Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-17-2022

(05-17-2022, 03:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Remember the Azovstal!  A city that was supposed to fall in a matter of days (maybe weeks), held out for 80 days, diverting valuable Russian resources from elsewhere.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/status/1526312579144028161?s=21&t=icC6KfUSvWOrGkc4nr7n_Q[/tweet]

Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive.

BC

He can even make surrendering sound good.  I tip my hat to the troops who defended Mariupol for 80+ days, and I acknowledge we had no basis to expect a better result, but Ukraine's loss of Mariupol still is a bitter pill.

Edit: As I anticipated, the ISW daily summary treats the surrender as a victory, focusing on the bloodthirsty Russian bloggers who are upset the Russian army did not annihilate the remaining Ukrainian troops in the steel plant instead of accepting a negotiated surrender.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-17-2022

(05-17-2022, 03:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Remember the Azovstal!  A city that was supposed to fall in a matter of days (maybe weeks), held out for 80 days, diverting valuable Russian resources from elsewhere.

BC

Indeed their efforts did divert valuable Russian resources. They also kept the M14 unavailable to the Russians until May 12-13! It was unclear to me why Russia kept banging away against the troops in Azovstal. This was probably the reason, as otherwise just ignoring them would have made more sense. Putin even said he was going to do that, but they needed that road. I guess detours were too slow and/or too insecure.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-18-2022

A geopolitics view from the 30,000 foot level...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/17/us-russia-balance-of-power-ukraine/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-18-2022

Interesting article but I think it tries too hard to make every recent development seem positive. I would not characterize a deal to buy more oil from Venezuela as a show of American strength. It may well be necessary in these trying times, but the decision will finance an unfriendly authoritarian government in our backyard. Venezuela was always going to say yes to selling more oil, and we should view America’s decision to go along as an unfortunate though necessary consequence of the war in Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 05-18-2022

This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-18-2022

(05-18-2022, 08:25 AM)paloalto Wrote:  This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-18-2022

Finland and Sweden applied for membership.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-sweden-apply-for-nato-membership-breaking-decades-of-neutrality-11652854966

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-18-2022

(05-18-2022, 08:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(05-18-2022, 08:25 AM)paloalto Wrote:  This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

I don't think Putin is the issue. IF Turkey actually votes "NO" it will be from Erdogan's pure cussedness and domestic politics. For him, it is a big issue that Sweden and Finland sanctioned Turkey for going into Syria. Don't under-estimate this. It is a big issue for Erdogan personally and as a result an issue in domestic politics. The fact the PKK operates legally and openly is Sweden is a big issue as well. He expects to get his pound of flesh here, and treating him like "one of the usual extortionists" would undoubtedly piss him off even more. Let's hope that isn't what is happening, as he is serious about this and expect to be taken seriously.

All that said, I do not expect he will be left in a position where he has to vote no. This time however, pressure isn't going to work. It can become like the S-400 where pressure also failed. This sanctions issue is going to require a political solution that Turkey can call a victory.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-18-2022

And there you go.  Turkey wants the extradition of 30 "terrorists" from Finland and Sweden in exchange for NATO membership approval.  Of course, Turkey is also smarting from Sweden's arms sanctions... 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/finns-and-swedes-hope-turkey-will-clear-path-to-nato-bx39zmcg9
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/erdogan-urges-nato-allies-to-respect-concerns-on-finland-sweden

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-18-2022

(05-18-2022, 11:01 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  And there you go.  Turkey wants the extradition of 30 "terrorists" from Finland and Sweden in exchange for NATO membership approval.  Of course, Turkey is also smarting from Sweden's arms sanctions... 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/finns-and-swedes-hope-turkey-will-clear-path-to-nato-bx39zmcg9
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/erdogan-urges-nato-allies-to-respect-concerns-on-finland-sweden

That was quick :)

We'll probably never know the details of this pending "horse trading" to get Turkey's approval for Finland and Sweden into NATO, but it sure would be fascinating to see what gets worked out.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-18-2022

(05-18-2022, 11:01 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  And there you go.  Turkey wants the extradition of 30 "terrorists" from Finland and Sweden in exchange for NATO membership approval.  Of course, Turkey is also smarting from Sweden's arms sanctions... 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/finns-and-swedes-hope-turkey-will-clear-path-to-nato-bx39zmcg9
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/erdogan-urges-nato-allies-to-respect-concerns-on-finland-sweden

This is IMHO a very big ouch. Finland and Sweden aren't going to do it unless there is real evidence, which Turkey usually doesn't have. Not sure how NATO can get around this one. Hopefully there is a way, like agreeing to "bi-lateral talks" to resolve the extradition issues. At this point, I wouldn't assume this problem can be solved.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-18-2022

Interesting video of Ukrainian combat engineers blowing up a bridge at the frontlines between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, which seems to be the most active area of Russia's offensive in the Donbas at this time. Russia pushing to capture all of Luhansk.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1526944789874331652?s=20&t=1woq0khDuurXBge1Ek1i5g[/tweet]

Some Russian soldiers having a really bad day courtesy of Ukrainian artillery.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1526804250323390464?s=20&t=ZAwFZJtZXblK2jaf90GqPg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 05-18-2022

(05-18-2022, 08:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(05-18-2022, 08:25 AM)paloalto Wrote:  This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

There are two separate issues: 1:) Concessions from the West, and 2:) Putin.

The West will make concessions to influence Erdogan’s vote.  That’s a given.

Putin has a small window to derail Finland from joining NATO.  The one realistic option is to do whatever he can to influence Erdogan.  Putin is not in a position to bargain about anything right now but he’s backed up against a wall and unpredictable.  I don’t think NATO will have as easy a time of swaying Erdogan as you portray. 

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-18-2022

I bet Erdogan is regretting the S400 move at this moment. Hope they have a lot of missiles stored up ( or their domestic arms industry can reverse engineer and produce them well).

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This is a really great article about the hospital staff on and near the frontlines of the current fighting. Gut punch at the end.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-doctors.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-18-2022

(05-18-2022, 03:00 PM)paloalto Wrote:  

(05-18-2022, 08:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(05-18-2022, 08:25 AM)paloalto Wrote:  This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

There are two separate issues: 1:) Concessions from the West, and 2:) Putin.

The West will make concessions to influence Erdogan’s vote.  That’s a given.

Putin has a small window to derail Finland from joining NATO.  The one realistic option is to do whatever he can to influence Erdogan.  Putin is not in a position to bargain about anything right now but he’s backed up against a wall and unpredictable.  I don’t think NATO will have as easy a time of swaying Erdogan as you portray. 

As I have said before, I don't think Putin is the issue. The issue is Erdogan himself. He is upset with Sweden and Finland not approving his "invasion" of Syria and sanctioning his country. That is a big deal for him, and is probably governing. He is going to require "satisfaction" for this "insult". If he doesn't get it, I fear he will indeed vote no.

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(05-18-2022, 03:26 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I bet Erdogan is regretting the S400 move at this moment. Hope they have a lot of missiles stored up ( or their domestic arms industry can reverse engineer and produce them well).

He think he regretted it long before this war started. However, he felt the US had disrespected him by attempting to control what he bought or didn't buy. The US actually has a bit of a history with Turkey in this regard. He simply wasn't going to be dictated to, even if he had decided the S-400 maybe wasn't such a good idea. That is the danger we face now with the new NATO entrants, Erdogan's ego and his domestic political agenda.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-19-2022

We are seeing quite a few press discussions of means to lift the Russian blockade of Ukraine ports. Here is an article alluding to what the Ukrainians are asking for. https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-aims-arm-ukraine-163046651.html. I think the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) fired from ground launchers is indeed a good way to ensure Russia makes no attempt at amphibious landings on the coast of the Ukraine. It would also be a good way to ensure Russian surface ships have to launch their cruise missiles fom "standoff" range, but they can do this easily. These missiles will do nothing to deter Russian submarines from continuing to mine Ukrainian ports (Odesa) or sink commercial shipping in Ukrainian waters with missiles/torpedos. It is unclear to me why the press thinks this is an enabler to opening said ports.

I do support providing the NSM and also the MLRS/HIMARS to the Ukrainian forces. They need to free up all the troops they can to fight on active combat fronts, not to sit and wait for an invasion by sea. They also need a way to reach Russian artillery / MLRS that are beyond convenient range of their conventional artillery. Firing M777s at maximum range targets only works if they are already positioned to do so. HIMARS can hit things that are further away and targets of opportunity even when not "optimally" located.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-19-2022

Was about to post the same article. I agree NSM or Harpoon probably just keeps Russia surface vessels away from the Ukrainian coast, which it seems Ukraine has already accomplished with their Neptune sinking.

But it's a good thing that this is being pushed and I think we have seen a gradual transition to higher tech and better weapons as the war has gone on. I'm hopeful that NSM and HIMARS will eventually get to Ukraine, in addition to better SAMs. If a result of this conflict is that Ukraine gets fully stocked with good defensive military tech, that should make Ukraine too spikey of a meal to swallow, and will probably be crucial to a sustained peace. That will be more important than any sort of 3rd party guarantees of protection (absent full NATO membership which doesn't seem likely).

....

For now Ukraine will have to settle for another batch of artillery.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1527359870772514835[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-19-2022

(05-19-2022, 11:34 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Was about to post the same article. I agree NSM or Harpoon probably just keeps Russia surface vessels away from the Ukrainian coast, which it seems Ukraine has already accomplished with their Neptune sinking.



But it's a good thing that this is being pushed and I think we have seen a gradual transition to higher tech and better weapons as the war has gone on. I'm hopeful that NSM and HIMARS will eventually get to Ukraine, in addition to better SAMs. If a result of this conflict is that Ukraine gets fully stocked with good defensive military tech, that should make Ukraine too spikey of a meal to swallow, and will probably be crucial to a sustained peace. That will be more important than any sort of 3rd party guarantees of protection (absent full NATO membership which doesn't seem likely).



....



For now Ukraine will have to settle for another batch of artillery.

There is one thing the NSM has that the Neptune doesn't. It is available in quantities. It is unclear how many Neptune missiles and launchers Ukraine actually has, but given that the missile was declared "operational" in March 2021, it probably is available in limited supply and launchers even more limited supply. That is why Ukraine has been continually asking for anti-ship missiles. They need enough to saturate the South coast so they can reduce their manpower commitment there. NSM in a high-high-low flight pattern also has longer range, but I don't think that matters here.

I think your hopes for a much better armed Ukraine in the future are exactly correct. I am not sure where the SAMs could come from. The US is not big in that area right now. I also would not give up on the NATO membership. The future is opaque, but if Finland is OK, Ukraine isn't so much worse. A year ago, no chance. In a year from now, I am not so sure, especially if the Ukrainians manage to drive Russia back to the 24 Feb. borders or better. The EU and the US are going to be spending lots of money fixing damages in Ukraine (hopefully with mostly Russian money, but who knows?). At that point, it would be hard to argue they don't "qualify" (if North Macedonia does).

We keep sending them counter-battery radars. I guess they are still having a problem geolocating their targets. This isn't a totally trivial exercise, and takes training and reps with all the pieces playing together. Hard to do in the middle of a war, but necessary if one wants to have rounds in the air before the target moves (not that it seems the Russians are doing great at moving themselves, but up to now they don't have to). I am looking forward to see what the Ukrainians can accomplish with their "new" PzH 2000s. These units can really play havoc because they can actually "shoot and scoot". M777s six minutes 23 seconds are an eternity against a really good counter-battery (or Grad rockets properly targeted). Fortunately, Russia doesn't seem capable of doing this. Unfortunately, Ukraine may not be capable of anything close six minutes either.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-19-2022

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-might-get-german-iris-t-slm-medium-range-sam-system-reports

This is a German short/medium range system that is apparently being considered, but for delivery over next several years.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-19-2022

This is a cool video of Ukrainian artillery, where you can see they fine tune their targeting until they're dropping shell after shell on the Russian position eventually getting secondary explosions.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1527419724195414034?s=20&t=YIV8lrHxFJVeQSYXZlLgNg[/tweet]

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