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RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 06-25-2022
The Giants are 8-7 since I made the post calling for them to be sellers at the trade deadline and they are tied for the last Wild Card spot with the Brewers. This is not a pace that will win a Wild Card spot over Fodgers/Padres, Brewers/Cardinals, or Braves, and I find it comical that people here entertained the Giants possibly winning the division a couple weeks ago. They may "only" be 6.5 GB, but the metrics demonstrate they aren't that good and aren't going to perform much better. You can't overcome bad defense and being the slowest team in the game.
The best news since that post on June 9 is Rodon has been dominant and Pederson hasn't fallen off. Those two, along with maybe Dominic Leone and Jake Junis when he returns, are legit trade assets, and Rodon might be the most valuable trade asset available in all of MLB this year.
Looking at the performance of the Giants ballyhooed prospects this year, almost every single one of them is struggling to demonstrate why they are top prospects. The only ones performing to par after after being labeled top prospects are #1 Luciano (no on IL) in Eugene and #2 Harrison (returning to form after one bad outing at AA Richmond).
Look at these numbers...
#3 OF Luis Matos (A Eugene) 134 AB .187/.260/.499 1 HR, 1 SB
#4 SP Will Bednar (A San Jose) 43.0 IP 4.19 ERA, 7 HR, 22 BB, 51K (silver lining is only 1.09 WHIP even with so many BB)
#5 OF Heliot Ramos (AAA Sacramento) 217 AB .217/.312/.644 6 HR, 2 SB
#6 OF Jairo Pomares (A Eugene) 167 AB .228/.299/.724 8 HR, 0 SB
#7 C Patrick Bailey (A Eugene) 131 AB .198/.318/.344 5 HR, 0 SB
#8 OF Hunter Bishop (A Eugene) 217 AB .226/.317/.718 9 HR, 16 SB
#9 SP Matt Mikulski (A San Jose) 53.2 IP. 5.02 ERA, 7 HR, 17 BB, 57K
#10 SS Aeverson (A San Jose) 253 AB .281/.351/.792 7 HR, 5 SB
What's the point of going any further? You can already see the only Top 10 prospect showing consistent promise above A ball is Kyle Harrison. Sure, Luciano is probably close to getting promoted to Richmond, but none of the others is dominating their league after doing whatever they did to earn Top 10 prospects status. Looking at the stats, Hunter Bishop profiles as the best athlete with power of all of them, but can a guy hitting .226 be a legit MLB regular if he strikes out 85 times in 217 ABs in Eugene? This is a higher K rate than Bart had in Sacramento that translated to a 54% K rate in MLB.
The guy putting up the best numbers in the organization not named Marco Luciano is 3B Casey Schmitt, and for some reason he is only #13 on the prospect list, but he too is only in Eugene. The guy y'all rave about, David Villar isn't even considered a Top 30 Giants prospect according to MLB.
Translation: The Giants need more better prospects more than they need to hold on to expiring contracts that aren't going to allow them to make a playoff push of consequence in 2022. Anyone with eyes can see the Fodgers, Padres, Braves, and Cardinals are better, and the Brewers probably are as well. The Phillies seem to have even fewer trade assets than the Giants, so they likely aren't a threat. The prospects the Giants have aren't good enough to reel in any players in trades that will make them better than the teams they must surpass, so how does doing anything other than selling make sense?
I personally don't see selling as a bad thing or giving up on the season. I see it as a way to fortify yourself to be better in the future and cashing in assets for more than you paid for them.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 06-25-2022
(06-25-2022, 07:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants are 8-7 since I made the post calling for them to be sellers at the trade deadline and they are tied for the last Wild Card spot with the Brewers. This is not a pace that will win a Wild Card spot over Fodgers/Padres, Brewers/Cardinals, or Braves, and I find it comical that people here entertained the Giants possibly winning the division a couple weeks ago. They may "only" be 6.5 GB, but the metrics demonstrate they aren't that good and aren't going to perform much better. You can't overcome bad defense and being the slowest team in the game.
The best news since that post on June 9 is Rodon has been dominant and Pederson hasn't fallen off. Those two, along with maybe Dominic Leone and Jake Junis when he returns, are legit trade assets, and Rodon might be the most valuable trade asset available in all of MLB this year.
Looking at the performance of the Giants ballyhooed prospects this year, almost every single one of them is struggling to demonstrate why they are top prospects. The only ones performing to par after after being labeled top prospects are #1 Luciano (no on IL) in Eugene and #2 Harrison (returning to form after one bad outing at AA Richmond).
Look at these numbers...
#3 OF Luis Matos (A Eugene) 134 AB .187/.260/.499 1 HR, 1 SB
#4 SP Will Bednar (A San Jose) 43.0 IP 4.19 ERA, 7 HR, 22 BB, 51K (silver lining is only 1.09 WHIP even with so many BB)
#5 OF Heliot Ramos (AAA Sacramento) 217 AB .217/.312/.644 6 HR, 2 SB
#6 OF Jairo Pomares (A Eugene) 167 AB .228/.299/.724 8 HR, 0 SB
#7 C Patrick Bailey (A Eugene) 131 AB .198/.318/.344 5 HR, 0 SB
#8 OF Hunter Bishop (A Eugene) 217 AB .226/.317/.718 9 HR, 16 SB
#9 SP Matt Mikulski (A San Jose) 53.2 IP. 5.02 ERA, 7 HR, 17 BB, 57K
#10 SS Aeverson (A San Jose) 253 AB .281/.351/.792 7 HR, 5 SB
What's the point of going any further? You can already see the only Top 10 prospect showing consistent promise above A ball is Kyle Harrison. Sure, Luciano is probably close to getting promoted to Richmond, but none of the others is dominating their league after doing whatever they did to earn Top 10 prospects status. Looking at the stats, Hunter Bishop profiles as the best athlete with power of all of them, but can a guy hitting .226 be a legit MLB regular if he strikes out 85 times in 217 ABs in Eugene? This is a higher K rate than Bart had in Sacramento that translated to a 54% K rate in MLB.
The guy putting up the best numbers in the organization not named Marco Luciano is 3B Casey Schmitt, and for some reason he is only #13 on the prospect list, but he too is only in Eugene. The guy y'all rave about, David Villar isn't even considered a Top 30 Giants prospect according to MLB.
Translation: The Giants need more better prospects more than they need to hold on to expiring contracts that aren't going to allow them to make a playoff push of consequence in 2022. Anyone with eyes can see the Fodgers, Padres, Braves, and Cardinals are better, and the Brewers probably are as well. The Phillies seem to have even fewer trade assets than the Giants, so they likely aren't a threat. The prospects the Giants have aren't good enough to reel in any players in trades that will make them better than the teams they must surpass, so how does doing anything other than selling make sense?
I personally don't see selling as a bad thing or giving up on the season. I see it as a way to fortify yourself to be better in the future and cashing in assets for more than you paid for them.
Agree with OF. For the life of me, I don't understand the Patrick Bailey first round pick. I just don't get it, not at all. Hunter Bishop hit .304 at ASU, which doesn't scream upside, his OBP is .317 in high A. Really?
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 06-25-2022
(06-25-2022, 07:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants are 8-7 since I made the post calling for them to be sellers at the trade deadline and they are tied for the last Wild Card spot with the Brewers. This is not a pace that will win a Wild Card spot over Fodgers/Padres, Brewers/Cardinals, or Braves, and I find it comical that people here entertained the Giants possibly winning the division a couple weeks ago. They may "only" be 6.5 GB, but the metrics demonstrate they aren't that good and aren't going to perform much better. You can't overcome bad defense and being the slowest team in the game.
The best news since that post on June 9 is Rodon has been dominant and Pederson hasn't fallen off. Those two, along with maybe Dominic Leone and Jake Junis when he returns, are legit trade assets, and Rodon might be the most valuable trade asset available in all of MLB this year.
Looking at the performance of the Giants ballyhooed prospects this year, almost every single one of them is struggling to demonstrate why they are top prospects. The only ones performing to par after after being labeled top prospects are #1 Luciano (no on IL) in Eugene and #2 Harrison (returning to form after one bad outing at AA Richmond).
Look at these numbers...
#3 OF Luis Matos (A Eugene) 134 AB .187/.260/.499 1 HR, 1 SB
#4 SP Will Bednar (A San Jose) 43.0 IP 4.19 ERA, 7 HR, 22 BB, 51K (silver lining is only 1.09 WHIP even with so many BB)
#5 OF Heliot Ramos (AAA Sacramento) 217 AB .217/.312/.644 6 HR, 2 SB
#6 OF Jairo Pomares (A Eugene) 167 AB .228/.299/.724 8 HR, 0 SB
#7 C Patrick Bailey (A Eugene) 131 AB .198/.318/.344 5 HR, 0 SB
#8 OF Hunter Bishop (A Eugene) 217 AB .226/.317/.718 9 HR, 16 SB
#9 SP Matt Mikulski (A San Jose) 53.2 IP. 5.02 ERA, 7 HR, 17 BB, 57K
#10 SS Aeverson (A San Jose) 253 AB .281/.351/.792 7 HR, 5 SB
What's the point of going any further? You can already see the only Top 10 prospect showing consistent promise above A ball is Kyle Harrison. Sure, Luciano is probably close to getting promoted to Richmond, but none of the others is dominating their league after doing whatever they did to earn Top 10 prospects status. Looking at the stats, Hunter Bishop profiles as the best athlete with power of all of them, but can a guy hitting .226 be a legit MLB regular if he strikes out 85 times in 217 ABs in Eugene? This is a higher K rate than Bart had in Sacramento that translated to a 54% K rate in MLB.
The guy putting up the best numbers in the organization not named Marco Luciano is 3B Casey Schmitt, and for some reason he is only #13 on the prospect list, but he too is only in Eugene. The guy y'all rave about, David Villar isn't even considered a Top 30 Giants prospect according to MLB.
Translation: The Giants need more better prospects more than they need to hold on to expiring contracts that aren't going to allow them to make a playoff push of consequence in 2022. Anyone with eyes can see the Fodgers, Padres, Braves, and Cardinals are better, and the Brewers probably are as well. The Phillies seem to have even fewer trade assets than the Giants, so they likely aren't a threat. The prospects the Giants have aren't good enough to reel in any players in trades that will make them better than the teams they must surpass, so how does doing anything other than selling make sense?
I personally don't see selling as a bad thing or giving up on the season. I see it as a way to fortify yourself to be better in the future and cashing in assets for more than you paid for them.
We should just stop having opinions and adopt yours. But then again, no. I’ll start with the prospects. Many of the hitters you list are at Eugene. Read an article a while ago about that league. Hitting was way way down across the board - why? Atrocious weather for one thing. And difficult travel.
Matos is 20. 2.6 years younger than league average. Pomares 21. 1.3 below league average. Both off to bad starts. Completely understandable given the jump, their youth and the conditions.
Bailey is a switch hitting catcher. A rare commodity. Again got off to very slow start. No question his bat is lagging. But no reason to give up on him.
Aeverson Arteaga (I guess your on a first name basis) is 19. He’s 2.1 years younger than low A average. Numbers are pretty good considering that fact.
Bishop went more than 2 years playing very little baseball. Injuries and Covid. He’s behind, no question. Got off to a horrific start. But he hit a little better in May and he’s had a pretty good June.
Ramos is 22 in AAA. 6.9 years under league average. He’s just been on the radar so long that he seems older. It’s folly to suggest he’s a bust. He has the tools. He has some time to refine them. Patience.
Will all these and the others you lambast be major league players someday? Of course not. Every list of top 30 prospects over time is littered with those that don’t make it. Which is why depth in a farm system is important. Zaidi has improved the Giants depth tremendously. And yes, they need and will seek “more better” prospects. As do the other 29 organizations.
The Giants are, and I suspect will be, in a group of about 5 teams fighting for 3 spots. Dodgers/Padres (division loser) Brewers/Cardinals (ditto) Braves. Phillies.
Moves will be made at the deadline that will make a difference. It is possible Giants tank between now and then. But I doubt it.
You state that the “metrics suggest the giants aren’t “that good”, which I take to mean not as good as their record. But they are plus 40. (By comparison- Cards plus 59 Braves plus 44, Phillies plus 30, Brewers plus 10) Their expected W-L is actually a game better than their actual record. They’ve been poor in one run games.
As for the “folly” of suggesting they can win the division - well it was folly last year. And while I agree it’s highly unlikely, because I do think Dodgers and Pads are better, I’m not giving up the possibility. Too many games left. Too many possibilities.
Bottom line - you don’t have a freaking clue what you are talking about. But they are 8-7 since your wise proclamation. So, you find that as a time to pat yourself on the back (doesn’t your shoulder hurt from that?).
RE: 2022 Giants thread - BobK - 06-25-2022
You rock Lex.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 06-25-2022
Maybe OF is concealing the fact that he has been a scout or a GM at any level. I do think that he is a pessimist.
It's apparent, though the Giants don't acknowledge it, that Farhan works under a somewhat tight budget. The Dodgers, apparently, don't.
The Giants have invested heavily in International players and they form the core of their best prospects. They aren't going to be ready for a couple more years and nobody is being rushed, yet. Smith and Harrison have been promoted as has Wil Wilson. This isn't the NBA and nobody in the system is Ja Morant.
Not much can be done this year by unloading prospects for rentals. In the off season I'd rather see most of the older, often hurt, vets released or not resigned. I don't think that the Giants will go after Trea turner or Judge but maybe look at next year's Carlos Rodon. And spend the money to keep the real Carlos on the club.
Lots of #1 picks don't pan out. The Giants have had their share. I think the jury is still out on Bart and Bailey but I agree with the guys who scratch their head at his draft place. Perhaps the scouts were overawed by the switch hitting.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 06-25-2022
You nailed it, Lex. Heck, I think we are aligning in our observations more and more. Kinda scary…….
My comments…
Just spouting stats without context demonstrates a desire to reach a conclusion without making an effort to conduct the research that would support or refute the conclusion.
I would suggest that if one were serious about learning more about the Giants’ minor leaguers they would subscribe to The Athletic and follow Melissa Lockard. She does an excellent job of reviewing the results in context.
Not all of the Giants’ prospects are tearing it up but not all of them who have “poor stats” are doing badly. There is a myriad of reasons why….
For example, the stats are low across the board in the Northwest League. The weather has been a major factor behind the lousy numbers. MLB screwed up by designating the Northwest League as High A and the California League as Low A. The new setup should have been handled differently.
Eugene team average .236
Northwest League average .227
Eugene is #2 in batting average.
Also, to my knowledge, no one here has seriously suggested SF will overtake the Dodgers. Any suggestion to that effect was made purely in jest. Again, context/nuance are always helpful when reading posts made here.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - old spanish trail - 06-25-2022
Longoria with another error leading to a run. Why do the announcers always praise Longo's defense. He was a Golden Glover 25 years ago.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 06-25-2022
(06-25-2022, 04:47 PM)old spanish trail Wrote: Longoria with another error leading to a run. Why do the announcers always praise Longo's defense. He was a Golden Glover 25 years ago.
Longoria with 2 RBI’s. Longoria 2 Reds 1
RE: 2022 Giants thread - old spanish trail - 06-25-2022
That is true. He's heating up, as they say. And, he made a nice play on a grounder to his left, but he is no longer a gold glove 3B. He's really just adequate.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 06-26-2022
Aaron Judge. If he goes on FA market (which I doubt) we will then see if this ownership group is willing to spend. Judge will turn 31 April ‘23. It’s gonna take something along the lines of $300,000,000 over about 7-8 years. He is from the Valley. Has stated his affection for the Giants. Career 950 OPS. Park won’t affect him, he could hit it out of Yellowstone. The usual excuses will pop up - like the “back end” nonsense. But signing him won’t break the payroll, won’t slow down the development of any of the “kids” and won’t tie Zaidis hands.
Giants can and will buy out Longoria for $5 million. That takes about $15 million off the books. Belt? Well he is at $18 million. Does he come back? Maybe. But it would be a short term deal. And for less money. Maybe 2 years $20 million with a team option in year 2. I also don’t think retirement is beyond the realm of possibility. He’s dealing with pain quite a bit. No one is going to pay him on a long term deal with his chronic knee issue.
So they can commit $40 mill and be fine to make other moves. Assuming the ownership group is willing to compete financially with the big boys. Which I doubt.
What does Judge bring? He instantly gives your lineup credibility. He will improve those that hit before and after. He will add tremendous excitement. And he will put butts in the seat.
Stars matter. He’s one of the biggest.
Probably a useless exercise on my end, cause he’s likely to remain a Yankee. But Giant is getting concerned that we are agreeing too much. So, I’m giving him a reason to breathe easier…. :)
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Giants - 06-26-2022
Let Longoria and Belt go to free agency.
Sign free agents Josh Bell (30 years old at the beginning of 2023, a switch hitting 1B) and Aaron Judge. And keep Carlos Rodon with a new contract.
There you go. All of your SF Giant concerns have been addressed.
The only problem - I think Judge will sign a new deal with NY. Regardless, keep Rodon, sign Bell and a RH power bat.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - old spanish trail - 06-26-2022
Longoria double clutches on a semi difficult play at third and sends a wide throw that Belt can't reach, I THINK, leading to 7 run 3rd inning with two out. Yes, I'm on his case. Any 3rd basemen would say he should make the play. Not really that difficult.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 06-26-2022
(06-26-2022, 01:50 PM)Giants Wrote: Let Longoria and Belt go to free agency.
Sign free agents Josh Bell (30 years old at the beginning of 2023, a switch hitting 1B) and Aaron Judge. And keep Carlos Rodon with a new contract.
There you go. All of your SF Giant concerns have been addressed.
The only problem - I think Judge will sign a new deal with NY. Regardless, keep Rodon, sign Bell and a RH power bat.
Perfect!
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 06-26-2022
Giants sign Judge! Ultimate LOL. Hah.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 06-27-2022
I'm not the one telling people they must agree with me, because I'm not writing that those who disagree with me are clueless, or whatever other term you want to use to impugn someone's credibility and/or intelligence. I'm simply throwing out my opinion because that's what discussion boards are about, discussing things. Now, with that out of the way...
https://theathletic.com/3384884/2022/06/26/san-francisco-giants-lost-series-reds/?source=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Going into this season, I was willing to trust:
1) The organization that Joey Bart would be a passable replacement for Buster Posey.
2) My belief the Giants needed a proven RH hitter like Castellanos or Story, was misplaced because 35 yo Darren Ruf was the answer.
3) Letting Kris Bryant walk was the right move.
4) Signing Wood, DeSclafani, and Cobb instead of Gausman and two others was better for THIS season (I could buy not signing Gausman would be better for future seasons beyond 2022, but coming off 107 wins, you should want to build on that, right?)
What has happened? Bart was demoted to AAA. Most observers see Ruf has not been the RH hitting answer. Gausman would be way, way better than Cobb, DeSclafani, or Wood. Passing on Bryant looks smart so far (and Caleb Killian has a 10+ ERA in 2 Cubs starts). So 3/4 of the things I disagreed with but was willing to trust Farhan and co. to get right, have not worked at all. It's time for the Giants to own this and start planning for the future, IMO.
I'm not down on bringing the Brandons back, or even relying on Longoria in last year of his deal, because who else were the Giants going to get that made a lot of sense?
As for the prospect performance numbers, the age thing means nothing without context. Where is the evidence to show that players who are younger than average in a league will all of a sudden perform better when older? The guys in Eugene are not teenagers. When I was 10, I played in a league against 13 year olds. THAT was a big deal; 20 year olds playing against 22 year olds, not so much. Moreover, the Giants have an absolutely atrocious history of developing position player prospects who stick in MLB. Granted, some of the few they have developed, were World Series winning caliber all at one time (homegrown infield of Posey, Sandoval, Crawford, Belt, Panik), but the overall track record is just dreadful, so excuse me if I want to see Giants prospects doing a little more than hit for an average of .237 vs. a league avg. of .227 to feel confident they are actual future MLB players of consequence.
The Giants were a contender through April. They are pretenders after because their flaws have been exposed. They are old, slow, injury prone, allow too much soft contact to turn into runs and don't score enough with their own soft contact. They are boring, and very little you see from the current team gives you optimism for the future. I'd rather be under .500 with exciting players who will get better, knowing the team is building toward winning in the future, than see the current cast pretend to be contenders. Of course, my preference is to see the 5th most valuable team in MLB spend like they want to win by having a payroll at least up to the luxury tax threshold, not $100M below it.
Looking ahead, the Giants right now have several guys y'all want replaced signed for 2023 but just one player signed in 2024 (plus several players under team control), DeSclafani for $12M, a contract that could easily be bought out. How are they going to build out a roster with so many expiring contracts, and be anywhere near contention in 2024 without a bevy of prospects to give a shot at playing or being used as trade assets? Even if Luciano, Harrison, and Schmitt are ready in 2023, they will need more than the existing prospect pool is ready to provide. It is a PIPE DREAM that the Giants are signing Aaron Judge with a roster devoid of top talent beyond 2023. It wouldn't even make sense if they convince themselves to spend the money on him as a player, in a vacuum. The only big Free Agents it might make sense to sign are Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson, or maybe Rodon (after they trade him). :)
Some of you think I'm being a prisoner of the moment, impatient, pessimistic, or whatever. The fact is I'm looking at the bigger picture in the context of the current moment, and drawing my conclusions accordingly, based on a goal of wining another World Series or at least having an entertaining team.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - lex24 - 06-27-2022
(06-27-2022, 07:43 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I'm not the one telling people they must agree with me, because I'm not writing that those who disagree with me are clueless, or whatever other term you want to use to impugn someone's credibility and/or intelligence. I'm simply throwing out my opinion because that's what discussion boards are about, discussing things. Now, with that out of the way...
https://theathletic.com/3384884/2022/06/26/san-francisco-giants-lost-series-reds/?source=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Going into this season, I was willing to trust:
1) The organization that Joey Bart would be a passable replacement for Buster Posey.
2) My belief the Giants needed a proven RH hitter like Castellanos or Story, was misplaced because 35 yo Darren Ruf was the answer.
3) Letting Kris Bryant walk was the right move.
4) Signing Wood, DeSclafani, and Cobb instead of Gausman and two others was better for THIS season (I could buy not signing Gausman would be better for future seasons beyond 2022, but coming off 107 wins, you should want to build on that, right?)
What has happened? Bart was demoted to AAA. Most observers see Ruf has not been the RH hitting answer. Gausman would be way, way better than Cobb, DeSclafani, or Wood. Passing on Bryant looks smart so far (and Caleb Killian has a 10+ ERA in 2 Cubs starts). So 3/4 of the things I disagreed with but was willing to trust Farhan and co. to get right, have not worked at all. It's time for the Giants to own this and start planning for the future, IMO.
I'm not down on bringing the Brandons back, or even relying on Longoria in last year of his deal, because who else were the Giants going to get that made a lot of sense?
As for the prospect performance numbers, the age thing means nothing without context. Where is the evidence to show that players who are younger than average in a league will all of a sudden perform better when older? The guys in Eugene are not teenagers. When I was 10, I played in a league against 13 year olds. THAT was a big deal; 20 year olds playing against 22 year olds, not so much. Moreover, the Giants have an absolutely atrocious history of developing position player prospects who stick in MLB. Granted, some of the few they have developed, were World Series winning caliber all at one time (homegrown infield of Posey, Sandoval, Crawford, Belt, Panik), but the overall track record is just dreadful, so excuse me if I want to see Giants prospects doing a little more than hit for an average of .237 vs. a league avg. of .227 to feel confident they are actual future MLB players of consequence.
The Giants were a contender through April. They are pretenders after because their flaws have been exposed. They are old, slow, injury prone, allow too much soft contact to turn into runs and don't score enough with their own soft contact. They are boring, and very little you see from the current team gives you optimism for the future. I'd rather be under .500 with exciting players who will get better, knowing the team is building toward winning in the future, than see the current cast pretend to be contenders. Of course, my preference is to see the 5th most valuable team in MLB spend like they want to win by having a payroll at least up to the luxury tax threshold, not $100M below it.
Looking ahead, the Giants right now have several guys y'all want replaced signed for 2023 but just one player signed in 2024 (plus several players under team control), DeSclafani for $12M, a contract that could easily be bought out. How are they going to build out a roster with so many expiring contracts, and be anywhere near contention in 2024 without a bevy of prospects to give a shot at playing or being used as trade assets? Even if Luciano, Harrison, and Schmitt are ready in 2023, they will need more than the existing prospect pool is ready to provide. It is a PIPE DREAM that the Giants are signing Aaron Judge with a roster devoid of top talent beyond 2023. It wouldn't even make sense if they convince themselves to spend the money on him as a player, in a vacuum. The only big Free Agents it might make sense to sign are Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson, or maybe Rodon (after they trade him). :)
Some of you think I'm being a prisoner of the moment, impatient, pessimistic, or whatever. The fact is I'm looking at the bigger picture in the context of the current moment, and drawing my conclusions accordingly, based on a goal of wining another World Series or at least having an entertaining team.
You truly are going to compare little league to professional baseball? Age differential in the minors is a big deal. Matos Pomares Ramos being well under matters. For the same reason when a guy is 26 and tearing it up in low A, it’s taken with a grain of salt. Further, you ignored the other issues vis a vis Eugene. You don’t give up on top prospects that have moved up more quickly than most simply because they are struggling early on. They moved up earlier cause of their skill sets. You work to refine them Some will make the Show. Some won’t. Time will tell. That true across essentially every organization. Which, again, is why depth in the minors matters.
As to the remainder, no one on this thread suggests the Giants are a great team. Average to hopefully a bit above. But that may be enough to garner a WC. Then anything can happen. (Not one of the Giants Championship team was the best regular season team. In fact they were underdogs in at least 8 of the 9 series they won).
Turning to the roster - here are the players whose contracts expire after ‘23. Rodon (assuming he exercises option) Flores, Pederson, Casali, Boyd, Leone, Alvarez. Belt Of those, if im Zaidi I’m looking to see if I can extend Pederson, Flores and Casali. Be nice to keep Leone, but the fact is bullpens are essentially revolving doors. Boyd and Alvarez can be let go. Zaidi will have to add SP. that will be job 1. Rodon will, I suspect be too rich for their blood (and he’s somewhat iffy on a long term contract due to injury history). Belt won’t garner much FA interest. Too many injuries. If they want him back, they can sign him to a short term deal. Probably not costly. The FO will have tons of money to spend. One thing I do agree with you - they need to be willing to greatly increase payroll. I don’t know if they will. Hopefully, yes.
Finally, perhaps you would not have drawn the response you did, had it not come with your enthusiastic patting of your own back….
It’s a long season. Deadline shall bring changes. And hoping to add on.
I’m the guy that predicted 80 wins before the season. But the thing is, I want to be wrong. And I think I will be.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Mick - 06-27-2022
(06-27-2022, 07:43 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I'm not the one telling people they must agree with me, because I'm not writing that those who disagree with me are clueless, or whatever other term you want to use to impugn someone's credibility and/or intelligence. I'm simply throwing out my opinion because that's what discussion boards are about, discussing things. Now, with that out of the way...
https://theathletic.com/3384884/2022/06/26/san-francisco-giants-lost-series-reds/?source=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Going into this season, I was willing to trust:
1) The organization that Joey Bart would be a passable replacement for Buster Posey.
2) My belief the Giants needed a proven RH hitter like Castellanos or Story, was misplaced because 35 yo Darren Ruf was the answer.
3) Letting Kris Bryant walk was the right move.
4) Signing Wood, DeSclafani, and Cobb instead of Gausman and two others was better for THIS season (I could buy not signing Gausman would be better for future seasons beyond 2022, but coming off 107 wins, you should want to build on that, right?)
What has happened? Bart was demoted to AAA. Most observers see Ruf has not been the RH hitting answer. Gausman would be way, way better than Cobb, DeSclafani, or Wood. Passing on Bryant looks smart so far (and Caleb Killian has a 10+ ERA in 2 Cubs starts). So 3/4 of the things I disagreed with but was willing to trust Farhan and co. to get right, have not worked at all. It's time for the Giants to own this and start planning for the future, IMO.
I'm not down on bringing the Brandons back, or even relying on Longoria in last year of his deal, because who else were the Giants going to get that made a lot of sense?
It's time to get rid of the old guys, agreed. But I'd limit free agent signings to studs on the right side of age 30.
(06-27-2022, 07:43 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As for the prospect performance numbers, the age thing means nothing without context. Where is the evidence to show that players who are younger than average in a league will all of a sudden perform better when older? The guys in Eugene are not teenagers. When I was 10, I played in a league against 13 year olds. THAT was a big deal; 20 year olds playing against 22 year olds, not so much. Moreover, the Giants have an absolutely atrocious history of developing position player prospects who stick in MLB. Granted, some of the few they have developed, were World Series winning caliber all at one time (homegrown infield of Posey, Sandoval, Crawford, Belt, Panik), but the overall track record is just dreadful, so excuse me if I want to see Giants prospects doing a little more than hit for an average of .237 vs. a league avg. of .227 to feel confident they are actual future MLB players of consequence.
Why I think they should use some of their salary cap to trade for expiring contracts and minor leaguers with promise.
(06-27-2022, 07:43 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants were a contender through April. They are pretenders after because their flaws have been exposed. They are old, slow, injury prone, allow too much soft contact to turn into runs and don't score enough with their own soft contact. They are boring, and very little you see from the current team gives you optimism for the future. I'd rather be under .500 with exciting players who will get better, knowing the team is building toward winning in the future, than see the current cast pretend to be contenders. Of course, my preference is to see the 5th most valuable team in MLB spend like they want to win by having a payroll at least up to the luxury tax threshold, not $100M below it.
Mine too. I hope they aggressively trade for very large expiring contracts for spectacular minor leaguers, since so many of the SFG minor leaguers aren't performing well.
Signing starting pitchers of any age, or position players on the wrong side of 30 to long term deals concerns me, particularly those that fade over the last 1/3rd or 2/3rds of a season. The $110 million/5 yrs. Gausman is 5-6, same record as the $25 mms./2 yrs Wood. Webb, Rodon, Junis, Cobb have a better record. DeSclefani is 0-2.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 06-27-2022
Giving Midas money to anyone like Judge is not part of The Plan. The Plan is to gather a team that can contend playing .550 baseball while being patient. Farhan is betting his job on the prospects in the system. The Giants have loads but really none at the AAA level. Only fill ins. Que sera sera.
So relax fellas. Of course Bobbbb and I can only hope that they win another before the guy with the scythe visits. Much better chance than for another Rose Bowl.
RE: 2022 Giants thread - OutsiderFan - 06-27-2022
Here's one question nobody can answer, including Greg Papa, Tim Kawakami, and Andrew Baggarly...
Who decides what the Giants can and will spend on players and payroll? You would think the reporters and media who follow the team would know the answer, but nobody does. They all guess.
Does Farhan get told a budget and operate within it? Is he told to prioritize winning however he sees fit, and he doesn't think spending much now makes sense?
More to the point, there are now over 300 comments on TA Baggarly story about the Giants' flagging fan interest, and most of the comments speak to a team without any star players to care about. Even Niners and Warriors stories don't usually get that much response, so clearly Baggs touched a nerve with fans. Does the business side at some point tell whoever is in charge of payroll that they better ink some star players to market to the Bay Area to stay in the conversation with the Warriors and Niners' star-studded rosters?
RE: 2022 Giants thread - Phogge - 06-27-2022
I can speak only to the time I was with the Giants. Before FA. Until 1968 there was no local competition. After that, the deluge. By 1972 the Giants were in the process of unloading salary, Mays first and finally the young core almost solely to save money... Goodson, Kingman, trade Maddox, lose Matthews. The budget was tiny because the attendance was meager. Horace had no other business.
Today's owners have the Giants as a plaything. I can't imagine that these business giants and trust fund babies would operate even a grandkids' lemonade stand without a budget.
Papa is in love with one person...himself. He can rattle off the same point fifteen times in five minutes. I doubt that the fourth estate has relations with the highest echelons of team ownership.
BTW Yesterday Harrison 7IP, 2 hits (homers), 2ER, 1BB, 11K.