Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-11-2022

You are posting 10 paragraph posts that are divorced from reality and keep talking about WWII. With respect, this war has not really been going how you have predicted it would from the start and it seems you are still trying to make it fit your priors. Retaking territory that Russia has occupied since the chaotic start of the war even after Russia has consolidated is a big deal, especially when it's miles from their border, and around Ukraine's second biggest city. Kharkiv is far more strategically important than some Donbas farmland that Ukraine is making Russia pay for with a LOT of blood.

The writing is on the wall for their Donbas offensive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 05-11-2022

(05-10-2022, 04:59 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  There are a lot of bad things the Russian govt/economy have created: the oligarchs, the criminals, nuclear proliferation, etc.  But these are not intrinsic to Russian people.

I'm keenly aware of the rich history in Russia and its contribution to culture: all the great composers, mathematicians, scientists, engineers, dancers, writers, philosophers -- their legacy lives on today in the Russian academy and performing arts, and ordinary Russians celebrate these too.  Obviously Russia contributes to the world economy as well -- raw materials, helium production, fertilizer, energy (hopefully less carbon-intensive in the future), etc.  I have to imagine that most ordinary Russians understand what their govt is doing to some degree but aren't allowed to voice their opposition.  Not everyone has the means to escape, and many have.  So I am waiting for the day when the dictator and military commanders will be held accountable for their crimes.  I wait for the day when the world can welcome ordinary Russians back to full global participation.

And as the climate warms, we'll see more and more of Russia's landmass become arable, and the world will likely need that agricultural production to offset loss of other croplands.  Russia is not poor, it is perhaps poorly managed as they say.

Right now, Ukraine needs to win the war decisively.  It will take everything they have, but it just might be enough.

"There are a lot of bad things the Russian govt/economy have created: the oligarchs, the criminals, nuclear proliferation, etc.  But these are not intrinsic to Russian people."  Really ? History would disagree. I acknowledge the composers and writers of yore, and of course, the Bolshoi (losing dancers now BTW) but make no mistake: these things are not the real Russia where the everyday folks eagerly and culturally and historically default to iron-fist authoritarian rule. Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin. He is the heir to a dismal, murderous legacy of tyranny. And his people, the RUSSIAN PEOPLE, have his back. He wreaks havoc for the the simple reason that he can. He knows his people well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-11-2022

I don’t know about that.  >200,000 Russians sure disagree.

Russia faces brain drain as thousands flee abroad https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60697763

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-11-2022

(05-11-2022, 07:16 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  You are posting 10 paragraph posts that are divorced from reality and keep talking about WWII. With respect, this war has not really been going how you have predicted it would from the start and it seems you are still trying to make it fit your priors.

In so far as things not going as predicted, I think I am in good company there. I find it interesting that you don't think that what has happened in past wars has bearing on what is going on today. It is certainly true that the military tends to structure itself to re-fight the last war, but that is the best reference it has. There are obviously great differences, and in this war Russia hasn't performed nearly as well as expected. However, right now I think there are parallels to Russia's behavior in previous wars, including the abuse of the civilian population. Their failure to execute their more "modern" strategy has caused them to revert to form. You obviously don't agree.

Quote:Retaking territory that Russia has occupied since the chaotic start of the war even after Russia has consolidated is a big deal, especially when it's miles from their border, and around Ukraine's second biggest city. Kharkiv is far more strategically important than some Donbas farmland that Ukraine is making Russia pay for with a LOT of blood.

Indeed it is much more important, and it is great Ukraine has done this. They absolutely could not afford to lose that city. They therefore expended lots of effort (and probably lives) to do so. I would however point out the the Russians knew exactly that and would probably say they made a "strategic retreat". They did, and do, continue to tie down Ukrainian forces there. The same is true along the South coast, where little fighting is going on. It is also always great when Ukraine inflicts heavy casualties on the Russians, even if sometimes they have to retreat in doing so. No question there. Kharkiv is, however, not in the Donbas. Right now it appears Russian's goals are in the Donbas. Ukraine is also unwilling to give up that territory. I think they would tell you the farmland there is pretty important to them.

Quote:The writing is on the wall for their Donbas offensive.

Hope you are correct. It may be, but at the moment it isn't clear to me what the outcome will be.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-11-2022

If this Ukrainian govt claim is true, it would be notable. Ukraine is saying that Russia has shifted to defense near Kharkiv, Izyum, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1524367433313751041?cxt=HHwWgsC4ndWG0qcqAAAA

That would mean that Russia is now only attacking in the Donbas. The part of the claim that seems most notable related to Izyum because Russia far outnumbers Ukrainian troops in that region from what I’ve seen recently.

I still have concern that Ukraine is ceding territory in the southeast near a couple of towns of ~100,000 people. Russia hasn’t encircled or taken any new towns of that size since the very early days of the war when it stormed Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol. Shelling Ukrainian cities and towns from the outskirts is bad enough, but Ukraine needs to do everything possible to prevent more massacres of urban civilians populations by occupying Russian soldiers.

But if the claim above is true, then I have a lot of hope that Russia’s momentum is stalling, as the media is claiming.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-11-2022

(05-11-2022, 07:33 AM)gailtate Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 04:59 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  There are a lot of bad things the Russian govt/economy have created: the oligarchs, the criminals, nuclear proliferation, etc.  But these are not intrinsic to Russian people.

I'm keenly aware of the rich history in Russia and its contribution to culture: all the great composers, mathematicians, scientists, engineers, dancers, writers, philosophers -- their legacy lives on today in the Russian academy and performing arts, and ordinary Russians celebrate these too.  Obviously Russia contributes to the world economy as well -- raw materials, helium production, fertilizer, energy (hopefully less carbon-intensive in the future), etc.  I have to imagine that most ordinary Russians understand what their govt is doing to some degree but aren't allowed to voice their opposition.  Not everyone has the means to escape, and many have.  So I am waiting for the day when the dictator and military commanders will be held accountable for their crimes.  I wait for the day when the world can welcome ordinary Russians back to full global participation.

And as the climate warms, we'll see more and more of Russia's landmass become arable, and the world will likely need that agricultural production to offset loss of other croplands.  Russia is not poor, it is perhaps poorly managed as they say.

Right now, Ukraine needs to win the war decisively.  It will take everything they have, but it just might be enough.

"There are a lot of bad things the Russian govt/economy have created: the oligarchs, the criminals, nuclear proliferation, etc.  But these are not intrinsic to Russian people."  Really ? History would disagree. I acknowledge the composers and writers of yore, and of course, the Bolshoi (losing dancers now BTW) but make no mistake: these things are not the real Russia where the everyday folks eagerly and culturally and historically default to iron-fist authoritarian rule. Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin. He is the heir to a dismal, murderous legacy of tyranny. And his people, the RUSSIAN PEOPLE, have his back. He wreaks havoc for the the simple reason that he can. He knows his people well.

They are both the Russian people. So are the > 200,000 who BC points out are leaving the country. Nobody understands it, including them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-11-2022

Ukrainian artillery post. And M777s are juuuuust now getting to the front so it's only going to get better. These videos all from last few days.

Counter battery-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524120751225589760?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

Taking out lead vehicle of armored column and continuing to wreak havoc

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1523943999932968960?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

They will find you in the trees

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1523919178851360769?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

MRLS making Russians go boom

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1523340521594560512?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

All your base are belong to us

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1523247089119272960?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

I just like the music in this one, 2S7 Pion big boys, 203mm, 30 mile range

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1522653753618448384?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

More counter battery

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522923005747372032?s=20&t=vr-RfGVboMR75I_1kR1U8A[/tweet]

Ok one more, don't have a video, just the aftermath. Not how you want to bridge a river. The better part of a Russian BTG wrecked.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808?s=20&t=YqlvAIpAKdCYiDFWWPYIkw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 05-11-2022

(05-11-2022, 07:54 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I don’t know about that.  >200,000 Russians sure disagree.

Russia faces brain drain as thousands flee abroad https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60697763

BC  

That's 1.4%. Rounded UP. BTW, the brain-drain train left the station years ago. And went to...Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-11-2022

(05-11-2022, 08:10 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  If this Ukrainian govt claim is true, it would be notable. Ukraine is saying that Russia has shifted to defense near Kharkiv, Izyum, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1524367433313751041?cxt=HHwWgsC4ndWG0qcqAAAA

That would mean that Russia is now only attacking in the Donbas. The part of the claim that seems most notable related to Izyum because Russia far outnumbers Ukrainian troops in that region from what I’ve seen recently.

I still have concern that Ukraine is ceding territory in the southeast near a couple of towns of ~100,000 people. Russia hasn’t encircled or taken any new towns of that size since the very early days of the war when it stormed Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol. Shelling Ukrainian cities and towns from the outskirts is bad enough, but Ukraine needs to do everything possible to prevent more massacres of urban civilians populations by occupying Russian soldiers.

But if the claim above is true, then I have a lot of hope that Russia’s momentum is stalling, as the media is claiming.

ISW says Russia is pulling troops from Izyum to defend against the counterattacks around Kharkiv. This is why I'm saying the Donbas offensive is finished. If one of your (very slow moving) pincers is getting pinched off itself at it's base, you're gonna have a bad time with an offensive.

Quote:Russian forces from the Izyum area are reportedly redeploying northwards to attempt to alleviate the pressure of this counteroffensive and stymie further northward advances toward the Russian border.[2] The Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely continue to divert Russian troops and resources from deployment to other axes of advance where fighting has been similarly stalled out by the successful Ukrainian defense. The counteroffensive will impede the ability of Russian artillery to target the northeastern suburbs of Kharkiv City, will potentially enable Ukrainian forces to threaten Russian rear areas with their own shelling and further attacks, and—if Ukrainian forces are able to further advance the counteroffensive or Russian forces collapse along the Kharkiv axis and withdraw further—unhinge Russian offensive operations around Izyum.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10

ISW undoubtedly has a pro-Ukraine slant, but from what I can tell they don't usually post BS.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-11-2022

It does seem pretty clear that Ukraine is pushing Russian troops away from Kharkiv, which is Ukraines second largest city.  I think the goal has been to get Russians far enough away that they can’t she’ll it, but they may be able to drive the Russian troops all the way to the border, which is about 30 miles from the outskirts of the city.

In Izium, it looks to me like the Russians are making pushing the Ukrainians, and though it is really slow, I have not got the sense that the Ukrainians have stopped them yet. OTOH, that was the pattern we saw in Kiev.  The Russians advanced, then the advance slowed to a crawl, then it was halted completely, then there were reports of Ukrainians counterattacking and then the Russians were pushed back.  Past is not always prologue, but that is my hope.

There is also the issue of crossing the Donets river, which will be an issue for both sides.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-11-2022

The first video from my Ukrainian artillery post above was reportedly the result of M777 artillery strike.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524474300874604545?s=20&t=Ndyl0r0G2CTvoGE-n2SvJQ[/tweet]

More on the ammo. Appears to be unguided, but some rocket assisted rounds.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524490850931474433?s=20&t=dcb9XbmUEO4Y9wQHm1-39A
[/tweet]
It's going to be mostly backwards for Russia from here.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-11-2022

Twitter is a place that melts your brain and should be avoided if possible, but wow is it an invaluable resource for war nerds. This is a thread from a Ukrainian combat engineer who predicted where Russia would build the bridge that got blown to smithereens in the last Pic from my post above, along with most of a Russian BTG.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506104192974849?s=20&t=CIIs0Nc7PJmRWxEvErVNPg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-11-2022

Thanks dabigv.  Today seems to have been a good day for Ukraine.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1524515820189147137?s=21&t=51np-vFnSnpL-7SGxW_fog[/tweet]

More progress around Kharkiv, starting to regain territory in the southwest, presumably with an aim to free Kherson, and the Russians are stymied around Izium, at least for now.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-11-2022

Cool story of Ukrainians using 1910 vintage machine guns to good efFect.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/05/11/why-ukraines-army-still-uses-a-100-year-old-machinegun

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-12-2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/finlands-leaders-announce-intention-to-apply-for-nato-membership-11652340796

Finland will ask to join NATO.  Sew the win, reap the whirlwind.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Softball Fan - 05-12-2022

Putin has got to be asking himself if anything more can go wrong.  I can see the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons inching a little closer to the forefront of his mine.  

Would the United States be accepting of Cuba joining a military alliance with China and Russia; having their missiles positioned close to our border?

There's no way Finland would proactively attack Russia but I can't envision how things look from Putin's viewpoint.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 05-12-2022

(05-12-2022, 07:54 AM)paloalto Wrote:  Putin has got to be asking himself if anything more can go wrong.  I can see the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons inching a little closer to the forefront of his mine.  

Would the United States be accepting of Cuba joining a military alliance with China and Russia; having their missiles positioned close to our border?

There's no way Finland would proactively attack Russia but I can't envision how things look from Putin's viewpoint.

Sounds like an early Tom Clancy novel.  I seem to recall cooler heads prevailing when the idea of tactical nukes were discussed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-12-2022

This thread from Pavel Podvig, a Russian expert on Russian nuclear and missile forces, I think is very good on the topic of "tactical" nukes and thinking about what their purpose would be for Russia.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1519430545503141888?s=20&t=oauSksAuG0zHzltTghlZog[/tweet]

Does using a nuke enable Russia to improve their military situation on the Ukraine? I don't think so. It would be about terror/resolve. And there are a lot of downsides for Putin. China and all the other fence sitters would get off the fence for sure and his domestic situation would be even worse. Of course, leaders do not always think rationally and act according to their best interest. Nuclear weapons are still controlled by fallible people.

.....

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524775132413280256?s=20&t=AWy8rAc2JpC7LTK5JglVrA[/tweet]

Interesting vid of Ukraine launching the recently UK supplied Brimstone missiles. Seems like they have indeed jury-rigged a box on truck mobile setup. These were the ostensible "anti-ship" missiles UK sent but they can be used in many roles and their range is too short to be used in an antiship role at this point with Russia keeping their fleet so far away from Ukrainian positions now due to Neptune threat. Not sure if these are actually flying at Russian targets though, the lady? in a tracksuit and people all on their phones suggests maybe a training/demo scenario.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-12-2022

(05-12-2022, 07:54 AM)paloalto Wrote:  Putin has got to be asking himself if anything more can go wrong.  I can see the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons inching a little closer to the forefront of his mine.  

Would the United States be accepting of Cuba joining a military alliance with China and Russia;

Well, in fact we did exactly that, Russia anyway. Russia had a naval base in Cuba. They flew also  TU-95s there and back twice a week for years. These flights dropped so many sonobuoys the claim was you could walk from Havana to Russia on them. Twice a week, out and back, come home with a tan.

Quote:having their missiles positioned close to our border?

This was only off the table because Russia did not have the conventional naval strength to break our "quarantine" and were unwilling to start a nuclear war over it. In the end, we removed our IRBMs from Turkey in return for them not placing theirs in Cuba. Both sides figured out that with all the ICBMs pointing at each other coming online, the IRBMs didn't matter much. There are NATO states that explicitly prohibit nuclear weapons on their soil (Denmark, for one). Finland can do the same.

Quote:There's no way Finland would proactively attack Russia but I can't envision how things look from Putin's viewpoint.

Me either, and there is the rub.

(05-12-2022, 08:32 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  This thread from Pavel Podvig, a Russian expert on Russian nuclear and missile forces, I think is very good on the topic of "tactical" nukes and thinking about what their purpose would be for Russia.

https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1519430545503141888?s=20&t=oauSksAuG0zHzltTghlZog

Does using a nuke enable Russia to improve their military situation on the Ukraine? I don't think so. It would be about terror/resolve. And there are a lot of downsides for Putin. China and all the other fence sitters would get off the fence for sure and his domestic situation would be even worse. Of course, leaders do not always think rationally and act according to their best interest. Nuclear weapons are still controlled by fallible people.

I think the tweet has it right. No reason to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine other than to kill lots of people and make them give up or to demonstrate a willingness to do so. You are also unfortunately exactly right IMHO that Putin is a very fallible leader. Hopefully the guys actually in the chain of delivering these weapons will just not do it. Even more hopefully we don't have to test that hypothesis.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-12-2022

(05-12-2022, 07:54 AM)paloalto Wrote:  Putin has got to be asking himself if anything more can go wrong.  I can see the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons inching a little closer to the forefront of his mine.  

Would the United States be accepting of Cuba joining a military alliance with China and Russia; having their missiles positioned close to our border?

There's no way Finland would proactively attack Russia but I can't envision how things look from Putin's viewpoint.

Interesting analogy you pose. I don’t know what the US would do in that circumstance, but let’s just say that Russia is not the superpower that the US is, and Cuba is both weak and a pariah, unlike Finland and Sweden. So I don’t think the analogy is apt here.  Putin put himself in a box by establishing a corrupt regime, running his own country into the ground, and deciding to be a war criminal. His threat to start a nuclear war is still scary, but it’s not the same level of deterrent it once was.

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