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Class of 2016 - Printable Version

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Re: Class of 2016 - TrumpCard - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 06:46 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Stephens has solid ratings and (seemingly) a great offer list: Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, Wisconsin.

I know what you are getting at.  It's not clear how many of those offers were committable.  Nevertheless, it is clear that Stephens is a heck of a football player.  He doesn't have the top end speed of some other RBs, but he's a physical kid with great football instincts.  He's proving his worth on a weekly basis against tough competition in Dallas HS football.  I'll be happy to have him on the team. 

Re: Class of 2016 - OutsiderFan - 09-04-2015

Stephens looks like a clear redshirt candidate.  He needs to put on 10-15 lbs. to gain the size and strength to make up for his lack of top end speed.  It does look like the frame is there to do just that.

Re: Class of 2016 - TrumpCard - 09-04-2015

We haven't yet watched Stanford's first game of the season, but the staff already has 16 commits, with 11 of those in the top 400 overall recruits in the country and rated 4 stars by Scout, Rivals or both.  It's a very auspicious beginning.  Let's hope the staff can close as they have the past two years.  If so, this will be a Top 10 class, which would be only the second one in the last 20+ years for Stanford. 

Re: Class of 2016 - washingtonismoney - 09-04-2015

Base-case scenario for Stephens: Stepfan Taylor, except bigger.

Re: Class of 2016 - washingtonismoney - 09-04-2015

The local paper on Stephens:

Quote:Seeing action on varsity since he was a freshman, Stephens ran for 1,268 yards and scored 22 total touchdowns last year as a junior. The first Plano running back to eclipse the 1,000-yard barrier in a single season since Rex Burkhead in 2008, Stephens has already set a torrid pace to begin his senior campaign with 249 rushing yards and four touchdowns through two games.

Rex Burkhead is pretty solid company to be in.

http://starlocalmedia.com/planocourier/sports/plano-rb-brandon-stephens-commits-to-stanford/article_3eee47d0-5321-11e5-b17a-7b2e95870827.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Re: Class of 2016 - FarmBoy - 09-04-2015

Quote:Base-case scenario for Stephens: Stepfan Taylor, except bigger

Your base case for a verbal commit recruit is the all time rushing leader in Stanford history? I'd like to look at your quarterly projections for the economy.

Re: Class of 2016 - CTcard - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 09:01 AM)pkpk link Wrote:I would think our ranking will eventually drop as we fill out the class with less-heralded players,

Not necessarily.
The ratings services rank classes by total points, not by points (or stars) per recruit. Thus any additions would only add to our "score". Most of the teams ranked above us have more signed recruits, presumably (but not necessarily) therefore having less room to add recruits. For example, on Rivals we are currently ranked #12 with 16 commits. Of those above us, S.-C. also has 16 and everyone else has more. In many cases a lot more - Michigan has 23 for example.

Thus there is an avenue for Stanford to work its way up even if the rest of the recruits it signs are somewhat less heralded.

Whether such details mean anything is another matter.

Quote:but if the current commits all get in and stick I would place this class in the same stratosphere as the 2012 class (partly because of balance and key positions). 

2012 is an interesting case. It was the highest ranked recruiting class by Stanford since the proliferation of ranking services. Students from that class would be seniors right now. It may be too early to judge, but at the moment I would say that the class has been good for Stanford but not so much better than other classes as its ranking might indicate. Hopefully this year will change that.

Re: Class of 2016 - washingtonismoney - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 01:46 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Your base case for a verbal commit recruit is the all time rushing leader in Stanford history? I'd like to look at your quarterly projections for the economy.

Well, sure. Stephens is not very fast, but cuts and picks his way around well...not unlike Taylor. Is it terribly likely that he gets there? Don't think so; most...speed-challenged backs end up being rather average. (Hey, Barry J!). But the best-case scenario is Stepfan Taylor.

Re: Class of 2016 - CTcard - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 02:03 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=FarmBoy link=topic=9617.msg126596#msg126596 date=1441399581]
Your base case for a verbal commit recruit is the all time rushing leader in Stanford history? I'd like to look at your quarterly projections for the economy.

Well, sure. Stephens is not very fast, but cuts and picks his way around well...not unlike Taylor. Is it terribly likely that he gets there? Don't think so; most...speed-challenged backs end up being rather average. (Hey, Barry J!). But the best-case scenario is Stepfan Taylor.
[/quote]


Ahhh typo.
base case = best case.

Re: Class of 2016 - FarmBoy - 09-04-2015

Okay, I've never heard of "base case" being used for the optimal outcome. It usually represents the floor, not the ceiling in my experience.

Re: Class of 2016 - washingtonismoney - 09-04-2015

No, I meant best case and mistyped.

Re: Class of 2016 - BostonCard - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 01:51 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=pkpk link=topic=9617.msg126562#msg126562 date=1441382484]
I would think our ranking will eventually drop as we fill out the class with less-heralded players,

Not necessarily.
The ratings services rank classes by total points, not by points (or stars) per recruit. Thus any additions would only add to our "score". Most of the teams ranked above us have more signed recruits, presumably (but not necessarily) therefore having less room to add recruits. For example, on Rivals we are currently ranked #12 with 16 commits. Of those above us, S.-C. also has 16 and everyone else has more. In many cases a lot more - Michigan has 23 for example.

Thus there is an avenue for Stanford to work its way up even if the rest of the recruits it signs are somewhat less heralded.

Whether such details mean anything is another matter.

Quote:but if the current commits all get in and stick I would place this class in the same stratosphere as the 2012 class (partly because of balance and key positions). 

2012 is an interesting case. It was the highest ranked recruiting class by Stanford since the proliferation of ranking services. Students from that class would be seniors right now. It may be too early to judge, but at the moment I would say that the class has been good for Stanford but not so much better than other classes as its ranking might indicate. Hopefully this year will change that.
[/quote]

It would be interesting to go back and do a retrospective reranking of our classes, based on actual accomplishments while at Stanford (5* = all-American caliber, 4* = all-Conference, 3* = starter, 2* = significant contributor, 1* = non-contributor).

At the top end it might be tough to beat the class of 2008 with David DeCastro, Chris Owusu, Delano Howell, Michael Thomas III, Chase Thomas, Jonathan Martin, and some guy named Andrew Luck (there were also a few busts in that class).

BC

Re: Class of 2016 - TrumpCard - 09-04-2015

Is the staff really going to fill out the class with "less-heralded" players?  If you look at 247's composite ratings, almost every single recruit still considering Stanford is in the top 600, and half of them are top 400 (which is a rough estimate of consensus 4-star status).  Those recruits are serious athletes, not what you would traditionally call Plan-B by any means.  Stewart is the one guy outside the top 600, but it's hard to call him a diamond in the rough considering he got an offer from Michigan and considering the press he got after his first game of this season.  Granted, I'm not counting Bills or Kaufusi, both of whom are LDS and going on a mission until 2018.  I also don't know the identity of the stealth recruits, but I think it's reasonable to assume that the stealth options are on par with the guys publicly expressing interest.  Maybe you are assuming that the staff is going to have to expand the current number of offers, but I see no evidence of that yet considering the yield rate the staff has achieved so far. 

Here's my current board with 247 composite rating:
Hardman 25
Robertson 39
McCulloch 77
Crawford 91
Burton 137
Rand 146
Warner 241
Carmouche 374
Jones 415
Schaffer 489
Simms 518
Okeke 525
Speights 540
Ulloa 568
Swann 589
Stewart 928


Re: Class of 2016 - CTcard - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 02:21 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:It would be interesting to go back and do a retrospective reranking of our classes, based on actual accomplishments while at Stanford (5* = all-American caliber, 4* = all-Conference, 3* = starter, 2* = significant contributor, 1* = non-contributor).

At the top end it might be tough to beat the class of 2008 with David DeCastro, Chris Owusu, Delano Howell, Michael Thomas III, Chase Thomas, Jonathan Martin, and some guy named Andrew Luck (there were also a few busts in that class).

At one point somebody (ESPN I think) did that for the 2009 class, and determined Stanford's should have been something like #2 or #3.

That was the class of Ben Gardner, Stepfan Taylor, Tyler Gaffney, Terrence Brown, Josh Mauro, Trent Murphy, Ertz, Toilolo etc.
Lots of unheralded guys who ended up being good players - and heralded guys who turned out well also.

Re: Class of 2016 - Rally - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 03:10 PM)TrumpCard link Wrote:Is the staff really going to fill out the class with "less-heralded" players?  If you look at 247's composite ratings, almost every single recruit still considering Stanford is in the top 600, and half of them are top 400 (which is a rough estimate of consensus 4-star status).  Those recruits are serious athletes, not what you would traditionally call Plan-B by any means.  Stewart is the one guy outside the top 600, but it's hard to call him a diamond in the rough considering he got an offer from Michigan and considering the press he got after his first game of this season.  Granted, I'm not counting Bills or Kaufusi, both of whom are LDS and going on a mission until 2018.  I also don't know the identity of the stealth recruits, but I think it's reasonable to assume that the stealth options are on par with the guys publicly expressing interest.  Maybe you are assuming that the staff is going to have to expand the current number of offers, but I see no evidence of that yet considering the yield rate the staff has achieved so far. 

Here's my current board with 247 composite rating:
Hardman 25
Robertson 39
McCulloch 77
Crawford 91
Burton 137
Rand 146
Warner 241
Carmouche 374
Jones 415
Schaffer 489
Simms 518
Okeke 525
Speights 540
Ulloa 568
Swann 589
Stewart 928

No Costello?

Re: Class of 2016 - BostonCard - 09-04-2015

These are guys who have not committed yet.

BC

Re: Class of 2016 - Rally - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 03:40 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:These are guys who have not committed yet.

BC

Oh.  So if you add commits to this list, it blows the lid off.

Re: Class of 2016 - TrumpCard - 09-04-2015

Tomorrow may be the biggest recruiting day of the year for UDFG. They have 10 prospects from 2016 and 12 from 2017, not to mention a bunch of commits. I was pleased to see that it will be 89 degrees with thunderstorms tomorrow in South Bend.

Re: Class of 2016 - Hey - 09-05-2015

I saw Jordan Carmouche play last night.  I heard from a friend that he's taking all AP classes. Draw your own conclusions on that one.


Re: Class of 2016 - FarmBoy - 09-05-2015

Quote:I saw Jordan Carmouche play last night.  I heard from a friend that he's taking all AP classes. Draw your own conclusions on that one.

The conclusion I would draw is that he's smart, motivated, and wants to be challenged academically. I don't know that taking all APs makes him more likely to go to Stanford. If I heard he was taking exactly 2 APs, which sounds like the minimum requirement. If I heard an uncommitted recruit was taking 2APs, that would make me think there's a Stanford lean in there.