Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TreesAndBirds - 03-14-2022

Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

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(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

Although some question now whether this was real.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 03-14-2022

...and this tweet today:

@AlexandruC4
French activist broke into the villa of Putin's daughter Catherine Tikhonova in Biarritz, France, changed the locks in the house and invited refugees from #Ukraine.


Cool! Hope it's true.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 82lsju - 03-14-2022

(03-13-2022, 08:53 PM)BobK Wrote:  Hoover Tower

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1503127690353823744?s=21[/tweet]

Quote:The iconic tower swathed in yellow and blue on Stanford’s campus Friday was meant to remind the community of the “hope that resides in the hearts of free peoples,” the lives lost and hope for a peaceful outcome to the unfolding tragedy, Rice wrote.

It is policy not to use tower illumination to mark catastrophic world events, since there would “sadly be too many to accommodate,” Rice added. However, after consultation with President Marc Tessier-Lavigne, they agreed it would be appropriate in this case, “because of the special place of Ukraine in Hoover’s history, together with the world-shattering nature and scale of this unprovoked war of aggression, and the breathtaking assault it represents on the democratic order, which Hoover, in its founding mission seeks to safeguard.”

more here

https://news.stanford.edu/report/2022/03/11/stanfords-hoover-tower-lights-yellow-blue-support-ukraine/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - jacket3ree - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 08:22 AM)lex24 Wrote:  Foreign policy board…..

Lex, the title of the thread started by Gailtate is "Way OT: Ukraine".  Seems pretty easy to stay out of it, or be in it as you see fit.  I don't read any tennis threads, for an example. I'm not trying to be snarky,* but it doesn't seem that hard.

*I'm not trying to be snarky, I am being snarky :)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 10:54 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 09:35 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 09:12 AM)Mick Wrote:  No doubt we will see that at the pump soon...

I kind of assume there was a [sarcasm] [/sarcasm] around that. Realistically, things are so volatile right now nobody is going to lower prices until they are convinced stability has returned. That won't be soon it appears. Let us suppose Ukraine and Russia reach a cease fire agreement of some kind. Does the EU then drop the sanctions? Does the US? I hope not, because if we do, Putin can claim a victory and prepare for his next adventure. However, that could happen I fear. So, even best case, things are going to remain volatile for a while.

Yes, it was sarcasm.  Somehow, the price of gas rises up with the price of a barrel of oil, but recedes at a much slower rate.
[/url]

up like up like a rocket, down like a feather

It’s a well-described phenomenon

https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/wake-county-news/up-like-a-rocket-and-down-like-a-feather-gas-prices-remain-high-after-fuel-shortage-eases/

Link is from last year.

BC

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(03-14-2022, 10:55 AM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 12:22 AM)newguy Wrote:  also, a Moscow activist has chained himself to the doors of a McDonalds in protest of the restaurant's closing.  kinda reminds me of the final chapter of The Stand.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4885416/russian-mcdonalds-fan-chains-protest/

Hold up a tablet in front of him, and show him [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food,_Inc.]Food, Inc.  Well before the end of the movie, he will be begging for the key......

I thought you were going to go for “Super Size Me”…

https://youtu.be/as2zMlxeOkw

Same effect.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 03-15-2022

(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

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(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

Although some question now whether this was real.

It seems evidence is lining up that this is just a stunt by the Kremlin.  She was only fined a couple hundred dollars for this, meanwhile people holding blank signs are being arrested and imprisoned for years.  It's likely an attempt to take attention away from atrocities in Ukraine, but it's definitely odd.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 03-15-2022

(03-15-2022, 12:12 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

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(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

Although some question now whether this was real.

It seems evidence is lining up that this is just a stunt by the Kremlin.  She was only fined a couple hundred dollars for this, meanwhile people holding blank signs are being arrested and imprisoned for years. 

Imprisoned for years? The war has only been going on for a little over three weeks?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Nan3cy - 03-15-2022

(03-15-2022, 01:41 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  

(03-15-2022, 12:12 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

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(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

Although some question now whether this was real.

It seems evidence is lining up that this is just a stunt by the Kremlin.  She was only fined a couple hundred dollars for this, meanwhile people holding blank signs are being arrested and imprisoned for years. 

Imprisoned for years? The war has only been going on for a little over three weeks?

I think that means “sentenced to years in prison.”

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - ColoradoTree - 03-15-2022

(03-15-2022, 12:12 PM)Treefence Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

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(03-14-2022, 03:19 PM)TreesAndBirds Wrote:  Russian TV editor interrupts live broadcast to protest war. 

A related tweet…“This woman has showed more bravery in 10 seconds than I have shown in my whole life”.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1503444144206888962?s=21

Although some question now whether this was real.

It seems evidence is lining up that this is just a stunt by the Kremlin.  She was only fined a couple hundred dollars for this, meanwhile people holding blank signs are being arrested and imprisoned for years.  It's likely an attempt to take attention away from atrocities in Ukraine, but it's definitely odd.

Per her lawyer as noted in the WSJ, the fine was for the video she posted on social media before the on-screen protest. She hasn't yet been charged with spreading false information about Russian armed forces, which is what we've seen folks hit with for protesting the war. That investigation is ongoing, and one suspects we'll see the same thing happen in due course. Wasn't a final adjudication, and wasn't an adjudication of the on-screen protest at all, in other words.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Phogge - 03-15-2022

News of two more journalists killed.

From all the accolades they made an impact. Takes immense courage to face combat conditions armed with a camera or a pen. You absolutely don't know what its like until you're shot at.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 03-16-2022

The value of authentic journalism in a time of disinformation warfare can't be overstated.  Here's to peace and justice, sooner rather than later.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - ca245 - 03-16-2022

(03-15-2022, 03:52 PM)Phogge Wrote:  News of two more journalists killed.

From all the accolades they made an impact. Takes immense courage to face combat conditions armed with a camera or a pen. You absolutely don't know what its like until you're shot at.

They both worked for Fox News. Watching the reporting by the news desk of Fox News and then contrasting it with slant given the commentators like Tucker Carlson can be an interesting experience. For example, the news desk called the 2020 presidential election early for Biden while the commentators were still fuming about "election fraud."

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 03-16-2022

The lay of the land at the conclusion of the third week of Russia's war on Ukraine:

- Russia has gained exceptionally little ground since invasion and not even taken any city of consequence, let alone Kyiv
- Estimates of over 10,000 Russian casualties (KIA, wounded)
- Hundreds of Russian armored vehicles and aircraft lost
- Massive military and humanitarian aid being given to Ukraine while Russia is running out of resources
- Crippling economic sanctions on Russia and imploding economy
- Strengthening of NATO
- European Union commitment to move off Russian fossil fuels
- Demonstrated military weakness
- War crimes that will be prosecuted
- Global pariah status achieved
- Ukraine withstanding invasion forces puts Russia at negotiating table in the loser's position*
- The future cost of reparations to re-build the country after wrecking it

* The word from Ukraine today is it is telling Russia it won't have its own military, but will have bases for other forces that will come to Ukraine's defense to directly fight Russia if it again attacks Ukraine. Russia in no position to demand anything.

Can someone tell me what exactly Russia is gaining from its invasion of Ukraine and how it is going to be in a better position after doing it? Because even if I squint very hard, I can't see anything, and I am really trying.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-16-2022

(03-16-2022, 12:18 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  The lay of the land at the conclusion of the third week of Russia's war on Ukraine:

- Russia has gained exceptionally little ground since invasion and not even taken any city of consequence, let alone Kyiv
- Estimates of over 10,000 Russian casualties (KIA, wounded)
- Hundreds of Russian armored vehicles and aircraft lost
- Massive military and humanitarian aid being given to Ukraine while Russia is running out of resources
- Crippling economic sanctions on Russia and imploding economy
- Strengthening of NATO
- European Union commitment to move off Russian fossil fuels
- Demonstrated military weakness
- War crimes that will be prosecuted
- Global pariah status achieved
- Ukraine withstanding invasion forces puts Russia at negotiating table in the loser's position*
- The future cost of reparations to re-build the country after wrecking it

* The word from Ukraine today is it is telling Russia it won't have its own military, but will have bases for other forces that will come to Ukraine's defense to directly fight Russia if it again attacks Ukraine. Russia in no position to demand anything.

Would that that were so. The Ukraine has already given up the right to join NATO in the negotiations. The idea that they will rely solely on forces from outside their country for defense is obviously so untenable that it is a joke. Firstly the speed of such a response could never be adequate to prevent an unopposed Russian takeover and second most of the reasons that prevent NATO intervention today would be just as applicable. Remember also that the US, UK, and Russia jointly signed the Budapest memorandum that "prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan". Given how well that worked for Ukraine no sane person could believe a disarmed Ukraine could survive. Giving up the NATO option is probably just being realistic, because NATO itself wasn't going to go along with it. Unless the war completely turns around and Russia is forced to quit, Ukraine gets totally screwed. The longer the war goes on the more probable it is Russia is forced to do that. However, in the process, Ukraine will suffer greatly. Who will last the longest?

Quote:Can someone tell me what exactly Russia is gaining from its invasion of Ukraine and how it is going to be in a better position after doing it? Because even if I squint very hard, I can't see anything, and I am really trying.

Totally agree. It is crazy. Crimea is a different case, but they already had that. Ukraine will cost them more than it will benefit them, at least for the immediate future.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 03-16-2022

Yes, it is all insane and the scary part is that Putin, showing suicidal tendencies more regularly now, has access to 000's of tactical (short-range) nukes capable of disastrous, if not outright catastrophic, devastation of NATO cities and ports. The likelihood he uses them is probably around 10-15% right now. With every bad day he has, the number grows. My hope is that the heavy-breathers in the Kremlin are coup-plotting as I write this. But as far as this side of the Atlantic, I want to see signs that we are prepping for more than more rounds of Biden's barks. I stand with Jim Geraghty (National Review):

"Clearly warn Russia that any aggression against a NATO ally would be met with an overwhelming response — conventional forces, cyberattacks, covert action, saboteurs, exposure of compromising information on Putin’s associates, you name it. We should emphasize that our response would not be 'carefully measured” or “proportional,' lest that make some Russian military chiefs think they could withstand the blow. We go full speed, broad-gauge.

"We should make it clear that our response would be wildly disproportional and inflict pain on the Russian government in ways it can’t even imagine. Instead of worrying about whether we’re provoking the Kremlin, we need to make the Kremlin fear the consequences of provoking us.

"And considering Russia’s fairly low threshold for using tactical battlefield nukes, maybe we should be sending our own signals that we might respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons with our own non-conventional response. We must make it clear to Putin that the use of nuclear weapons will not 'escalate to de-escalate,' it will only escalate to escalate." 

Of course I prefer a good, old, Ceausescu-vintage coup d'etat. Complete with Vlad's corpse, the result of a struggle, or by his own hand. Either way, game over. Back to climate change, the pronoun/culture wars and listening to John Kerry.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 03-16-2022

Just looked at this thread for the first time.  A few random thoughts come to mind.

I'm skeptical of any report about progress in peace talks.  Whenever Putin needs some time to resupply his troops he starts talking about compromises and then a day later continues bombing.

Putin claims Ukraine joining NATO is a threat.   Poland and the Baltic states have a small border contiguous to Russia and are members of the EU.  There have been EU troops in the Baltic states for years.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-16-2022

(03-16-2022, 05:19 PM)gailtate Wrote:  Yes, it is all insane and the scary part is that Putin, showing suicidal tendencies more regularly now, has access to 000's of tactical (short-range) nukes capable of disastrous, if not outright catastrophic, devastation of NATO cities and ports. The likelihood he uses them is probably around 10-15% right now. With every bad day he has, the number grows. My hope is that the heavy-breathers in the Kremlin are coup-plotting as I write this. But as far as this side of the Atlantic, I want to see signs that we are prepping for more than more rounds of Biden's barks. I stand with Jim Geraghty (National Review):

I have no idea whatsoever the probability that Putin intends to use battlefield nuclear weapons. I think nobody knows. It has been NATOs standing posture for years that the response to nuclear weapons of any type is unlimited. If Putin is at all sane, that should be enough. However, there is reason to doubt he believes NATO would respond. At this point, more threats do nothing. I think Mr. Geraghty thinks stamping one's foot harder (Biden's barks) and making threats actually matter. They may to the American public, but they don't to Russia. What Russia worries about is what the US/NATO can do and their willingness to do it. Right now, Ukraine is holding their own with the help we are giving them. Russia is destroying a lot of the cities piecemeal, but so far not in a way that Ukraine can't handle. The questions that need answering are 1) How will NATO respond if Ukraine starts to lose the war? and 2) How long will Russia keep fighting if they can't break Ukrainian resistance?
I am pretty sure that we know the answer to the first. The US/NATO will do nothing significant beyond what they have been doing. The will to do more just isn't there. Russia knows this, so to assert otherwise just isn't credible. Maybe (but probably not) the Poles would give it a go if others were on board, but nobody else will. If in fact the US or NATO intends to give weapons such as MLRS to Ukraine if things get worse, they should do so immediately. Holding back just reduces the effectiveness of an action they probably will need to take anyway. Betting things won't get worse is a bad plan.
In fairness, it is also a real tough nut to crack. Ukraine is too far away and too hard to supply for the US/NATO to commit forces there unless we intend to invade Russia. A "limited" war there just isn't possible. Russia will attack the LOC and that is Europe. They have to. The US/NATO has a better military that what Russia has shown. The way to beat it is to deny it the logistics that will enable it. Russia is not the Taliban or ISIS. They can do that. Nukes are not required, but are optional.
The second question is the unknown. Russia's military has not performed well, for may reasons. At what point does it just become clear that they can't win and need to pull back? I don't have much of a clue. Hopefully somebody in the US intelligence community has a pretty good idea, but even that depends a lot on psychology of Putin and of his generals. Yes, it would be nice if Putin met with an accident, but failing that Russia could muddle on for months. Can Ukraine do the same? Can Ukraine ever generate enough combat power to produce more than a stalemate? If not, this war could last years.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 03-16-2022

(03-16-2022, 06:20 PM)Goose Wrote:  Can Ukraine ever generate enough combat power to produce more than a stalemate? If not, this war could last years.

One could say that the war began in 2014 and already has lasted 8 years of stalemate.  Ukraine has used those 8 years to dramatically improve its military capabilities.  If Russian had invaded the entire nation in 2014 instead of 2022, it might well have had the result Putin expected.  

However, most autocrats have great difficulties in getting realistic, accurate information since the people who are in a position to deliver that information are afraid to do so.  As Putin's autocracy has become more extreme, his ability to make rationale decisions based upon accurate information has declined, and he clearly overestimated the effects of his own reforms of the the Russian military and underestimated the effects of Ukraine's reforms of its military.

Note:  Ukraine launched several small scale counteroffensives today.  It will be interesting to see if these sorts of operations happen more frequently.

If the war lasts months or years, I think Ukraine will be favored, as their military power continues to grow with fresh equipment and millions of untrained civil defense forces who will acquire more and more training and equipment over time.  Meanwhile, the best of the Russian military is being ground down and Russia will have more and more difficulty resupplying, manufacturing spare parts, and obtaining replacements for its casualties.  Russia may have to resort to expanded conscription for replacements--which it can easily do, but which not result in a highly motivated fighting force.

I no longer really fear that Ukraine will capitulate.  I fear 1) humanitarian/civilian catastrophe for Ukraine in a drawn out war, 2) death of Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders in an airstrike or other operation, 3) possible nuclear expansion of the war if and when Putin gets truly desperate.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 03-16-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1504263318067982336?s=21[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-16-2022

(03-16-2022, 07:17 PM)81alum Wrote:  I no longer really fear that Ukraine will capitulate.  I fear 1) humanitarian/civilian catastrophe for Ukraine in a drawn out war, 2) death of Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders in an airstrike or other operation, 3) possible nuclear expansion of the war if and when Putin gets truly desperate.

Agree with most of your points. Ukraine has really upped it's game since 2014. The things you fear are things I also fear. I do not think nuclear expansion is probable, but who knows what miscalculations are possible. Nuclear weapons can be used to intimidate Ukraine, but I am not sure that will work and may just push/provide justification for NATO to really help Ukraine defense capabilities against missile attack. No other real use for nukes in the present situation IMHO.
My additional fear is that Russia realizes the points you made about their difficulty to maintain an offensive and simply sits where they are. That will bleed them of troops, but probably not at an intolerable rate. A further unsuccessful offensive by Russia will kill too many Russians. Staying where they are costs money they don't have, but casualties will not be too heavy.
Ukraine can't function as a country under those circumstances. No place will be fully safe. Ukraine will be essentially cut off from the Black Sea even if Odessa doesn't fall, because no commercial entity will want to enter a war zone. It's borders will be closed on three sides. It will need to generate enough combat power to push Russia out. I am not sure they can. Offenses are much more expensive in blood and treasure than defenses are.  I also fear in the event of stalemate the EU and/or the US will lose focus and let up on Russia. Dearly hope not, but I do not have a lot of confidence the politicians can retain focus when nothing appears to be changing and there is no resolution in sight. OTOH, the longer this goes on the more the average Russian will find out about this being a war of Putin's choice, not a national imperative. How does that play out?

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