Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-26-2022

Congrats dabgiv13 for posting the 1,000th post on this thread.

A search of the CardBoard for threads with 1,000 replies shows 5 threads.  (I believe the search is not finding everything, so I am not claiming there are only 5 more popular threads.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-26-2022

(05-26-2022, 03:57 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  [Tweet]https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1529939191378984988?s=20&t=VUai_604EKSYG_aCUM6UvQ[/tweet]

This will be very welcome for Ukraine, can outrange the Russian artillery, and Russia has not at all demonstrated the ability to establish air superiority like they would need to suppress these systems from the air.

MLRS have been a big talking point recently.  I'd imagine like the Howitzers we sent, they will require time to train, but I'm hoping that process already began before these rumors.  I have no idea what the timeframe would be, but maybe a bit longer than the howitzers?  There are also rumors that 14 SU-25's were donated to Ukraine, possibly disassembled and put back together?  It was listed as an Eastern European country, but I have to imagine that's likely Bulgaria. They were rumored to be donating them, along with the MiG 29's back on February 28th, and they have exactly 14 of the Su-25's. I'm starting to wonder if maybe these airframes have been slowly donated since early on in the war, but without announcement to avoid them being targeted, and spread out for the same reason, and without letting the Russians know it's happening.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-27-2022

According to this article, one week of training for the HIMARS.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-send-advanced-rocket-systems-to-kyiv-officials-say-11653675804

They can’t come soon enough; Russia is making legitimate military gains in the East.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-27-2022

Ukraine has gotten scary good with the artillery we have given them after a very short period of time. No better training than actual combat. I'm sure they will put HIMARS to good effect. Might be tougher to get good drone shots of those strikes though. Check below for some really incredible artillery sniping. The end of the first video here is insane. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1530259027506110466?s=20&t=PDpK9kosqJgztfwZk3HICQ[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1530250738437431298?s=20&t=PDpK9kosqJgztfwZk3HICQ
[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-27-2022

Incredible delivery of lethal munitions to near-maximum effect.  I hope the Ukrainian Army can stem the tide in the east.

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leftcoast - Leftcoast - 05-27-2022

Do you folks have any insight on just how bad this week was for Ukraine in the East?  

The coverage on this has been all over the place.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-27-2022

It looks like Severodonetsk and the remaining sliver of Luhansk not under Russian/separatist control is slowly being taken by the Russians. Ukraine has blown some bridges and retreated from some of the front areas there. Whether Russia can then quickly reduce Severodonetsk and push further west seems to be the question.

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leftcoast - Leftcoast - 05-27-2022

It appears when lines solidify, logistics are less complex, and the Russian army can bring their massed artillery to bear Ukraine’s advantages diminish.  That’s depressing but not surprising. 

I wonder if Ukraine is considering the Scipio Africanus solution to Hannibal’s invasion?  Attack the homeland and create an outcry to bring the army home? When the norms favor your adversary it’s time to disrupt the playing field.

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RE: leftcoast - Treefence - 05-27-2022

(05-27-2022, 12:59 PM)Leftcoast Wrote:  Do you folks have any insight on just how bad this week was for Ukraine in the East?  

The coverage on this has been all over the place.

I think Popasna falling was tough, because that city had a lot of high ground, and Russians have been using that recently, but are slowing in their advance, besides the south.  I expect everything to the east of Siverski Donets river, including Severdonestk to fall in the coming days.  As far as how bad it is, hard to tell, but sadly I think a lot of Ukrainians are being killed.  I also think they are causing hell for the Russians, inflicting as many, if not more, casualties.  Severdonetsk will be a very difficult urban campaign for Russia, something don't specialize in.  

Overall, I think the two areas of hope for Ukraine are the Kharkiv region, and Kherson region.  Reports are Ukrainians made a break through North East of Kherson, still waiting for real confirmation, but possibly the town of Davydov Brod. The Kherson front has been relatively quiet recently, but the Ukrainian 5th tank brigade was recently mobilized, mostly due to the recent donation of tanks from Poland.  They weren't a fully formed brigade before, and were based in Odessa.  

As I've said before I think in the short term, Russians will make some marginal gains, but we should hit a point soon where they have reach unsustainable losses, and they don't have a coalition of nations helping them.  Ukrainians are fully mobilized, and should start seeing the fruits of that more and more, as reserves have been fully trained.

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RE: leftcoast - TrumpCard - 05-27-2022

(05-27-2022, 12:59 PM)Leftcoast Wrote:  Do you folks have any insight on just how bad this week was for Ukraine in the East?  

The coverage on this has been all over the place.

The responses you got here were at least as all-over-the-place as the media has been.  I'd venture to say no one on this board knows.  The few people in the world who do know either ain't talking or have reason to give b.s. answers or both.  And some insiders who think they know probably don't.  Look how our military and political establishment reported progress in Afghanistan.  And we're a more open society than either Ukraine or Russia.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-27-2022

It does appear clear that Russia is making progress in the Donbas.  I don’t think any of us are knowledgeable enough to know how strategically significant those gains are, but there are enough credible sources saying that they are happening (NPR, the Economist).

The endgame in Ukraine from The Economist Espresso: http://espresso.economist.com/16bcb1458994f17736ac66080008294d

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-27-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1530354603748823040?s=21&t=D4JI0RhtD-GaLV7S1IvaYQ[/tweet]

I thought that was a well-written and well-considered assessment of the situation in the Donbas.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-28-2022

So maybe this thread is not so OT after all.  Zelensky gives a speech to Stanford:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3494025-president-zelensky-to-stanford-university-community-ukrainians-and-americans-equally-understand-the-word-freedom.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=%5Btwitter%5D&utm_campaign=%5Brogue_corq%5D

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-28-2022

Looks like Ukraine is launching a counter-offensive around Kherson.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1530710545220792320?s=21&t=CwaPwmWWCss7tkvrI_usmA[/tweet]

Makes some sense, as that is where the Russians are most over-extended, and it would be a big deal to recapture the first city (and for a while the only one) to fall to the Russians.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-29-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1530885263660048384?s=21&t=4nOeRxgt0hS11cxIHj5oPw[/tweet]

Yeah, ISW is putting a pro-Ukraine spin on it, but still, Severodonetsk had a population of 100,000 pre-war.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-29-2022

Lysychansk had another 100k and Rubiznhe another 50k. It’s one metro area, some already gone and the rest seems likely to fall. Biggest loss of the earth after Mariupol and Kherson.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-29-2022

The bigger issue is that if the Russians can get to Lysychansk, it means they will have crossed the Donets river. Then again, we know the Russians have had trouble with rivers before. I expect Ukrainians will destroy the bridges on the way out of Severodonetsk.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-30-2022

Good thread on MLRS/HIMARS and what their range can allow.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1531067778182029312?s=20&t=SwSLb6Oji7CBEJ7aji4IYA[/tweet]

Seems like Biden has ruled out providing the long range ATACMS missiles which can go 190+ miles, so the 43+ miles M31 rockets will be Ukraine's farthest range fires, apart from the likely depleted stocks of Tochka SRBMs.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-30-2022

The theory here that aircraft “parts” are really just disassembled aircraft gains credibility:

https://www.twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1531026238344675330?cxt=HHwWhICy5ZCQpr8qAAAA

[tweet]https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1531026238344675330?cxt=HHwWhICy5ZCQpr8qAAAA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-30-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1531026238344675330?s=21&t=gGuO95vvdvaRM_78opQ3mw[/tweet]

I couldn’t fix the embedding of your tweet, so I am reposting.

BC

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