Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-19-2022

(08-19-2022, 11:59 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/ej_burrows/status/1560601884666146816?s=21&t=pBPHrPlMhY13EJXBqRkqJQ

This, if true, would be good news for the Ukrainians, as it will make Russia’s preferred mode of attack (carpet the ground with artillery in order to support a slow plodding territorial advance) much more difficult.

The whole thread is worth a read, including the assessment of the once proud Russian Black Sea fleet.

BC

Despite the repeated optimistic quotes we have seen (for a period of several months) in the press, Russia is nowhere close to running out of ammunition. The fact they are taking ammunition from "deep storage" indeed reflects the very large consumption of artillery rounds the Russians continue to use (PER DAY) in the Ukraine. However, if one looks at how much ammunition Russia had stockpiled in the early 90s, it truly boggles the mind. NATO of course wouldn't use 30 (or more) year old ammunition. It would have been disposed of long ago. Russia however "never throws anything away". They will use their old (and very old) ammunition. Lots of it won't be effective and it will undoubtedly cause them problems. Old ammunition is more subject to sympathetic detonation, often produces "stuck rounds", and often produces "short" rounds. It is much more dangerous to handle and transport. Still, the Russians can continue firing away for a very long time with quantities similar to what they used previously in Luhansk. Remember while they were doing that they were also exerting considerable artillery pressure "all along the line of contact". Ukraine still repeatedly points out how badly they are out-gunned for a good reason. Russia will also manufacture as much artillery ammunition as it can. These shells don't require anything "high tech" and most of the raw materials are available in Russia. The winter slowdown will certainly help this process.

Ukraine's best bet is to continue interdicting the transport of this massive ammunition supply. Their HIMARS activities along with their behind the lines sabotage will add up. Hopefully, it can be effective enough to mitigate the Russian artillery advantage. Deeper into Russia unconventional attacks can greatly reduce the "stockpile" of artillery ammunition. Some of the dumps are absolutely massive. No idea what Ukraine can actually execute but they have surprised before. Ukraine also needs to improve it's counter-battery capability, which is certainly doable. Obviously, overrunning the enemy artillery is the "preferred" solution, but failing that the other two options are Ukraine's only choices. Russian artillery isn't going away on it's own.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-19-2022

US sending more HARM missiles per the latest tranche of aid.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1560657016498307072?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg
[/tweet]

Air defenses VERY active today over Crimea and Sevastopol. Yesterday there was AD activity over Kerch Strait Bridge.

Here are some videos

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560716889449500672?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg
[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560686460830982146?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg[/tweet]

These are presumably Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. They are probing deep into Crimea. Gonna be HARM time soon!

Roadside mine attack

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560685203525443586?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg
[/tweet]

NASAMS expected in 2-3 mos

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1560659258479235073?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg[/tweet]

I think the Zaporhizia power plant thing will turn out ok. This is promising at least, though Putin of course can't be trusted 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1560642308458127361?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg[/tweet]

Ukraine is getting a surveillance satellite

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/charlyjsp/status/1560602440327499777?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg[/tweet]

HINT

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1560690122110148608?s=20&t=1dmm0-Ic9l2OT5SdAtr5-Q[/TWEET]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-19-2022

(08-19-2022, 01:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  US sending more HARM missiles per the latest tranche of aid.

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1560657016498307072?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg

HARM missiles are good news. Makes one wonder if Ukraine actually has several launch platforms available, not just one.
TOW missiles are probably not good news. Javelins are pretty much a replacement, so we are sending "older" weapons in this shipment.

Quote:Air defenses VERY active today over Crimea and Sevastopol. Yesterday there was AD activity over Kerch Strait Bridge.

Here are some videos

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560716889449500672?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560686460830982146?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg

These are presumably Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

Could be, but it also could be an exercise aimed at convincing residents of Crimea that there is actually any air defense there. Hard to know. Russians do strange things at times.

Quote:They are probing deep into Crimea. Gonna be HARM time soon!

We all hope so. Lots of possibilities in terms of what Ukraine might do in Crimea. I think more sabotage is a given. There is also the question of why Russia had gathered many S-300/S-400 systems together in the same weapons park (which Ukraine destroyed). They are doing the same in Belarus. Makes no sense to me. Target rich environments work well for Ukraine.

Quote:NASAMS expected in 2-3 mos
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1560659258479235073?s=20&t=9_s1vbJZx8ti6MUiGvp4gg

This is probably not "new" news. I was unable to find a recent quote to that effect. That said, there are two very discouraging facts here. First, at best they are still talking "several months", and second there is no announcement of a contract. Seems no progress here at all. Of course, there may be progress and they just aren't making it public. Having an NASAMS near Kherson could allow Ukraine's air force to operate while denying that ability to the Russians. Could be a big nasty surprise if used that way.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-19-2022

Answering the question we had pondered earlier, Ukraine is using Mig29s as the platform for the HARM missiles.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-mig-29s-are-firing-agm-88-anti-radiation-missiles

Quote:"The aircraft that the Ukrainians have integrated – and you're right, this is a Western produced missile – the aircraft that they have integrated it with is their MiG aircraft. So they have actually successfully integrated it. [This] is something that we determined would be technically feasible. And based on that feasibility determination, we provided them with this capability. So this is actually the second tranche of HARMs that we're providing."

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-19-2022

The reactors in Zaporizhia are designed to withstand an airplane crashing into them; that’s probably not an issue.  The issue is that the cooling system requires electricity to power the pumps, and the grid is vulnerable. There are backup generators, of course, but as we learned in Fukushima, those are vulnerable as well.

BC

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Goose, the Ukrainians seem to be obliging…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/drnewbold/status/1560754021513670656?s=21&t=jv1W7rk8GOX242w5EcUZGA[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-19-2022

(08-19-2022, 03:23 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Answering the question we had pondered earlier, Ukraine is using Mig29s as the platform for the HARM missiles.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-mig-29s-are-firing-agm-88-anti-radiation-missiles

Quote:"The aircraft that the Ukrainians have integrated – and you're right, this is a Western produced missile – the aircraft that they have integrated it with is their MiG aircraft. So they have actually successfully integrated it. [This] is something that we determined would be technically feasible. And based on that feasibility determination, we provided them with this capability. So this is actually the second tranche of HARMs that we're providing."

Great! It is interesting they used the same HARM picture as I did. Given that this was  done with overt US participation I would bet the GIB isn't resting his feet on the computer. It is probably a more or less fully functional install where the missile can be re-targeted in the air from the display. Undoubtedly they are able to use the HARM to detect and lock on to the target radar in "target of opportunity" situations. They aren't forced to go with only pre-briefed targets. This is a big win. The RWR not being interfaced to the HARM does restrict the acquisition capability, because the HARM itself is not a 360 degree field of view, but it sure beats nothing at all!!

The 2 seat MIGS aren't of much use otherwise, so they are great for this application. Now if they could figure out how to hang some ALQ-99 pods on them...... Just kidding (or not?).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-19-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1560507278016389120?s=21&t=jv1W7rk8GOX242w5EcUZGA[/tweet]

Russia is firing 25 - 50,000 shells a day!  In the six months since the war has started, that translates to 7.2 million shells (taking the midpoint). They have 15 million shells in storage, which they will deplete by early next year at the current rate.  They manufacture 1.5 million shells a year, so once they exhaust their stocks, they will have to slow their burn rate down by a factor of 10, or find a way to increase production.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-19-2022

(08-19-2022, 04:14 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1560507278016389120?s=21&t=jv1W7rk8GOX242w5EcUZGA

Russia is firing 25 - 50,000 shells a day!  In the six months since the war has started, that translates to 7.2 million shells (taking the midpoint). They have 15 million shells in storage, which they will deplete by early next year at the current rate.  They manufacture 1.5 million shells a year, so once they exhaust their stocks, they will have to slow their burn rate down by a factor of 10, or find a way to increase production.

BC

BC, I call your attention to the last sentence in the WWII section.

Quote:These data do not take into account about 108 million Soviet era projectiles, which were recognized as obsolete in 2010, but can be used with some risk.

That is 7.5 years worth all by itself, and they are already using them. I can also tell you that the "about 108 million" is low. There was lots of confusion about what happened to the artillery stores in the "stans". Most of it ended up in Russia although that was never publicly acknowledged AFAIK.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-19-2022

Okay so some recent tweets seem to show HIMARS with ATACMS loaded in Ukraine. Not sure if this is verified but anyone have thoughts?

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1560743445748076546?s=21&t=sSp6uQvKHMxN5qt_6f8C5w

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-19-2022

(08-19-2022, 07:41 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Okay so some recent tweets seem to show HIMARS with ATACMS loaded in Ukraine. Not sure if this is verified but anyone have thoughts?

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1560743445748076546?s=21&t=sSp6uQvKHMxN5qt_6f8C5w

I don't know for sure, but that looks like the travel plate that covers the rear of the launcher when it is not going to be used for a while. It attaches to the two sides of the launcher, not the launch box itself. If I am correct, it says nothing about what loadout the launcher is carrying (if any). Again, not absolutely positive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-19-2022

(08-19-2022, 10:14 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-19-2022, 07:41 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Okay so some recent tweets seem to show HIMARS with ATACMS loaded in Ukraine. Not sure if this is verified but anyone have thoughts?

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1560743445748076546?s=21&t=sSp6uQvKHMxN5qt_6f8C5w

I don't know for sure, but that looks like the travel plate that covers the rear of the launcher when it is not going to be used for a while. It attaches to the two sides of the launcher, not the launch box itself. If I am correct, it says nothing about what loadout the launcher is carrying (if any). Again, not absolutely positive.

The shadow behind that plate though doesn't look like a 6 pack of MLRS rockets. Could be ATACMS or could be an empty. I haven't seen this on other OSINT accounts but intriguing for sure.

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Interesting theory

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1560764185872666624?s=20&t=KWzXfgxCR1hEEa-0y1F4wg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-20-2022

Another embarrassment for the Black Sea fleet, whose headquarters were hit by a drone.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1560883505911005185?s=21&t=N1soLvYKFdnxhnSO9Br6Yg[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-20-2022

What airdefense doing?

But in all seriousness, Russia has to be getting nervous about all the attacks on Crimea...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-20-2022

(08-20-2022, 08:07 AM)Treefence Wrote:  What airdefense doing?

But in all seriousness, Russia has to be getting nervous about all the attacks on Crimea...

Shooting down small drones has always been hard. They are hard to see on radar because 1) They are small. They have few metal parts. 2) They fly at low altitudes minimizing the time they are above the radar horizon. 3) They are slow, which means they have little Doppler to help with detection.

The attacks on the airfield and ammunition dumps are undoubtedly causing the Russian command some serious heartburn. This is the real "meat and potatoes" of the unconventional warfare going on throughout the "temporarily occupied territories" and into Russia itself. These serious attacks are tactically significant.

The attacks by small drones probably don't cause the high command much angst, but they for sure cause Russians in Crimea angst. It shows Ukraine has reach there, and that isn't what has been the "conventional wisdom" to the Russian public since 2014. For good reason, the "average" Russian doesn't trust his government. This is just another reason to get out of Crimea if you can. If these drone attacks can happen, what next? This psychological warfare can work much better in Russia than it would in most places because there is no trustworthy source of information. Rumor has a real place as a source of truth in their society. These little drones can become a big threat after a trip through the rumor mill.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-20-2022

(08-20-2022, 08:07 AM)Treefence Wrote:  What airdefense doing?

But in all seriousness, Russia has to be getting nervous about all the attacks on Crimea...

It's is really hilarious to watch that dinky slow drone tooling around Sevastopol before blowing up their Fleet Headquarters. Truly, what air defense doing. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/DreamsPirate/status/1560693325480476672?s=20&t=ogc0qw4ACjRInziZigk0XA[/tweet]

Join NAFO. Delete vatniks.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-20-2022

(08-20-2022, 08:26 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(08-20-2022, 08:07 AM)Treefence Wrote:  What airdefense doing?

But in all seriousness, Russia has to be getting nervous about all the attacks on Crimea...

Shooting down small drones has always been hard. They are hard to see on radar because 1) They are small. They have few metal parts. 2) They fly at low altitudes minimizing the time they are above the radar horizon. 3) They are slow, which means they have little Doppler to help with detection.

The attacks on the airfield and ammunition dumps are undoubtedly causing the Russian command some serious heartburn. This is the real "meat and potatoes" of the unconventional warfare going on throughout the "temporarily occupied territories" and into Russia itself. These serious attacks are tactically significant.

The attacks by small drones probably don't cause the high command much angst, but they for sure cause Russians in Crimea angst. It shows Ukraine has reach there, and that isn't what has been the "conventional wisdom" to the Russian public since 2014. For good reason, the "average" Russian doesn't trust his government. This is just another reason to get out of Crimea if you can. If these drone attacks can happen, what next? This psychological warfare can work much better in Russia than it would in most places because there is no trustworthy source of information. Rumor has a real place as a source of truth in their society. These little drones can become a big threat after a trip through the rumor mill.

There would be some sort of poetic justice if Ukraine was able to liberate Crimea thanks to "These little drones" after Crimea was annexed thanks largely to "little green men." I know we've seen partisan activity in Kherson and Melitopol, it would be nice to see a large uptick in all temporary occupied areas.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-20-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1559625301273059333?s=21&t=RZ_RG-t2JlogaoS0CSFpkg[/tweet]

Russian tanks not exactly covered in glory here.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-20-2022

(08-20-2022, 11:21 AM)Treefence Wrote:  There would be some sort of poetic justice if Ukraine was able to liberate Crimea thanks to "These little drones" after Crimea was annexed thanks largely to "little green men." I know we've seen partisan activity in Kherson and Melitopol, it would be nice to see a large uptick in all temporary occupied areas.

These little drones are indeed a weapon. What the Russian residents of Sevastopol also realize is that these little drones don't fly all that far. They are almost certainly being launched from inside Crimea and possibly from inside Sevastopol itself. One slight correction. While both Luhansk and Donetsk saw lots of activity by "little green men", Crimea was annexed via Russian regular forces that were present in large numbers because Russia rented the Sevastopol navy base from Ukraine. There was lots of resident Naval Infantry. It also helped that the population of Crimea was fairly heavily Russian.

There have been several references to the "destruction of Black Sea Fleet aviation" by the recent partisan activity. While this activity was important and very significant, several facts must be noted. First, the destroyed aircraft count is 13 planes, some of which were very obsolete SU-24s. Not exactly the "big deal" the headlines indicate.

This fact ties in with the above because Black Sea Fleet aviation exists at all only because there was a treaty obligation that no Russian planes would be stationed in Crimea except naval aviation. Naval Aviation was assumed to mean anti-submarine helicopters and possibly IL-38 ASW aircraft. Naturally, since the treaty didn't specify this, Russia transferred a ground attack squadron to the Black Sea Fleet and called it "Naval Aviation". Russian Naval Aviation hasn't fared well under Putin, although the western press insists on calling units that were transferred from the Fleet to the Air Force "Naval Aviation". Aside from the Black Sea Fleet for the reason mentioned above, there is no Russian Fleet Air. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Aviation.

Quote:As of 2012, the only fixed wing strike and fighter aircraft of Russian Naval Aviation are the Su-33 fighters and Su-25UTG attack aircraft of the 279th Regiment (forming the Admiral Kuznetsov's carrier air wing), plus the Su-24 bombers based in the Crimea. This sole bomber unit remained part of Naval Aviation as an exception to satisfy treaty requirements governing Russian forces deployments on Ukrainian territory (these must be part of the Black Sea Fleet).[22] Buying brand new multirole Sukhoi Su-30SM for the Black Sea Fleet to replace Su-24 was in the planning stages and it has been completed as of December 2016.[23] Naval aviation also retains the anti-submarine aircraft of the forces (the Tu-142 and the Il-38) and the helicopter arm.

In fairness to the press, the Russian "re-re-re-re-organization" is such a mess it is unclear who actually reports where. What is clear is the Navy lost it's long-range strike bombers and all it's fighters except those in Crimea and the air wing (such as it is) of the Kuznetsov.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-20-2022

Am I missing something or was the Black Sea fleet pre-attack only something like 50 planes?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Aviation

Black Sea Fleet Air Arm – HQ Sevastopol (status in 2010)[18][19]

• 25th ASW Helicopter Regiment (25-й ОКПЛВП) - HQ at Kacha, Crimea - ~20 helicopters of types Ka-27 and Mi-14
  
• 917th Composite Aviation Regiment (917-й ОСАП) - HQ at Kacha, Crimea - ~10x Antonov transport aircraft of types An-12, An-26, An-2, 4x Be-12; ~10x Mi-8
  
• 43rd Naval Attack Aviation Regiment (43-й ОМШАП)[when?] - HQ at Gvardeyskoe, Crimea - 18x Su-24M; 4x Su-24MR[citation needed]; the Crimean Saki Naval Airfield portion of the regiment was decimated in a 9 August 2022 attack by Ukraine during the Russo-Ukraine war[20]
  

I count 30 helicopters (including the 10 Mi-8), 10 transport planes, and 22 jets (18 Su-24M, and 4 Su-24MR).  Loss of 13 of those would seem to me to be quite significant.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-20-2022

(08-20-2022, 01:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Am I missing something or was the Black Sea fleet pre-attack only something like 50 planes?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Aviation

Black Sea Fleet Air Arm – HQ Sevastopol (status in 2010)[18][19]

• 25th ASW Helicopter Regiment (25-й ОКПЛВП) - HQ at Kacha, Crimea - ~20 helicopters of types Ka-27 and Mi-14
  
• 917th Composite Aviation Regiment (917-й ОСАП) - HQ at Kacha, Crimea - ~10x Antonov transport aircraft of types An-12, An-26, An-2, 4x Be-12; ~10x Mi-8
  
• 43rd Naval Attack Aviation Regiment (43-й ОМШАП)[when?] - HQ at Gvardeyskoe, Crimea - 18x Su-24M; 4x Su-24MR[citation needed]; the Crimean Saki Naval Airfield portion of the regiment was decimated in a 9 August 2022 attack by Ukraine during the Russo-Ukraine war[20]
  

I count 30 helicopters (including the 10 Mi-8), 10 transport planes, and 22 jets (18 Su-24M, and 4 Su-24MR).  Loss of 13 of those would seem to me to be quite significant.

BC

You are quite correct. The "Fleet Air Arm" of the Black Sea Fleet is a joke. The helicopters are either ASW (KA-27) or transport helicopters. The only relevant war fighting capability was in the 43 Naval Attack Aviation Regiment. As the Wikipedia article states elsewhere, some of the obsolete Su-24s had been replaced by Su-33s. While it is true the loss of 13 aircraft is indeed a very significant blow to the 43rd, my point was that the entire "Fleet Air Arm" is insignificant. You aren't going to do too much damage with 22 or so planes, over half of which are obsolete and which are not equipped with stand-off weapons. Their operational significance is pretty close to nil.

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