Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-08-2022

(05-08-2022, 03:53 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Azofstal is going to be a modern day Alamo.


BC

In some ways it is much more significant tactically. The Alamo did not materially slow down Santa Ana's advance into Texas. It was too one sided. Mariupol on the other hand has tied down a significant number of Russian BTGs for at least three weeks even after the garrison had retreated into their citadel, the Azofstal plant. Granted, Russia could have (and certainly should have) detached a small covering force and just left the Ukrainians there to rot, but the opponents errors count to the benefit of those who caused them.

Too bad the Marine commander tried to break out, or whatever he actually did. I am going to defer comment on his actions until we find out what his orders were and why he did what he did, if we ever do.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-08-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1523433888093458432?s=21&t=5GA8tYIO5XXqWL9k7hJjLg[/tweet]

It would be 99% symbolic, but there is 0 reason not to do this.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-09-2022

Happy Victory Day, all.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1523553222912540672?s=21&t=04vRUEe4-1WJu51MLfYdfg[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1523594541734891520?s=21&t=04vRUEe4-1WJu51MLfYdfg[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1523636161557975040?s=21&t=04vRUEe4-1WJu51MLfYdfg[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-10-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1523687526677975040?s=21&t=POo_zPtt3UVWyPOX2g_k_g[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-10-2022

Oh my.  I thought that's what the Chechens were sent over for.  Guess there aren't enough hatchet men to cow every Russian unit.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-10-2022

I am interested in all the updates. In the big picture, Ukraine is doing well at repelling Russian attacks.  But I have some concern that the press exhibits such a brobdingnagian Ukrainian bias that I’m getting a slanted view of events. Day after day, outlets like ISW, which get re-tweeted a lot, publish summaries that Russia made no material advances, but then bury the fact that Russia has taken additional villages/towns. At this point, there are at least a couple of places in the Donbas where it seems like there is a risk of Ukrainian troop encirclement. There are a couple of cities in the eastern part of the battle line arc that had a pre-war population ~100,000 that seem vulnerable to capture. The press makes it seem inevitable that Russia’s army will collapse before it takes the rest of the Donbas, but I’m concerned that there’s also some risk of a Ukrainian collapse at critical/strategic points on the front lines. I’m hoping that I’m just overthinking this.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 05-10-2022

This was entirely predictable:
https://www.ft.com/content/8db0d387-fb41-4142-b78f-6619d36d8be0

Hubris is a dictator's worst impulse.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 05-10-2022

(05-10-2022, 08:37 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I am interested in all the updates. In the big picture, Ukraine is doing well at repelling Russian attacks.  But I have some concern that the press exhibits such a of immense proportions Ukrainian bias that I’m getting a slanted view of events. Day after day, outlets like ISW, which get re-tweeted a lot, publish summaries that Russia made no material advances, but then bury the fact that Russia has taken additional villages/towns. At this point, there are at least a couple of places in the Donbas where it seems like there is a risk of Ukrainian troop encirclement. There are a couple of cities in the eastern part of the battle line arc that had a pre-war population ~100,000 that seem vulnerable to capture. The press makes it seem inevitable that Russia’s army will collapse before it takes the rest of the Donbas, but I’m concerned that there’s also some risk of a Ukrainian collapse at critical/strategic points on the front lines. I’m hoping that I’m just overthinking this.

"...a slanted view of events." Hmm. I'll put it this way. If Russia were to disappear today, utterly disappear without a trace, would this world miss it? Would the world be a lesser place? I wish it good riddance. Richly earned.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 05-10-2022

(05-10-2022, 11:39 AM)gailtate Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 08:37 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I am interested in all the updates. In the big picture, Ukraine is doing well at repelling Russian attacks.  But I have some concern that the press exhibits such a of immense proportions Ukrainian bias that I’m getting a slanted view of events. Day after day, outlets like ISW, which get re-tweeted a lot, publish summaries that Russia made no material advances, but then bury the fact that Russia has taken additional villages/towns. At this point, there are at least a couple of places in the Donbas where it seems like there is a risk of Ukrainian troop encirclement. There are a couple of cities in the eastern part of the battle line arc that had a pre-war population ~100,000 that seem vulnerable to capture. The press makes it seem inevitable that Russia’s army will collapse before it takes the rest of the Donbas, but I’m concerned that there’s also some risk of a Ukrainian collapse at critical/strategic points on the front lines. I’m hoping that I’m just overthinking this.

"...a slanted view of events." Hmm. I'll put it this way. If Russia were to disappear today, utterly disappear without a trace, would this world miss it? Would the world be a lesser place? I wish it good riddance. Richly earned.

In a word, yes. Where would the world get matryoshka dolls if Russia disappeared?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 05-10-2022

(05-10-2022, 11:46 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 11:39 AM)gailtate Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 08:37 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I am interested in all the updates. In the big picture, Ukraine is doing well at repelling Russian attacks.  But I have some concern that the press exhibits such a of immense proportions Ukrainian bias that I’m getting a slanted view of events. Day after day, outlets like ISW, which get re-tweeted a lot, publish summaries that Russia made no material advances, but then bury the fact that Russia has taken additional villages/towns. At this point, there are at least a couple of places in the Donbas where it seems like there is a risk of Ukrainian troop encirclement. There are a couple of cities in the eastern part of the battle line arc that had a pre-war population ~100,000 that seem vulnerable to capture. The press makes it seem inevitable that Russia’s army will collapse before it takes the rest of the Donbas, but I’m concerned that there’s also some risk of a Ukrainian collapse at critical/strategic points on the front lines. I’m hoping that I’m just overthinking this.

"...a slanted view of events." Hmm. I'll put it this way. If Russia were to disappear today, utterly disappear without a trace, would this world miss it? Would the world be a lesser place? I wish it good riddance. Richly earned.

In a word, yes. Where would the world get matryoshka dolls if Russia disappeared?

The steroid/PED market would contract significantly.  Same with the super-low-end vodka market. Don't know if there are any other casualties. Fewer Bond villains? Chess grandmasters? Oligarch-owned yachts?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-10-2022

I wasn't saying that the media assigning Ukraine the moral highground is slanted.  I was saying that the media reports the results of battles in a way that emphasizes Ukraine's successes and minimize its defeats.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 05-10-2022

(05-10-2022, 11:55 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 11:46 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 11:39 AM)gailtate Wrote:  

(05-10-2022, 08:37 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I am interested in all the updates. In the big picture, Ukraine is doing well at repelling Russian attacks.  But I have some concern that the press exhibits such a of immense proportions Ukrainian bias that I’m getting a slanted view of events. Day after day, outlets like ISW, which get re-tweeted a lot, publish summaries that Russia made no material advances, but then bury the fact that Russia has taken additional villages/towns. At this point, there are at least a couple of places in the Donbas where it seems like there is a risk of Ukrainian troop encirclement. There are a couple of cities in the eastern part of the battle line arc that had a pre-war population ~100,000 that seem vulnerable to capture. The press makes it seem inevitable that Russia’s army will collapse before it takes the rest of the Donbas, but I’m concerned that there’s also some risk of a Ukrainian collapse at critical/strategic points on the front lines. I’m hoping that I’m just overthinking this.

"...a slanted view of events." Hmm. I'll put it this way. If Russia were to disappear today, utterly disappear without a trace, would this world miss it? Would the world be a lesser place? I wish it good riddance. Richly earned.

In a word, yes. Where would the world get matryoshka dolls if Russia disappeared?

The steroid/PED market would contract significantly.  Same with the super-low-end vodka market.  Don't know if there are any other casualties.  Fewer Bond villains?  Chess grandmasters? Oligarch-owned yachts?

Best low priced vodka I get from Trader Joe's: Monopolowa Vodka from Austria of all places. Fabulous.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 05-10-2022

I agree that I am mainly seeing war news that is not complete.  Maybe that's partly my fault for the sources I look at, but I suspect that distortion is probably being seen by the majority of Americans (including those who provide media such as news).   It is too easy to fall into the trap of only looking for news that supports what you want to see happen.  And, if your government & news media want to sell that to you, it is an easy sell.

I don't support the thought of "What would we miss if Russia simply vanished?"  First off, that sounds too close to speculating about if the country were destroyed by some unthinkable holocaust.  I don't think anyone meant that, but still...   So I think the question is what if the Russian government simply vanished.  Obviously, the geographical Russia has millions of people, just like you and me   They need some sort of government so I'll presume we're talking about the situation in which a totally new government were in place (of course, that can't happen).

Separate from this  8-year-old war by Russia against Ukraine, I would celebrate the loss of the cybercriminals who seem to have a haven in Russia.  (Did you see that Lincoln College (Illinois) is shutting down after 157 years from the combined effects of the pandemic and ransomware attack.) 

I would hope that we would see fewer Olympic athletes who are given or are taking drugs.  (That's not to say that the US hasn't had such athletes in its sports.)

I guess I'm myopic and am simply not aware of what has come out of Russia that has helped the world since WWII.  Maybe the space race (BTW, I think the creation of the ARPAnet in 1969 has had a bigger impact on the world than the landing on the moon 3 months earlier.)

Philosophically, I wonder whether the world is more stable with three super powers or with two. 
One view is that two can potentially keep a third from trying to take over everything or do something irrational.
Another view is that any two can form a pact to take out the third.
Yet another view is that one will happily sit by and watch the other two beat each other up.
I'm not sure.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-10-2022

Russia is no more a superpower than the UK or France. By GDP, the US is ~1.5x China and China is ~3x third place. Russia was not in the top 10 before this war, and it’s only going to slip further in the future.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 05-10-2022

There are a lot of bad things the Russian govt/economy have created: the oligarchs, the criminals, nuclear proliferation, etc.  But these are not intrinsic to Russian people.

I'm keenly aware of the rich history in Russia and its contribution to culture: all the great composers, mathematicians, scientists, engineers, dancers, writers, philosophers -- their legacy lives on today in the Russian academy and performing arts, and ordinary Russians celebrate these too.  Obviously Russia contributes to the world economy as well -- raw materials, helium production, fertilizer, energy (hopefully less carbon-intensive in the future), etc.  I have to imagine that most ordinary Russians understand what their govt is doing to some degree but aren't allowed to voice their opposition.  Not everyone has the means to escape, and many have.  So I am waiting for the day when the dictator and military commanders will be held accountable for their crimes.  I wait for the day when the world can welcome ordinary Russians back to full global participation.

And as the climate warms, we'll see more and more of Russia's landmass become arable, and the world will likely need that agricultural production to offset loss of other croplands.  Russia is not poor, it is perhaps poorly managed as they say.

Right now, Ukraine needs to win the war decisively.  It will take everything they have, but it just might be enough.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-10-2022

(05-10-2022, 04:59 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  There are a lot of bad things the Russian govt/economy have created: the oligarchs, the criminals, nuclear proliferation, etc.  But these are not intrinsic to Russian people.

Unfortunately, the Russian people have had a raw deal for so long their society has significant problems that have very deep roots. It is unclear how their society can evolve to overcome these problems. The two chances they had in recent history to establish a government that lacked significant pathology did not go well, 1917 and 1991. They may get another chance if Putin is removed, but I am not too hopeful they can rise to the occasion.  It is often said that the Russian people want a "strong" leader. Wiser people than I have written much about this subject, but it appears the underlying society may need to change a lot before a "stable" democracy can emerge. There are also many problems caused by the fact that even the Russian Federation as we know it today contains many minorities that don't want to be there. No lack of issues.

Quote:<snip>
 So I am waiting for the day when the dictator and military commanders will be held accountable for their crimes.  I wait for the day when the world can welcome ordinary Russians back to full global participation.

Ordinary Russians are a big part of the problem. The world just has to face that fact. Many of the so-called "Western values" just don't exist in Russian society. It is a complex situation, so complex that even the so-called "liberal intelligentsia" in Russia doesn't understand it. That is one of the reasons that the reforms of Gorbachev and the democracy of Yeltsin both failed and yielded Putin. The people don't behave in the manner expected by their leaders. The only sure way to get a particular result is by force.

Quote:And as the climate warms, we'll see more and more of Russia's landmass become arable, and the world will likely need that agricultural production to offset loss of other croplands.  Russia is not poor, it is perhaps poorly managed as they say.



Right now, Ukraine needs to win the war decisively.  It will take everything they have, but it just might be enough.

Ukraine really does need to win, for their sake, for NATO's sake, and for Russia's sake. The world cannot tolerate a nuclear armed Russia led by a dictator who has no fear of punishment for reckless aggression. A dictator is bad enough, but we managed to coexist with them because they were rational and feared retaliation. This one does not.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-10-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1524084125300400128?s=21&t=Ak4WgYaWoHV2M2OyYv1S6w[/tweet]

This seems like a pretty neutral summary.  I think it is fair to be a bit skeptical of things until there is confirmation.  There are likely three things going on: 1) fog of war, 2) Ukrainians are providing much more information, so we tend to see things from their side and 3) probably some bias as well; I think most of us are “rooting” for Ukraine to win, and cognitive biases would have us emphasize the positives and de-emphasize the negatives.

That being said, on the biggest stories of the war so far, they have turned to be pretty good for Ukraine and pretty accurate.  Ukraine winning the battle of Kiev was a big deal.  Sinking the Moskva was important but not critical tactically, but a big deal symbolically.  Against that, Russia has captured Ukrainian territory in the South and East.  All in all, this is going better for Ukraine than most people expected, but the war is far from over, and I think there is probably a better than even chance that at the end of this, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is further compromised.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-11-2022

(05-10-2022, 10:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  That being said, on the biggest stories of the war so far, they have turned to be pretty good for Ukraine and pretty accurate.  Ukraine winning the battle of Kiev was a big deal.  Sinking the Moskva was important but not critical tactically, but a big deal symbolically.  Against that, Russia has captured Ukrainian territory in the South and East.  All in all, this is going better for Ukraine than most people expected, but the war is far from over, and I think there is probably a better than even chance that at the end of this, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is further compromised.


BC

I think your statement above is a good status report on where the war is today. More importantly, any evaluation going forward has to say, IMHO, that presently Ukraine is slowly losing the war. Russia is nibbling away in the Donbas. They are using the tried and true Russian approach of attacking everywhere and reinforcing success. Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia's tactical limitations limit their ability to exploit success. When this part of the war started the fear was that Russia would find a weak point, break through and massively reinforce that breakthrough, isolating Ukrainian troops and quickly encircling them.

During WW II, especially near the end, Russia would do exactly that. Their breakthroughs were accomplished by lining up artillery wheel to wheel and just pounding the Germans until some formation failed or was destroyed. As the Ukrainians are reporting, Russian artillery is "active along the entire line of contact". For quite a while, Germany possessed mobile striking power that they held in reserve until Russia broke the line someplace. When that happened, the mobile armored force would be committed to plug the gap. That actually worked quite well for a long time, but eventually the armored forces wore down and this no longer worked. Then Germany (having no mobile armored reserves) would then have to retreat along a broad front to avoid encirclement and total defeat. They lost the war 50km at a time.

Ukraine doesn't have a mobile armored force, but Russia also doesn't have the ability (apparently) to massively (and quickly) reinforce a breakthrough, so the Ukrainians still have to pull back along a broad front to avoid encirclement (or a salient that stretches them too thin). They just don't have to fall back as far. They are losing 5/10 km at a time. This is much more similar to WW I where neither side could exploit a breakthrough fast enough to prevent their opponent building a second line of defense to fall back into. All attacks had such massive buildups there were no surprises. This is pretty much where this war is ATM.

Ukraine has the potential to build up striking forces that can shatter the Russian methodical, grinding advances. They are now getting weapons and support to do exactly that, but doing so takes time. The Ukrainians are holding on as best they can while they do this. I am sure most of you have read about the Russian general who pointed out that the Russians could create more armored divisions but to create one using weapons from existing stocks would take 90 days. Ukraine is not exempt from that math, and I think the general was being a bit optimistic. Right now, given the reports we hear from Ukraine, it appears that they aren't making much of a dent in Russian artillery capability. Still no counter-battery. This may be a training issue and they just aren't ready. They really need this capability ASAP, because without it things will continue as-is.

As long as Russia is willing (and able) to absorb the losses associated with their tactics, they will continue to "win". Ukraine shows every intention to hold on and counter-attack when they have enough muscle to actually drive the Russians back. Right now, Ukraine can achieve local success but not strategic success. They obviously intend to change that. If Putin achieves his aims, whatever they are, and goes on the defensive, that will make Ukraine's task much harder. Let's hope Ukraine can develop enough combat power to push back hard, and that they can achieve the mobile breakthrough Russia cannot. If this war ends before that happens, BC will be correct about Ukraine's territorial losses.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-11-2022

Ukraine has pushed Russia back to its borders in some areas around Kharkiv. They have strategically withdrawn in some areas of the Donbas, losing single digit miles of terrain in this new Donbas offensive Russia has focused on. They aren't "slowly losing the war."

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1524113813024690176?s=20&t=cWlePDLw9yZYZgfoxCY75g[/tweet]

And there has been ample videos of Ukrainian counter battery fire. Lots of Russian arty going boom.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-11-2022

(05-11-2022, 06:48 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Ukraine has pushed Russia back to its borders in some areas around Kharkiv. They have strategically withdrawn in some areas of the Donbas, losing single digit miles of terrain.They aren't "slowly losing the war."

And there has been ample videos of Ukrainian counter battery fire. Lots of Russian arty going boom.

With respect, look at the amount of land area that is colored red from week to week. It is slowly increasing. I am not minimizing what Ukraine has accomplished. They are doing a great job and in places have driven the Russians back. However, you must remember that the Russians weren't there at the start of the war. Driving them back is great, but it is just restoring the status quo ante. I wish it weren't so, but it is. It is also not fatal. Russia hasn't captured anything recently that is a strategic defeat. Interestingly enough, as Germany retreated from Poland, the government repeatedly announced "strategic retreats" and "rationalizing the lines". 5/10 km is 3 to 6 miles. Single digits. Doing that repeatedly is slowly losing the war.

What is important is what Ukraine does next. They are trying to develop the ability to push back hard. As I said, this can't be done overnight. We collectively (or at least I) kind of expect when we deliver some new capability it will immediately be reflected on the battlefield. In general, it will not, because integrating a new weapon takes time in any army. It is even harder to to while you are fully engaged in an active war. Ukraine has already accomplished more than anybody though possible. They are, IMHO, on a path to victory. They just need to buy the time to get there.

You are correct, there is lots of video showing shells dropping on Russian artillery positions. In war, both sides fight. However, as long as the Ukrainians are reporting "Russian artillery is active along the entire line of contact", it isn't being nearly effective enough. We have shipped, and continue to ship, many firefinder radars. Ukraine also has drones of various types. When this equipment is integrated in their forces properly, by the time any Russian 152mm shell has reached it's apex, a fire mission should be on the way to an appropriate counter battery unit. OK, this is an ideal case, but as long as Russian artillery can fire on Ukrainian positions with apparent impunity, there is a big, big problem. The Ukrainians know this. That is why they have asked for what they did. Let's hope it got there soon enough to do the job.

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