Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 07-25-2022

That’s the great thing about counterfactuals. We can just assert them and no one can prove they’re wrong. The targeting of command/control and ammunition dumps gives the other side of the argument a plausible claim that the Donbas battle would have turned out differently with HIMARS, but we’ll never know. Stepping back from this one example, it seems obvious that Goose is right when he says it’s better strategy to execute a plan we think can win rather than execute a strategy to stop the other side’s ongoing/successful strategy. The only justification for the West’s strategy seems to be the lack of political will to do more.  But of course that can be a valid reason for not doing more. I’m not sure it’s correct to say that the West lacked the political support to provide HIMARS in March/April, but that’s plausible. If the West’s strategy is to ramp up only as more firepower is needed, I wonder where it stops.  Will we eventually get to the point where troops from NATO countries join the fight?  Even though Biden has said he won’t put American troops in Ukraine, it wouldn’t shock me to see some scenario where we have something akin to NATO country troops fighting.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-25-2022

It sounds like the rumors of Poland donating more tanks, this time their PT-91's, is true as well.  Poland has already donated more than 200 T-72 tanks, these seem to be even better upgraded tanks, and will likely help in potential offensives.  They have over 230 of them, in an interview it was said they wouldn't send all, but they would send many.  Poland is trying to become the strongest western land military in Europe, with some brobdingnagian additions to their military.  The bond between Ukraine and the Visegrad countries (except Hungary) is impressive.  Slovakia keeps hinting at wanting to send their modernized MiG-29's, I get the feeling we will find out after they are delivered, or never.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1551309865749843968?s=20&t=fGhmrHa6fcYXfe3cdcvUuA

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 07-25-2022

(07-24-2022, 07:26 PM)paloalto Wrote:  It seems like the West is giving Ukraine just enough weapons to not lose the war.

Possibilities: The US is slow-rolling aid to Ukraine--
1. in hopes of bleeding out Russia such that Russia ceases military action of their own accord and isn't pushed into a corner.  This greatly depletes Russia's military capabilities in the long run (but solidifies China's status as the pre-eminent global counterweight to US primacy).
2. because no crisis should go to waste, and Ukraine may be a contributing issue in the upcoming midterms, or heaven forbid, presidential election in two years.  If this lasts two years...not going there, ugh.
3. because European allies want to continue dumping Soviet equipment to Ukraine in exchange for US-made/NATO-compatible arms.
4. because energy companies love the high prices.
5. because the military-industrial complex wants some nice contracts.
6. because the economy continues to exert pressure on consumers, and the invasion's continued disruption of global food/fuel markets will provide great fodder to domestic opposition in the vein of "it's the economy, stupid."

7. because we just can't move that quickly?   ...nah.

I'm throwing ideas out here without prejudice or deep thought, feel free to add any other hypotheses I've missed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 07-25-2022

I think the most likely explanation is a combination of lack of consensus among the decision makers and changing circumstances strengthening one or another faction’s arguments over time.

BC

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Good three on HIMARS…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1551668596803358724?s=21&t=BOxoO7adVWeXGMAV7Hi-Ww[/tweet]

based on the number of HIMARS Ukraine has now, they will go through about 5800 missiles; annual production is about 9000.  Also if we give more launchers to Ukraine, they will have to come from somewhere.  I’m guessing that every unit is thinking NMH (not MY HIMARS).

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-27-2022

Good article on GMLRS missile stocks and production. 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/are-there-enough-guided-rockets-for-himars-to-keep-up-with-ukraine-war-demand

Quote:While it is unknown how many rockets the Ukrainians have fired from the HIMARS it already has, Hertling estimated that 16 such systems - which are pre-loaded with six-round pods - each firing a full volley just twice a day would burn through about 5,800 rockets a month
.......
Prior to Fiscal Year 2021, the Pentagon had purchased slightly more than 50,000 GMLRS of all variants, according to the Fiscal Year 2023 U.S. Army Presidential Budget Justification Book.
.....
So in essence, at a pace suggested by Hertling, Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years, not withstanding production rates of the ER GMLRS which have yet to be set.
......
The maximum annual production rate of GMLRS is about 10,000 or about twice what is currently being called for in the current budget proposal.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-28-2022

(07-27-2022, 07:14 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Good article on GMLRS missile stocks and production. 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/are-there-enough-guided-rockets-for-himars-to-keep-up-with-ukraine-war-demand

Quote:While it is unknown how many rockets the Ukrainians have fired from the HIMARS it already has, Hertling estimated that 16 such systems - which are pre-loaded with six-round pods - each firing a full volley just twice a day would burn through about 5,800 rockets a month
.......
Prior to Fiscal Year 2021, the Pentagon had purchased slightly more than 50,000 GMLRS of all variants, according to the Fiscal Year 2023 U.S. Army Presidential Budget Justification Book.
.....
So in essence, at a pace suggested by Hertling, Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years, not withstanding production rates of the ER GMLRS which have yet to be set.
......
The maximum annual production rate of GMLRS is about 10,000 or about twice what is currently being called for in the current budget proposal.

A data point to consider is that in Desert Storm 89 M270 launchers were deployed and they fired a total of 6000 rounds of MLRS plus 32 ATACMS. In one case 3 M270s fired 287 rockets at 5 targets in under 5 minutes. This is from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System
The important point is that in a target-rich environment HIMARS can fire a prodigious number of rounds very quickly. This is one of it's major advantages. On the other hand, many of those 89 launchers obviously didn't fire much if at all. It is probable that Ukraine is doing the best they can to use the few HIMARS they have to the greatest effect possible. That would tend to increase their usage of ordinance over the "average" (whatever that is). Ukraine is clearly using HIMARS in situations where the US would use another weapon. The bridge near Kherson is an example of that. Bridges are JDAM targets, not HIMARS targets. But Ukraine doesn't have JDAMS or a way to drop them, so HIMARS has to do the job.

All that said, since we don't know how many rounds per day they are actually using, it is difficult to speculate to what degree there is a problem. If Ukraine isn't "wasting" rounds on inappropriate targets, it seems reasonable to me that we have 10 or 11 months to increase production to meet those needs. If there is an alternative weapon they should be using instead, I suspect we don't have it. If we did, we would have sent that instead.

The 10K a year production limit is undoubtedly based on what was previously ordered. Increasing production is clearly possible if it is really required and the money is provided. These are not crazy high-tech items. It is also true that four European countries plus Turkey and Israel can and have manufactured these rockets. The US Army has 5 active duty and 12 Army National Guard HIMARS battalions. Each battalion has 3 batteries of 6 launchers each. This is a total of 302 launchers. The US Marines have a maximum of about 50 launchers spread around in different units. There are also  at least 225 M270A1 launchers in Army inventory. Using the projected rate suggested by Hertling, the 302 HIMARS alone would fire 108,720 rockets a month. Nobody is panicking about that, so I think that means consumption is not expected to be that extreme on average.

It is worthy of note that we have not yet transferred even one battalion's worth of HIMARS to Ukraine. 12 of our battalions are ANG units, which are not generally the first to deploy in a crisis. Ready to fight tonight they generally aren't. While nobody wants to lose assets, shutting down an ANG unit temporarily hardly seems a great threat to national security. Also, current units account for about 350 HIMARS. 540 were built. Some of the remaining 190 have to be around somewhere. Not only that, there is an active order list from several users, including Poland. If we have to divert some and give the job a DX rating, we can do so.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-29-2022

There have been some pretty horrifying and gross videos coming out recently of Russian soldier's treatment of Ukrainian POWs, including one where a Russian castrates a POW, and then later that soldier is shot in the head.  There are also reports that more than 40 Ukrainian POW's who fought in Azovstal plant, were killed in an "attack." Russians are claiming this was a HIMAR attack, but more likely it's just another mass murder by Russians, staged as an artillery strike.  We will see what kind of reaction the west will have, it seemed after Bucha lots of heavy weapon systems were on the table.  I hope there is a reaction because these actions are almost definitely not isolated incidents, but a trend by a nation of evil.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 07-29-2022

I don't intend to expand this topic, but I suspect that lessons learned in this conflict, by aggressor, defender, and interested 3rd parties, are being considered for a potential future conflict involving China and Taiwan: The nature and amount of weaponry in place, and weaponry that could be supplied, the P.R./propaganda battle, the acceptance or not of the results by economic partners, etc.

If Russia winds up hurting badly because of this war and gets little to its benefit, the lessons may extend further than this one war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 07-29-2022

(07-29-2022, 10:01 AM)Treefence Wrote:  There have been some pretty horrifying and gross videos coming out recently of Russian soldier's treatment of Ukrainian POWs, including one where a Russian castrates a POW, and then later that soldier is shot in the head.  There are also reports that more than 40 Ukrainian POW's who fought in Azovstal plant, were killed in an "attack." Russians are claiming this was a HIMAR attack, but more likely it's just another mass murder by Russians, staged as an artillery strike.  We will see what kind of reaction the west will have, it seemed after Bucha lots of heavy weapon systems were on the table.  I hope there is a reaction because these actions are almost definitely not isolated incidents, but a trend by a nation of evil.

I am extremely concerned that these incidents are far more widespread than anyone wants to accept.  I previously linked an article talking about mass forced deportations.  What do we think is happening to the *900,000* Ukrainians who were forcibly deported to Russia after having their passports, electronic devices, and other personal items confiscated?  There are reports that Ukrainian kids are being put up for adoption by Russian families, never to be returned home.  Not all the adults are being tortured and murdered presumably, but their lives as they knew them may be over.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/13/ukraine-russia-forced-deportation-antony-blinken/

Edit: This should surprise no one. Putin also helped orchestrate similarly horrific events in Syria not too long ago. When people call Putin a murderous dictator, they are understating the truth. He's likely responsible for deaths on a scale comparable to the Rwandan and Darfuri genocides. When his record is complete, he may well be the bloodiest dictator since WWII.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-29-2022

(07-29-2022, 10:51 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  

(07-29-2022, 10:01 AM)Treefence Wrote:  There have been some pretty horrifying and gross videos coming out recently of Russian soldier's treatment of Ukrainian POWs, including one where a Russian castrates a POW, and then later that soldier is shot in the head.  There are also reports that more than 40 Ukrainian POW's who fought in Azovstal plant, were killed in an "attack." Russians are claiming this was a HIMAR attack, but more likely it's just another mass murder by Russians, staged as an artillery strike.  We will see what kind of reaction the west will have, it seemed after Bucha lots of heavy weapon systems were on the table.  I hope there is a reaction because these actions are almost definitely not isolated incidents, but a trend by a nation of evil.

I am extremely concerned that these incidents are far more widespread than anyone wants to accept.  I previously linked an article talking about mass forced deportations.  What do we think is happening to the *900,000* Ukrainians who were forcibly deported to Russia after having their passports, electronic devices, and other personal items confiscated?  There are reports that Ukrainian kids are being put up for adoption by Russian families, never to be returned home.  Not all the adults are being tortured and murdered presumably, but their lives as they knew them may be over.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/13/ukraine-russia-forced-deportation-antony-blinken/

Edit:  This should surprise no one.  Putin also helped orchestrate similarly horrific events in Syria not too long ago.  When people call Putin a murderous dictator, they are understating the truth.  He's likely responsible for deaths on a scale comparable to the Rwandan and Darfuri genocides.  When his record is complete, he may well be the bloodiest dictator since WWII.

I think you are absolutely right, but I think it's human nature to overvalue what we see as opposed to what we are told.  It's one thing to hear stories about torture and execution, it's another to see it happen and the results.  I think this tweet by Jack Detsch confirms what you are saying as well

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1553079113937784843?s=20&t=CsgyfImSvaM2CjojmAP15A

On a side note and a warning to all, don't try and look up this video.  I saw parts of a censored version of it, not given much of a warning or knowing what was happening until it was too late.

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In a complete change of subjects, Goose I was wondering if I could get your insight.  Previously we had talked about how Germany has little equipment to give to Ukraine, because they don't have a ton of reserves themselves.  I was curious how that's possible.  I know they don't spend the goal of 2% of GDP on defense spending, but given how big of a country they are, even a lower percentage of GDP, you'd expect much more stocks of military equipment to be available.  It's just crazy to me that much smaller countries, granted they are former Soviet countries, are able to give more to Ukraine than Germany.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-29-2022

(07-29-2022, 11:13 AM)Treefence Wrote:  In a complete change of subjects, Goose I was wondering if I could get your insight.  Previously we had talked about how Germany has little equipment to give to Ukraine, because they don't have a ton of reserves themselves.  I was curious how that's possible.  I know they don't spend the goal of 2% of GDP on defense spending, but given how big of a country they are, even a lower percentage of GDP, you'd expect much more stocks of military equipment to be available.  It's just crazy to me that much smaller countries, granted they are former Soviet countries, are able to give more to Ukraine than Germany.

First of all, the German government (and people) really don't want to be "involved" in this whole Ukraine war. They want it to just go away and they have a cultural excuse that their (Nazi) past compels them to stay out of wars and be peacemakers. IMHO this is somewhat self serving because before reunification they didn't believe this at all. In any case it means that if they can legitimately not do something, that is their distinct preference. This preference underlies the other factors.

As reunification occurred and the rather rapid draw down of military activity occurred Germany sold everything they could to whoever they reasonably could. The entire East German Navy was sold to Indonesia. Poland later bought a large number of Leopard tanks from Germany (and all of Belgium's) The Germans gave away lots of the DDRs Soviet era weapons that they were unable to sell. Some of the ones being given away to Ukraine actually came originally from Germany. Almost all of Germany's MIG-29s were sold to Poland for 1 euro each.

After conscription was abolished the draw downs continued at an accelerated rate. There were many armored fighting vehicles and similar things that the Germans no longer needed but couldn't sell to other NATO countries. The reasons often were the poorer countries couldn't afford them and the richer countries didn't need them. The larger German military manufactures ended up buying them real cheap (probably because they were "urged" to do so). This got them off the Heer's books and they didn't have to explain what they were doing with them. Naturally the larger defense companies were not interested in spending lots of money keeping this equipment in the best of shape. Anybody who bought it would want upgrades and the costs of restoration could be recovered then. The Gephards that someday Ukraine will get actually are coming from KMW, a private company, not the German military. The German government can say with a straight face that these units (and all the other units, like scads of BMP-1s) are not in their control and therefore they can't be provided. There are other issues like Swiss content that can be used as a excuse why something "can't be done". After all of the above, there isn't much spare equipment in the German armed forces. They got rid of it.

So where does the current German defense spending go? The all volunteer military is expensive, much more so than even in the US. To attract good people, or actually any people at all, the government has to compete with German industry. Interestingly the German NCOs that I have worked with in the last 10 years are every bit as good at their jobs as the ones from previous years. However, they are also much more dedicated to their personal career path and career choices than in the past. Lots of them will quit, which wouldn't have happened in the 80s. The only way to keep them is to pay them (and not expect them to work weekends or after 1600). That was unheard of in the 20th century.

The second big money sink is the undeniable fact that Germany uses their military budget for corporate welfare. This isn't new, and possibly isn't even "bad". Most European countries do this to a lesser or greater degree. However, in Germany, it is well towards the greater end (off the end IMHO). They buy many weapons systems in small quantities which drives up the price. They then don't actually compete lots of procurements, either because there is legitimately no alternatives or because keeping some company going is in the "national interest". U-212s cost much more to build in Germany than they do in Italy (who is not exactly a model of cost control either). An F-35 today costs 80 million each (as part of the lot 14 buy), while a Typhoon costs 124m each in "small" quantities. The Luftwaffe contracts out essentially all it's maintenance of the Typhoons to the manufacturer, undoubtedly at a big premium. How that is supposed to work in a war is another question. Then there is the A400M, big, big money. The Germans also bought the entire Dutch inventory (8) P-3C CUP that were being upgraded. Very good move, but the Germans then basically didn't use them for 10 years. (There were some serious export issues with the ALR-95. The US made no friends in Germany over that one.) The Germans then put in place a multi-million euro upgrade program for the planes they weren't using. This program was eventually canceled after spending tons of money but without completing the upgrade. It was canceled in favor of buying P-8s that would cost less than finishing the upgrade(!!!!) (thank God, finally a rational action). They also developed the MARS II version of the M270. It's claim to fame is that it can't launch cluster munitions. I guess the Germans didn't trust themselves to follow their own national polices.
 
So yes, they can spend a lot of money without having anything that can be given to Ukraine (or in some cases, anything at all). They shed equipment like mad as their force shrank. They spent the "new" money on big ticket items that aren't applicable to the current situation in Ukraine and on personnel. While it is probable the Germans could find a few things they could part with, they aren't looking too hard. Having worked with the Bundeswehr either directly or as part of NATO since the early 70s, for me this has been painful to watch. At one point Germany arguably possessed the best modern armored force in the world. As an important man said, it now stands naked.

It should also be noted that the large majority of Soviet era equipment being transferred to Ukraine from the less well off NATO countries is being "back filled" by more modern (better) NATO compatible equipment. They aren't really being totally altruistic in many cases.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-29-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-moves-military-equipment-towards-092646751.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-concentrating-remaining-forces-attempt-161000793.html

OK, the question is apparently answered. Russia will defend in Kherson Oblast and possibly intends to go on the offensive. They are moving troops from the Donbas, among other places. They are on the roads in groups of 30 vehicles or more. They are concentrated and in the open. This is a perfect target for the ATACMS that the Ukrainians do not have. Stupid beyond words.

The Ukrainians have accomplished something very important already in their offensive in the Kherson area. They have forced the Russians to react to them, instead of visa versa. IMHO it is unlikely the Russians have enough combat power to maintain two offensive thrusts, one in Donetsk and one in Kherson Oblast. However, it is critically important that the Russians suffer significant attrition while moving. It is a heaven-sent opportunity. Undoubtedly the Russians will attempt to avoid coming into Ukrainian artillery range or missile range.

I don't know what Ukraine has up it's sleeve. Hopefully something. I would be much happier if Ukraine had been able to move faster and crossed the river in strength before Russia could react. As usual, Russia is slow to react. Unfortunately, they have been given the time to do so. If Ukraine could inflict heavy casualties on them while moving, it could destroy their ability to defend. The Russian artillery strength means nothing when it is on the road. This is actually one of two "set-piece" exercises NATO used to do "Guards Armored Moving" and "Motor Rifle Moving". Unfortunately,
we didn't give the Ukraine the ability to execute those plans.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 07-29-2022

Apparently Ukrainian HIMARS is precise enough to kill all of the Ukrainian POW’s without hurting any Russian guards.  Russia’s assertions defy belief.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1553117166551048194?s=21&t=caeutkY90OfQk_CP5WYL8A[/tweet]

I can only imagine that the Russians did it to cover torture and other war crimes.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 07-30-2022

US military addressing the inventory of HIMARS and ATAMCS:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1553112083734048768

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-30-2022

Interesting that the senate is proposing money for ATACMS while Army did not request it. Hopefully bipartisan push to send it to Ukraine will happen.

Ukraine used a drone to attack Sevastopol, a first in the war, and on their Navy day. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1553607086986215424?s=20&t=84ojnki-uc3oVWSLCr1MGA[/tweet]

If Russia can't defend one of their most important military facilities from a slow drone strike, imagine the devastation a few ATACMS missiles traveling close to Mach 3 could wreak.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-31-2022

Tensions building up between Serbia and Kosovo, might fizzle out to nothing, but something to keep an eye on.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 07-31-2022

(07-30-2022, 07:52 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  US military addressing the inventory of HIMARS and ATAMCS:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1553112083734048768

It looks like SASC is proposing 2023 FY budget for Army to include $500million additional spending on AIM-9X and other similar missiles.  The article indicates this is not for Ukraine, at least not now. 

My company shipped components for AIM-9 missiles over the past twenty years.  There have been dozens of upgrades, -9X is the current one.  AIM-9X was designed for air-to-air use but was recently approved for use with Multi-Mission Launcher which is basically a truck with 15 launch tubes.  It could be used in Ukraine.

This was one of our single biggest repeat orders, usually components for about 3,000 missiles/month.  There should be tons of these missiles in storage.

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Changing the topic; what is the U. S. endgame in Ukraine?

Stay the course until all fighting age Russian men are killed?  Not going to happen.

Stay the course until Putin gets frustrated and surrenders?  Not going to happen.

Stay the course until Putin runs out of money?  Not going to happen.  India, China, Pakistan and an increasing number of countries will buy Russian oil and gas.

Negotiated settlement?  Won’t be worth the paper it’s written on.  It would only be a matter of time until Putin violates the treaty.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 07-31-2022

For a number of years prior to the “special military operation,” there was no treaty or even a ceasefire. There was just a less active, and mostly static, front line. That’s what I anticipate at the end of this, possibly along with NATO forces in Ukraine to help keep things static.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 07-31-2022

(07-31-2022, 01:29 PM)paloalto Wrote:  

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Changing the topic; what is the U. S. endgame in Ukraine?

Stay the course until all fighting age Russian men are killed?  Not going to happen.

Stay the course until Putin gets frustrated and surrenders?  Not going to happen.

Stay the course until Putin runs out of money?  Not going to happen.  India, China, Pakistan and an increasing number of countries will buy Russian oil and gas.

Negotiated settlement?  Won’t be worth the paper it’s written on.  It would only be a matter of time until Putin violates the treaty.

Kind of feel like this is not NATO’s call to make, but Ukrain’s.  Broadly speaking, we should support them fighting as long as they are willing to fight, and if they come to a negotiated settlement, we should support them there too.

Could be a while.

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/jack_watling/status/1553745899871952897?s=21&t=S5DjwJUpz0qmTkSUOcASkg[/tweet]

Interesting thread about Russian weapons, and why they are not being used to full capacity.

BC

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TreesAndBirds - TreesAndBirds - 07-31-2022

(07-31-2022, 01:29 PM)paloalto Wrote:  

(07-30-2022, 07:52 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  US military addressing the inventory of HIMARS and ATAMCS:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1553112083734048768

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Changing the topic; what is the U. S. endgame in Ukraine?

Stay the course until all fighting age Russian men are killed?  Not going to happen.

Stay the course until Putin gets frustrated and surrenders?  Not going to happen.

Stay the course until Putin runs out of money?  Not going to happen.  India, China, Pakistan and an increasing number of countries will buy Russian oil and gas.

Negotiated settlement?  Won’t be worth the paper it’s written on.  It would only be a matter of time until Putin violates the treaty.

Perhaps a strategy similar to how we defeated the Soviet Union. Just wear them down, bide our time. Few if any foresaw what happened to the USSR, we just kept the pressure on and let events take their course. Sometimes you dont know what the endgame will be or when it will happen, just need to keep evaluating and adjusting as needed. Maintain flexibility. 

Of course every situation is different. China could probably prop up Putin for a long time if it wanted to. But they will also work to reduce their dependence on oil and gas. They cant like the amount of money they are paying, even if they are getting a discount. 

Of course as BC said, this all depends on what the Ukrainians want. They are the ones really suffering. This will be costly to us, both in the supplies we send to Ukraine and the effect on international trade and related need to be less dependent on adversaries for energy, semiconductors, rare earths, etc. But right now the cost seems manageable. Its Ukraine that is bearing the vast bulk of the cost. 

My concern is that we not get too focused on Ukraine so that we arent in a position to deter China.

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