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RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 07-18-2022
(07-18-2022, 12:29 PM)BobK Wrote: OF you are so very wrong.
About what? Keep in mind "wrong" only applies to missing demonstrable facts, not opinions on which most discussion here is based.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 07-18-2022
(07-18-2022, 01:06 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(07-18-2022, 12:29 PM)BobK Wrote: OF you are so very wrong.
About what? Keep in mind "wrong" only applies to missing demonstrable facts, not opinions on which most discussion here is based.
If you are a subscriber to The Athletic, read Andrew Baggerly’s article (dated 4-18-22) about Harrison.
As noted, the entire 2020 SF draft was developed around idea of selecting Harrison and paying him a bonus that was quadruple his slot value. The other five draft choices all accepted under slot bonuses to enable SF to execute their plan.
Why would the Giants put so many eggs in the Harrison basket? Easy answer - he is a shooting star.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 07-18-2022
OF, on Harrison you're on an island...alone.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 07-18-2022
(07-18-2022, 01:51 PM)Giants Wrote:(07-18-2022, 01:06 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(07-18-2022, 12:29 PM)BobK Wrote: OF you are so very wrong.
About what? Keep in mind "wrong" only applies to missing demonstrable facts, not opinions on which most discussion here is based.
If you are a subscriber to The Athletic, read Andrew Baggerly’s article (dated 4-18-22) about Harrison.
As noted, the entire 2020 SF draft was developed around idea of selecting Harrison and paying him a bonus that was quadruple his slot value. The other five draft choices all accepted under slot bonuses to enable SF to execute their plan.
Why would the Giants put so many eggs in the Harrison basket? Easy answer - he is a shooting star.
Slot value was around $700,000. Giants paid him $2.5 Million. (Facts). So, they obviously thought extremely highly of him. I don’t think anyone in the organization is surprised at how quickly he’s advanced. But like any draft pick (especially a pitcher) no matter how highly valued, there is no guarantee.
Shooting star - yes. Just hoping he keeps progressing. And stays healthy.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 07-18-2022
(07-18-2022, 07:12 PM)lex24 Wrote:(07-18-2022, 01:51 PM)Giants Wrote:(07-18-2022, 01:06 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(07-18-2022, 12:29 PM)BobK Wrote: OF you are so very wrong.
About what? Keep in mind "wrong" only applies to missing demonstrable facts, not opinions on which most discussion here is based.
If you are a subscriber to The Athletic, read Andrew Baggerly’s article (dated 4-18-22) about Harrison.
As noted, the entire 2020 SF draft was developed around idea of selecting Harrison and paying him a bonus that was quadruple his slot value. The other five draft choices all accepted under slot bonuses to enable SF to execute their plan.
Why would the Giants put so many eggs in the Harrison basket? Easy answer - he is a shooting star.
Slot value was around $700,000. Giants paid him $2.5 Million. (Facts). So, they obviously thought extremely highly of him. I don’t think anyone in the organization is surprised at how quickly he’s advanced. But like any draft pick (especially a pitcher) no matter how highly valued, there is no guarantee.
Shooting star - yes. Just hoping he keeps progressing. And stays healthy.
$710,700 to be exact :)
Therefore, in the interest of accuracy, he was paid 3 1/2 times slot value not quadruple as I initially wrote.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 07-19-2022
No matter how confident a team is in a player, something can always derail them. Confidence in something happening doesn't guarantee it will happen. When I said the Giants didn't know Harrison was a can't miss prospect, that was a correct statement. It's not proven until he actually is established in MLB with a sub 3.00 ERA and other impressive performance metrics as a starting pitcher.
You guys act like I was denigrating Harrison. Nothing could be farther from the truth. My entire point was that the Giants can't know about Crawford any more than they could Harrison or any other pick they have made. If they were so clairvoyant, their draft performance since 2015 wouldn't be the worst in MLB by kind of a lot. But it's not like only the Giants don't know. Nobody really does until a player proves themselves at the MLB level.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 07-19-2022
For those of you interested in the Juan Soto situation...
Was listening to The Michael Kay Show on YES yesterday. The possibility of Soto going to the Yankees or Mets dominated the discussion. The hosts agreed the Nationals wouldn't trade him now, and may not trade him next year given he has two more years after this one left on his deal before he can be a free agent. They suggested the Nats might offer him another deal later, but are in no hurry to act. Then they interviewed ESPN reporter Buster Olney...
Olney said he called several executives earlier in the day and the consensus was Soto will be traded by Aug. 2. Here are some other insights he offered:
- It will take a "Herschel Walker type haul" to land Soto
- Because he has 2 years after this one on his deal, teams could trade for Soto with no intention of signing him as a Free Agent
- The Nats will not "put him on a platter for the Mets or Braves" because they don't want him playing for a division rival
- The Nats want high level, ready for MLB prospects, not A ball guys (This eliminates the Giants)
- The Yankees and Dodgers probably don't want to give up their top prospects when already so good
- The Padres, Cardinals, and rangers are teams Olney identified as having the prospects the Nats covet
- Olney put the Padres at the top of the list of teams most likely to trade for Soto
lex24 - lex24 - 07-19-2022
(07-19-2022, 04:35 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: No matter how confident a team is in a player, something can always derail them. Confidence in something happening doesn't guarantee it will happen. When I said the Giants didn't know Harrison was a can't miss prospect, that was a correct statement. It's not proven until he actually is established in MLB with a sub 3.00 ERA and other impressive performance metrics as a starting pitcher.
You guys act like I was denigrating Harrison. Nothing could be farther from the truth. My entire point was that the Giants can't know about Crawford any more than they could Harrison or any other pick they have made. If they were so clairvoyant, their draft performance since 2015 wouldn't be the worst in MLB by kind of a lot. But it's not like only the Giants don't know. Nobody really does until a player proves themselves at the MLB level.
Except you didn’t say “can’t-miss”. You said: Giants didn’t know he was a “shooting-star” when they drafted him. Different standard. Can’t miss is exceedingly rare. And even they miss occasionally. “Shooting star” is someone quickly on the rise. Which Giants certainly thought Harrison was when they paid $2.5 mill….couldn't be counted on to be a Kyle Harrison-like shooting star when he was dr
RE: 2022 Giants thread - BobK - 07-19-2022
Just adding to the draft
Whisenhunt was projected at # 30 by BA. He didn’t pitch this season in college, a failed drug test. He was the Giants 2nd round pick
Likewise first pick Crawford don’t play this season. Injured. He was projected at 55.
Two lefties
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 07-19-2022
(07-19-2022, 09:00 AM)BobK Wrote: Just adding to the draft
Whisenhunt was projected at # 30 by BA. He didn’t pitch this season in college, a failed drug test. He was the Giants 2nd round pick
Likewise first pick Crawford don’t play this season. Injured. He was projected at 55.
Two lefties
Both (supposedly) very high ceiling guys. And if you think about it, the draft is a crapshoot anyway. Might as well aim high...which makes Patrick Bailey, the 2020 first round selection such a head scratcher. He's currently batting .194 and is .652 OPS in high A. Yikes...
RE: lex24 - Giants - 07-19-2022
(07-19-2022, 07:09 AM)lex24 Wrote:(07-19-2022, 04:35 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: No matter how confident a team is in a player, something can always derail them. Confidence in something happening doesn't guarantee it will happen. When I said the Giants didn't know Harrison was a can't miss prospect, that was a correct statement. It's not proven until he actually is established in MLB with a sub 3.00 ERA and other impressive performance metrics as a starting pitcher.
You guys act like I was denigrating Harrison. Nothing could be farther from the truth. My entire point was that the Giants can't know about Crawford any more than they could Harrison or any other pick they have made. If they were so clairvoyant, their draft performance since 2015 wouldn't be the worst in MLB by kind of a lot. But it's not like only the Giants don't know. Nobody really does until a player proves themselves at the MLB level.
Except you didn’t say “can’t-miss”. You said: Giants didn’t know he was a “shooting-star” when they drafted him. Different standard. Can’t miss is exceedingly rare. And even they miss occasionally. “Shooting star” is someone quickly on the rise. Which Giants certainly thought Harrison was when they paid $2.5 mill….couldn't be counted on to be a Kyle Harrison-like shooting star when he was dr
Correct. Thanks for articulating the matter in a cogent manner.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 07-20-2022
Next 12 to deadline. 5 vs Dodgers (4 at LA after break and Aug 1 to begin 4 game set in SF). 3 at AZ. 4 vs. Cubs.
Deadline always brings changes. Pads, Cards Brewers, Phillies. Those are the other teams I’m focusing on. I know Dodgers will add - they will get a starting pitcher, I suspect. Can’t think Gonsolin and Anderson will continue first half pace. May might be back in August. But who knows what to expect after 1 1/2 out from TJ. Buehler maybe Sept.
Zaidi has his work cut out. If they buy (as I suspect) I think it will be depth pieces. No big splash. Realistically this team can slip into playoffs. But even with Rodon and Webb at front end, it’s hard to see them getting deep. Dodgers, Mets and to a slightly lesser extent, Braves just have too much. And will have more. Especially the Mets if and when Scherzer and DeGrom are healthy enough to pitch.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Goose - 07-20-2022
(07-20-2022, 07:07 AM)lex24 Wrote: Zaidi has his work cut out. If they buy (as I suspect) I think it will be depth pieces. No big splash. Realistically this team can slip into playoffs. But even with Rodon and Webb at front end, it’s hard to see them getting deep. Dodgers, Mets and to a slightly lesser extent, Braves just have too much. And will have more. Especially the Mets if and when Scherzer and DeGrom are healthy enough to pitch.Agree, just based on the "vibe" the Giants seem to be radiating. No big splash, but no big trades (of the maybe two veteran pieces they have) for prospects either.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 07-20-2022
A deal or two to prop up the bullpen and perhaps a middle infielder. I would be surprised if it is anything more than that.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 07-20-2022
(07-20-2022, 07:07 AM)lex24 Wrote: Next 12 to deadline. 5 vs Dodgers (4 at LA after break and Aug 1 to begin 4 game set in SF). 3 at AZ. 4 vs. Cubs.
Deadline always brings changes. Pads, Cards Brewers, Phillies. Those are the other teams I’m focusing on. I know Dodgers will add - they will get a starting pitcher, I suspect. Can’t think Gonsolin and Anderson will continue first half pace. May might be back in August. But who knows what to expect after 1 1/2 out from TJ. Buehler maybe Sept.
Zaidi has his work cut out. If they buy (as I suspect) I think it will be depth pieces. No big splash. Realistically this team can slip into playoffs. But even with Rodon and Webb at front end, it’s hard to see them getting deep. Dodgers, Mets and to a slightly lesser extent, Braves just have too much. And will have more. Especially the Mets if and when Scherzer and DeGrom are healthy enough to pitch.
I suspect that Zaidi's attitude is a bit like that of Lynch/Shanahan...if they can slip into the playoffs as a wild card (like 2014) and get everyone healthy, they're a very good team, and maybe magic happens. But in the 27 years since the introduction of wild cards, the Wild card team has won just seven times, including the Giants in 2014. The best wild card team loses the matchup against the division winner about half the time (13 times), then loses the league championship series an additional 1/3rd of the time.
Odds are even longer in the NFL. In the 52 Super Bowls, only 7 wild card teams have won the Super Bowl and five of those seven were in a 13 year span between 1998 and 2011.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 07-20-2022
Let's see some predictions for how the standings shake out from here, shall we? I will go with...
AL East: Yankees (lock)
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros (lock)
WC 1: Rays
WC 2: Mariners
WC 3: Blue Jays
NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers (lock)
WC 1: Braves
WC 2: Padres
WC 3: Brewers
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 07-20-2022
NL Central: Brewers.
Wild Cards (in order) Giants, Padres, Cardinals.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 07-20-2022
(07-20-2022, 05:48 PM)Phogge Wrote: NL Central: Brewers.
Wild Cards (in order) Giants, Padres, Cardinals.
Playoffs without Mets and Braves is an impressively thin limb to perch yourself on.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - BostonCard - 07-20-2022
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/
Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Braves, and Metsall have 95% or higher chance of making the playoffs, the first three >99%.
After that the remaining seven spots are Up for grabs between 14 teams.
Jays, Rays, Phillies, Brewers, White Sox, Padres, and Mariners each have a better than even shot.
Red Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Giants, and Guardians also have a shot.
BC
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 07-20-2022
Never been big on predictions. I find that those who are make certain to tell you when they are right. And don’t mention when they are wrong….
Having said that, I’ll say this for NL:
East - Mets
Central - Cards
West- Duh
WC 1. Braves
WC 2. Pads
WC 3 Phillies.