Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-04-2022

(08-04-2022, 07:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Just to be clear, German energy policy is important to Ukraine, even though I didn’t connect the dots.  In order for Ukraine to continue to hold out against Russia, it will need support from the west. Russia is withholding natural gas from Western Europe, in an explicit bid to make European support for Ukraine costly. Thus, the ability of Germany to withstand the coming winter without large numbers of Germans freezing to death and without triggering a massive contraction in German industry is vital. Being able to maintain the three nuclear power plants scheduled for decommissioning would keep 65 TW of electricity online, which is equivalent to 7.4 million cubic feet of natural gas per hour of operation.  In 2019, Germany consumed 8.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, so while it isn’t a make or break amount, it would represent about 2% of daily natural gas use.  Remember that the EU is trying to cut natural gas consumption by 15%, so the 2% would make a dent.

BC

While I basically agree with you BC, on the "freezing to death" front there are equivalence problems. Most Germans heat their houses with fossil fuels. More electricity only helps in so far as everybody can buy space heaters. Another way to look at it though is that every therm of gas not burned generating electricity is available to heat people's homes. Indirect, but still there.

IMHO Putin is going to cut off Germany and the rest of the EU completely in the October/November time frame. He is going to get as much cash as he can beforehand, but when it gets cold enough to do real damage, he will close the spigot. They better be getting ready, because it is going to happen. Gas is too big a weapon to not use it for maximum effect.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-04-2022

You are looking at it from the heating perspective, not the electricity perspective. The 65 TW of electricity that’s used to keep the lights on have to be made up somehow (or consumption has to be reduced), and in a world with abundant natural gas, that is the easiest way to do so, since natural gas plants are pretty rampable so there is spare capacity.  Even if you weren’t planning to replace those 65 TW with electricity generated from gas, the fact that those 65 TW aren’t being decommissioned would let you reduce gas produced electricity by natural gas turbines by the natural gas equivalent of 65 TW.  Crucially, you can do that during the summer, which would let Germany build up its storage supplies (currently just north of 60% full, which they probably need to get to 80% by October).

It doesn’t exactly work this way, but about the same share of German electricity comes from natural gas as comes from nuclear.  Although you can’t totally get away from gas produced electricity (because it is so rampable, it can be titrate de to make up for the intermittency of renewables), broadly speaking, however you planned to make up for the 65 TW of nuclear power you lose, you can now use that to make up for a bunch of power you were counting no natural gas for, and use that natural gas to instead keep grandma from freezing to death.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-05-2022

Some intel from my business partner with software and graphic design team in Ukraine...

Most of her team are in Vinnytsia, which is about 2 hr drive SE from Kyiv. Ever since the start of the war, they had heard air raid sirens but never really been hit with anything. Yesterday I talked with her and she told me last week two missiles hit the town, a medical building, and I think she said an office or municipal one. One of the missiles hit just .3 miles from her lead developer's home. He speculates that because it is a pivot point for traffic to and from Poland, that's why it was hit, who really knows.  The upshot is her team that can get out of Ukraine are now doing so.

Unfortunately, this means women only. Healthy men of tithing age are not allowed to leave. And Yuri (lead engineer) now believes that the plan in Ukraine is to basically draft all fighting age men into the army or security forces this Fall or Winter.

I do not know if this is good news or bad. For my partner and me it sucks, because Yuri is a damn good engineer and a great dude, but is it good or bad for Ukraine, and of course, Russia, maybe even Europe and the world? If women mostly leave and all fighting age men are drafted to fight, what happens to the country's fragile economy and is NATO/EU going to fund Ukaine's government - that will see tax receipts plummeting while seeing war costs escalate - while continuing to provide military aid?

Then again, if Ukraine's fighting force expands by I don't know 500k-1,000k  more fighters, could they overwhelm Russia and/or weaken its forces so much it has no choice but to retreat?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-05-2022

(08-05-2022, 05:20 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Some intel from my business partner with software and graphic design team in Ukraine...

Most of her team are in Vinnytsia, which is about 2 hr drive SE from Kyiv. Ever since the start of the war, they had heard air raid sirens but never really been hit with anything. Yesterday I talked with her and she told me last week two missiles hit the town, a medical building, and I think she said an office or municipal one. One of the missiles hit just .3 miles from her lead developer's home. He speculates that because it is a pivot point for traffic to and from Poland, that's why it was hit, who really knows.  The upshot is her team that can get out of Ukraine are now doing so.

Unfortunately, this means women only. Healthy men of tithing age are not allowed to leave. And Yuri (lead engineer) now believes that the plan in Ukraine is to basically draft all fighting age men into the army or security forces this Fall or Winter.

I do not know if this is good news or bad. For my partner and me it sucks, because Yuri is a damn good engineer and a great dude, but is it good or bad for Ukraine, and of course, Russia, maybe even Europe and the world? If women mostly leave and all fighting age men are drafted to fight, what happens to the country's fragile economy and is NATO/EU going to fund Ukaine's government - that will see tax receipts plummeting while seeing war costs escalate - while continuing to provide military aid?

Then again, if Ukraine's fighting force expands by I don't know 500k-1,000k  more fighters, could they overwhelm Russia and/or weaken its forces so much it has no choice but to retreat?

I'm sorry to hear that the war is impacting you personally.  And that your lead developer and others on your team may be conscripted.  Hopefully, as a talented software engineer, he can find a military job away from the front lines and stay safe until the war ends.  

I continue to think that money will not be much of an obstacle for Ukraine in the short- to medium-term because: (1) people are fighting to avoid being slaughtered, tortured, raped, etc, so they will be willing to live with a lot less money than they previously had; and (2) the West has a brobdingnagian incentive to fund this war since it's weakening a key adversary at very low cost in life and limb to those Western countries.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-05-2022

(08-04-2022, 10:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  It doesn’t exactly work this way, but about the same share of German electricity comes from natural gas as comes from nuclear.  Although you can’t totally get away from gas produced electricity (because it is so rampable, it can be titrate de to make up for the intermittency of renewables), broadly speaking, however you planned to make up for the 65 TW of nuclear power you lose, you can now use that to make up for a bunch of power you were counting no natural gas for, and use that natural gas to instead keep grandma from freezing to death.


BC

Agree, thus my "indirect but still there comment". Just wanted to point out direct equivalence wasn't required to make the electricity useful, but you did it much more clearly than I did.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-07-2022

Ukraine seems to have previously undisclosed AGM88 HARM anti-radiation missiles for taking out radar/air defense systems.

The launcher is unknown at the moment. Could be adapted to Ukrainian planes or a novel ground launch set up.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1556280465207701504?s=20&t=AkHgb83uu3aFEIesxLc9nA[/tweet]

.....


More on this. Good news. Will make Russian radar operators think twice...

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556696165760081926?s=20&t=cFI9661oSUpkyiQ0GOWs6w[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 08-09-2022

Estimates by the US are that some 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-many-as-80-000-russian-troops-hurt-or-killed-in-ukraine-pentagon-says-11659989514?mod=djem10point

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-09-2022

Saki Air Base in Crimea, far from frontlines and out of HIMARS range, with some big booms today. This is my favorite view of it

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557016719012626432?s=20&t=7-K9lSseFeRZkV0-kgQXhw[/tweet]

Neptun in ground attack mode? ATACMS? Drone? Sabotage?

In any case it kicks ass. Crimea is Ukraine. Best to cut that beach vacation short while Kerch Strait Bridge still stands.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 08-09-2022

This morning there were brobdingnagian explosions in Crimea at the Saki airbase.  There were some rumors that Ukraine got ATACMS but they weren't mentioned by the US.  The munitions for HIMARS that Ukraine has wouldn't have this range.  Some speculate that possibly Neptune missiles?  You can see in this video twin explosions, likely ruling out the chance that it was an accident as Russia is claiming.  I saw an unverified account say the US confirmed that Crimea is fair game as well as the Kerch Straight Bridge, but time will tell on that one.  There were lots of Russian planes at the base just before the attack, hopefully satellite images will let us know if any were hit.  

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557028151578005505?s=20&t=LRoL-ETM5OrZFd2rM8jZFg

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1557027629298880513?s=20&t=LRoL-ETM5OrZFd2rM8jZFg

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-09-2022

ATACMS would be plausible- Ukraine has supposedly had Neptun missiles for a long time but only once have they been used. Would seem strange to suddenly throw two of em at a ground target. Ukraine has claimed the attack was with weapons of Ukrainian manufacture however.

It would be consistent with past weapons deployments for ATACMS to show up on battlefield before it has been announced, such as with the AGM88 missiles most recently.

But no missiles are visible or audible in the many videos of the incident. A bit of mystery for now, but in any case Russians know that even out of HIMARS range they are in danger.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-09-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-confirms-transfer-anti-radar-092800184.html
The AGM-88 situation is very puzzling to say the least. I am virtually certain Ukraine has no aircraft that can launch this missile. The HARM is probably the most difficult missile to interface with the aircraft. Given that, it would need to be a ground launch. The Israelis have done this with older HARMS. It generally doesn't work well. The HARM is designed to detect the target radar and guide itself directly to the radar antenna. Thus the name "HARM" and the relatively small warhead for a 780 lb missile. The HARM fragmentation warhead is designed to shred the target. It relies on the fact electronics vans are pretty fragile.

The radar horizon (if both the HARM launcher and radar are 2 meters AGL) is on the order of 12 km. The missile can't see the target. It is possible to program the target parameters into the missile and launch it anyway, hoping that when it gets in the air it can "see" the target radar and lock on to it. That means you need some way to know the "radar" is transmitting. If it isn't, or if it shuts down "soon enough", the "basic" HARM will almost certainly not kill it. The AARGM (AGM-88E) has an infared CCD imager and a W band radar imager that can "recognize" target radars by their physical appearance signatures. The AARGM is also the only HARM with GPS capability. The article I cited above doesn't make that distinction. The AARGM can get a solution that is "good enough" to fly near the target radar even if the radar shuts down. The AARGM can then "hunt" using it's imagers until it recognizes the radar. In theory, with "good enough" range and bearing (or approximate GPS coordinates) you could launch an AARGM using that data and maybe it will find the radar without ever receiving a signal from it. It is certainly contrary to the HARM concept of operations. OTOH, if you have exact GPS coordinates of the target, you are probably better off using a HIMARS or similar. Bigger warhead so a near miss may be adequate and you don't risk the AARGM wandering off somewhere.

We don't know which version Ukraine got. I kind of hope not AARGM. The joke about this missile was that it is smarter than most people you know, but for what it costs, it should be. Shooting at S-300 radars and the like from ground launchers that can't "see" the radar will use up tons of missiles and probably not hit much. Firing it from altitude would be a different story, because there the HARM can "see" the radar. Presumably, Ukraine can't do that. Given this, I would trade ATACMS for HARMS (even AARGMs) any day.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 08-09-2022

If you scroll up you will see undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl stated the platform was Ukrainian Aircraft. So seems like they must have jury rigged some sort of setup for this.

More on the AGM HARM here-

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-confirms-air-launched-anti-radiation-missiles-sent-to-ukraine

And interestingly, North Macedonia seems to have transferred their 4 Su25s to Ukraine. And Azerbaijan may have "donated" some that were in process of being upgraded in Ukraine at start of hostilities as well.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-rumors-spin-around-macedonian-su-25-delivery

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-09-2022

Man is it awesome to see Ukraine hitting Crimea. I've been waiting for Ukraine to send a message this war only ends with Russia with its tail between its legs, retreating all the way out of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea. 

But why in the hell is the U.S. worried about "riling up Russia" if it provides ATACMS to Ukraine, as I have read? At this point, what difference does it make? What does "riling up Russia" even mean in the context of the horrors it has visited upon Ukraine and its people to date?

If Russia had the balls to attack a NATO country it would have done so by now. So I say rile them up and show them who is boss! Give Ukraine the longer range and heavier weapons and DARE Russia to attack us or a NATO ally, and if they do, we do the finishing.

In any event, it looks like Russians illegally occupying Crimea might be scurrying back across the border to avoid what is coming to them.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1557020209650737153[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-09-2022

(08-09-2022, 11:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  But why in the hell is the U.S. worried about "riling up Russia" if it provides ATACMS to Ukraine, as I have read? At this point, what difference does it make? What does "riling up Russia" even mean in the context of the horrors it has visited upon Ukraine and its people to date?

Tsar Bomba...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 08-09-2022

(08-09-2022, 11:28 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(08-09-2022, 11:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  But why in the hell is the U.S. worried about "riling up Russia" if it provides ATACMS to Ukraine, as I have read? At this point, what difference does it make? What does "riling up Russia" even mean in the context of the horrors it has visited upon Ukraine and its people to date?eet]

Tsar Bomba...

I think we know that is nothing more than an empty threat. Or do you really think Russia wants to be obliterated too? The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict. 

Russia is nothing more than a bully pretending to be tough that will back down when punched in the face. Obama was way too feckless with Russia's invasion of Crimea, and 8 years later we saw what happens when dictators are appeased. It never ever works. Russia respects only one thing: brute force. NATO has way more force than Russia, especially after it has been bogged down in a war and having its economy destroyed for 6 months.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 08-09-2022

Mutually assured destruction is a valid deterrent when the decision makers on each side face the consequences in a way that’s aligned with the country. In this situation, Putin is not aligned with the Russian people. If he looks too weak, he could end up with his head on a block, so prudence isn’t necessarily a virtue that will advance his self interest.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 08-09-2022

"The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict."

Thanks for the laugh. . . .

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 08-09-2022

Very well done on the HARM missle roll out. A lot of chatter that a lot of S-300 and S-400 sites were hit in short timing.

 What is key here, is that as others pointed out these missles  can’t integrate into Ukrainian fighters so are just launched at high speed/altitude at pre-programmed coordinates and the missle does the rest. Since there was previously no anti-radar threat, Russian operators per report were just leaving radars on making them easy targets. This hitting them all at once without warning before they could change tactics was essential. 

That obviously won’t last. Russians will go back to limiting radar usage to avoid detection, but that in and of itself may be an even bigger benefit then the destroyed SAMs.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 08-09-2022

(08-09-2022, 10:36 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  If you scroll up you will see undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl stated the platform was Ukrainian Aircraft. So seems like they must have jury rigged some sort of setup for this.

More on the AGM HARM here-

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-confirms-air-launched-anti-radiation-missiles-sent-to-ukraine

It is still a bit unclear (no surprise) what was done. The "normal" way of air launching a HARM requires interfaces to the RWR on the host aircraft. The pilot/GIB designates the target on the RWR and the data from the RWR is transferred to the HARM. There is also a pulse coincidence gate that makes sure the target the HARM "sees" is exactly the same one the RWR sees. This is not a trivial interface. It was found necessary to allow the user to to acquire the target using the HARM alone (when the RWR for some reason would not, see ALR-67 ECP-510). This is also not a trivial interface. However, this feature can allow launching the HARM almost autonomously without much input from the host platform.

That may make a kludge possible, but even that wouldn't be easy. It is not just a matter of data bus compatibility. It is also a matter of launch rail compatibility and safety of flight considerations. The AGM-88 is 13.5 feet long and heavy. It can mess up the aircraft aerodynamics in nasty ways. Granted, there is a war on, but it seems like a big effort for Ukraine to undertake. The AGM-88 has not been supplied to any country to operate from Soviet era aircraft. While some Soviet era aircraft have been updated by NATO countries with new avionics, none AFAIK were upgraded to use NATO weapons.

As the article you linked to points out, the announcement said we provided missiles compatible with Ukrainian aircraft. We had some ex-Soviet missiles that fit that bill. The announcement didn't say we provided AGM-88s that are compatible with Ukrainian aircraft, so there is still a bit of a mystery what is happening.

If Ukraine can actually launch AGM-88 from aircraft, that is a very important capability. To take back Kherson, it is probably going to require tactical air support. Ukraine has been doing some of this anyway, but it would be lots easier if Russian radars had to shut down for fear of destruction. If Ukraine has the C model AGM-88, they can also take out communications jammers. Hopefully we will get more definite info on this as their success unfolds!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 08-09-2022

(08-09-2022, 12:45 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  "The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict."

Thanks for the laugh. . . .

The movie War Games taught me that Ally Sheedy and Matthew Broderick probably had a future in light comedy...but not much beyond that.

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