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RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 09-04-2023
Do any of y'll agree with this guy?
https://www.dailyrepublic.com/sports/professional/49ers/49ers-nick-bosa-contract-stalemate-an-embarrassment/article_e2a719aa-4851-11ee-9e84-43b2da26b2ec.html
I don't think this kind of commentary educated anyone. It's lazy and stupid, IMO.
A more accurate assessment would be this...
- An NFL player earns a credited season toward free agency if they are on a roster, IR, or PUP for at least 6 games.
- Nick Bosa will become an unrestricted free agent if he does not sign an extension and meets the above criteria.
It can probably be assumed that Bosa will want to test free agency, so will want to report to the team. Then the question becomes, do the Niners have an obligation to put him on the roster if he reports, or can they hold him out, like a lockout, to prevent him from earning his 5th year of service and his free agency?
I'm not suggesting Bosa's situation will go so far off the rails, I just want to know if a team can prevent a player from earning his service needed to get free agency if they are upset he withheld his service (especially if the season goes off bad in his absence) when he was under contract to play the season.
One thing is for sure. Nick Bosa is no Aaron Judge, a guy who bet on himself and got a much bigger payout than the extension he was offered and turned down, because he played out a season to hit the open market.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-04-2023
I'm not a fan of Dieter Kurtenbach. I think most of his writing is ill-informed, and similar to the guy-on-the-next-barstool opinions. Not as bad as the son of the former Chronicle writer whose name I will not dignify. I think of them as Skip Bayless-lite and Skip Bayless-very-lite.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - CompSci87 - 09-04-2023
Agreed. I really don't care for hot take artists.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 09-04-2023
I’m seeing it reported that KC DT Chris Jones has a 2-yr fully guaranteed extension for $56M on the table. He wants 2-yr deal for $64M. KC plays Thursday.
Carolina DE Brian Burns has not reported to practice the last two days as he seeks a new deal, with sides reportedly far apart.
Nick Bosa is probably on par with Jones, and Burns not quite at their level.
I’m going to guess Bosa wants more than Jones, certainly more than 2 yrs, and probably 5 or 6. Then the question is guaranteed money. NFL owners are loathe to have guaranteed contracts, but that’s what is slowly happening whether they like it or not.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-06-2023
Nick Bosa, signed and in the door. Five years, $170 million, $122.5 million guaranteed. Should be playing in the Pitt game.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/49ers/2023/09/06/nick-bosa-contract-san-francisco-niners-highest-paid-defender/70776408007/
RE: 2023 Niners thread - cardcrimson - 09-06-2023
5 years, $170 million. Wow.
(09-06-2023, 04:28 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: 5 years, $170 million. Wow.Mick beat me by milliseconds. . . .
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 09-07-2023
The most intriguing news is the the Niners restructured George Kittle and Trent Williams contracts to create $24M in 2023 cap space, now the 2nd most of any team not named Cleveland Browns.
What are they planning to do with this space? Some are speculating it is making room for Brandon Aiyuk extension. Some are thinking making room for a trade for a disgruntled star or close to star on another team, like maybe DE Brian Burns of Carolina Panthers.
I would think the objective would be a trade for another star this season, perhaps a rental type player. Someone in the final year of their contract that won't count against the 2024 cap.
It's the most fascinating roster in the NFL, with super stars everywhere (team with most NFL Top 100 players this year and not counting Javon Hargrave), and a QB making $800k putting up Top 10 QB numbers. Now they have at least $24M and 12 2024 draft picks to spend, including 1 and 2.
I like Aiyuk, but I wouldn't be giving him an extension now because he is under contract this year and his option year is next year. All focus has to be on 2023, and that means using this and possibly more created cap space to make a trade for a big talent before Oct. 31 trade deadline.
The Niners have draft capital and cap space to spend. And like the last two years, they likely can't afford 1st or even 2nd rd picks with current roster. I thought maybe Niners might be thinking of shoring up the RT spot and have someone in mind there, but the next two years of Free Agent RTs makes clear the pickings are exceptionally slim and don't cost much. Typically teams making Super Bowl runs load up on pass rushers, and after watching the Eagles last year, I think this is where the Niners will focus. Here are three possible difference making DEs available that the Niners can now afford in a trade:
- Chase Young, Washington Commanders. He was NFL DROY in 2020, suffered an ACL tear in 2021, and didn't play much in 2022. His fifth year option was declined and he will be a free agent after this season. He can probably be had for a 2nd rd pick right now. Trading for Young now - before the season starts, and he demonstrates he might be back to form - would be a relatively low risk, high possible reward, and kind of shockingly cheap. The Commanders also only have $2M in cap space, so unloading Young's contract would help them right now.
- Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers. Same draft class as Bosa, had 12.5 sacks last year, has missed two starts over last three seasons, and wants an extension. He's in a similar situation as Bosa was, meaning the Panthers can't franchise tag him and he will be a UFA after this season if he doesn't sign an extension. Niners could trade for him, do an extension they can't afford, and then trade him in the offseason. There will be no shortage of suitors.
- Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings. He's three years older than Burns and Young, and in last year of a deal that prohibits him from being franchised tagged. His best sack years have been at DE, but he's now playing OLB. I'd bet he'd love to go back to DE and pump up his sack numbers for his free agent year without a franchise tag.
All three of them could be rental DEs the Niners can absolutely afford right now, and one could possibly be signed and turned into a trade chip that would likely net at least a 1st rd pick.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - lex24 - 09-07-2023
(09-06-2023, 04:28 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: 5 years, $170 million. Wow.
(09-06-2023, 04:28 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: 5 years, $170 million. Wow.Mick beat me by milliseconds. . . .
And reportedly $122,000,000 guaranteed.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - cardcrimson - 09-07-2023
(09-07-2023, 06:15 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Niners have draft capital and cap space to spend. And like the last two years, they likely can't afford 1st or even 2nd rd picks with current roster.
They have cap space but can't afford a 1st or 2nd round pick. Huh?
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 09-10-2023
Now the Niners have the most cap space in the NFL, with nearly $45M to spend after restructuring Arik Armstead.
If the Niners don't spend any of it this year, contrary to what most observers were thinking, they would have no real cap issues in 2024, as they are nearly $5M under the projected cap, when just a few weeks ago they were $40M over. They can release guys, restructure deals, and make trades to reduce cap liabilities too.
So 12 2024 draft picks and $45M available to put all chips on the table this season. Brian Burns is reportedly set to play today, but that doesn't mean he won't be available in a trade. Ditto Chase Young, Danielle Hunter and other guys who might be available difference makers as the trade season nears.
Great position to be in. Now, as Nick Bosa says in his understated tone, "let's go get some wins."
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-10-2023
I worry about this first game, maybe a perfect storm:
* Starting at 10 a.m. body clock time, with long flight.
* Purdy coming off of major injury maybe not being quite as sharp.
* Steelers are 8-2 ATS when they are home underdogs
* Jake Moody had a really rough preseason, and is kicking on a field that has been very difficult for kickers.
* Their toughest rusher (2nd best in NFL, IMO) is going up against Colton McKivitz. I worry about the 49ers line in general, tbh.
* George Kittle, groin injury. Those tend to be nagging.
* Nick Bosa, very little practice. I think he'll be right as rain for the second game...just not sure about this one.
* Charvarius Ward, nagging injury
* Mike Tomlin is 26-9-1 ATS as underdogs.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-10-2023
(09-10-2023, 10:00 AM)Mick Wrote: I worry about this first game, maybe a perfect storm:
* Starting at 10 a.m. body clock time, with long flight.
* Purdy coming off of major injury maybe not being quite as sharp.
* Steelers are 8-2 ATS when they are home underdogs
* Jake Moody had a really rough preseason, and is kicking on a field that has been very difficult for kickers.
* Their toughest rusher (2nd best in NFL, IMO) is going up against Colton McKivitz. I worry about the 49ers line in general, tbh.
* George Kittle, groin injury. Those tend to be nagging.
* Nick Bosa, very little practice. I think he'll be right as rain for the second game...just not sure about this one.
* Charvarius Ward, nagging injury
* Mike Tomlin is 26-9-1 ATS as underdogs.
Never mind...
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Austroturf - 09-10-2023
Niners look lethal. They should pull CMac and Purdy to keep them healthy. Up 27-7 in the 4th.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 09-10-2023
…Drake Jackson - three sacks. The DL played well even with Bosa not at full on-field form.
…McKivitz struggled to contain Watt (a problem experienced by most RT’s in the league). Otherwise, the OL played well.
…No significant injuries.
On to Los Angeles………
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 09-10-2023
I asked a buddy of mine before the game today why the line was only Niners -2 and he told me why people think the Steelers might win:
- Brock Purdy regressing to the mean (absurd and more on that below)
- Niners OL questionable (I'm sure there would be struggle, but not worried)
- Kenny Pickett having great pre-season (yes, that was pre-season though)
- Steelers are back! (whatever)
I told him I don't buy it. One very bad 2 minutes and dominated the other 58. The Niners simply have more better players than almost every team they will play. They are kind of the opposite of the S.F. Giants that way.
Just comical how so many "experts" doubt Purdy. Little known fact:
Purdy's Passer rating was 108 in 2022 in 10 starts between regular season and playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 105.5 and Mahomes was #2 at 105.2. Just because he didn't qualify for the passing title, doesn't mean he is a question mark. Nobody does that unless they are legit good players. Purdy was 111.3 today.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-10-2023
(09-10-2023, 03:05 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I asked a buddy of mine before the game today why the line was only Niners -2 and he told me why people think the Steelers might win:
- Brock Purdy regressing to the mean (absurd and more on that below)
- Niners OL questionable (I'm sure there would be struggle, but not worried)
- Kenny Pickett having great pre-season (yes, that was pre-season though)
- Steelers are back! (whatever)
I told him I don't buy it. One very bad 2 minutes and dominated the other 58. The Niners simply have more better players than almost every team they will play. They are kind of the opposite of the S.F. Giants that way.
Just comical how so many "experts" doubt Purdy. Little known fact:
Purdy's Passer rating was 108 in 2022 in 10 starts between regular season and playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 105.5 and Mahomes was #2 at 105.2. Just because he didn't qualify for the passing title, doesn't mean he is a question mark. Nobody does that unless they are legit good players. Purdy was 111.3 today.
To your points:
1) The line had actually shrunk to Niners favored -1 at kickoff.
2) Agreed, Purdy had the highest rating in the NFL last year for all quarterbacks with at least 100 passes.
3) That said, I looked at five different pre-season rankings of the 32 starting quarterbacks. The best had Purdy at #15, the worst at #26. Most were between #20 and #23. This was chiefly because all the pundits agreed that he had good stats because of the talent around him, not that he was intrinsically a better quarterback. I don't remember reporters making that argument when Montana and Young had Rice, Clark, Craig, Solomon, Jones, Taylor, Owens, Watters et al, but there you go.
4) Currently, Purdy's game passer rating is 111.3, just .5 behind Desmond Ridder at 111.8. There are 20 QBs listed.
https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/passing/2023/REG/all/passingpasserrating/DESC
5) McCaffrey is leading the NFL in rushing by a wide margin. #2 rusher at this writing is Nick Chubb with 106 and #3 is Travis Etienne at 77. 25 RBs are listed:
https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/rushing/2023/reg/all/rushingyards/desc
6) Brandon Aiyuk is second in the NFL in receiving.
https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/receiving/2023/REG/all/receivingyards/DESC
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 09-11-2023
Watching various vids last night, everyone is like "Purdy isn't special, but he does what needs to be done." Or, "he isn't athletically gifted, but he makes the plays that must be made." Or, my favorite, "he's a game manager."
It's all backhanded compliments not giving him credit for his ability to play the position the way it is suppose to be played. I saw Jalen Hurts play yesterday. Purdy was better. He was also better than Dan Prescott. Brock Purdy has never lost an NFL game in which he played more than a quarter. That is now 9 games. and his rating is over 110 over those games, which is the highest in the NFL over that span. What's the O/U on games Purdy has to play well in before people stop questioning him?
Tom Brady wasn't some magnificent athlete, but we never heard these qualifiers about him. Purdy's a better athlete than people given him credit for too. Why can't people just judge him on his performance? Why the visceral need to take away from his accomplishments and continue questioning him? I just don't get it.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-11-2023
Purdy is:
* Extremely mobile in the pocket while always keeping his eyes down the field
* Unbothered by pressure (at the time of the interview with Greg Cosell, linked below, Purdy had completed 27 passes against 5 man rushes, 18 for first downs)
* Able to deliver short to medium passes with precision. He throws a very catchable ball.
* Can air it out with accuracy when required.
* Great timing
* Processes well
* Makes good decisions
* Incredible composure
* Executes at a really high level
Remind you of anyone, perhaps a former 49er? Here's Greg Cosell quoting a former NFL head coach. If you care to listen to the podcast, it's at the 15:40 mark:
https://www.knbr.com/2023/01/12/greg-cosell-former-nfl-coach-says-brock-purdy-reminds-him-of-joe-montana/
Joe Montana sees some similarities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BEotDWbkvw
RE: 2023 Niners thread - lex24 - 09-12-2023
(09-11-2023, 06:35 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Watching various vids last night, everyone is like "Purdy isn't special, but he does what needs to be done." Or, "he isn't athletically gifted, but he makes the plays that must be made." Or, my favorite, "he's a game manager."
It's all backhanded compliments not giving him credit for his ability to play the position the way it is suppose to be played. I saw Jalen Hurts play yesterday. Purdy was better. He was also better than Dan Prescott. Brock Purdy has never lost an NFL game in which he played more than a quarter. That is now 9 games. and his rating is over 110 over those games, which is the highest in the NFL over that span. What's the O/U on games Purdy has to play well in before people stop questioning him?
Tom Brady wasn't some magnificent athlete, but we never heard these qualifiers about him. Purdy's a better athlete than people given him credit for too. Why can't people just judge him on his performance? Why the visceral need to take away from his accomplishments and continue questioning him? I just don't get it.
I get the skepticism.
1. His measurables are modest
2. He was a low draft pick
3. The Niners are loaded at skill positions. Which is a tremendous luxury (and rarity) for a rookie or quasi- rookie QB.
As for the “game manager” I don’t take that as an insult. Managing Shanahans complex offense is Job 1. It’s a key reason Lance is gone, he couldn’t do it. Purdy has the ability to make plays when things break down. Which is nice. But secondary. First is managing the offense getting the ball to his playmakers. Purdy has done that very well.
If Purdy continues to play as he did week 1 and stays healthy the “ haters” will go away. Personally, I suspect he will.
(09-11-2023, 07:11 AM)Mick Wrote: Purdy is:
* Extremely mobile in the pocket while always keeping his eyes down the field
* Unbothered by pressure (at the time of the interview with Greg Cosell, linked below, Purdy had completed 27 passes against 5 man rushes, 18 for first downs)
* Able to deliver short to medium passes with precision. He throws a very catchable ball.
* Can air it out with accuracy when required.
* Great timing
* Processes well
* Makes good decisions
* Incredible composure
* Executes at a really high level
Remind you of anyone, perhaps a former 49er? Here's Greg Cosell quoting a former NFL head coach. If you care to listen to the podcast, it's at the 15:40 mark:
https://www.knbr.com/2023/01/12/greg-cosell-former-nfl-coach-says-brock-purdy-reminds-him-of-joe-montana/
Joe Montana sees some similarities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BEotDWbkvw
Actually, Joe didn’t say that. He said he doesn’t like to compare guys to other QBs and then listed Purdys attributes.
Joe was a much better athlete than Purdy.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 09-12-2023
(09-12-2023, 08:03 AM)lex24 Wrote:(09-11-2023, 06:35 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Watching various vids last night, everyone is like "Purdy isn't special, but he does what needs to be done." Or, "he isn't athletically gifted, but he makes the plays that must be made." Or, my favorite, "he's a game manager."
It's all backhanded compliments not giving him credit for his ability to play the position the way it is suppose to be played. I saw Jalen Hurts play yesterday. Purdy was better. He was also better than Dan Prescott. Brock Purdy has never lost an NFL game in which he played more than a quarter. That is now 9 games. and his rating is over 110 over those games, which is the highest in the NFL over that span. What's the O/U on games Purdy has to play well in before people stop questioning him?
Tom Brady wasn't some magnificent athlete, but we never heard these qualifiers about him. Purdy's a better athlete than people given him credit for too. Why can't people just judge him on his performance? Why the visceral need to take away from his accomplishments and continue questioning him? I just don't get it.
I get the skepticism.
1. His measurables are modest
2. He was a low draft pick
3. The Niners are loaded at skill positions. Which is a tremendous luxury (and rarity) for a rookie or quasi- rookie QB.
As for the “game manager” I don’t take that as an insult. Managing Shanahans complex offense is Job 1. It’s a key reason Lance is gone, he couldn’t do it. Purdy has the ability to make plays when things break down. Which is nice. But secondary. First is managing the offense getting the ball to his playmakers. Purdy has done that very well.
If Purdy continues to play as he did week 1 and stays healthy the “ haters” will go away. Personally, I suspect he will.
(09-11-2023, 07:11 AM)Mick Wrote: Purdy is:
* Extremely mobile in the pocket while always keeping his eyes down the field
* Unbothered by pressure (at the time of the interview with Greg Cosell, linked below, Purdy had completed 27 passes against 5 man rushes, 18 for first downs)
* Able to deliver short to medium passes with precision. He throws a very catchable ball.
* Can air it out with accuracy when required.
* Great timing
* Processes well
* Makes good decisions
* Incredible composure
* Executes at a really high level
Remind you of anyone, perhaps a former 49er? Here's Greg Cosell quoting a former NFL head coach. If you care to listen to the podcast, it's at the 15:40 mark:
https://www.knbr.com/2023/01/12/greg-cosell-former-nfl-coach-says-brock-purdy-reminds-him-of-joe-montana/
Joe Montana sees some similarities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BEotDWbkvw
Actually, Joe didn’t say that. He said he doesn’t like to compare guys to other QBs and then listed Purdys attributes.
Joe was a much better athlete than Purdy.
Right, I don't think I listed "athleticism" or "former high school basketball recruit" as Purdy's attributes. I listed those that he had in common with Montana, which Montana listed; e.g., quick processing speed, gets the ball out of his hands quickly, makes good decisions, and throws accurately.