Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - CompSci87 - 05-30-2022

(05-30-2022, 09:51 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I couldn’t fix the embedding of your tweet, so I am reposting.

Deleting "mobile." from mobile.twitter.com was what was needed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-30-2022

(05-30-2022, 10:05 AM)CompSci87 Wrote:  

(05-30-2022, 09:51 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I couldn’t fix the embedding of your tweet, so I am reposting.

Deleting "mobile." from mobile.twitter.com was what was needed.

Sorry that I still can't quite get it right.  I'll try to remember to delete "mobile." in the future.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-30-2022

Looks like the Russians have made it into the center of Severodonetsk.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1531367057052385283?s=21&t=WK-BWAiH03Lj2l8ohn9kVw[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-31-2022

From what I'm hearing the Ukrainians are withdrawing from Severodonetsk with some units covering the retreat.  I'd assume they they will cross the river to the west, and hold the lines there.  It seems there are also Ukrainians holding towns to the south east, still across the river, but we will see how long.  Once all have withdrawn, I'd guess they will blow all the bridges.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-31-2022

No ATACMS (yet) for Ukraine. But GPS guided 50 mile range rockets will be a very effective weapon for Ukraine to defend the Donbas, and eventually to support counterattacks. Will be high priority targets for Russian air and rocket fire- Ukraine will need keep these under good air defenses. Russian short range air defenses will be crucial for them to protect from the drones that will surely be operating in their rear areas to try and find artillery, air defense, ammo dumps, and command and control areas that will surely be early targets for these rockets. Won't be able to hide from US satellites though, targets which I'm sure could maybe (definitely) end up in the GPS targeting controls in these HIMARS/MLRS systems. 

Shouldn't take long to learn how to use these to very good effect. Can't wait for the vids set to Ukrainian techno beats to be coming in the next few weeks. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/mgerrydoyle/status/1531794157509185537?s=20&t=XQuomjhw0cf7g0D9apkOlw [/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2022

(05-27-2022, 11:36 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1530354603748823040?s=21&t=D4JI0RhtD-GaLV7S1IvaYQ

I thought that was a well-written and well-considered assessment of the situation in the Donbas.

BC

I agree it is a pretty good assessment, which may be expected he also notes the similarities to WW I in the current situation :-). Another article with some good information IMHO is https://www.npr.org/2022/05/27/1101837145/eastern-ukraine-outgunned-donbas. Unfortunately the situation that has played out is pretty much what I said back on May 11/12. The Ukrainian forces have been unable to defeat/suppress the Russian artillery and as a result have been driven back significantly in the Donbas. Unfortunately, Russian artillery remains a serious threat along the entire line of contact, as the The New Voice of the Ukraine reports daily highlight. The Russians are banging away everywhere, even when their primary focus is the Donbas. This forces Ukraine to maintain tubes and troops in currently more "quiet" sectors, such as the Karkhiv front, where Ukraine has pushed the Russians back.

Obviously I don't have the detailed information to explain "why" the Russian artillery is being successful, but I think there are several reasons. First, they heavily outnumber the Ukrainian guns. For example, Ukraine had at the start of the war 130 2A65 Msta-B towed howitzers. Russia had 370. One can research and parse these and other weapons, but it is probable Russia had at least  5:1 or so advantage in the combat zone. Worse still for Ukraine, they don't manufacture ammunition for Soviet era guns. As reported in https://www.yahoo.com/news/western-weapon-already-helps-ukrainian-090200333.html in the last months the West has provided more ammunition for the guns that we have supplied than there is Soviet-era ammunition available. This helps explain why the "new" guns have not had as much effect as we hoped because the "old" guns are restricted by their ammunition supply and will become basically useless when this ammunition is gone. Poland can manufacture it but in limited quantity because they are phasing out the Soviet era weapons. When Ukraine says they are becoming NATO standard, they really mean it!

This is where the WW I similarity becomes evident. Then, as now, both sides didn't expect a prolonged, slow struggle with continually heavy artillery engagements. Both France and the UK had to put in place crash programs to manufacture more ammunition and at times shells were carefully rationed. Ukraine has that problem with it's Soviet era weapons and it probably can't be solved. For the NATO standard weapons, they have to rely on "us" to give them enough shells. It seems clear we have not. If we had, the Ukrainian infantry wouldn't be complaining like Landsers that they do not have any artillery support. There should always be "outgoing". There needs to be H & I fire. NATO also never planned for a slow motion war. The US doesn't heavily rely on artillery, so we don't make or stockpile a lot of shells . We rely on our Air Force. I certainly hope that the administration is preparing to contract for adequate ammunition. We may have adequate stocks for a while, but we certainly haven't been overly generous with them. While in no way is this war exactly WW I redux, consider that at Verdun the Germans fired one million shells in a DAY.

The second problem is that Russia has weapons available in quantity that out-range the Ukrainian systems. The IskanderM is an example. That has been a continuing problem. The good news is that FINALLY the US is going to supply MLRS systems. While we are not supplying the longer range ATACMS missiles (yet), it is a big step up for Ukraine. They have been asking for months. The question is, how many systems and how many rockets? Ten or twenty MLRS won't help much. We have also supplied Paladins in unspecified numbers. It was clear from the first that the M777s, while useful, were not enough. There was a range gap and a quantity gap. The Paladins mobility and protection allow them to operate nearer the FEBA which increases their effectiveness relative to the M777. Our military is capable of analyzing what can be accomplished with various weapons options. I hope we are supplying the quantities that are needed, not the quantities that are convenient.

I also must say once again that we should determine what our political limits are and go right up to them right now, not wait until Ukraine has shown it can't win without the "next big thing". I can't imagine why giving them ATACMS is politically more risky than what we are doing, yet we are not doing so. Ukraine right now has very limited "deep strike" capabilities. We should force the Russians to worry about such strikes just as the Ukrainians currently must. We know the Russian's have logistics issues. They have been moving slowly mostly because they need to bring forward their supply dumps (for all the artillery shells they use among other things). If their supply dumps suddenly need to be much further from the front, then what?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-01-2022

Ukraine is about to get some more advanced US gear. These drones are a good step up from the Bayraktars in range, endurance, and firepower.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-plans-sell-armed-drones-ukraine-coming-days-sources-2022-06-01/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2022

I have found articles saying the US is sending a grand total of FOUR HIMARS systems to Ukraine. Four. If that is all we are sending, it's nuts IMHO. Would Russia be twice as mad if we sent eight? What are the Ukrainian's supposed to do, drive them around the country as needed? Send them enough to matter. Practically speaking, four doesn't. Yes, they are long range but they have to move right after firing to prevent being targeted. They then have to reach a reload point, reload, move to a new firing position and fire again. During that time, they are not available to strike targets. Four. For reference, a HIMARS battery contains six launchers, their associated resupply vehicles and trailers. We aren't even sending a full battery. FWIW, the HIMARS also carries half the number of missiles an MLRS carries.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-01-2022

I wouldn't be too concerned with the initial number. UK is also planning to send MLRS. Truth is Ukraine probably can't spare a ton of people to train on the equipment since they are needed at the front, so I suspect the first 4 are what they have staged for training and will send more soon.

Just like with the Switchblade drones, which went from 100 procured to 700 procured in a matter of like a week.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-01-2022

(06-01-2022, 04:28 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I wouldn't be too concerned with the initial number. UK is also planning to send MLRS. Truth is Ukraine probably can't spare a ton of people to train on the equipment since they are needed at the front, so I suspect the first 4 are what they have staged for training and will send more soon.

Just like with the Switchblade drones, which went from 100 procured to 700 procured in a matter of like a week.

You certainly could be correct. I hope you are. I fear you are not, as the delay in sending these units has been inexplicable to me. They are "just a modern Grad". Initially I was hoping that they were not releasing the numbers for security reasons. I guess that is out the window.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 06-01-2022

(06-01-2022, 04:34 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(06-01-2022, 04:28 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I wouldn't be too concerned with the initial number. UK is also planning to send MLRS. Truth is Ukraine probably can't spare a ton of people to train on the equipment since they are needed at the front, so I suspect the first 4 are what they have staged for training and will send more soon.

Just like with the Switchblade drones, which went from 100 procured to 700 procured in a matter of like a week.

You certainly could be correct. I hope you are. I fear you are not, as the delay in sending these units has been inexplicable to me. They are "just a modern Grad". Initially I was hoping that they were not releasing the numbers for security reasons. I guess that is out the window.

I get the feeling of his will be similar to the M777’s where we sent 18 while they trained, then once training was done we gave them 90. I’m guessing once the three week crash course is fine, we will send a lot more, and hopefully also other western nations will join. I believe the Uk and Germany will send some different systems. I believe Norway has 12 in storage, wouldn’t be surprised if those make their way to Ukraine. I think they will likely need 40+. Poland I think ordered a large number of them as well, given how generous they’ve been, maybe they will also donate some. Speaking of Poland, they just committed to upgrading their air fleet, I wonder if a bunch of MiG 29 spare parts will magically make their way to Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-01-2022

Funny, a lot of Russian soldiers don’t want to fight, and because it’s not a war, Russia can’t really make them (at least not legally; I’m sure that there are plenty of Chechans and Wagnerians who can be pretty persuasive).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/documents-reveal-hundreds-of-russian-troops-broke-ranks-over-ukraine-orders-11654094212

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 06-01-2022

Some more new toys…

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-plans-sell-armed-drones-ukraine-coming-days-sources-2022-06-01/

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-02-2022

(06-01-2022, 09:11 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I get the feeling of his will be similar to the M777’s where we sent 18 while they trained, then once training was done we gave them 90. I’m guessing once the three week crash course is fine, we will send a lot more, and hopefully also other western nations will join. I believe the Uk and Germany will send some different systems. I believe Norway has 12 in storage, wouldn’t be surprised if those make their way to Ukraine. I think they will likely need 40+. Poland I think ordered a large number of them as well, given how generous they’ve been, maybe they will also donate some. Speaking of Poland, they just committed to upgrading their air fleet, I wonder if a bunch of MiG 29 spare parts will magically make their way to Ukraine.

Poland did order a large number of HIMARS systems (500) but they have not yet been delivered (as I understand it). Poland does have 20 or so already. The Norwegian MLRS systems are "hardly used" and would be good candidates. In any case, the US has plenty of these systems, so obtaining units was never an issue. The incremental approach makes sense, in that it ensures the training allows Ukraine to actually be effective. I also would agree that 40 units or so would be about the minimum that Ukraine needs to actually be effective in the Donbas. However, there will be battlefield losses and units down for maintenance. Ukraine is a large country, so distributing these units to prevent Russia from shelling other parts of the country (not Donbas) at will is desirable. The military axiom, "smack them, don't tap them" applies and says more would be better. Poland wanted 500. Ukraine rates at least 100 IMHO.

The problem with the incremental approach is that it takes time, and during that time lots of Ukrainians will die. It also gives Russia the opportunity to take more territory, which the Ukraine will have to buy back with blood. It also increases the risk that in the interim period naysayers in the EU and inside Ukraine itself will cause the West to lose interest in supporting Ukraine. There are already plenty of proposals out there (from Italy and France in particular) that there should be a cease-fire and Ukraine should just cede territory to Russia. Ukraine, understandably, wants no part of that, but if the EU loses interest the Ukrainians may have little choice.

It is absolutely inconceivable to me that the US has delayed so long in providing MLRS systems to Ukraine. They are actually much easier to operate than an artillery piece. They are more mobile. Their only limitation is that they cannot provide continuous fires for long periods of time, which guns can. Why these units weren't first, or at worst coincident with the M777 is hard to understand from a functional point of view. It had to be political. We must have decided the MLRS was going to anger Putin more than guns would. Apparently, Russian success on the battlefield has overcome these political reservations. If I were a Ukrainian, I would find this very hard to understand. Somehow the fact he is winning is going to make Putin OK with a weapon designed to prevent him from winning???????

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-02-2022

The people who needed to learn the M777 likely overlap significantly with those who need to learn HIMARS. Seems to me dumping a bunch of equipment at once in a country that is not familiar with operating or mantaining it all at once probably would not lead to good use of that equipment.

If you want to call it a mistake, then the mistake was not supplying this stuff years ago.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-02-2022

(06-02-2022, 07:45 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Seems to me dumping a bunch of equipment at once in a country that is not familiar with operating or mantaining it all at once probably would not lead to good use of that equipment.

You are undoubtedly correct there. Even storing it in Ukraine increases the probability Russia can find it and destroy it before it gets used. It is also true that announcing our intentions in advance may make people like me feel better but doesn't actually help until it becomes reality.

Quote:The people who needed to learn the M777 likely overlap significantly with those who need to learn HIMARS.

I don't think this is the case, although there are lots of variables. If linguistic ability is the issue, it might reduce the possible choices. By now, I would expect HIMARS and MLRS manuals are available in Ukrainian, as we have had months to do that. I would also expect instructors from both US and Polish sources that speak Ukrainian are available, but that could be an issue.
For the M777 I would expect the Ukrainians would have chosen trainers/gunners/13Bs who are very familiar with the existing  Ukrainian legacy 152 mm guns. This is especially true given the abbreviated time available for training them. OTOH, for the HIMARS I would expect trainers/13Ms who are Grad operators/trainers out of work because they are short of missiles. Totally different skill sets, and in all armies I am familiar with totally different personnel groups. The HIMARS is also simpler to learn than being a cannon crew member. In the US army 13M advanced training is 4 weeks while 13B is 7 weeks. The Ukrainians would also undoubtedly prefer these groups be disjoint simply to increase their own training capability.

Quote:If you want to call it a mistake, then the mistake was not supplying this stuff years ago.

It is probably correct that the US should have done more to help Ukraine after 2014. There are lots of reasons that didn't happen, but certainly in hindsight more should have been done. However, I still believe that the US should have moved to start the HIMARS transfer back in March. It was clear at the time Ukraine lacked a significant deep strike capability. Being further down that road would possibly have stopped the problem in the Donbas from escalating  as far as it has. I don't see what the two months delay accomplished.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-02-2022

Turkey in talks to act as a sort of mediator to allow for Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea. Would be involved in demining sea lanes and using their fleet as a sort of guarantor for neutral shipping. Sounds like it would be a ways off. They have played a very interesting role in this whole conflict.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/black-sea-grain-talks-gain-steam-as-russia-turkey-eye-cooperation-11654119652

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 06-03-2022

I know there are folks here who want to see Ukraine fight to retake every inch of territory Russia has taken so far.  This is more directed at those in the media whom I have heard advocating for a negotiation to trade territory for peace.  Just compare the amount of territory Russia has stolen from Ukraine (46,000 sq miles) to the amount of territory the Arabs are trying to take from Israel (2,400 sq miles).  If the Israelis are willing to fight for generations to retain that relatively small amount of territory, what makes us think Ukrainians will not fight just as hard for 19x the amount of land?  And why should they not?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-03-2022

(06-03-2022, 11:10 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I know there are folks here who want to see Ukraine fight to retake every inch of territory Russia has taken so far.  This is more directed at those in the media whom I have heard advocating for a negotiation to trade territory for peace.  Just compare the amount of territory Russia has stolen from Ukraine (46,000 sq miles) to the amount of territory the Arabs are trying to take from Israel (2,400 sq miles).  If the Israelis are willing to fight for generations to retain that relatively small amount of territory, what makes us think Ukrainians will not fight just as hard for 19x the amount of land?  And why should they not?

It isn't just the media unfortunately. It is also places like Italy and to a degree France. Most importantly, it is a choice that isn't actually on offer. When Russia took Crimea and the (relatively small) parts of Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast it was tacitly if not explicitly assumed by most of the West that that was the extent of what would happen. Yes, it sucked for Ukraine but that was just the way it was.

Russia paused, but did not stop. Given subsequent events there is no reason to expect Russia will accept the existence of a strong, viable Ukraine. Certainly Putin won't. A strong viable Ukraine can't exist under threat of invasion whenever Russia feels strong enough. It also can't exist without access to the Sea of Azov, the M14, and associated rail transport. For those reasons, Ukraine will continue to fight as long as they possibly can. Consider https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-won-t-return-occupied-083135993.html. It might have been possible for Ukraine to allow plebiscites in parts of the Donbas if these had been arranged instead of an invasion. They don't need every square inch and if some areas actually wanted out, that MIGHT have been fine. Under present circumstances, it certainly isn't.

The real danger is that after a long struggle Ukraine is forced by Western disinterest to cede territory for peace. It will be Munich all over again. The US and other interested parties need to work real hard on the diplomatic front to ensure that does not happen.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-03-2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-sending-ukraine-advanced-rocket-140118505.html discusses some of the factors involved in the HIMARS situation. It does address the issue of us overwhelming Ukraine with too much new technology too fast. It also addresses the additional utility this  equipment will provide and would have provided if available sooner. IMHO lots of the points made in this article are a mostly correct but belated analysis of the situation. FWIW, if Ukraine is telling the truth and both their own casualty figures and the Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties are correct, the Ukraine is losing about 2/3 as many troops as Russia is. Of course, Ukraine is also losing civilians, which in the main Russia is not.

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