Stanford to Big10? - Printable Version

Stanford to Big10? - Printable Version

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RE: Stanford to Big10? - dabigv13 - 08-03-2023

Legislation was introduced but there's no law now. Look at what happened with UCLA and cal. If UW or Oregon make the move, it will be fait accompli. They may even be more motivated to move quick before some pesky regent or state legislator can make a fuss. And zero chance Big 10 would take OSU or WSU. Pure dilution, no return. At least Stanford and cal are academically prestigious and located in a decent media market.

All the reporting is about how UW and Oregon are most likely, and Stanford/cal less so. WSU and OSU aren't even a part of the conversation from Big 10's perspective.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - marchballer - 08-03-2023

Definitely going to be a sad day if we are left this weekend on an island with Cal and no major conference left to join. Major D1 sports has been a signature part of the university and university brand for a long time and it’ll be sad to watch it take a true back seat.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - TooMuchTV - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 12:48 PM)Beeg_Dawg Wrote: https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/02/big-ten-expansion-oregon-washington-pac-12-cal-stanford

Current info. Gut feel locally is Oregon won't be allowed to move unless OSU is part of the package. Same thing with UW and WSU. Legislation was introduced in Olympia last year requiring UW and WSU be in the same conference. https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?BillNumber=5206&Year=2023&Initiative=False

My guess is the Big 10 will do a four school deal to land the Ducks and Huskies with OSU and WSU going along for the ride. Cal and Stanford will be all that is left of the PAC with no viable options.

First, it's the Big Ten. I don't see the Big Ten taking OSU and WSU. If that's a dealbreaker for UO or UW, then we may just see Cal and Stanford as #17 and #18.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Maple Leaf - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 12:48 PM)Beeg_Dawg Wrote: https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/02/big-ten-expansion-oregon-washington-pac-12-cal-stanford

Current info. Gut feel locally is Oregon won't be allowed to move unless OSU is part of the package. Same thing with UW and WSU. Legislation was introduced in Olympia last year requiring UW and WSU be in the same conference. https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?BillNumber=5206&Year=2023&Initiative=False

My guess is the Big 10 will do a four school deal to land the Ducks and Huskies with OSU and WSU going along for the ride. Cal and Stanford will be all that is left of the PAC with no viable options.

If in fact this happens it will mark the point of no return for college athletics, especially for football and men's basketball. The Big10+ and SEC+ and the Big12+ will continue the march towards minor leagues. If given the opportunity to overturn Title 9 w/r to athletics these conferences would do it in a heartbeat for most women's sports, women's basketball, volleyball, softball and soccer would probably be safe.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - CompSci87 - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 11:43 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: And two weeks ago the Big Ten was not interested in further expansion either. You can't trust anything these jackals say to stand longer than the second they say it. They aren't interested in doing something they haven't done yet, until they decide to do it.

This is like the comment from a Big Ten source that got beat up like a piñata all across the internet yesterday: We don't want to be responsible for killing the Pac-12.

Yeah, by seducing USC and UCLA, the Big 10 is already largely responsible for killing the Pac-12.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Softball Fan - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 12:54 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Legislation was introduced but there's no law now. Look at what happened with UCLA and cal. If UW or Oregon make the move, it will be fait accompli. They may even be more motivated to move quick before some pesky regent or state legislator can make a fuss. And zero chance Big 10 would take OSU or WSU. Pure dilution, no return. At least Stanford and cal are academically prestigious and located in a decent media market.

All the reporting is about how UW and Oregon are most likely, and Stanford/cal less so. WSU and OSU aren't even a part of the conversation from Big 10's perspective.

I agree. I would be stunned beyond words to see the B1G indicate an interest in WSU and OSU. Even if WSU and OSU settled for a 10% share the B1G wouldn't want them dragging down the conference. WSU and OSU sports programs are pretty good but from a tv revenue standpoint they would be an anchor weighing down on the B1G. And travel to WSU and OSU from the midwest would not be something big time football factories would want to do.

Hieronymus - Hieronymus - 08-03-2023

If this ends with Stanford shutting it all down because there is no other option, I will have no remaining interest in college sports. I will shift my time to something else.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - 81alum - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 02:03 PM)paloalto Wrote:
(08-03-2023, 12:54 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Legislation was introduced but there's no law now. Look at what happened with UCLA and cal. If UW or Oregon make the move, it will be fait accompli. They may even be more motivated to move quick before some pesky regent or state legislator can make a fuss. And zero chance Big 10 would take OSU or WSU. Pure dilution, no return. At least Stanford and cal are academically prestigious and located in a decent media market.

All the reporting is about how UW and Oregon are most likely, and Stanford/cal less so. WSU and OSU aren't even a part of the conversation from Big 10's perspective.

I agree. I would be stunned beyond words to see the B1G indicate an interest in WSU and OSU. Even if WSU and OSU settled for a 10% share the B1G wouldn't want them dragging down the conference. WSU and OSU sports programs are pretty good but from a tv revenue standpoint they would be an anchor weighing down on the B1G. And travel to WSU and OSU from the midwest would not be something big time football factories would want to do.

Many of the original Big 10 universities have media markets that are much smaller than SF/Bay Area, and perhaps more on par with Corvallis.
Champaign and Bloomington and Iowa City combined add up to the population of Boise. East Lansing and West Lafayette are half the size of each of the three I just mentioned, on par with Corvallis. And some Big 10 schools go long spells without being competitive in the money sports. In short, the Big 10 already has a LOT of Washington States and Oregon States in its midst.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Goose - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 02:03 PM)paloalto Wrote: I would be stunned beyond words to see the B1G indicate an interest in WSU and OSU. Even if WSU and OSU settled for a 10% share the B1G wouldn't want them dragging down the conference. WSU and OSU sports programs are pretty good but from a tv revenue standpoint they would be an anchor weighing down on the B1G. And travel to WSU and OSU from the midwest would not be something big time football factories would want to do.

I too would be amazed if the B1G actually wanted WSU and OSU. However, the real question is whether the B1G could get more TV money in the near term by adding any give package of schools. It is wise to remember the B1G TV package already has many unanswered questions. It is hard to believe that under those circumstances anybody in the B1G would be out trying to "sell" a bigger deal. It would also be wise for potential members to ensure the terms of their admission are really "better" than the alternatives and are "solid" enough to quantify. All this rushing about to do deals quickly will undoubtedly make for some very "bad" contracts. Hopefully that won't happen and cooler heads will prevail, but that is certainly not a given.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - chrisk - 08-03-2023

from Wikipedia - realignment talks in the late 1950's

Quote:Following "pay-for-play" scandals at California, USC, UCLA, and Washington, the PCC disbanded in June 1959. Ten months earlier in August 1958, these four schools agreed to form a new conference that would take effect the following summer.[81][82] When the four schools and Stanford began discussions for a new conference in 1959, retired Admiral Thomas J. Hamilton interceded and suggested the schools consider creating a national "power conference" (Hamilton had been a key player, head coach, and athletic director at Navy, and was the current athletic director at Pittsburgh). Nicknamed the "Airplane Conference,"[83][84][85] the five former PCC schools would have played with other major academically-oriented schools, including Army, Navy, Air Force, Notre Dame, Pitt, Penn State, and Syracuse.[83][86] The effort fell through when a Pentagon official vetoed the idea and the service academies backed out.[87]

RE: Stanford to Big10? - GoodGrief - 08-03-2023

Holy crap, I just came across this article. Last year, USC's president Carol Folt shut down the discussion of acquiring Big-12 teams while possibly knowing and hinting to USC's football coach that they might leave the Pac-12.

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/usc-president-reportedly-sabotaged-pac-12-expansion-before-uscs-move-to-big-ten

Quote:USC president Carol Folt, who was not fond of the idea of adding teams and according to the LA Times' sources halted the talks. This led to the conference deciding to move on from the idea and not poach any Big 12 schools. A move that is now being interpreted as sabotage of the Pac-12, due to the fact USC is departing from the conference, and the same conference they could have poached from (The Big 12) is now in position to do the same to them.

Folt chose to not address the accusations, but USC's new coach Lincoln Riley did hint that he knew USC might have their sights set elsewhere at Pac-12 Media Day saying:

I had a little bit of a heads up with it,” Riley said. “We had conversations when I took the job, not specifically about the Big Ten, not about an imminent move, but we knew we were going to have to monitor the landscape of what’s going on. You have to be on the forefront, and so I’m glad our people were progressive enough to seize what I think is going to be a great opportunity. I certainly understand the reasons behind it and fully support it."

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Farm93 - 08-03-2023

Many of the existing small college town BigTen schools are in smallish towns. That's part of their charm, of course.
However, in many cases the schools represent citizens across the entire state AND many in those states are all-in on football Saturdays. Oregon State and Washington State do not fill their stadiums and they are not exactly the top weekend priority for citizens in the State of Washington or Oregon.

Worse - Few BigTen alums live near those campuses and both campuses are difficult for visiting fans to visit. OSU is probably more attractive than WSU, but both must seem undesirable. UW or UO may have legislative mandates to stay with WSU and OSU. However, those mandates might literally kill UW and UO football. My guess is few politicians would want to be known for killing UW or UO football.

Back to Stanford...

I recall during the last season when the USC/UCLA news emerged. Many of my season ticket football neighbors noted that the contests against the two SoCal schools were an important part of their season ticket purchase. It was rather clear to me that Stanford football might lose a good chunk of season ticket holders when UCLA & USC are not on the schedule. If UW and Oregon are added to that calculus then Stanford football will be in real trouble. It likely wouldn't matter if Stanford football landed in a conference a bunch of MWC schools or ACC schools, the stadium will be empty.

If the stadium will be virtually empty with or without a football team, then IMHO it would be better to cite CTE concerns and drop football.

Sadly, I am reduced to hoping that the BigTen intends to invite Stanford, but wants to improve the terms of the merger by making sure Stanford to has no other choice. This game of musical chairs is all about potential incremental TV revenue from football. Stanford, especially when it is in the 4-8 to 8-4 zone, would not be accretive to that conference even if Stanford accepted a dramatically reduced slice of the revenue pie.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Mick - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 12:31 PM)OCcardinal Wrote: Among various (mostly bad) alternatives, I like 6 West Coast teams in the Big 10. The Big 10 only plays 9 intraconference games per season. Presumably those West Coast teams would all play each other every year. So that would mean only two away games at the far-away Big 10 sites. Travel would be so much better for the student athletes (and fans). And of course that's good for athletes in other sports too. Plus you maintain all the historical connections between those 6 schools. But I read that USC doesn't want other West Coast schools in the Big 10. (They don't have a vote, but who knows what influence that might have.) I haven't heard why USC opposes adding other West Coast schools. Could be recruiting/self-doubt about their own competitiveness.

The LA Times reported that was localized to Oregon, not UW, Cal or Stanford.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Hieronymus - 08-03-2023

(08-03-2023, 02:33 PM)81alum Wrote:
(08-03-2023, 02:03 PM)paloalto Wrote:
(08-03-2023, 12:54 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Legislation was introduced but there's no law now. Look at what happened with UCLA and cal. If UW or Oregon make the move, it will be fait accompli. They may even be more motivated to move quick before some pesky regent or state legislator can make a fuss. And zero chance Big 10 would take OSU or WSU. Pure dilution, no return. At least Stanford and cal are academically prestigious and located in a decent media market.

All the reporting is about how UW and Oregon are most likely, and Stanford/cal less so. WSU and OSU aren't even a part of the conversation from Big 10's perspective.

I agree. I would be stunned beyond words to see the B1G indicate an interest in WSU and OSU. Even if WSU and OSU settled for a 10% share the B1G wouldn't want them dragging down the conference. WSU and OSU sports programs are pretty good but from a tv revenue standpoint they would be an anchor weighing down on the B1G. And travel to WSU and OSU from the midwest would not be something big time football factories would want to do.
Many of the original Big 10 universities have media markets that are much smaller than SF/Bay Area, and perhaps more on par with Corvallis.
Champaign and Bloomington and Iowa City combined add up to the population of Boise. East Lansing and West Lafayette are half the size of each of the three I just mentioned, on par with Corvallis. And some Big 10 schools go long spells without being competitive in the money sports. In short, the Big 10 already has a LOT of Washington States and Oregon States in its midst.

But mostly not really because the city a Big 10 school is in does not define its market. Madison covers Milwaukee and really the whole state. OSU is all of Ohio. Etc. You do have a few weaklings. Northwestern adds nobody even though it’s Chicago. Illinois only moderately covers the state. Indiana is Notre dame not Purdue or U Indiana. Mich St is mostly pointless. But at core the main big 10 schools proxy for whole states.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - TrumpCard - 08-04-2023

I stayed die hard through Mamlet. It’s not losing games that gets me down on college sports. It’s concussions. It’s the flippant reaction to the pandemic. It’s Varsity Blues. It’s abuse of the NIL system to make Stanford one of the few schools unwilling to engage in pay to play. As morality becomes less consistent with the game, Stanford will become even less able to compete with the big boys. Joining the B1G might add a little prestige and money in the short term, but before too long, I see Stanford being uncompetitive.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - fullmetal - 08-04-2023

(08-03-2023, 01:54 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:
(08-03-2023, 11:43 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: And two weeks ago the Big Ten was not interested in further expansion either. You can't trust anything these jackals say to stand longer than the second they say it. They aren't interested in doing something they haven't done yet, until they decide to do it.

This is like the comment from a Big Ten source that got beat up like a piñata all across the internet yesterday: We don't want to be responsible for killing the Pac-12.

Yeah, by seducing USC and UCLA, the Big 10 is already largely responsible for killing the Pac-12.

Both the USC and UCLA athletic directors are alumni of Big 10 universities...

RE: Stanford to Big10? - dwc13 - 08-04-2023

If the B1G Ten had its choice of (non-SEC) programs to add to the conference, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia, Washington, and Oregon would headline the list. Yes, UNC & UVA would be ahead of Washington and UO. Unfortunately, the ACC GoR appears to be problematic for schools wanting out, so UNC & UVA are not viable options at the present time.

Stanford really needs Notre Dame to agree to join the B1G Ten. If the Irish agreed, Stanford would be in. Alas, a pairing of Stanford and Cal would seriously erode the per share amount each conference member would receive for media rights. That's hard to sell. Both programs are situated in a large market, but from the metrics that really matter -- eyeballs watching football games -- neither school is attractive. But who knows -- perhaps the B1G Ten Chancellors/Presidents will remind the commissioner/ADs 4 teams were added to for athletics, so now it's time to add 2 more for academic reasons.

(08-03-2023, 12:48 PM)Beeg_Dawg Wrote: https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/02/big-ten-expansion-oregon-washington-pac-12-cal-stanford

Current info. Gut feel locally is Oregon won't be allowed to move unless OSU is part of the package. Same thing with UW and WSU. Legislation was introduced in Olympia last year requiring UW and WSU be in the same conference. https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?BillNumber=5206&Year=2023&Initiative=False

My guess is the Big 10 will do a four school deal to land the Ducks and Huskies with OSU and WSU going along for the ride. Cal and Stanford will be all that is left of the PAC with no viable options.

IMO, there is not even a snowball's chance in h*ll of Oregon State and WSU joining the B1G Ten.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Maple Leaf - 08-04-2023

I hope that the Stanford Daily conducts anonymous poll of both Stanford Student Athletes and Stanford Coaches (both head coaches and assistant coaches) on what is their preference(s); join the Big 10, or independent or be part of a new western based conference. The Athletes and then the Coaches should be the ones making the decision(s) since they are most impacted.

RE: Stanford to Big10? - Goose - 08-04-2023

(08-04-2023, 12:22 PM)Maple Leaf Wrote: The Athletes and then the Coaches should be the ones making the decision(s) since they are most impacted.

However, the constraints on the decision are laid by the financial and political realities of what is possible, and neither the coaches nor the athletes control, or are even aware, of those. As of now, I don't think anybody knows what is even possible, and what is possible/wise today may not be in a week.

Some schools have, or think they have, a "clear" path forward. Arizona thinks it needs to go to the Big-12 and do it right now. They seem to have no other choice. Oregon seems to be in the "B1G or bust" mode, but they will remain in the PAC-0 until that happens. They really don't have any other option. WSU, OSU, Cal and Stanford can talk to the B1G and/or the Big-12, but they aren't the first choice and nothing is going to happen "soon". None of these schools really has much ability to affect their futures. It will more happen to them than because of them. That is just a fact, I'm afraid. Who knows what ASU is "thinking"?