Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-29-2022

Goose may appreciate some IFVs on the move as part of the offensive.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1564275768976449538?s=20&t=nvvIvSAz0CvW2FhjSdqMjw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-29-2022

(08-29-2022, 07:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Goose may appreciate some IFVs on the move as part of the offensive.


https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1564275768976449538?s=20&t=nvvIvSAz0CvW2FhjSdqMjw

Indeed Goose does! This is a (perhaps small) indication of at least an attempt at a combined arms breakthrough. Maybe baby steps, maybe the "real deal", maybe in between. If this kind of attack becomes general, it could indeed be a big deal. I doubt Russia expected such an action and probably is not well prepared to meet it. The IFV with 25mm cannons are not Bradleys but are for sure a big upgrade for Ukraine. I still hope that if Ukraine can get behind them, they will fall apart, especially if all their commanders are across the river already (and thus free to didi if they wish). We shall see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-29-2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/28/us/politics/ukraine-weapons-russia.html

Some really good info in that article.

First, interesting bit on the Neptune missile that sunk the Moskva.

Quote:They appear to have mounted the Neptune missiles onto one or more trucks, according to one senior American official, and moved them within range of the ship, which was around 75 miles from Odesa. The striking of the Moskva was, in essence, the Neptune’s proof of concept; it was the first time the new Ukrainian weapon was used in an actual war, and it took down Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea.

second, confirmation that the HARM’s were mounted onto MiG’s.

Quote: A senior Pentagon official said Ukrainian forces had put American-supplied HARM anti-radiation missiles on Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets — something that no air force had ever done. The American HARM missile, designed to seek and destroy Russian air defense radar, is not usually compatible with the MiG-29 or the other fighter jets in Ukraine’s arsenal.

I skipped over the bit about the Bayraktar drone because it didn’t answer the question Of why a radar visible drone operating at 80 mph was still recking havoc on the Russians 6 months into the war.

Lastly, this bit about the attack on the Crimean base…

Quote: In a Telegram post after the Saki strike, Andriy Tsaplienko, a Ukrainian military journalist, said the damage suggested that a truck-mounted heavy missile launcher called the Grim, or Sapsan, had been used in the attack. That system was developed by Yuzhmash, a state-owned Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer.

Anyone know anything about the Grim?

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-29-2022

Here’s what the Kyiv Post said about the Grim a few weeks ago. Photo included:

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/evidence-mounting-that-weapon-used-in-crimea-airfield-strikes-may-be-ukraine-made-missile-system.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-30-2022

(08-29-2022, 09:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Anyone know anything about the Grim?

BC

(08-29-2022, 10:12 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Here’s what the Kyiv Post said about the Grim a few weeks ago. Photo included:

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/evidence-mounting-that-weapon-used-in-crimea-airfield-strikes-may-be-ukraine-made-missile-system.html

We talked about this back on August 10th on this thread. Not much new to add. The three different English spellings for this weapon adds to the confusion. IMHO, it seems unlikely it was this weapon, as it seems to be even less advanced in it's development than the Neptune was. Also, it seems improbable the Ukrainians would have been able to/chose to manufacture the number of missiles that would be required to explain all the events. The program was effectively dead.

However, it is not impossible that it was missiles. If it were, I would expect Russia would know it and certainly the US would know it. Hard for me to believe Ukraine wouldn't be claiming it was missiles if clearly others already knew that it was, since it would be a technological victory. Maybe they have their "reasons" but ambiguity would not be one of them if it was missiles.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-30-2022

(08-29-2022, 08:51 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022, 07:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Goose may appreciate some IFVs on the move as part of the offensive.


https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1564275768976449538?s=20&t=nvvIvSAz0CvW2FhjSdqMjw

Indeed Goose does! This is a (perhaps small) indication of at least an attempt at a combined arms breakthrough. Maybe baby steps, maybe the "real deal", maybe in between. If this kind of attack becomes general, it could indeed be a big deal. I doubt Russia expected such an action and probably is not well prepared to meet it. The IFV with 25mm cannons are not Bradleys but are for sure a big upgrade for Ukraine. I still hope that if Ukraine can get behind them, they will fall apart, especially if all their commanders are across the river already (and thus free to didi if they wish). We shall see.

Strikes me as the optimal terrain for  real combined arms operations.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-30-2022

(08-30-2022, 07:50 AM)GK3 Wrote:  

(08-29-2022, 08:51 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022, 07:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Goose may appreciate some IFVs on the move as part of the offensive.


https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1564275768976449538?s=20&t=nvvIvSAz0CvW2FhjSdqMjw

Indeed Goose does! This is a (perhaps small) indication of at least an attempt at a combined arms breakthrough. Maybe baby steps, maybe the "real deal", maybe in between. If this kind of attack becomes general, it could indeed be a big deal. I doubt Russia expected such an action and probably is not well prepared to meet it. The IFV with 25mm cannons are not Bradleys but are for sure a big upgrade for Ukraine. I still hope that if Ukraine can get behind them, they will fall apart, especially if all their commanders are across the river already (and thus free to didi if they wish). We shall see.

Strikes me as the optimal terrain for  real combined arms operations.

Indeed it is. In fact, combined arms is really the only rational way to do it. The Russian tactic of massing artillery has problems because there is no place for that artillery to "hide" except in urban areas. Anything that moves (or sits) in the open is vulnerable unless it is armored and even then it can be destroyed by infantry guided weapons (or aircraft).  You need an infantry screen delivered by IFV and protected by indirect fire to clear the way for tanks that will break the enemy GLOC. The "school solution". Often easier said than done. Ukraine originally lost that area mostly because of treachery, not Russian combined arms prowess. Station to Station advances by unsupported infantry just won't work in this terrain. 

Russia should be able to use their air power to blunt such an attack. They have lots of SAM assets available to protect their planes from Ukrainian air. However, they haven't delivered a stellar performance in that effort so far. Let's just hope the Ukrainians brought their Gepards with them (and that they work). Stingers work but are a thin defense against a determined opponent, Then again, how determined an opponent is the Russian air force?

Russia has supposedly been short on infantry all along and with the attrition rate as high as it has been, they should be even thinner. Ukraine may intend to give the Russians an escape route so they will run rather than fight. Surrounded Russian infantry has a history of being a nasty opponent. They fight hard when they have no choice. OTOH, that also means they can be reorganized and fight later if allowed to flee. Hopefully Ukraine will face that decision on a large scale! One important difference between now and the past, the Nazis wouldn't exactly treat Russian POWs that well. So far, Ukraine has, which may influence the Russian soldier more than a little.

I am doing my best not to expect too much from this "offensive", but the situation is something a strategist prays for. An opposing force divided by a major river with limited mobility, few bridges, and long GLOCs. Throw in poor morale and very limited access to reinforcements. You couldn't ask for more. If you can't "win" this one, it won't be very encouraging.

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-calls-caution-discussing-recent-085000613.html
For sure. Let's wait and see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 08-30-2022

https://www.aol.com/news/scaneagle-drones-look-latest-weapon-140853606.html

Surveillance drone Scaneagle being used.  Portable.    Can fly for 24 hours.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-30-2022

Video of Ukrainian Mig 29s firing HARM missiles. Seems they are launching from some altitude to maximize range though it increases their risk as well to Russian long range SAMs.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1564531365600690176?s=20&t=d3iba9geJyp19PgDbt805g[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-30-2022

https://news.yahoo.com/report-drunk-russian-soldiers-in-kherson-fired-assault-rifles-at-fsb-officers-in-deadly-incident-001518057.html

Russians shooting other Russians in Kherson. You love to see it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-31-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1564917565624930305?s=21&t=xXAqL3Pdmfu9z9x9yLVHwA[/tweet]

The thread notes that they could be acting out of (misguided) personal conviction and not personal corruption, but yikes.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-31-2022

(08-31-2022, 08:23 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1564917565624930305?s=21&t=xXAqL3Pdmfu9z9x9yLVHwA

The thread notes that they could be acting out of (misguided) personal conviction and not personal corruption, but yikes.

BC

Nobody should be surprised. This is just the tip of an iceberg. Whether that iceberg is 90% submerged or 10% submerged is anybody's guess, but for sure it is there.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-31-2022

(08-31-2022, 11:08 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-31-2022, 08:23 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1564917565624930305?s=21&t=xXAqL3Pdmfu9z9x9yLVHwA

The thread notes that they could be acting out of (misguided) personal conviction and not personal corruption, but yikes.

BC

Nobody should be surprised. This is just the tip of an iceberg. Whether that iceberg is 90% submerged or 10% submerged is anybody's guess, but for sure it is there.

For sure no surprise.  Only surprise is that if they were active sources for the FSB then why are they taking such pro Russian positions?  As you say the one ones to worry about the most are the ones you don't know about.  I am sure the BfV is looking and has been looking.  A very murky business.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-31-2022

Russia has many knowing and unknowing assets.  Look at Jesse Ventura:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/06/08/jesse-venturas-new-russian-state-tv-show-i-am-working-for-the-enemy-of-mainstream-media-now/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-31-2022

Liked him in Predator. Guessing he needs a paycheck. Shame.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 08-31-2022

(08-31-2022, 02:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Liked him in Predator. Guessing he needs a paycheck. Shame.

The article was written 5 years ago. Who knows if it's still on . . ..

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-31-2022

(08-31-2022, 03:05 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  

(08-31-2022, 02:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Liked him in Predator. Guessing he needs a paycheck. Shame.

The article was written 5 years ago. Who knows if it's still on . . ..

Update, his show was still on the air until Russia pulled it in advance of the Ukraine invasion.  I guess Putin could count on Ventura to say nice things despite assissinations of rivals and meddlings in democratic elections around the world, but Putin knew the jig would be up with bombings of schools and hospitals.  Even Ventura had to draw the line somewhere.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-31-2022

For many, many years Russia has relied on what they called "useful idiots" to further their cause(s). I think nobody in today's world has any doubt that there are plenty of idiots available. Russia's success in making them useful is a problem that is difficult to solve. It is especially difficult in a free society where being an idiot is not illegal. You have to wait until the idiot does something illegal that you can prove, and by then said idiot may have done a lot of damage. These two in Germany IMHO are an example of this.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-31-2022

Exhibit a was Gerhart Schroeder.  It’s sad because his lobbying actually hurt GermNy.  It’s crazy to see that after the 2014 invasion of Crimea and the Donbass, instead of seeing it as a warning sign and starting the decoupling process, Germany doubled down and the share of Russian gas in its energy  mix actually went up.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-31-2022

(08-31-2022, 06:55 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Exhibit a was Gerhart Schroeder.  It’s sad because his lobbying actually hurt GermNy.  It’s crazy to see that after the 2014 invasion of Crimea and the Donbass, instead of seeing it as a warning sign and starting the decoupling process, Germany doubled down and the share of Russian gas in its energy  mix actually went up.

BC

I think it is only fair to point out that Merkel was Chancellor form 2005 through 2021, and that she was CDU. She also held a pretty secure parliamentary majority during most of that time. There are plenty of targets for blame IMO. Merkel may have the somewhat rare experience of being considered a "good" Chancellor while in power and actually be somewhat (justly I think) vilified in history. Many of the things she did, particularly her handling of the refugee crisis and the German military/defense posture are not looking very good in retrospect. The continuation of Ostpolitik, which was never a CSU/CDU espoused policy, is certainly now come back to bite them. Who knew? Lots of people in her own party knew. It didn't matter. She was popular and the low energy cost made Germany's exports cheaper than they would have been otherwise. That, coupled with a Euro that was much weaker than the DM would have been because of the weaker economies in Europe served Germany well. However, it may not have been Kostenlos.

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