Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 81alum - 06-15-2022

Ukraine apparently is running out of artillery shells that fit their old Soviet-era artillery.  This certainly points out a major problem for all those nations outside of Russia that still rely on this stuff. 

Question:  Does Russia itself have an unlimited supply of these obsolete artillery shells?  Are they continuing to manufacture them?  Will they ever run out too?

For that matter, can Ukraine (or anyone else outside of Russia) manufacture shells to fit this aging equipment?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-15-2022

Ukraine and other former Warsaw pact countries such as Poland, Czechia, Slovakia do manufacture 152mm shells and other Soviet era ammunition.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-15-2022

(06-15-2022, 08:58 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Ukraine and other former Warsaw pact countries such as Poland, Czechia, Slovakia do manufacture 152mm shells and other Soviet era ammunition.

True, but their production is minuscule and decreasing. They basically manufacture just enough to replace their current stocks as they pass their "use by" date. This is therefore not a growth industry for them. Right now, I think all they can make is going to Ukraine. Unfortunately, it isn't much.

OTOH, China makes LOTS of this type of ammunition, because they too use the Soviet caliber weapons. We just need some unscrupulous arms dealers to buy it under the cover of some other country and divert it to Ukraine. I strongly suspect this is being tried. I also suspect China knows this. Question is, do they care?

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(06-15-2022, 07:34 AM)81alum Wrote:  Ukraine apparently is running out of artillery shells that fit their old Soviet-era artillery.  This certainly points out a major problem for all those nations outside of Russia that still rely on this stuff. 

Question:  Does Russia itself have an unlimited supply of these obsolete artillery shells?  Are they continuing to manufacture them?  Will they ever run out too?

For that matter, can Ukraine (or anyone else outside of Russia) manufacture shells to fit this aging equipment?

Ukraine apparently doesn't manufacture "common" artillery shells. They were "low" on ammo when the war originally started. However, they were trying some innovative things. https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/product/kvitnik.

Russia can and does manufacture these artillery shells basically continuously. I have no idea how many they can make per week, but I am pretty sure Russia is using more than they are making. How well they can ramp up production, and if they are even trying, I don't know. However, Russia has "of immense proportions" stockpiles of most "Soviet" caliber shells, the exception apparently being 122 mm for some reason. They export lots of those, and maybe depleted their stocks. The Ukraine is claiming that Russia has been using some ammunition that is 40 years old. This results in a lot of "duds" and "misfires". It also probably results in more than a few explosions when transporting shells. The idea they are doing this is credible. Russia never throws anything away is not just a stereotype. Witness the ammo storage facility in Transnistria that gives Russia an excuse to station troops there. Unfortunately, despite a few "compromises", Russia isn't running out of ammo anytime soon.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 06-16-2022

(06-15-2022, 10:17 AM)Goose Wrote:  eapons. We just need some unscrupulous arms dealers to buy it under the cover of some other country and divert it to Ukraine. I strongly suspect this is being tried. I also suspect China knows this. Question is, do they care?

I wonder about that.  I don't they care on the whole, but I have to think the Chinese are broadly concerned about Russia as a loose cannon.  How else would you feel about a country where one of the senior politicians states that they can annihilate the East and West Coast of the USA with four Satan missiles?  Whether you're their friend or foe, it's difficult dealing with heavily armed crazy people.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-16-2022

(06-16-2022, 08:51 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(06-15-2022, 10:17 AM)Goose Wrote:  eapons. We just need some unscrupulous arms dealers to buy it under the cover of some other country and divert it to Ukraine. I strongly suspect this is being tried. I also suspect China knows this. Question is, do they care?

I wonder about that.  I don't they care on the whole, but I have to think the Chinese are broadly concerned about Russia as a loose cannon.  How else would you feel about a country where one of the senior politicians states that they can annihilate the East and West Coast of the USA with four Satan missiles?  Whether you're their friend or foe, it's difficult dealing with heavily armed crazy people.

Unless of course you too are heavily armed crazy people. Seriously, I think China would prefer not to antagonize Russia but on the other hand might prefer Russia not be very successful on the world stage. A weak Russia may be a loose cannon but hopefully also an impotent one. A strong loose cannon is not a good thing for them. I think China would sell munitions to Ukraine (indirectly) if they could credibly claim they were scammed by their customer if Russia finds out about it.  There are lots of countries that use Russian howitzers. However, they usually have few of them and little cash to buy ammunition stocks. A big order should raise eyebrows in China. Probably not a good look.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-16-2022

Over a hundred days in and Ukraine still is firing off Tochka SRBM's.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537522518067757056?s=20&t=AzUl6K4Y1qhq9TJY5NS6Sw[/tweet]

Sweet new Russian helo take down. Mi35. Apparently in Donetsk.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1537496246318944267?s=20&t=vYjecKMA6TgIakRQCzZJBQ[/tweet]

One of the downed helo's compatriots released flares at a very fortuitous time to avoid a similar fate..

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1537518876560343040?s=20&t=KfRs460e_1FpPAFC7eAjgQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-17-2022

<rant>Warning: This is just me venting. https://english.nv.ua/amp/first-us-himars-rocket-artillery-will-arrive-in-ukraine-by-the-end-of-june-50250233.html
The US has already trained 60 Ukrainian troops to operate the HIMARS. So, two weeks from now the HIMARS will arrive in Ukraine. Conservatively, 1,400 Ukrainians will die in the Donbas area in this time. Why aren't the HIMARS already there and ready to go? The 1,400 Ukrainians probably will still be killed, but at least it won't be by the Russian artillery the HIMARS can reach and destroy. They can die going forward, not retreating. This war will end. These unnecessary delays just prolong the result. Once again, even in this slow motion war, the US is either unable or unwilling to react promptly. Thank God nobody is attacking us right now.</rant>

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-17-2022

Ukraine put the Harpoons to good use.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1537822025590394884?s=21&t=ODXZMs9dJh8_VNPBVjCVJw[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-17-2022

The Bayraktar eye's view. Two in quick succession, apparently the same attack pattern as their Neptune strike on the Moskva.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1537699883817259008?s=20&t=6vpEXpRsGlaRoFhwa3nNaA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-18-2022

(06-17-2022, 06:26 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Ukraine put the Harpoons to good use.

https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1537822025590394884?s=21&t=ODXZMs9dJh8_VNPBVjCVJw

BC

It seems so. Ukraine has publicized the fact they deployed the Danish launcher they received to that area. The Danes were able to take it out of storage and send it to Ukraine in a reasonable amount of time. The tweet says British Harpoons, but AFAIK while Britain said they would send Harpoons, as of yet they apparently haven't arrived. Ukraine has not indicated they have.

There is one interesting question here. The Vasily Bekh was a 1,200 ton vessel. Such a ship hit by two harpoon missiles should have been obliterated. Maybe it was, we don't really know how long it took for her to sink. However, reports indicated she burned for a while. I wouldn't have expected that. I guess it is possible both missiles hit the prominent forward superstructure, but even so I would expect she would sink quite quickly. She was not a warship and thus compartmentalization is minimal. As a tug, she is also all engines and generators. Plus a good part of what she carried probably was designed to explode.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-18-2022

Capitalism hopefully...finds a way (said in the style of Jeff Goldblum).

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1537910087997476865?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-20-2022

Footage from some of the ballsiest missions Ukraine has pulled off in the war, the helicopter resupplies to besieged Mariupol.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1538997763391758341?s=20&t=EhPntBI4DkwnLuFg9Je68g
[/tweet]

This whole thread is incredible. 72 volunteers including 9 doctors flew IN to Mariupol while it was besieged, along with supplies, while gravely wounded were evacuated. Those pilots and volunteers must be made of something strong, I really don't have the words. The link to the whole documentary is at the end, haven't had it in me to watch the whole thing yet.

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The video is good. None of the Azov volunteers, most of whom didn't know how they would get in to Mariupol until the day of the operation, had ever even been on a helicopter before. They ran several successful missions until the Russian air defenses figured things out and started bringing down too many helicopters to continue. The ops were apparently organized by Ukrainian defense intelligence, Ukrainian air force, and Azov battalion paramilitaries. Certainly not how the US would do it. Very cool to see this sort of first hand video. You do have to wonder if the looser opsec of these sort of semiofficial operations, in a world of social media and cell phones, can be a problem.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-20-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539044145301528576?s=21&t=TJtZ7yVZZJaae23fW8W_bQ[/tweet]

Interesting, this suggests that most of the Russian troops doing the assaulting in Ukraine are “volunteers” with the Chechen national guard, Wagner Group, or the LNR/DNR, trained for about a week, and generally over 40.  Not a recipe for long term success.

BC

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Had to laugh at this one…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/drgonzo123/status/1539015357054169088?s=21&t=TJtZ7yVZZJaae23fW8W_bQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-21-2022

(06-20-2022, 04:28 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Footage from some of the ballsiest missions Ukraine has pulled off in the war, the helicopter resupplies to besieged Mariupol.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1538997763391758341?s=20&t=EhPntBI4DkwnLuFg9Je68g
[/tweet]

This whole thread is incredible. 72 volunteers including 9 doctors flew IN to Mariupol while it was besieged, along with supplies, while gravely wounded were evacuated. Those pilots and volunteers must be made of something strong, I really don't have the words. The link to the whole documentary is at the end, haven't had it in me to watch the whole thing yet.

-------

The video is good. None of the Azov volunteers, most of whom didn't know how they would get in to Mariupol until the day of the operation, had ever even been on a helicopter before. They ran several successful missions until the Russian air defenses figured things out and started bringing down too many helicopters to continue. The ops were apparently organized by Ukrainian defense intelligence, Ukrainian air force, and Azov battalion paramilitaries. Certainly not how the US would do it. Very cool to see this sort of first hand video. You do have to wonder if the looser opsec of these sort of semiofficial operations, in a world of social media and cell phones, can be a problem.

Everything about Mariupol is incredible, it's such a shame it eventually fell.  I remember in the first couple days of the war, military experts talked about how it would fall within a week.  The videos on the helicopter missions are amazing.  I can't imagine the bravery of those who volunteered to fly into the fully encircled city.  I hope all those who eventually surrendered from Azovstal make it home one day, but it's not looking good for them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 06-21-2022

Ukraine has been performing admirably, but it does look like Russia has put together a string of small wins that are collectively taking a toll on Ukraine's overall position in the Donbas:  

[tweet]https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1539397821459210240[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-21-2022

That seems like a sad, but true assessment.

There are two important questions.  The first is the rate of Russian advance.  The distance between Popsana and Lyshyshank/Severodonetsk is less than 10 miles as the crow flies.  That gives you an idea of the size of the salient.  I’d have to go back and look at the maps from early May, but it suggests a very slow Russian advance, probably less than half a kilometer a day.

So, the follow up and key question is what is Ukraine getting in exchange for this territory, and specifically, whether it is enough.  Presumably, Ukraine is hiding it’s time until Western weapons are up and running (how fast, and how much being the keys), and it is hoping to grind down the attacking army faster than its own army is being grinder down.  We know Ukrainians are suffering casualties, probably somewhere between 100 and 200 a day.  We also know that they are inflicting casualties, but who knows how many.  If Russia is really sending in 40-year-old “volunteers” with minimal training, then there is not much left.  But if their plodding advance just grinds the Ukrainians to smithereens while they stave off their losses, then there is a risk that Ukrainian resistance will just collapse at some point.  So, from the Russian side, how much of this is concentrating all their efforts in order to get one big psychological win, and how much of this is just the first of a lot more assaults that slowly take erode Ukrainian positions.

I wish I knew.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-22-2022

(06-21-2022, 10:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  That seems like a sad, but true assessment.

There are two important questions.  The first is the rate of Russian advance.  The distance between Popsana and Lyshyshank/Severodonetsk is less than 10 miles as the crow flies.  That gives you an idea of the size of the salient.  I’d have to go back and look at the maps from early May, but it suggests a very slow Russian advance, probably less than half a kilometer a day.

So, the follow up and key question is what is Ukraine getting in exchange for this territory, and specifically, whether it is enough. 

These are important questions, but there are others that I think govern the potential outcomes. Russia clearly wants to secure the political entirety of the Luhansk Oblast. Will they stop there, or keep grinding West? Do they instead shift their emphasis to the Donetsk Oblast? That is the entire "Donbas". Russia does have the option of going on the defensive for a while and rebuilding it's forces. During that time they can keep throwing missiles and such into Ukraine.

The big question is whether Ukraine has been training its forces and developing the offensive potential to attack at points of their own choosing and significantly (and relatively quickly) drive the Russians back. Russia has shown it cannot fight a war of movement. If Ukraine can, they can rapidly cause a collapse of the Russian position. Ukraine has enough troops with very high morale that can execute operations the Russians can only dream about, as the battle for Mariupol demonstrated. What Ukraine needs to have is a striking force that can utilize the Western supplied equipment to encircle and cut off big chunks of the Russian forces. With no supply and bad morale, these Russian units will probably fold up pretty quickly. Once Ukraine is on their GLOCs, the Russians have no real answer.

If, OTOH, Ukraine intends to liberate the Donbas the way Russia is capturing it, they cannot win. If Russia can control the tempo of the war, they are in good shape. Yes, they have lost lots of troops, but Ukraine has lost over 50% of their economy. The effect of sanctions on Russia is nothing compared to that. If Ukraine's intention is to use Western artillery and Ukrainian infantry to slowly push Russia back, it isn't going to work. Ukraine can't economically survive that and it will cost too many lives. The West doesn't have the 1000 guns to give or the intention of building them. Russia can tolerate the status quo indefinitely. If they can control the level and style of combat, they can keep banging away for years. The weather will support offensive campaigning for at least three more months, maybe four. After that, movement gets more difficult.

Ukraine needs a viable plan to win, not one that causes them to just hang on for years as they are slowly nibbled away in a stop and go war. The West needs to understand at least the outline of that plan and what we have to do to make that plan work. If it involves something we can't or won't do, Ukraine has to know this and re-calibrate. Hopefully, that discussion has been had, although I doubt it myself. Assuming Russia will just give up and go home isn't going to work. They won't. If Ukraine's plans involve waiting until next spring, fine, but the West needs to figure out how to keep the country afloat and fed until then. Will France, Germany et al literally "buy in"?

Different topic: What do we do about the Bears and Backfires tossing missiles at Ukraine from around the Caspian Sea? Really annoying. Granted, these are often anti-ship missiles used as air to ground but they are a constant threat and more than a nuisance if you are the one they land on?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 06-22-2022

Having Ukraine as a highly motivated and competent proxy is the best possible way for the West to combat Russian aggression. The West made a severe mistake by failing to build up Ukraine’s defenses more than it did during the period from 2014 to Feb 2022. But the West can still recover from that error by committing basically “whatever it takes” in terms of somewhat low tech weaponry that isn’t too likely to be used against Russian territory.

Edit: SAM systems even including Patriot are probably “high tech” but more defensive than offensive, so I’d give those too. I’m less sure about fighter jets.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 06-22-2022

Air defense systems are surely easier to operate and train up operators than fighter jets.

I agree that time seems to be on Russia's side right now.  Ukraine needs to have a gameplan for near- to medium-term victories and sell the West on how Western support can make it happen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-22-2022

(06-22-2022, 12:15 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Having Ukraine as a highly motivated and competent proxy is the best possible way for the West to combat Russian aggression. The West made a severe mistake by failing to build up Ukraine’s defenses more than it did during the period from 2014 to Feb 2022. But the West can still recover from that error by committing basically “whatever it takes” in terms of somewhat low tech weaponry that isn’t too likely to be used against Russian territory.

Unfortunately, (IMHO anyway), that won't work because we don't have have the weapons (type or quantity) for Ukraine to fight a "low tech" war against Russia. We can not, and never intended to do that ourselves. For that reason we are aren't prepared to help Ukraine do that, whatever our willingness may or may not be. Ukraine is going to have to fight more "like us" or we can't help them much. At one point, and maybe still, they seemed to desire exactly that. Recently, they have asked for 1000 howitzers and 300 MLRS. It seems in that scenario they want to match the Russians gun for gun. We can't do that. We don't have the weapons. A feasible plan is needed, but it is unclear anybody on our side has/will generate one. Hopefully it exists and will surprise us (and the Russians) when it is unleashed, but I am not holding my breath.

Quote:Edit: SAM systems even including Patriot are probably “high tech” but more defensive than offensive, so I’d give those too. I’m less sure about fighter jets.

Odesa could use a Patriot battery. Maybe a few other places. If Ukraine is attacking someplace and needs cover for a division sized advance, maybe there too. However, Patriot is not designed to provide a wide area IAD. We don't do that, and Patriot can't. We use our Air Force for large-scale air defense. Not a good situation unfortunately.

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