Shaw on the hot seat? - Printable Version
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RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - Ohiocard - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 10:03 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote: A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.
Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.
Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.
Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.
The timing could not be worse with the School having no idea how much TV $ it should be expecting in the next 5 years. Unlike the Big 10 & SEC who are in a position of strength and financially invested in the programs success. Also, If you can make 10 million a year to coach & live in Nebraska, Bama, or Wisconsin how much would Stanford have to pay to make up for the cost of living in Palo Alto? There is a reason all of our assistant coaches live in campus owned condos.
PS we must look at the candidates that have successfully rebuilt programs and figure out what % of their teams came from the portal in the last 2 years? Evaluating transfer prospects and finding the right guys is one of the most important abilities in a CFB coach, but it is useless right now at Stanford.
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - lex24 - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 10:03 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote: A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.
Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.
Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.
Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.
There has to be a buyout. To not have one would be Administrative malpractice.
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - 82lsju - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 10:03 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote: A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.
from Stanford's form 990 Shaw's comp in CY20 (last year available)
base comp $5.2m
bonus and incentive comp $0.6m
other reportable comp $0.6m
retirement and other deferred comp $0.1m
non-taxable benefits $0.05m
total $6.5m (total includes $0.4m reported as deferred comp in previous 990)
https://bondholder-information.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj21416/files/media/file/stanford_fy21_form_990.pdf
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - jacket3ree - 10-03-2022
Is there even a hot seat at Stanford?
It feels like Stanford Football and Stanford Men's Basketball are quiet quitting.
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - msqueri - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 10:42 AM)Ohiocard Wrote:(10-03-2022, 10:03 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote: A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.
Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.
Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.
Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.
The timing could not be worse with the School having no idea how much TV $ it should be expecting in the next 5 years. Unlike the Big 10 & SEC who are in a position of strength and financially invested in the programs success. Also, If you can make 10 million a year to coach & live in Nebraska, Bama, or Wisconsin how much would Stanford have to pay to make up for the cost of living in Palo Alto? There is a reason all of our assistant coaches live in campus owned condos.
PS we must look at the candidates that have successfully rebuilt programs and figure out what % of their teams came from the portal in the last 2 years? Evaluating transfer prospects and finding the right guys is one of the most important abilities in a CFB coach, but it is useless right now at Stanford.
Regarding the timing and our financial/tv money situation, I feel in the dark about where that stands. It seems to me multiple scenarios are possible:
* Muir and powers-that-be working behind the scenes to join the Big 10
* Muir and powers-that be working behind the scenes to join another conference
* Letting it ride on the Pac-12 (a bet I think will eventually bust)
* Exploration of a step back from major college football
Not only is each scenario unclear but the timescales on which moves would or wouldn't happen is unclear. I suspect those who matter know a whole lot more than I do but it's always possible they're operating on murky, contingent futures.
And then there's a layer on top of this of how Muir fits in. Maybe he can save his job and legacy by helping Stanford get to the Big 10. Maybe he's a dead man walking and an AD change is imminent, either concurrent with or in advance of a football search. Maybe he's totally secure in his job and powers-that-be don't give a damn about all the reasons I think Muir needs to be fired.
A lot of unknowns both when it comes to the money and athletic department administration.
As for looking for candidates who've succeeded without reliance on the transfer portal, that criterion would be favorable for numerous candidates:
* Proven Power Five head coaches (Paul Chryst, Chris Peterson, Bronco Mendenhall, Dave Clawson, etc.)
* Proven lower level head coaches (arguably Troy Taylor and Brent Brennan fit here)
* Coordinators at big-time programs that don't rely on transfers (Michigan DC Jesse Minter, Ohio State OC Kevin Wilson, Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees, Penn State DC Manny Diaz, Oklahoma State DC Derek Mason, Texas A&M DC DJ Durkin, Wake Forest OC Warren Ruggiero, Oregon State DC Trent Bray, Georgia OC Todd Monken, Georgia co-DC Will Muschamp) - several of these would be second chances for former head coaches
It might be an argument against some of the lower level guys and rising power Five coaches like Lance Leipold and Chris Kleiman, though they have success at lower levels that make me loath to write them off.
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - needle - 10-03-2022
If Stanford has kept Haase around, there is zero chance Shaw gets fired this year, imo.
My gut says Shaw could step down, if the money is there. Not necessarily AD, but maybe (way overpaid) special advisor at Stanford or NFL gig (laugh if you want, but I think the Raiders might have some interest).
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - 82lsju - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 12:54 PM)needle Wrote: If Stanford has kept Haase around, there is zero chance Shaw gets fired this year, imo.
My gut says Shaw could step down, if the money is there. Not necessarily AD, but maybe (way overpaid) special advisor at Stanford or NFL gig (laugh if you want, but I think the Raiders might have some interest).
in CY2020 Muir's comp was $2.5m
https://bondholder-information.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj21416/files/media/file/stanford_fy21_form_990.pdf
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - jonnyss - 10-03-2022
(10-03-2022, 12:25 PM)msqueri Wrote:(10-03-2022, 10:42 AM)Ohiocard Wrote:(10-03-2022, 10:03 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote: A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.
Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.
Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.
Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.
The timing could not be worse with the School having no idea how much TV $ it should be expecting in the next 5 years. Unlike the Big 10 & SEC who are in a position of strength and financially invested in the programs success. Also, If you can make 10 million a year to coach & live in Nebraska, Bama, or Wisconsin how much would Stanford have to pay to make up for the cost of living in Palo Alto? There is a reason all of our assistant coaches live in campus owned condos.
PS we must look at the candidates that have successfully rebuilt programs and figure out what % of their teams came from the portal in the last 2 years? Evaluating transfer prospects and finding the right guys is one of the most important abilities in a CFB coach, but it is useless right now at Stanford.
Regarding the timing and our financial/tv money situation, I feel in the dark about where that stands. It seems to me multiple scenarios are possible:
* Muir and powers-that-be working behind the scenes to join the Big 10
* Muir and powers-that be working behind the scenes to join another conference
* Letting it ride on the Pac-12 (a bet I think will eventually bust)
* Exploration of a step back from major college football
Not only is each scenario unclear but the timescales on which moves would or wouldn't happen is unclear. I suspect those who matter know a whole lot more than I do but it's always possible they're operating on murky, contingent futures.
And then there's a layer on top of this of how Muir fits in. Maybe he can save his job and legacy by helping Stanford get to the Big 10. Maybe he's a dead man walking and an AD change is imminent, either concurrent with or in advance of a football search. Maybe he's totally secure in his job and powers-that-be don't give a damn about all the reasons I think Muir needs to be fired.
A lot of unknowns both when it comes to the money and athletic department administration.
As for looking for candidates who've succeeded without reliance on the transfer portal, that criterion would be favorable for numerous candidates:
* Proven Power Five head coaches (Paul Chryst, Chris Peterson, Bronco Mendenhall, Dave Clawson, etc.)
* Proven lower level head coaches (arguably Troy Taylor and Brent Brennan fit here)
* Coordinators at big-time programs that don't rely on transfers (Michigan DC Jesse Minter, Ohio State OC Kevin Wilson, Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees, Penn State DC Manny Diaz, Oklahoma State DC Derek Mason, Texas A&M DC DJ Durkin, Wake Forest OC Warren Ruggiero, Oregon State DC Trent Bray, Georgia OC Todd Monken, Georgia co-DC Will Muschamp) - several of these would be second chances for former head coaches
It might be an argument against some of the lower level guys and rising power Five coaches like Lance Leipold and Chris Kleiman, though they have success at lower levels that make me loath to write them off.
can you spell demeco ryans, kids?
and did you watch his defense tonight against the rams?
yes, he can become an nfl head coach in a few years, but his salary wouldn't necessarily be higher. 2 guys we know well, vic fangio and robert saleh, each make 5 million. kyle shanahan makes 3.5.
imo top recruits would love to play for ryans. so would a bunch of transfers. plus he can pull some great assistants.
calling john lynch...calling john lynch...(for permission to talk to ryans)
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - Mick - 10-04-2022
(10-03-2022, 08:45 PM)jonnyss Wrote:(10-03-2022, 12:25 PM)msqueri Wrote:(10-03-2022, 10:42 AM)Ohiocard Wrote:(10-03-2022, 10:03 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote: A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.
Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.
Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.
Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.
The timing could not be worse with the School having no idea how much TV $ it should be expecting in the next 5 years. Unlike the Big 10 & SEC who are in a position of strength and financially invested in the programs success. Also, If you can make 10 million a year to coach & live in Nebraska, Bama, or Wisconsin how much would Stanford have to pay to make up for the cost of living in Palo Alto? There is a reason all of our assistant coaches live in campus owned condos.
PS we must look at the candidates that have successfully rebuilt programs and figure out what % of their teams came from the portal in the last 2 years? Evaluating transfer prospects and finding the right guys is one of the most important abilities in a CFB coach, but it is useless right now at Stanford.
Regarding the timing and our financial/tv money situation, I feel in the dark about where that stands. It seems to me multiple scenarios are possible:
* Muir and powers-that-be working behind the scenes to join the Big 10
* Muir and powers-that be working behind the scenes to join another conference
* Letting it ride on the Pac-12 (a bet I think will eventually bust)
* Exploration of a step back from major college football
Not only is each scenario unclear but the timescales on which moves would or wouldn't happen is unclear. I suspect those who matter know a whole lot more than I do but it's always possible they're operating on murky, contingent futures.
And then there's a layer on top of this of how Muir fits in. Maybe he can save his job and legacy by helping Stanford get to the Big 10. Maybe he's a dead man walking and an AD change is imminent, either concurrent with or in advance of a football search. Maybe he's totally secure in his job and powers-that-be don't give a damn about all the reasons I think Muir needs to be fired.
A lot of unknowns both when it comes to the money and athletic department administration.
As for looking for candidates who've succeeded without reliance on the transfer portal, that criterion would be favorable for numerous candidates:
* Proven Power Five head coaches (Paul Chryst, Chris Peterson, Bronco Mendenhall, Dave Clawson, etc.)
* Proven lower level head coaches (arguably Troy Taylor and Brent Brennan fit here)
* Coordinators at big-time programs that don't rely on transfers (Michigan DC Jesse Minter, Ohio State OC Kevin Wilson, Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees, Penn State DC Manny Diaz, Oklahoma State DC Derek Mason, Texas A&M DC DJ Durkin, Wake Forest OC Warren Ruggiero, Oregon State DC Trent Bray, Georgia OC Todd Monken, Georgia co-DC Will Muschamp) - several of these would be second chances for former head coaches
It might be an argument against some of the lower level guys and rising power Five coaches like Lance Leipold and Chris Kleiman, though they have success at lower levels that make me loath to write them off.
can you spell demeco ryans, kids?
and did you watch his defense tonight against the rams?
yes, he can become an nfl head coach in a few years, but his salary wouldn't necessarily be higher. 2 guys we know well, vic fangio and robert saleh, each make 5 million. kyle shanahan makes 3.5.
imo top recruits would love to play for ryans. so would a bunch of transfers. plus he can pull some great assistants.
calling john lynch...calling john lynch...(for permission to talk to ryans)
I think DeMeco Ryans would be nuts to take the Stanford job. He's a lot closer to becoming an NFL head coach from his existing role than from Stanford, which currently looks like to be on the advanced decline with uncertain institutional support.
RE: Shaw on the hot seat? - msqueri - 10-04-2022
Agreed that DeMeco Ryans would be very unrealistic for Stanford. More broadly, the NFL assistant ranks are a questionable place to look for a college coach. They're different ecosystems if not different sports entirely. There's some overlap between networks and skill sets but there's enough divergence to ensure major culture shock and/or non-transferrable skills going from one to the other. Even if one were to want to go to the pros to find a coach, somebody who is already on the list for NFL head coach jobs is an audacious place to look (not that we should avoid audacity, but have to be clear-eyed about what the reaction will be). More realistic would be New England Patriots inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo (who has some very impressive leadership/smart guy credentials to boot). Mayo is presumably much further from an NFL head coaching opportunity than Ryans, so maybe we'd be attractive to him. I'd have both on my list to put feelers out to but I wouldn't spend much time focusing on the pro ranks, more likely to get a bite and to find a good fit in the college ranks.