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Re: What is the problem really??? - winflop - 12-04-2015

1. Avis Tedfraud never won a Rose Bowl
2. Avis Tedfraud never went to a Rose Bowl
3. Avis Tedfraud never won a Pac-12 CCG
4. Avis Tedfraud never went to a Pac-12 CCG
5. Avis Tedfraud never had a Top 10 recruiting class
6. Avis Tedfraud never had a player at the Downtown Athletic Club
7. Avis Tedfraud only won Pac-10/12 Coach of the Year once (in his first year with his predecessor's players)

Shall I keep going?

Re: What is the problem really??? - Extra Point - 12-04-2015

(12-04-2015, 05:32 PM)winflop link Wrote:1. Avis Tedfraud never won a Rose Bowl
2. Avis Tedfraud never went to a Rose Bowl
3. Avis Tedfraud never won a Pac-12 CCG
4. Avis Tedfraud never went to a Pac-12 CCG
5. Avis Tedfraud never had a Top 10 recruiting class
6. Avis Tedfraud never had a player at the Downtown Athletic Club
7. Avis Tedfraud only won Pac-10/12 Coach of the Year once (in his first year with his predecessor's players)

Shall I keep going?

Sure, go for it!

Re: What is the problem really??? - OutsiderFan - 12-04-2015

There are some parallels between Shaw and Tedford for sure, but David Shaw has really grown as a head coach this season, and the things I was worried about don't seem to have manifested.  None other than Tara Vanderveer has pointed out Shaw's growth as a head coach this year.  Tedford never grew, just became more paranoid.  I was concerned (as were others at the time that post was written) that Shaw wasn't growing as a head coach after that Northwestern debacle, but clearly he has.

First or second year Shaw doesn't win at WSU this year, IMO.  And look how well Stanford played at Colorado, the next opportunity to play an early morning start after playing in Evanston in the morning.

Shaw has learned from mistakes and is getting better for sure.  Still would like to see more go for the throat play calling than jumbo "we are running into 10 in the box, try to stop us" formations with small 4th quarter leads.  And want more going for it on 4th downs inside opponent territory, but these may be too much to ask. 

Whatever the case, it is now quite clear that Shaw is not going down the Tedford path. 

Re: What is the problem really??? - fullmetal - 12-04-2015

(12-04-2015, 07:15 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Still would like to see more go for the throat play calling than jumbo "we are running into 10 in the box, try to stop us" formations with small 4th quarter leads.  And want more going for it on 4th downs inside opponent territory, but these may be too much to ask.

At the moment, the two seem mutually exclusive :p  Going for it on 4th down tends to be our "identity play"...would love to see more misdirection here :)  Playaction from under center.  Hogan's gotta feel comfortable with a bevy of TEs and CajRector back in play...!  Not to mention an opportunity to let Owusu embarrass another southern California school DB with a no-look reception!

Re: What is the problem really??? - BostonCard - 12-05-2015

Funny how much more grown and mature Shaw seems after having won 10 games.  I'm not sure what Shaw has done differently since Northwestern other than win.

BC

Re: What is the problem really??? - JohnR34231 - 12-05-2015

Yeah, you would have to been a real believer to predict we would win 10 regular season games after watching that NW fiasco.
Although NW did turn out to be a much better team than we realized at the time.

Re: What is the problem really??? - stupac2 - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 02:09 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:Funny how much more grown and mature Shaw seems after having won 10 games.  I'm not sure what Shaw has done differently since Northwestern other than win.

BC

Eh, I think OF (while overstating his case a bit, as is typical) is making some good points. Shaw seems way more likely to go for it on 4th and short and this year, which could be mostly tactical (defense isn't as good, Wright is a monster at short yardage), but it's still a change. It's a hard counterfactual to run but I think he's onto something about the WSU game being a sure loss in previous years, to take the gameplan and completely throw it out the window like that, I don't think we've seen it before.

Small things, but Shaw was already a really good coach, there are only relatively small things to fix.

Re: What is the problem really??? - 81alum - 12-05-2015

(12-04-2015, 07:15 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:There are some parallels between Shaw and Tedford for sure, but David Shaw has really grown as a head coach this season, and the things I was worried about don't seem to have manifested.  None other than Tara Vanderveer has pointed out Shaw's growth as a head coach this year.  Tedford never grew, just became more paranoid.  I was concerned (as were others at the time that post was written) that Shaw wasn't growing as a head coach after that Northwestern debacle, but clearly he has.
I agree, to an extent.  I think Shaw has become a more effective playcaller, and he has gotten his team to execute better.  Both these two things were required to move away from the malaise that started the season to the success that really began against SC.  Any why not?  Any coach can have better and worse game plans, any player can have better or worse days.

One response to the fan reaction to Northwestern is that we overreacted.  Another response is that we didn't overreact at all--it was an absolute stinker of a game--but that all the criticism was part of the solution, helping to inspire some changes.  The truth?  Probably something in the middle.  The basic scheme remained, but Shaw changed up some personnel and emphases.  And of course execution was a major part of it.  Against Northwestern Kevin Hogan had a QBR of 24.8.  Against SC it was up to 97.7.  Part of that may have been better play calling, but part of it had to be Kevin just throwing more accurate passes and making better decisions about who to throw them to.

By the way, I would like to see another couple of nights of 97.7!

Re: What is the problem really??? - CrazedZooChimp - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 04:52 AM)JPRI link Wrote:Yeah, you would have to been a real believer to predict we would win 10 regular season games after watching that NW fiasco.
Although NW did turn out to be a much better team than we realized at the time.

I think if we'd all known NW was a top-15 team, there probably would have been at least a bit less panic.  Guess it turns out you can conclude very little from game 1.

Re: What is the problem really??? - BostonCard - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 08:28 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=12672.msg145691#msg145691 date=1449306548]
Funny how much more grown and mature Shaw seems after having won 10 games.  I'm not sure what Shaw has done differently since Northwestern other than win.

BC

Eh, I think OF (while overstating his case a bit, as is typical) is making some good points. Shaw seems way more likely to go for it on 4th and short and this year, which could be mostly tactical (defense isn't as good, Wright is a monster at short yardage), but it's still a change. It's a hard counterfactual to run but I think he's onto something about the WSU game being a sure loss in previous years, to take the gameplan and completely throw it out the window like that, I don't think we've seen it before.

Small things, but Shaw was already a really good coach, there are only relatively small things to fix.
[/quote]

We've gone for it on fourth down 11 times in 12 games; last year we went for it 10 times in 13 games.  That doesn't seem to be a meaningful difference to me, though one would have to look at the particular situations to be sure.  But at most there are only a couple of times over the course of the year where he went for it this year and wouldn't have gone for it last year... maybe.

I think mostly, though, winning fixes everything.  The same stubborn, idiotic coach after a loss is a brilliant determined coach after a win.  I doubt any of us are perceptive enough to detect a true change in the coach's attitude from the sidelines.  What we are detecting is a change in the coach's results. 

BC

Re: What is the problem really??? - stupac2 - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 11:40 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:We've gone for it on fourth down 11 times in 12 games; last year we went for it 10 times in 13 games.  That doesn't seem to be a meaningful difference to me, though one would have to look at the particular situations to be sure.  But at most there are only a couple of times over the course of the year where he went for it this year and wouldn't have gone for it last year... maybe.

Right, you'd have to count up all the 4th and 1-3 punts in 2014 vs 2015 to know for sure. But I think there have been far fewer punts this year, mostly because we're much better at converting on 3rd down, but also partly we're more likely to go for it when we don't absolutely have to.

Re: What is the problem really??? - Mick - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 10:22 AM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:[quote author=JPRI link=topic=12672.msg145694#msg145694 date=1449316372]
Yeah, you would have to been a real believer to predict we would win 10 regular season games after watching that NW fiasco.
Although NW did turn out to be a much better team than we realized at the time.

I think if we'd all known NW was a top-15 team, there probably would have been at least a bit less panic.  Guess it turns out you can conclude very little from game 1.
[/quote]


I generally throw out Northwestern as a competitive contest.  I'm a firm believer that if your players and coaches are getting up at 4:45 a.m. body clock time and you have a performance that depends upon strength, dexterity, teamwork, visual acuity etc., you are in for an absolute stinker of a game, pretty much no matter what. 

My kids used to play competitive volleyball and were usually ranked around #8-10 nationally.  One year, they were absolutely loaded, just had a killer team.  two of their players ultimately played on the national Pan Am roster, one was a multi-year All American for Stanford, and their entire starting seven went on to play D1.  When they were 17, they had to play an 8:00 a.m. game in Atlanta against a team from Maryland, a state where there is no established boys volleyball program -- at all -- against a team that was considered to be about #25 to #30 in the national rankings.  And they lost in a close match.  They looked like they'd just crawled out of sleeping bags.

Michigan had the same fiasco against Utah in a night game at altitude there.  I think the selection committee is smart enough to understand that.

Re: What is the problem really??? - CTcard - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 11:40 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:We've gone for it on fourth down 11 times in 12 games; last year we went for it 10 times in 13 games.  That doesn't seem to be a meaningful difference to me, though one would have to look at the particular situations to be sure. 

Over Shaw's time as head coach:

2015: 11 fourth down attempts in 12 games.
2014: 10 fourth down attempts in 13 games.
2013: 14 fourth down attempts in 14 games.
2012: 13 fourth down attempts in 13 games.
2011: 12 fourth down attempts in 13 games.

Remarkably consistent. 

Re: What is the problem really??? - winflop - 12-05-2015

(12-05-2015, 02:09 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:Funny how much more grown and mature Shaw seems after having won 10 games.  I'm not sure what Shaw has done differently since Northwestern other than win.

BC

He proved to me that the first nine games of last season and the first six quarters of this season were a blip and not a harbinger of things to come.

Re: What is the problem really??? - winflop - 12-05-2015

(12-04-2015, 05:35 PM)Extra Point link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=12672.msg145648#msg145648 date=1449275520]
1. Avis Tedfraud never won a Rose Bowl
2. Avis Tedfraud never went to a Rose Bowl
3. Avis Tedfraud never won a Pac-12 CCG
4. Avis Tedfraud never went to a Pac-12 CCG
5. Avis Tedfraud never had a Top 10 recruiting class
6. Avis Tedfraud never had a player at the Downtown Athletic Club
7. Avis Tedfraud only won Pac-10/12 Coach of the Year once (in his first year with his predecessor's players)

Shall I keep going?

Sure, go for it!
[/quote]

8. Avis Tedfraud never won a BCS bowl game
9. Avis Tedfraud never took a team to a BCS bowl game
10. Avis Tedfraud never got a team to anything better than the Holiday Bowl
11. Avis Tedfraud never got a team to 11 wins

Re: What is the problem really??? - BostonCard - 12-06-2015

(12-05-2015, 12:27 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=12672.msg145744#msg145744 date=1449340835]
We've gone for it on fourth down 11 times in 12 games; last year we went for it 10 times in 13 games.  That doesn't seem to be a meaningful difference to me, though one would have to look at the particular situations to be sure. 

Over Shaw's time as head coach:

2015: 11 fourth down attempts in 12 games.
2014: 10 fourth down attempts in 13 games.
2013: 14 fourth down attempts in 14 games.
2012: 13 fourth down attempts in 13 games.
2011: 12 fourth down attempts in 13 games.

Remarkably consistent.
[/quote]

I believed we went for it three times tonight, converting it twice.

BC

Re: What is the problem really??? - stupac2 - 12-06-2015

(12-06-2015, 12:34 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I believed we went for it three times tonight, converting it twice.

And maybe I'm crazy, but I think 2014 Shaw goes for 0 of those.