Ukraine has one big advantage ATM. Their armory contains whatever they can persuade the US and NATO to give them. They aren't going to run out of ordinance. They may not get exactly what they want, but they will get something/enough. Russia OTOH could run out of things that they can't build fast enough to supply their troops. Sanctions mean they can't get some raw materials. In the long haul, that could become the deciding issue. Lots of dead people on both sides before that happens I fear.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 12:40 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:  Can we please keep this thread about Ukraine?

IT IS ALL ABOUT UKRAINE: If the UN were true to its mission, Russia could have never been the chair of the emergency session that has helped prolong Ukrainian misery. They blew it off.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 01:52 PM)Goose Wrote:  I am not sure I credit the 7K for exactly this reason. It seems far too high for the amount of actual combat going on. However, if it is true that the Ukrainians actually killed the commander of 150 Motor Rifle Division, that division should be really chewed up for that to happen. It should be combat ineffective. Yet we don't see it being pulled off the line. Lots of "does not compute" in the fog of war, so I think we just don't know.

The number seems pretty credible to me. 4 generals already KIA and that's well documented. Supposedly about 20 Russian generals on ground in Ukraine, so if a fifth of them have died, that would at least accord with KIA rates of ~5% of total force. 

OSINT observation of Russian equipment losses would also accord I think with the 7k number. 1480 vehicles destroyed, captured, abandoned, 675 of those destroyed.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

In any case it's in the right ballpark. Maybe it's 5k. Maybe it's 10k. But it definitely isn't 498, and whether it's 5k, 7k, or 10k, it's unsustainable for the Russians for more than a short period of time.

Such heavy losses also would explain why Russia is extending conscription contracts, and bringing in 2nd and 3rd tier garrison troops from various post Soviet states and irregular Syrian forces. Yes they will eventually run out of materiel, but they will run out of manpower first, at least manpower with sufficient training and morale to do anything even somewhat useful.

The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - ca245 - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 02:13 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 01:52 PM)Goose Wrote:  I am not sure I credit the 7K for exactly this reason. It seems far too high for the amount of actual combat going on. However, if it is true that the Ukrainians actually killed the commander of 150 Motor Rifle Division, that division should be really chewed up for that to happen. It should be combat ineffective. Yet we don't see it being pulled off the line. Lots of "does not compute" in the fog of war, so I think we just don't know.

The number seems pretty credible to me. 4 generals already KIA and that's well documented. Supposedly about 20 Russian generals on ground in Ukraine, so if a fifth of them have died, that would at least accord with KIA rates of ~5% of total force. 

OSINT observation of Russian equipment losses would also accord I think with the 7k number. 1480 vehicles destroyed, captured, abandoned, 675 of those destroyed.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

In any case it's in the right ballpark. Maybe it's 5k. Maybe it's 10k. But it definitely isn't 498, and whether it's 5k, 7k, or 10k, it's unsustainable for the Russians for more than a short period of time.

Such heavy losses also would explain why Russia is extending conscription contracts, and bringing in 2nd and 3rd tier garrison troops from various post Soviet states and irregular Syrian forces. Yes they will eventually run out of materiel, but they will run out of manpower first, at least manpower with sufficient training and morale to do anything even somewhat useful.

The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

Suppose the Russian offensive stalls but Russia settles into trying to bombard the Ukrainian cities into submission, with only world opinion to stop them. Who will hold out longer: the Ukrainian people or Putin?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 02:13 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

I am not so sure Russia is done on offense. They have massively under-performed. Why so and can they fix it? My guess is they can't, but Russia has surprised before. If Ukraine goes on offense it may create openings to flip the script. They have been counted out before. Different war, but who can say for sure that Putin can't create some incident to turn this into "Great Patriotic War" somehow?

(03-17-2022, 03:13 PM)ca245 Wrote:  Suppose the Russian offensive stalls but Russia settles into trying to bombard the Ukrainian cities into submission, with only world opinion to stop them. Who will hold out longer: the Ukrainian people or Putin?

I really don't know. I don't think anybody does, which makes it even more dangerous. You would think that Russia would cave first, because for them it never has been an existential war. For Ukraine it is, so they will hold out until they simply don't have the power to continue. However, when people assert Russia can't stand the casualties etc., consider they have done it before. It seems the Russian populace remains fatalistic, thinking they have no choice, no input, and just have to survive what happens to them. That give Putin a very long leash. The degree that has changed, and to the degree that they get the real story of events, IMHO controls how long Putin can hang on. I have no idea what that result will be.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - teejers1 - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 04:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 02:13 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

I am not so sure Russia is done on offense. They have massively under-performed. Why so and can they fix it? 

The answer is obvious:  David Shaw is the OC of Russia's invasion efforts.
And it can't be fixed unless and until he steps aside in favor of a real War OC!

(C'mon . . . that was such low-hanging fruit . . . I couldn't resist).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 04:29 PM)teejers1 Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 04:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 02:13 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

I am not so sure Russia is done on offense. They have massively under-performed. Why so and can they fix it? 

The answer is obvious:  David Shaw is the OC of Russia's invasion efforts.
And it can't be fixed unless and until he steps aside in favor of a real War OC!

(C'mon . . . that was such low-hanging fruit . . . I couldn't resist).

And Zelensky plays a Vic-Fangio party-in-Putin's-backfield DEE-fense.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-17-2022

(03-17-2022, 04:29 PM)teejers1 Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 04:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-17-2022, 02:13 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

I am not so sure Russia is done on offense. They have massively under-performed. Why so and can they fix it? 

The answer is obvious:  David Shaw is the OC of Russia's invasion efforts.
And it can't be fixed unless and until he steps aside in favor of a real War OC!

(C'mon . . . that was such low-hanging fruit . . . I couldn't resist).

Indeed! I knew there was a way it could be worked in. Little did I realize I was throwing up such a "hit me" pitch!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 2006alum - 03-17-2022

Stanford's Tara VanDerveer pledges Ukraine humanitarian relief for each 3-pointer made in NCAA women's basketball tournament.

As if I could like Tara any more than I already do, or root more for Hannah Jump to go off in the Tournament.  GO CARDINAL!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-17-2022

LOL Teejers. I’m impressed at your dedication to your goal of getting a Shaw dig into every thread, but I agree that was a hanging curve.

Dabigv… apparently one of the generals was communicating over an open line that the Ukrainians were able to tap into and triangulate his position.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-17-2022

Russia had about 4800 armored vehicles in Ukraine, of which about 1200 were tanks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/15/how-many-tanks-does-russia-have-in-ukraine-and-how-many-have-they-lost-so-far/?sh=6d9a7a255682

They have last 1500 vehicles, including  242 tanks.

Basically, 1/3 of their vehicles have been destroyed, captured, or abandoned, including about 1/5 of their tanks.

Sorry, forgot the link:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Not Oryx only documents the known equipment losses based on photographic evidence.  So, if anything, it may be a bit of an undercount.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-17-2022

I would steer clear of windows in high rises if I were a Russian general right about now.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504440205352349700?s=21[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - triangle2 - 03-18-2022

Tara VanDerveer has pledged $10 towards Ukraine relief for every 3-pointer made in the NCAA tournament; she challenges others to join her.

Vanderveer Ukraine Relief

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - WBB fan - 03-18-2022

(03-18-2022, 01:17 AM)triangle2 Wrote:  Tara VanDerveer has pledged $10 towards Ukraine relief for every 3-pointer made in the NCAA tournament; she challenges others to join her.

Vanderveer Ukraine Relief

Glad to see you posted this. I was going to do so until I saw this. I have also posted re this in the thread on Tara as a woman of the year nominee. Let's all follow Tara's lead. I'm on board.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 03-18-2022

https://www.svaboda.org/a/31755796.html

2,500 bodies from just one of the Russian axes of advance.

Consider the source, but if true would make the US estimate of 7,000 seem low. Perhaps Ukraine's estimate of 13,000+ more likely.

Russia has already lost. How many more people will die in their failed invasion is the question.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - teejers1 - 03-18-2022

(03-18-2022, 10:43 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.svaboda.org/a/31755796.html

2,500 bodies from just one of the Russian axes of advance.

Consider the source, but if true would make the US estimate of 7,000 seem low. Perhaps Ukraine's estimate of 13,000+ more likely.

Russia has already lost. How many more people will die in their failed invasion is the question.

I really hope you are right, but I have visions of this thing drawing out for a long time, with the Ukrainian resistance being suffocated over time.  Hope I'm wrong.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-18-2022

(03-18-2022, 10:47 AM)teejers1 Wrote:  

(03-18-2022, 10:43 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://www.svaboda.org/a/31755796.html

2,500 bodies from just one of the Russian axes of advance.

Consider the source, but if true would make the US estimate of 7,000 seem low. Perhaps Ukraine's estimate of 13,000+ more likely.

Russia has already lost. How many more people will die in their failed invasion is the question.

I really hope you are right, but I have visions of this thing drawing out for a long time, with the Ukrainian resistance being suffocated over time.  Hope I'm wrong.

There are lots of possible outcomes from this Ukrainian war. They range from bad to horrible. Even if Putin is gone tomorrow, Russia unconditionally  leaves Ukraine, and a settlement is reached regarding Crimea, that net result is bad. We are left with a wrecked Ukraine, many deaths on both sides, and an impoverished Russia that nobody can trust. That is the best case. Unfortunately this outcome is virtually impossible. What actually happens will be substantially worse I expect.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-18-2022

I was waiting for the Hitler’s Downfall parody of Putin…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4UM2IkfB0o

BC

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