Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Genuine Realist - 03-13-2022

(03-11-2022, 12:55 PM)martyup Wrote:  

(03-11-2022, 12:32 PM)JohnR34231 Wrote:  

(03-10-2022, 09:46 PM)81alum Wrote:  

(03-10-2022, 12:32 PM)martyup Wrote:  Truman acted decisively and, arguably, saved millions of lives. 

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/what-if-hitler-had-been-assassinated-in-1938/

It is arguable.  Truman certainly saved millions of lives compared with a land invasion of Japan, which was the only real alternative he considered. 

Bart Bernstein's Hist 252 course has long raised other possibilities which we could discuss here, but which would be off topic in an already off topic thread.  Suffice it to say that Curtis LeMay himself, architect of the bombing campaign against Japan, stated “The war would have been over in two weeks without the Russians entering and without the atomic bomb,” Eisenhower regretted the decision to use the bomb, and Chester Nimitz stated “The Japanese had, in fact, already sued for peace. … The atomic bomb played no decisive part, from a purely military standpoint, in the defeat of Japan.”  (Bernstein's argument is that the A-bomb was used more for diplomatic reasons--to prevent the USSR from contributing to the defeat of Japan and thus gaining greater influence in Asia.  The Cold War in this view began before the end of WWII.)

This review of a 1995 book by Alperovitz discusses the controversy and some of the evidence that came to light long after the war.
https://www.nytimes.com/1995/07/30/books/did-we-need-to-drop-it.html

Debating whether the A-bomb was necessary or useful for ending WWII became a cottage industry in the 1990s and there is a lot of interesting reading about it.  In the 1970s when I confronted my parents about Hiroshima, I was told that my father would have been in the invasion, he would likely have been killed, and I never would have been born.  That was a conversation-stopper.

My father-in-law would have also been in the invasion. My wife and I have never complained, either.

My point was less about Truman's decision to drop the bombs and more about FDR's failure to take out Hitler early when he had the chance.  With today's advanced technology, he should be vulnerable to assassination.   Is that justified at this point?  Who makes that call?  Biden? Israel? Nato?

 

That's a little unfair to FDR, since the US had no cachet at all in Europe at the time. Better blame Stanley Baldwin and a number of French premiers.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 03-13-2022

China's perspective.  Interesting.  

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

Mentions nuclear war a lot.  Advocates complete distancing from Russia, saying Russia will be isolated when they lose. Russia will be a pariah (even more so than they already are). Says U.S. will be big winners, will drive France, Germany and other NATO powers closer to U.S.  When Russia disengages, U. S. will drive closer relationships with NATO, QUAD, AUKUS and become much more powerful in the Pacific as Japan, Australia, Taiwan and Korea unite against China.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - yvonne - 03-13-2022

(03-13-2022, 05:40 PM)Mick Wrote:  China's perspective.  Interesting.  

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

Mentions nuclear war a lot.  Advocates complete distancing from Russia, saying Russia will be isolated when they lose. Russia will be a pariah (even more so than they already are). Says U.S. will be big winners, will drive France, Germany and other NATO powers closer to U.S.  When Russia disengages, U. S. will drive closer relationships with NATO, QUAD, AUKUS and become much more powerful in the Pacific as Japan, Australia, Taiwan and Korea unite against China.

"...completely solve the Ukrainian problem"

shudder

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Phogge - 03-13-2022

My father in law was on an escort carrier whose planes provided close air support during beach operations and some who flew CAP protecting the escort fleet. Their ship took a kamikaze off Okinawa. I'm sure he was glad that he wouldn't face any more of those birds off the main islands.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 03-13-2022

(03-13-2022, 05:40 PM)Mick Wrote:  China's perspective.  Interesting.  

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

Mentions nuclear war a lot.  Advocates complete distancing from Russia, saying Russia will be isolated when they lose. Russia will be a pariah (even more so than they already are). Says U.S. will be big winners, will drive France, Germany and other NATO powers closer to U.S.  When Russia disengages, U. S. will drive closer relationships with NATO, QUAD, AUKUS and become much more powerful in the Pacific as Japan, Australia, Taiwan and Korea unite against China.

Adding to that NATO point, I wonder if Sweden or Finland will join soon.  Due to this war, it's become a much more popular idea in those countries, and from my understanding they'd have just about instant approval, I believe 24 hours, but I could be wrong on that.  Overall, I do believe this will only make NATO stronger, with countries seeing new value, and possibly the need, in contributing 2% of GDP to defense spending.  There are so many other things that could happen, but I haven't heard a lot of speculation about Belarus.  It's obviously puppet state for Putin, but it seems clear their military is avoiding participating in the war.  I wonder if this might be the time for a revolution in that country, with Lukashenko being extremely unpopular, and likely lost the last election, had it not been rigged.  I would love to see everything Putin is doing backfire, with him losing breakaway regions in Ukraine and losing Crimea, Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Belarus becoming a democracy, Putin's army getting embarrassed, and relations with China regressing.  I doubt all of that happens, but you never know.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-13-2022

(03-13-2022, 07:55 PM)Treefence Wrote:  There are so many other things that could happen, but I haven't heard a lot of speculation about Belarus.  It's obviously puppet state for Putin, but it seems clear their military is avoiding participating in the war.  I wonder if this might be the time for a revolution in that country, with Lukashenko being extremely unpopular, and likely lost the last election, had it not been rigged.

Kind of hard to do when the Russian army is already in your country. Belarus is going to be "more closely united" with Russia real soon unless Putin actually fails in Ukraine. Lukashenko will remain as window dressing, but Belarus is probably toast. Lukashenko undoubtedly didn't want Russian troops in his country in the first place, but had no choice. The Russians don't want the military of Belarus doing anything. That way they won't be organized and prepared to resist even if asked to do so by Lukashenko (improbable).

I would like to recommend COLLAPSE by Vladislav Zubok as a reference to how the attitudes in Russia reached the point that something like this is possible. The book definitely has a slant, but the psychology of the Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia are definitely addressed in a useful way (IMHO).

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 03-13-2022

Russia is asking China for aid and military equipment. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-seeks-military-equipment-and-aid-from-china-us-officials-say/ar-AAV0LDf?ocid=uxbndlbing

I'm guessing that's going over as well with the White House as Ukraine's request for fighter jets is going over with the Kremlin.

I wonder how China feels having to face down two nuclear powers?  China has an estimated 350 warheads, the USSR and USA have 11,757 between them (according to good ol' reliable Wikipedia).

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BobK - 03-13-2022

Hoover Tower

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1503127690353823744?s=21[/tweet]

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 03-14-2022

(03-13-2022, 08:53 PM)BobK Wrote:  Hoover Tower

good on MTL.

also, a Moscow activist has chained himself to the doors of a McDonalds in protest of the restaurant's closing. kinda reminds me of the final chapter of The Stand.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4885416/russian-mcdonalds-fan-chains-protest/

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 12:22 AM)newguy Wrote:  also, a Moscow activist has chained himself to the doors of a McDonalds in protest of the restaurant's closing.  kinda reminds me of the final chapter of The Stand.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4885416/russian-mcdonalds-fan-chains-protest/

I read that 9% of McDonalds global sales, or about $600 million came from Russia.  It was no small thing to shut their doors there.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2022

On the chess board of this geopolitical re-set we are seeing play out...

Putin made some catastrophically bad assumptions. Everyone sees this with his Ukraine gambit, but none was worse than assuming China would have his back in Ukraine.  If you look at the "Risk" board entering 2022 as I like to put it, Russia & China were clear allies that formed a certain bulwark against NATO, Japan, and Australia. Any global conflict would basically pit those two sides against each other. India was probably also considered a western ally when push came to shove. Africa & South America are basically irrelevant, though the most powerful countries on those continents - Brazil and South Africa  - appear to lean Russia at this point.

Now, not only has China not approved of Russia's invasion, if China refuses Russia's request to help fight the war, China and Russia have effectively ended their partnership. Russia may offer China some of Ukraine's resources if it were to take the country, but China appears smart enough to understand any Chinese presence in Ukraine would put China at risk in the country, and also risk economic blowback from the west.

China has to face the possibility of Russia's communist government imploding and maybe even a new government aligning with NATO, leaving China as the world's only communist super power. Does China want to "go it alone" as a communist country more than it wants to risk the economic war and maybe even shooting war it would get into by backing Putin?  My guess is no. For as large as China's military is, it would be no match for NATO, Japan, Australia.

It was also always clear that everyone was going to have to ultimately pick a side.  Countries like China and India, that abstained from the UN vote condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, seemed to be wanting to play things out a bit before having to pick a side. But given nobody wants to be on the losing side, nobody is going to be all of a sudden backing Russia now. They are going to chose to align with the western democracies as Russia sinks.  So as much as China must make this choice, so too does India have to make it. India is poised to look terrible on the global stage if it doesn't turn against Russia before China does.

What a tangled web we - as a human species - have woven for ourselves.  Nothing proves the idiocy of dividing ourselves among ethnic and cultural lines than the fact when push comes to shove we all have the same ambitions and needs, and all value our lives the same.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 07:21 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  On the chess board of this geopolitical re-set we are seeing play out...Putin made some catastrophically bad assumptions. 

I don't see the author of this, but apparently China thinks it's coming out a winner by keeping to the sidelines.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/14/china-sees-at-least-one-winner-emerging-from-ukraine-war-china/

I don't agree with the author's conclusion.  You have the ideological potential partner -- Putin and Russia -- and the commercial partner/source of your wealth -- United States and the Western countries -- and both sides think you've screwed them over.  How does that make you the winner?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 07:49 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 07:21 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  On the chess board of this geopolitical re-set we are seeing play out...Putin made some catastrophically bad assumptions. 

I don't see the author of this, but apparently China thinks it's coming out a winner by keeping to the sidelines.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/14/china-sees-at-least-one-winner-emerging-from-ukraine-war-china/

I don't agree with the author's conclusion.  You have the ideological potential partner -- Putin and Russia -- and the commercial partner/source of your wealth -- United States and the Western countries -- and both sides think you've screwed them over.  How does that make you the winner?

It seems the simplistic calculus for China is:

Don't threaten and attack a sovereign country, or help another country doing the same, and you can oppress the people in your country while enriching yourself. Support those who overthrow western allies, and we will move away from you economically.

There is a lot of anti-China sentiment in the west, but if China stays out of our affairs and plays nice, and we stay out of theirs and play nice, we can co-exist economically because we need each other economically. That has never been the case with Russia.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - lex24 - 03-14-2022

Foreign policy board…..

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 03-14-2022

Oil spiked at $130.50/bbl on March 6.  It fell to a recent low of $99.76/bbl, losing 1/4th of its cost.

Brent crude dropped more than 7% to $104.35 per barrel, pulling back from the recent peak at nearly $140/bbl.

No doubt we will see that at the pump soon...

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 09:12 AM)Mick Wrote:  No doubt we will see that at the pump soon...

I kind of assume there was a [sarcasm] [/sarcasm] around that. Realistically, things are so volatile right now nobody is going to lower prices until they are convinced stability has returned. That won't be soon it appears. Let us suppose Ukraine and Russia reach a cease fire agreement of some kind. Does the EU then drop the sanctions? Does the US? I hope not, because if we do, Putin can claim a victory and prepare for his next adventure. However, that could happen I fear. So, even best case, things are going to remain volatile for a while.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 09:35 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 09:12 AM)Mick Wrote:  No doubt we will see that at the pump soon...

I kind of assume there was a [sarcasm] [/sarcasm] around that. Realistically, things are so volatile right now nobody is going to lower prices until they are convinced stability has returned. That won't be soon it appears. Let us suppose Ukraine and Russia reach a cease fire agreement of some kind. Does the EU then drop the sanctions? Does the US? I hope not, because if we do, Putin can claim a victory and prepare for his next adventure. However, that could happen I fear. So, even best case, things are going to remain volatile for a while.

Yes, it was sarcasm.  Somehow, the price of gas rises up with the price of a barrel of oil, but recedes at a much slower rate.

I say don't drop sanctions at all, buy as much as we can from Pemex and help Venezuela develop their oil resources...now that Maduro is conveniently embracing capitalism.

Maduro's Switch From Socialism Is Helping Bring Venezuelan Migrants Back - Bloomberg

---

(03-14-2022, 07:49 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 07:21 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  On the chess board of this geopolitical re-set we are seeing play out...Putin made some catastrophically bad assumptions. 

I don't see the author of this, but apparently China thinks it's coming out a winner by keeping to the sidelines.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/14/china-sees-at-least-one-winner-emerging-from-ukraine-war-china/

I don't agree with the author's conclusion.  You have the ideological potential partner -- Putin and Russia -- and the commercial partner/source of your wealth -- United States and the Western countries -- and both sides think you've screwed them over.  How does that make you the winner?

BTW, the Chinese stock market is getting crushed.  I don't see how they're coming out of this as a winner:

Chinese Stock Crash: U.S. Losses Top $1.1 Trillion As Beijing’s Russia Ties Spark Investor Concerns (msn.com)

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Sam Leopold - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 12:22 AM)newguy Wrote:  also, a Moscow activist has chained himself to the doors of a McDonalds in protest of the restaurant's closing.  kinda reminds me of the final chapter of The Stand.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4885416/russian-mcdonalds-fan-chains-protest/

Hold up a tablet in front of him, and show him Food, Inc.  Well before the end of the movie, he will be begging for the key......

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - martyup - 03-14-2022

(03-14-2022, 06:56 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(03-14-2022, 12:22 AM)newguy Wrote:  also, a Moscow activist has chained himself to the doors of a McDonalds in protest of the restaurant's closing.  kinda reminds me of the final chapter of The Stand.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4885416/russian-mcdonalds-fan-chains-protest/

I read that 9% of McDonalds global sales, or about $600 million came from Russia.  It was no small thing to shut their doors there.

That guy in the video looks like he contributed quite a bit to those Russian Big Mac sales.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - newguy - 03-14-2022

mick, i believe it.  mcdonalds is quite popular in russia.
sam, i remember that film from when it received an oscar nomination for best picture.
and marty.........i don't think you're goin out on a limb there.  he's gotta be pushing 300 pounds.

---