Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-22-2022

While it is true that the "public" doesn't know how the strike on Saki air base was performed, I think the reason that is true is that Ukraine likes it that way and that none of the possible methods is without it's objections. However, This article has a lot of "objections" that can be raised. First of all, there is absolutely no way it was a PrSM. Even the US Army doesn't have IOC on this missile yet and there is no way in hell we are sending something that new to Ukraine. Even we don't know how well it works (or not) and what the problems may be.
 
Second of all, if one takes a look at what has gone on in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan in the last 20 years the idea that covertly installed explosives detonate only at night is laughable. Yes, they are often (but not always) planted at night. They go off when they will do the most damage. They are sometimes command-detonated to ensure that. The authors are also indeed correct that no "operator" is going to carry in hundreds of pounds of C4 when a few oz. will do. This is especially true if the few oz. is attached to a 500 kilo bomb. You can get great crater size that way. Obviously, I can't know if that was the case, but equally the authors can't argue the craters are only possible with a missile strike.

Their idea that possibly some other NATO nation provided ATACMS is indeed interesting. The only country that possibly would do that without US approval is Turkey. It is possible (though AFAIK not publicly known) that Turkey could have reverse-engineered an ATACMS. It is also possible Israel has a "substitute" that they MIGHT sell, though I don't think that is probable. It is also possible as the authors point out that the US did authorize such a transfer. On the whole, I doubt this explanation for two reasons. First, Russia wouldn't care one way or another whether the missile came from Poland or from the US. Even if we actually didn't authorize it, they would never believe that, and obviously as I write this it is clear that I would never believe that. Second, Russian air defense would certainly detect several Mach 3 targets overflying Crimea. They may not even attempt to engage them, but they would detect them. Russia would know if it was an ATACMS or similar. I for one do not believe they would be quiet about that. Maybe they would, Russians do strange things sometime. They may think it makes them look bad. However, having an air base blow up makes them look bad too. I think Putin would scream literally bloody murder.

It is interesting that the authors agree with my belief the picture shown was a HIMARS with the travel plate installed. The authors try to make an argument that this could have been an attempt to obscure what the HIMARS was carrying (if anything), but I think it is just SOP when you are not in a tactical situation and certainly when nothing is being carried. It keeps things from rattling around so much. I think we can put that report aside as not informative.

So, yes, we don't know.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-22-2022

I agree that PrSM is unlikely but we did give Ukraine those brand new untested Phoenix Ghost drones, so we've demonstrated that we're ok with letting Ukraine test new weapons in combat at least with that system.

And while you're probably right that Russia would not distinguish between Poland and US supplying ATACMS, they seem to only really be capable of whining about it. Russia has not meaningfully responded to provision of HIMARS or HARM missiles besides lying about how often they are destroying those systems. So I think US is probably less worried than previously about what would happen, and some other country providing the missiles gives the US a fig leaf to say their prior statements were not outright lies.

Still all just speculation at this point until we see some debris.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-22-2022

(08-21-2022, 12:45 AM)newguy Wrote:  a pro-war Russian journalist who was sanctioned by the United States has just been killed by a car bomb near Moscow.
she was also the daughter of Putin confidant Aleksandr Dugin.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62621509

Maybe it was Putin.
Putin 'behind revenge bombing that wounded war guru & killed his daughter after former ally slammed him over Ukraine’ | The US Sun (the-sun.com)

Russian historian Dr. Yuri Felshtinsky thinks it was an inside job.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/6048022/putins-inner-circle-fear-coup-rogue-agents-resistance-fighters/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-22-2022

I’ve seen the allegations that it was an inside job.  The best evidence seems to be that security cameras had been disconnected for two weeks prior to the bombing (though I haven’t seen that corroborated).

By the way, although I agree that Darya Dugina was odious in her own right, that doesn’t make her an appropriate target for a car bombing.  Just ask the Ukrainians, who, in denying their involvement note that unlike the Russians, they are not terrorists.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-22-2022

(08-22-2022, 09:56 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I agree that PrSM is unlikely but we did give Ukraine those brand new untested Phoenix Ghost drones, so we've demonstrated that we're ok with letting Ukraine test new weapons in combat at least with that system.

You are right about the Phoenix Ghost drones. I think the difference is that nobody in the US military is really "waiting for" them and if they don't work, or appear not to work, no major US program gets delayed/canceled. I am also pretty sure we have none to give them. The first Low Rate Initial Production models aren't due till July 2023.

Quote:And while you're probably right that Russia would not distinguish between Poland and US supplying ATACMS, they seem to only really be capable of whining about it. Russia has not meaningfully responded to provision of HIMARS or HARM missiles besides lying about how often they are destroying those systems. So I think US is probably less worried than previously about what would happen, and some other country providing the missiles gives the US a fig leaf to say their prior statements were not outright lies.

True. In fact, I wish we would just say we are giving them ATACMS and do so. For some reason, even if Russia can only whine about it, our policy has been to not do it.

Quote:Still all just speculation at this point until we see some debris.

Debris or a verifiable radar track. The HARM debris were from a missile that "missed" as I understand it, and which appeared to have been damaged by fragments of "something". Not sure I trust that though. In any case, debris from an ATACMS that actually explodes may be hard to find.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-22-2022

(08-20-2022, 10:46 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I believe there were little green men in Crimea, and lots of documentation to back that up. Yes, Russia had access to Sevastopol, but I think they wanted to portray the image of civil war, instead of occupation. Russian soldiers dressed in green uniforms without insignia, would pretend to be from Crimea.  In this youtube series, you can see the Russian soldiers in green uniforms with no insignia. I highly recommend this youtube series. 





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNKsLlK52ss&t=6s

Probably it would require a definition of "little green men", but I think the very good series you linked to shows that the situation in Crimea in 2014 was fundamentally different that what evolved in Donetsk and Luhansk. The initial story line from the first video was as follows:

Quote:Not a shot has been fired so far, but Russia is using its superior force to intimidate Ukrainian troops in an effort to get them to surrender.

All of the Ukranian forces did surrender eventually. Nobody fought. They really had no choice. The narrating reporter pointed out the fact the troops (who were delivered in Russian military trucks) were Naval Infantry. While they had removed their national patches, everybody knew who they were and why they were there. All parties involved, both Ukranian and the reporters referred to "Russian troops" throughout the first three or four videos.They were present in overwhelming numbers and quickly sent military convoys led by a BMP to the Kherson Oblast. The reporters followed them there. The Black Sea Fleet blockaded the Ukranian Navy. They scuttled a ship across the harbor. Nobody in the world had any doubts that was Russia, not Ukrainian dissidents. While Putin may have wanted it to look like it was a "revolution", it was all over long before the referendum and everybody knew it. Russia was in control on day 1. A total of six people died in the entire operation.

The situation in the Donbas was totally different. There, Russia did not have a large military force already on the ground. While there was political agitation, the Russians were unable to capture either the Donetsk or Luhansk Oblasts on day 1. The Ukrainian forces resisted and were somewhat effective. A long struggle ensued. Russia sent in small numbers of what were called "little green men". Generally, nobody knew who they were. They were sometimes natives of the Donbas, but also often Wagner mercenaries or Chechens. Some of them were (allegedly) "retired" Russian officers. They were not a large force, often just a few men. In any case they didn't roll up in BMPs with truckload of Russian infantry in tow. Their purpose was to stimulate conflict between the natives of the Donbas and Ukraine. This went on for years, but from 2014 to 2015 over 6,000 people were killed in the Donbas. The Russians never succeeded in taking the Oblasts during that time.

For these reasons, I think it is clear the situations were radically different.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-22-2022

If Sweden and Finland can get Turkish approval to bring their talents to NATO, looks like that would be a boon for the rest of the alliance. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-sweden-finland-climate-and-environment-726570f7c9dd3f564255f395fee7e577

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-23-2022

(08-22-2022, 06:05 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  If Sweden and Finland can get Turkish approval to bring their talents to NATO, looks like that would be a boon for the rest of the alliance. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-sweden-finland-climate-and-environment-726570f7c9dd3f564255f395fee7e577

Like adding Texas and Oklahoma to your conference.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-23-2022

Reports coming out that the US will provide Ukraine a 3 billion dollar military aid package in honor of their independence day, and to commemorate 6 months since the recent invasion started. Wow, will be interesting to get the details on this one!

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And Goose, yes you are absolutely right, the Crimea annexation, and the DNR and LPR situations were very different, no argument here.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-23-2022

(03-08-2022, 11:35 AM)gailtate Wrote:  When Putin invaded Ukraine, I would have taken the Russians and the points.  Today? I smell The Greatest. Upset. Ever.
(This post probably has a half-life of 5 min., but I had to put it up. If you don't like it, IDGAS.)

6 months later, the underdog is still holding its own.  And we blew past the over a long time ago, for a war that many anticipated would be done in weeks.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-23-2022

(08-23-2022, 09:51 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Reports coming out that the US will provide Ukraine a 3 billion dollar military aid package in honor of their independence day, and to commemorate 6 months since the recent invasion started. Wow, will be interesting to get the details on this one!

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And Goose, yes you are absolutely right, the Crimea annexation, and the DNR and LPR situations were very different, no argument here.

I’m having trouble interpreting the announcement of the $3 billion in military aid. First, the announcement says the money is coming from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative instead of the Presidential Drawdown Authority.  Does that mean that Congress will need to authorize the new $3 billion separately?  Is the $3 billion coming from existing appropriations, presumably either the $13.6 billion from March or the $40 Billion from May?  Second, the announcement also says that the US is planning for more troops in Europe for the long term. Doesn’t that require additional appropriations, or is that just moving troops around from one location to another?  If the latter, then, at some point, won’t Congress need to authorize more spending for all these troop increases in East Asia and Europe?

Here’s an article with some detail (but not enough to clear up these questions, at least for me):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine-as-war-hits-6-months/2022/08/23/435669f2-2302-11ed-a72f-1e7149072fbc_story.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-23-2022

If the Russian army games were supposed to be a show of force to intimidate adversaries, they, uh, kinda backfired:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/conflictsw/status/1562138242207604737?s=21&t=rA-2NPDDspQTVkcYkvD_Hw[/tweet]

The Venezuelan commander’s expression is a meme unto itself.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 08-23-2022

(08-22-2022, 12:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I’ve seen the allegations that it was an inside job.  The best evidence seems to be that security cameras had been disconnected for two weeks prior to the bombing (though I haven’t seen that corroborated).

By the way, although I agree that Darya Dugina was odious in her own right, that doesn’t make her an appropriate target for a car bombing.  Just ask the Ukrainians, who, in denying their involvement note that unlike the Russians, they are not terrorists.

BC

BC - I would be very interested in why you say "Darya Dugina was odious in her own right, that doesn’t make her an appropriate target for a car bombing."?  As I see it the Russian invasion of the Ukraine was an act of terrorism in and of itself.  She and her father were outspoken proponents and enablers of the invasion.  At what point does action against an enabler of terrorism become wrong?  We seem to be perfectly fine with attacking those who undertake and propose terrorist actions against the USA.  Seems to me The Ukraine has every right to operate similarly.

Now was this an event caused by an outside party (The Ukraine) or some kind of payback due from within the Russian powers that be?  Is there such a thing as an underground Russian rebellion going on?  One thing that seems apparent at this point is that the we are not revisiting Napoleon or Hitler's operations against Russian, at least not now.  Those invaders found themselves lost in the vastness of the Russian Homeland, the Winter Weather, and the staggering willingness of the Russian Peoples  to defend their homeland against invaders and suffer as a consequence.

Now the shoe is on the other foot.  Russian is playing the role of the aggressor against another Slavic Peoples who seem well equipped to suffer mightily to defeat an invader.  Another example is the actions taken by the French Resistance against the Germans and the those Frenchmen who elected to align themselves with the Germans. Were the assignations, bombings and other actions taken against those individuals Terrorism or the legitimate actions of an occupied people to help free themselves?

I would like to hear your views.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-23-2022

(08-23-2022, 01:19 PM)GK3 Wrote:  

(08-22-2022, 12:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I’ve seen the allegations that it was an inside job.  The best evidence seems to be that security cameras had been disconnected for two weeks prior to the bombing (though I haven’t seen that corroborated).

By the way, although I agree that Darya Dugina was odious in her own right, that doesn’t make her an appropriate target for a car bombing.  Just ask the Ukrainians, who, in denying their involvement note that unlike the Russians, they are not terrorists.

BC

BC - I would be very interested in why you say "Darya Dugina was odious in her own right, that doesn’t make her an appropriate target for a car bombing."?  As I see it the Russian invasion of the Ukraine was an act of terrorism in and of itself.  She and her father were outspoken proponents and enablers of the invasion.  At what point does action against an enabler of terrorism become wrong?  We seem to be perfectly fine with attacking those who undertake and propose terrorist actions against the USA.  Seems to me The Ukraine has every right to operate similarly.

Now was this an event caused by an outside party (The Ukraine) or some kind of payback due from within the Russian powers that be?  Is there such a thing as an underground Russian rebellion going on?  One thing that seems apparent at this point is that the we are not revisiting Napoleon or Hitler's operations against Russian, at least not now.  Those invaders found themselves lost in the vastness of the Russian Homeland, the Winter Weather, and the staggering willingness of the Russian Peoples  to defend their homeland against invaders and suffer as a consequence.

Now the shoe is on the other foot.  Russian is playing the role of the aggressor against another Slavic Peoples who seem well equipped to suffer mightily to defeat an invader.  Another example is the actions taken by the French Resistance against the Germans and the those Frenchmen who elected to align themselves with the Germans. Were the assignations, bombings and other actions taken against those individuals Terrorism or the legitimate actions of an occupied people to help free themselves?

I would like to hear your views.

BC can and will answer, but since my comment on the late Ms. Dugina is referenced, I want to clarify two things.

1. I've no reason to believe Ukraine was responsible for the bombing. Seems to me like a Russian political assassination. If so, the question would then be who did it and why? Those answers won't become evident for a while if they ever do.

2. Political assassinations are the only option when wanting to rise up against a fascist and anti-democratic system of government. As someone who detests fascism, authoritarianism, and believes those who advocate for, enable, or participate in genocide have no value to a civil society, my firm position is we are all better off when they are snuffed out of existence.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-24-2022

It looks like we are getting details of the almost 3 billion dollar package announced today.  Notably, 6 NASAMS and 250k rounds of artillery.  The US has now promised 8 total NASAMS, we can probably predict most of the cities these will protect.  

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1562473193037647874?s=20&t=_OKfsgdGR7Df3SyS9cl-vA

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-24-2022

(08-24-2022, 09:37 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It looks like we are getting details of the almost 3 billion dollar package announced today.  Notably, 6 NASAMS and 250k rounds of artillery.  The US has now promised 8 total NASAMS, we can probably predict most of the cities these will protect.  

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1562473193037647874?s=20&t=_OKfsgdGR7Df3SyS9cl-vA

I actually hope the NASAMS are used aggressively (at least in some cases) to protect Ukrainian forces advancing against Russian forces from air attack. The NASAMs are effective against aircraft and slow cruise missiles. They are useless against tactical ballistic missiles and the "repurposed" high-speed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. The "protection" is relative. They will protect a circle of radius 25 km (give or take) against Kalibr and similar missiles 100%. If the missiles are flying higher than the minimum operational altitude, the radius expands accordingly. This assumes no cooperative engagement capability, which is pretty much for sure true in Ukraine.

The next question is when will they show up? I have seen no announcement of a contract being placed. This gives me little confidence that it will be soon. It could be the government has decided to go into stealth mode on this, but for sure that was not initially the case. I would suggest the Ukrainians no hold their breath. Maybe by spring.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-24-2022

Interesting photo of apparent HARM damage on a Russian Tor-M2. This is a pretty modern short/medium range system that should theoretically have capability to shoot down a HARM. Theoretically.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1562552113535692800?s=20&t=AVyFIMG1XvVORs-UKiVL3A[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-24-2022

(08-24-2022, 02:52 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Interesting photo of apparent HARM damage on a Russian Tor-M2. This is a pretty modern short/medium range system that should theoretically have capability to shoot down a HARM. Theoretically.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1562552113535692800?s=20&t=AVyFIMG1XvVORs-UKiVL3A

Great this happened! While the TOR theoretically has the ability to shoot down a HARM, doing so requires a decision by the operators to engage it. Doing so requires them to keep their radar active, which makes them a target for a second HARM. The TOR is also a very short-range weapon. While it may detect the HARM at a significant distance, it has to form a good track very quickly. If the engagement radar doesn't lock on right away, you are out of time. Also if they spend all their assets protecting themselves they can't protect what they are supposed to be protecting.

Not a great endorsement of the so-called Integrated Air Defense if the TOR was left on its own, unless it was covering a Russian unit moving, which is unlikely given that nowhere is Russia significantly advancing. OTOH, normally a TOR would be attacked to protect an inbound air attack on whatever the TOR was protecting. We don't know that story. Going after a TOR by yourself not supporting an inbound attack would not be viewed favorably by the Command structure in a US unit. Ukraine however has so few HARM capable jets the SOP may be different.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-24-2022

This seems cool and new. This conflict is a great proving ground for US anti drone weapons.

[Tweet] https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1562518061370191875?s=20&t=lLP-OaQ4Gvkuy6-HC3qc5A[/tweet]

...


More here. Looks pretty sweet.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1562641818252378113?s=20&t=bSepFEX-IDZN9KCby8sCXw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-25-2022

When will U.S. send Ukraine some directed energy (laser) weapons to try out on Russia's military assets?

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