Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-06-2022

Not 100% sure what this refers to, but it does sound like at least some of the stuff that leaked wasn’t meant to have leaked.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1522780035119075329?s=21&t=IzYfIM0Wu4_HoNbbhgRxUA[/tweet]

BC

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/intercepted-calls-catch-russian-troops-sabotaging-vladimir-putins-war-plans-by-breaking-tanks

I guess now we know why Russian tanks are littering the roads of Ukraine.  Russian commanders are fighting the unified armies of Ukraine and Russia.

NB, I am keenly aware that Ukraine leaked these intercepts; they have been masters of the information war, and certainly stand to benefit if they create the perception that the Russian troops are self-sabotaging.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-07-2022

(05-06-2022, 09:35 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  NB, I am keenly aware that Ukraine leaked these intercepts; they have been masters of the information war, and certainly stand to benefit if they create the perception that the Russian troops are self-sabotaging.


BC

They are the masters of the information war in the West. Obviously they are not, unfortunately, the masters of the information war in Russia. They are probably "winning" the information war in the rest of the world, like India, China etc, but I fear it is a much nearer run thing than we in the West appreciate. There are lots of people in the world that believe Putin, unfortunately, and many more who don't know what to believe.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-07-2022

Bayraktars have been laying waste to the Russians on Snake Island over the past few days. In this video they take out a Tor SAM system that's sitting on a landing ship (you can see the radar spinning if you look close) as well as a building on the island. Scroll up in the thread to see Bayraktars taking out other SAM systems and AA cannons and boats, all to some fantastic tunes. The buildings on the island are supposedly leveled now. 

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1522937041893441537?s=20&t=cGdRskEThvnN4ciAeJycow
[/tweet]
Remarkable how successful these really slow drones have been against Russian air defenses. NYT in their article about the Moskva sinking seemed to indicate the rumors of a Bayraktar distracting the Moskva was true as well.

Snake Island is very strategically located to interdict naval traffic through Odessa and the western Ukrainian coast and Ukraine has worked it over thoroughly. Might be a costly bit of land for Russia to continue to try and hold.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 06:38 AM)Goose Wrote:  They are the masters of the information war in the West. Obviously they are not, unfortunately, the masters of the information war in Russia. They are probably "winning" the information war in the rest of the world, like India, China etc, but I fear it is a much nearer run thing than we in the West appreciate. There are lots of people in the world that believe Putin, unfortunately, and many more who don't know what to believe.

Point well taken. I doubt any Russians are hearing stories that their countrymen are sabotaging their own tanks.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-07-2022

Wow! Footage of Ukrainian SU-27s striking Snake Island now, after the Bayraktars have suppressed their air defenses. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523027490230444035?s=20&t=tZXhq9BpGrwFdI6zRH2tXQ[/tweet]

Not sure Ukraine has the capabilities for an amphibious landing to retake it, but Snake Island as any sort of base for Russian activities must be pretty well neutralized by now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 01:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Wow! Footage of Ukrainian SU-27s striking Snake Island now, after the Bayraktars have suppressed their air defenses. 


Not sure Ukraine has the capabilities for an amphibious landing to retake it, but Snake Island as any sort of base for Russian activities must be pretty well neutralized by now.

They can probably re-take it, but then they will be in the Russian's shoes trying to hold it. Neither side has enough air control to prevent the island getting bombed. Also, there isn't any water on that island. You have to bring it all in. Sink the water ships and the garrison is toast. Not a good place to be. You would need a 24/7 CAP to hold the place and good enough sea control to run convoys at least periodically to the island.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-07-2022

Still, snake island was one of the few Russian successes in the war.  Since then,the Russian warship that was politely told to screw itself obliged by sinking to the bottom of the Black Sea, and the Russian force that took the island is toast.  Somewhere Pyrrhus of Epirus is smiling to himself.

BC

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1523019179896741888?s=21&t=Fzg39sRm2V9dcek-5tFlmg[/tweet]

Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive to relieve the pressure around Kharkiv, and drive some Russian forces back over the border. ISW doesn’t think that the Ukrainians will be able to threaten Russian supply lines to Izium, and that is probably correct but the Ukrainians have surprised us before.

Happy Victory Day.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 02:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Still, snake island was one of the few Russian successes in the war.  Since then,the Russian warship that was politely told to screw itself obliged by sinking to the bottom of the Black Sea, and the Russian force that took the island is toast.  Somewhere Pyrrhus of Epirus is smiling to himself.

Indeed, it was a Pyrrhic victory. Amazingly, at least to me, Russia keeps fighting battles it really doesn't need to. That is worse than Pyrrhic. Snake Island would have run out of food and water very quickly if just left alone. They would have been forced to surrender or be evacuated in any case. There were no weapons there that threatened Russian ships. Just make sure it isn't re-supplied and game over. Stupid. Calling it a "success" is hard to justify.

Quote:Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive to relieve the pressure around Kharkiv, and drive some Russian forces back over the border.  ISW doesn’t think that the Ukrainians will be able to threaten Russian supply lines to Izium, and that is probably correct but the Ukrainians have surprised us before.



Happy Victory Day.



BC

Driving the Russians out of artillery range of Kharkiv would be a big deal. Getting within shooting distance of at least part of the GLOC might give Ukraine a chance to pinch out some of the Russian salients around Izium. If supply becomes a constraint, the Russians might very well back off. I don't think Ukraine is yet at the point it can look at an envelopment, but that day needs to come. Ukraine is getting closer. If the battle in Donbas has the same profile as the one around Kiev it would be just fine. Bend, inflict disproportionate casualties, and then push back. Better still, get Russia over-extended and then cut them off.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 05-07-2022

listening to this right now.   A few days old, but some of you may be interested

https://www.hoover.org/research/ukraine-going-end-winning

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - akiddoc - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 09:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(05-07-2022, 06:38 AM)Goose Wrote:  They are the masters of the information war in the West. Obviously they are not, unfortunately, the masters of the information war in Russia. They are probably "winning" the information war in the rest of the world, like India, China etc, but I fear it is a much nearer run thing than we in the West appreciate. There are lots of people in the world that believe Putin, unfortunately, and many more who don't know what to believe.

Point well taken. I doubt any Russians are hearing stories that their countrymen are sabotaging their own tanks.

BC

20 million Russians have downloaded VPN's in the last 2 months. Certainly some are seeing what the rest of the world can see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 06:05 PM)akiddoc Wrote:  

(05-07-2022, 09:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(05-07-2022, 06:38 AM)Goose Wrote:  They are the masters of the information war in the West. Obviously they are not, unfortunately, the masters of the information war in Russia. They are probably "winning" the information war in the rest of the world, like India, China etc, but I fear it is a much nearer run thing than we in the West appreciate. There are lots of people in the world that believe Putin, unfortunately, and many more who don't know what to believe.

Point well taken. I doubt any Russians are hearing stories that their countrymen are sabotaging their own tanks.

BC

20 million Russians have downloaded VPN's in the last 2 months. Certainly some are seeing what the rest of the world can see.

Yes, they are downloading VPNs. How much they watch the news and how much the use the VPN to do "business" varies, but for sure there is a lot of the latter. I kind of assume Russians are more or less a lost cause until the deaths pile up to the point word of mouth can't be suppressed. That is what finally worked for Afghanistan. The places I worry about more are India, China, the Middle East, etc. These people don't have a dog in this fight, so they aren't following it as closely as nations who do. They are therefore easier to confuse or deceive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-07-2022

There was a map floating around this week showing the line between Russian and Ukrainian troops divided into ~7 sections with rough estimates of Russian BTGs and Ukrainian regiments in each of those sections of the battlefield.  It also had the length of each section of the front line and the approximate number of BTGs per km. It showed that Ukraine had someone consistent density of forces, whereas Russia had something like 4x-5x the density of forces in Izyum and the Donbas compared to Kharkiv and Kherson. My takeaway was that this counter offensive was predictable and something similar in Izyum or the Donbas in unlikely for now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 07:37 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  There was a map floating around this week showing the line between Russian and Ukrainian troops divided into ~7 sections with rough estimates of Russian BTGs and Ukrainian regiments in each of those sections of the battlefield.  It also had the length of each section of the front line and the approximate number of BTGs per km. It showed that Ukraine had someone consistent density of forces, whereas Russia had something like 4x-5x the density of forces in Izyum and the Donbas compared to Kharkiv and Kherson. My takeaway was that this counter offensive was predictable and something similar in Izyum or the Donbas in unlikely for now.

Unfortunately this troop distribution by the Ukrainians is necessitated by their lack of mobility. The vast majority of their forces are "leg" infantry. They lack mechanized infantry compared to the Russians. Fortunately, the Russian mechanized infantry doesn't move nearly as rapidly or effectively as one would expect. However, lots of Ukrainian infantry is "dad's army" and basically doesn't move at all. Since Ukraine can't reinforce rapidly, they can't shift troops from Kharkiv and/or Kherson because Russia could change direction (in theory) and there wouldn't be adequate forces in place to defend those areas.

That is why the M113's from the US National Guard are important. If Ukraine can develop a significant mechanized infantry force it can then distribute it's troops much more aggressively. The increased artillery capability can also be used defensively to allow thinning the front in "quiet sectors". If you have enough artillery you can hold off an attack until the reinforcements arrive. However, based on what the Ukrainians are saying that artillery is going towards counter-battery and counter attacking the Russians. Priorities I guess, they don't have "enough" of anything.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-07-2022

(05-07-2022, 07:37 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  There was a map floating around this week showing the line between Russian and Ukrainian troops divided into ~7 sections with rough estimates of Russian BTGs and Ukrainian regiments in each of those sections of the battlefield.  It also had the length of each section of the front line and the approximate number of BTGs per km. It showed that Ukraine had someone consistent density of forces, whereas Russia had something like 4x-5x the density of forces in Izyum and the Donbas compared to Kharkiv and Kherson. My takeaway was that this counter offensive was predictable and something similar in Izyum or the Donbas in unlikely for now.

The map is here- the author has indicated that the numbers should be understood to be pretty general, especially on the Ukrainian side.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1521529499296350209?s=20&t=7JGg-ihCLd5MRoFjkj93sA[/tweet]

Ukraine has been doing some local counteroffensives in the Donbas.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1522871820487372800?s=20&t=7JGg-ihCLd5MRoFjkj93sA[/tweet]

And they don't necessarily need to use APCs to move their units. They can and have been using plain old SUVs if you watch the videos they have put out from the Kharkiv counteroffensive. They control their territory and can move through it freely away from the very frontlines. Another reason why Russia's inability to establish air superiority has been terrible for them. They have also just recently allowed for TDF "dad's army" (but often made up of recent Donbas veterans) to be redeployed away from their home areas.

I think we are seeing the Russian's offensive culmination now. Ukraine will probably continue their gains around Kharkiv and Kherson in the next few weeks, and a few weeks down the line will probably start to regain in the Donbas. The first M777s are just now starting to be deployed.

I suspect Russia is going to start losing like Hemingway wrote about bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-08-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1523193649151897601?s=21&t=5aLShixqTydr6KwzdjssCg[/tweet]

Snake island might be a death trap.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-08-2022

(05-07-2022, 08:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  And they don't necessarily need to use APCs to move their units. They can and have been using plain old SUVs if you watch the videos they have put out from the Kharkiv counteroffensive. They control their territory and can move through it freely away from the very frontlines. Another reason why Russia's inability to establish air superiority has been terrible for them.

They have also just recently allowed for TDF "dad's army" (but often made up of recent Donbas veterans) to be redeployed away from their home areas.

I think we are seeing the Russian's offensive culmination now. Ukraine will probably continue their gains around Kharkiv and Kherson in the next few weeks, and a few weeks down the line will probably start to regain in the Donbas. The first M777s are just now starting to be deployed.

I suspect Russia is going to start losing like Hemingway wrote about bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly.

The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to move small units (company sized at most) using SUVs over relatively short distances using the road network when not in contact with the enemy. In contact with the enemy, or in situations where a meeting engagement is probable, SUVs are a death trap. They provide very minimal protection from small arms fire, let alone 12.5 mm machine gun fire or RPGs. SUVs will of course be shredded by the weapons on a BMP/BTR or any form of ATGM.  SUVs are vulnerable to even pretty distant misses with mortars or artillery. SUVs also have very limited cross country capability. Every road in Ukraine is already zeroed for artillery fire. Just use Google maps to get the lat long. SUVs have no mine resistance, and we know from Kiev how the Russians like to mine the roads when they are forced to retreat.

There is a reason (well, actually lots of reasons) why "battle taxis" exist. Mechanized infantry will stay in their IVFs as long as they can safely do so. In order to fight a real battle, they will dismount and fight as infantry, but they will avoid that as long as possible. If you dismount, you can only move at a walking pace. While mounted, you can move much faster and hopefully maneuver to outflank or surround your opponent.. Your opponent may chose to retreat in order to avoid this. By staying mounted, you can press the retreat and hopefully the "suddenly" happens.

Russia was able to back away from Kiev with few losses because Ukraine could not move their "leg" infantry fast enough to keep up with the Russians mounted retreat. Ukraine can't use SUVs as IFVs because one squad armed with small arms can bring an SUV convoy to a halt. The SUVs can't blow through the small arms fire and can't get off the road to outflank it. Even if proper tactical spacing was maintained, you have lost your point vehicle and everybody in it. Gives new meaning to "next man up". The troops have to dismount, force the squad to fall back, get back in the SUVs, drive 100 meters to the next delaying point, and repeat. God forbid some enterprising squad leader calls in a linear stonk on the road. Yes, even the Russians in their current sorry state can do that. The Ukrainians aren't foolish enough to attempt something like this, but therefore "suddenly" doesn't happen.

If one looks at the Russian efforts in Ukraine they do pretty well until they hit a built-up area where the Ukraine can concentrate their forces (and where there are already local forces present in numbers). Then Russia runs into serious resistance and often just bashes their head against the wall until they give up. What Ukraine needs is a mobile strategic reserve that can then smack the retreating Russians so hard they collapse. This same strategic reserve can be used to plug any significant breach in the line the Russians may open. As has been pointed out by others many times, Russia doesn't have enough troops to actually "occupy" Ukraine. Ukraine's problem is that their lack of mobility prevents them from taking any chances. If the Russians do find an exploitable weak point (which they have been looking for in the Donbas for the last three weeks) Ukraine can't currently rush troops to that spot. SUVs can't bring the troops onto the battlefield to dismount and fight and also can't come onto the battlefield, mount them up and advance/retreat either. They have to walk at least 10k or so, and that delay is critical. Your mounted opponents just blew through and are now behind you. Instead, you give up the 10k and defend there. That has been the story in the Donbas until recently. Slowly being pushed back.

Ukraine is now getting the weapons it needs for a more aggressive and more mobile form of warfare. Like it or not, it is going to take them some time to become "good" at it. We need to set our expectations accordingly. The fact Ukraine isn't very mobile and the fact that Russia can't seem to use their mobility (or air power for that matter) makes this war more like WW I than anything else. Frankly, I keep expecting one side or the other to "get it together" and get a move on. Right now, Ukraine has better morale and much better leadership, both civilian and military. They previously didn't have the means. They are now getting the means, although not as fast and as complete (MLRS anyone?) as they would like. Hopefully they will be the one that produces "suddenly".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-08-2022

Two more Russian boats taken out by TB2s on Snake Island.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1523223086942023680?s=20&t=9gqlDHBv-lnlYQPYmuyzrw
[/tweet]

Ukraine just leaving those dudes to twist in the wind while they bring death from the skies to anyone trying to rescue or resupply them. Seems most places are shitty places to be a Russian soldier, but Snake Island must be the shittiest.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-08-2022

(05-08-2022, 09:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Ukraine just leaving those dudes to twist in the wind while they bring death from the skies to anyone trying to rescue or resupply them. Seems most places are shitty places to be a Russian soldier, but Snake Island must be the shittiest.

Yes, especially because there is no earthly reason to be there. It is totally irrelevant to the war. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can supply it, yet Russia keeps trying????

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(05-06-2022, 08:28 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Lots of smoke online and from Ukraine that they've hit another Russian warship with a Neptune, the very new frigate Admiral Makarov. I suspect we will know one way or another soon enough.

Unfortunately, it looks like this was not true. I also find it discouraging that AFAIK none of the outlets that reported it has issued a story stating that fact. Most of them said "It is reported that..." so they didn't claim it was true, but setting the record straight would be nice. BTW, where exactly is the Admiral Makarov right now?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-08-2022

Until it makes it onto the Oryx list, it didn’t happen.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 05-08-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1523435337959108609?s=21&t=5GA8tYIO5XXqWL9k7hJjLg[/tweet]

Azofstal is going to be a modern day Alamo.

BC

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