Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-29-2022

(04-29-2022, 07:01 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  200 tanks. Russia cutting off the gas doesn't seem to have shaken their resolve.

Poland claims they were prepared for this. They have a large stockpile and an LNG terminal in place. They are also tied in to the Baltic States who also have an LNG terminal (actually, I think they have two, one they built and a mobile one they lease?). How adequate that is in winter, I don't know, but for the next 5 months they are probably OK. They are also building a pipeline to Norway, which it seems will be done before winter.

I hope the US has ensured them that we will supply the LNG in case the open market can't. We can share the pain a bit. It looks like Poland may have taken care of itself. I am hoping Germany will take themselves off the Russian customer list, but it still isn't a sure thing.

The country that is really in worse shape is Bulgaria, as they didn't prepare for this. They have gas for one month in storage. They will have to scramble for the rest. They have no LNG terminals, and even if they did it would be in the Black Sea which right now is a shipping risk. There is traffic but the further north you go it really thins out. Greece is their best bet, but there is no pipeline in place, at least that anybody is talking about.

UPDATE: Yes, Bulgaria will have a pipeline before winter, hopefully much before.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/gas-pipeline-boosts-europes-bid-063706779.html

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(04-29-2022, 09:16 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Thanks MT. It does have the ring of misinformation, though it was retweeted by an account I trust (who might have fallen for the misinfo). 


BC

I have been hoping that these units and/or the HIMARS would be supplied to Ukraine. Properly used, they are a game changer. While M777 counter-battery can be effective, it is a lot "iffier" and requires the tubes be positioned closer to the target. It requires more people and more logistics. The tubes are also more vulnerable because moving them takes longer. The MLRS units can obliterate a Russian artillery unit if it is at known coordinates and can do so from quite far away. That unit will simply be gone.

The range and accuracy of the MLRS units depends on the missiles supplied. The older ones were area weapons, similar to the Russian Grad rockets. These units used cluster munitions to compensate for lack of accuracy. Russia has been using these munitions in Ukraine, so I would expect Ukraine using them would be allowable as well. While we have retrofitted many missiles with simple HE warheads, the simple fact is they don't work as well. The newer missiles (ATACMS) are longer range (300 km) and quite accurate. Note that these rockets are GPS guided and Russia has been jamming the GPS system in Ukraine quite heavily. I suspect (but don't know) there are "dual mode" rockets that use GLONASS as well.

The US may be supplying these systems to Ukraine and not acknowledging it, or one of the other NATO countries may be doing so. If they are there in any numbers, I would expect Russia to be bitching and threatening loud and clear. There would be lots of dead Russians and many more very skittish ones. The longer range rockets of these systems could also reach into Russia, and the US may be worried about that. For those reasons, I am a skeptic. However, I do hope it has happened.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-29-2022

Closer view of the dolphin pens in Sevastopol

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1520087936116707328?s=20&t=0XPwpqxLLfT2EKv72ug5iA[/tweet]

This next one is pretty insane (and a bit graphic). Second half of vid a Ukrainian UAV drops a munition through the open sunroof of a car being used by Russian troops. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1520049235906998272?s=20&t=a3pVjbXR7DopM3QNcsRcGQ[/tweet]

Lots of crazy stuff in that thread, including a chechen solider livestreaming before some sort of explosion goes boom extremely close (mine? artillery? rocket? ). Also some Ukrainian MLRS fires, but looks like older Soviet Grad rather than US HIMARS.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 04-29-2022

The sudden deaths of Russian oligarchs and family members highlights vulnerabilities in civil security.  I hope the FBI's top people are already knee-deep in the Los Angeles case (I wonder if they were already surveilling the target...).  As far as the FBI's role internationally, I hope they're cooperating on the ground with Spanish authorities as well.

I don't know how much India or China really care about Ukrainian lives, but both countries are able to leverage concessions from an increasingly desperate Russia now.  That has to be balanced with potential global sanctions and ostracism (as well as domestic sentiment for India; I would assume ordinary Indian voters are not Putin-supporters).  For all I know, Russian equipment and trade deals will be worth cooperation for India and China.  (Note to India: that Russian equipment you're buying seems to not hold up well in Ukraine.)

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/25/what-is-in-our-interest-india-and-ukraine-war-pub-86961

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-29-2022

The UaV munition drop through the open Sun roof was insane.  I think it would have hit the roof, had the SUV not started to move.  Considering it was an explosion in a relatively confined space, I’m surprised the Russian soldiers seemed to have survived.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-29-2022

It seems like a civilian quadcopter drone, so probably can only carry a very lightweight improvised munition. They definitely look like they're out of the fight for a while though.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-29-2022

This happened Thursday, but I didn't see it until today. It is a somewhat significant problem for Russia. Deliveries just go a lot harder. Unfortunately it appears the main steel beam survived, but who knows what isn't shown. Fixing this could easily take a week, depending on what was actually destroyed.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bridge-used-russians-deliver-weapons-123632490.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-29-2022

(04-29-2022, 08:12 PM)Goose Wrote:  This happened Thursday, but I didn't see it until today. It is a somewhat significant problem for Russia. Deliveries just go a lot harder. Unfortunately it appears the main steel beam survived, but who knows what isn't shown. Fixing this could easily take a week, depending on what was actually destroyed.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bridge-used-russians-deliver-weapons-123632490.html

I had seen reports of other attacks on the logistics lines, but that was the only one I saw a picture of.  It's possible the Ukrainians performed some spooky boy stuff behind lines, but it's also hard to discern real information vs propaganda.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-29-2022

Supposedly Ukrainian SSO, their special ops, blew up the rail bridge in Melitopol.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519808025145577473?s=20&t=qLkkPsDM5kDt7beFG0Em6Q[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-29-2022

Preserving infrastructure in Russian occupied territory is the least of Ukraine’s concerns right now, but heavens, it’s going to take a long time and a lot of money to try to rebuild if they ever recover that territory.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-29-2022

It’s debatable whether this would be legal under international law, but I’ve seen it proposed multiple times.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/united-states-should-seize-russian-assets-ukraines

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 04-29-2022

Scary to think about that power being hypothetically wielded by a "bad" govt vs. a "good" nation-state.  But you know what might also be illegal under international law is "special military operations" and war crimes committed on foreign soil.  No easy solutions here.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-30-2022

Good article with some nice visualizations on the Russian and Western artillery that are being used.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/30/ukraine-russia-artillery/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - bl82 - 04-30-2022

(04-30-2022, 10:59 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Good article with some nice visualizations on the Russian and Western artillery that are being used.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/30/ukraine-russia-artillery/

Thanks. Best article I've seen yet on the artillery situation and how it might evolve.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-30-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1520466291928272899?s=21&t=CoFHAYM3gnw5fqDB6nJkjQ[/tweet]

How many are we up to now?

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-30-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1520333220964933632?s=21&t=CoFHAYM3gnw5fqDB6nJkjQ[/tweet]

Good thread on the economic strangulation of Ukraine.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-30-2022

(04-30-2022, 01:01 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Good thread on the economic strangulation of Ukraine.



BC

Indeed it is. The bottom line is that Ukraine must "win" and negotiate a peace where Russia evacuates back to the borders of 24 Feb, more or less, and lifts the blockade. That is the minimum for an economically viable Ukraine. Even then, a UN peacekeeping force along the border would be a nice "tripwire" to any future Russian adventurism. For this kind of settlement to happen, probably Putin must go. Zelenskyy understands this. That is why he is saying Ukraine will give up no territory.

Militarily driving Russia out of these positions isn't quite as hard as the thread made it out to be. Air supremacy would do it, and Ukraine achieving that, or creating a path that leads to that, would force Russia to pull back. If sanctions and export controls stay in place, Russia just gets weaker in the air. If Ukraine gets 4th gen NATO aircraft and time to train on them, Russia is toast in the Donbas and in Crimea. Russia wants to keep Crimea, and Ukraine can tolerate that. Donbas is not nearly as vital to Russia. If Putin is gone, wiser heads can prevail. If he is still there, who knows.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-30-2022

Yup, another general KIA.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520510155858845699?s=21&t=CoFHAYM3gnw5fqDB6nJkjQ[/tweet]

That’s 9 confirmed, plus two unconfirmed.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-30-2022

(04-29-2022, 09:21 AM)Goose Wrote:  The country that is really in worse shape is Bulgaria, as they didn't prepare for this. They have gas for one month in storage. They will have to scramble for the rest. They have no LNG terminals, and even if they did it would be in the Black Sea which right now is a shipping risk. There is traffic but the further north you go it really thins out. Greece is their best bet, but there is no pipeline in place, at least that anybody is talking about.

UPDATE: Yes, Bulgaria will have a pipeline before winter, hopefully much before.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/gas-pipeline-boosts-europes-bid-063706779.html

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/katerinasokou/status/1519365566431117313?s=21&t=CoFHAYM3gnw5fqDB6nJkjQ[/tweet]

I think whatever happens in Ukraine, Russia has really hurt its long term interests.  Having seen up close the risks of relying on Russian natural gas, over the next few years, Europe is going to pivot hard away from natural gas generally and Russian gas specifically.  It will be a good deal for China, but it is a long, long way away to pipe gas from Russia’s Northwest to China.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-30-2022

I think the quickest and easiest way to break the Black Sea blockade is getting Ukraine better long range antiship missiles. It's a threshold we've already crossed, though only with short range missiles so far, and a capability Ukraine already possess, although apparently with only limited ammo. 

We've already given them loitering munitions fresh out of development that our own forces haven't even used. 50 Block V Tomahawks or LRASMs can probably put the whole Black Sea fleet out of commission even if they're just docked at Sevastopol.

Ukraine could perhaps use them against Russian homeland targets, and that might be too much of an escalation risk for US to be cool with. Maybe we give Ukraine just a few and tell them to use them wisely or they won't get anymore.

Or maybe we help them design some speedboat technical they can use with their Neptune missiles (and help them manufacture some more of those) so they can plausibly claim it was all domestic.

Or perhaps the Russian Army morale crumbles and Ukraine can successfully counterattack. Retaking Kherson puts Neptunes in range of Sevastopol.

.....

Another Ukrainian Stugna antitank missile taking out a hovering helicopter!

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1520545496451981312?s=20&t=AnqQ1cbv3I1CYG6FWh3CkA[/tweet]

Maybe we just have em mount a row of these on some speedboats and aim for the deck missiles....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-30-2022

(04-30-2022, 03:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Yup, another general KIA.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520510155858845699?s=21&t=CoFHAYM3gnw5fqDB6nJkjQ[/tweet]

That’s 9 confirmed, plus two unconfirmed.

BC

This is supposedly the artillery barrage that took out this general. Ukraine has been very effective with their artillery. Our new gear will be put to good use. Looks like the very first shot of the barrage hits a command post.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1520479287995994112?s=20&t=DN_sb9ez7IyjhumZnt3PSA[/tweet]

And here's a good thread about the hobbyist drones dropping grenades as seen in that video of the lucky/good hit through the sunroof.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1520561969153073153?s=20&t=7T2fWZ8jxya5KQY4mwbIMQ[/tweet]

Quote:The cost-effectiveness of these things is extraordinary. An octocopter drone costs maybe $10k, a Phantom 3 costs around $500. A mortar or RKG-1600 probably costs under $100. Each BMP-3 cost the Russians $796k. Add to that the potential cost of a lost crew. /12

As we have seen in Venezuela a couple years ago, the potential use of these for assassination or terrorist activity is high. And for US warfare purposes, with this cost effectiveness, we have to anticipate future enemies will be employing this tech widely. Counter drone tech will be very important to figure out, but can we do it in cost effective manner, or will it be like ICBMs and missile defense, where building more relatively cheap missiles to overwhelm the very expensive and limited defense is always the answer.

And to anyone listening, please develop civilian counter drone tech too. Too many assholes in my neighborhood who like to fly their new toys over my house.

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