Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-14-2026

(01-14-2026, 11:49 AM)Publius Wrote:  There is a fascinating story here, which I can not share in a public forum.  My first cousin once removed was the head of this program.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/01/asia/taiwan-cia-informant-nuclear-weapons-chang-hsien-yi-intl-hnk

Thank you very much for this link. Interesting story.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 01-14-2026

(01-14-2026, 01:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(01-14-2026, 11:49 AM)Publius Wrote:  There is a fascinating story here, which I can not share in a public forum.  My first cousin once removed was the head of this program.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/01/asia/taiwan-cia-informant-nuclear-weapons-chang-hsien-yi-intl-hnk

Thank you very much for this link. Interesting story.

I wonder how many other countries advanced as far as Taiwan...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-14-2026

(01-14-2026, 04:16 PM)Mick Wrote:  

(01-14-2026, 01:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(01-14-2026, 11:49 AM)Publius Wrote:  There is a fascinating story here, which I can not share in a public forum.  My first cousin once removed was the head of this program.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/01/asia/taiwan-cia-informant-nuclear-weapons-chang-hsien-yi-intl-hnk

Thank you very much for this link. Interesting story.

I wonder how many other countries advanced as far as Taiwan...

That we know of, South Africa. There may be others that we don't know about.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 01-14-2026

Brazil and Argentina were in a nuclear race at one point.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Sam Leopold - 01-15-2026

This doesn't look so good:

Ukraine’s new defense chief reveals 200,000 soldiers have gone AWOL and 2 million are draft dodging | CNN

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 01-16-2026

(01-15-2026, 09:25 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  This doesn't look so good:

Ukraine’s new defense chief reveals 200,000 soldiers have gone AWOL and 2 million are draft dodging | CNN

Let's put a little perspective on the situation.

My understanding is there were an incredible number of soldiers in the USA Civil War (ACW) on both the North and the South sides that left their military units before their tour of duty was up.  That's not to say they didn't go back to their units or join other units, but they often left to take care of family or their homes.  Remember that the Russian-Ukrainian battle is happening where the Ukrainian families live.  If you were stationed in Central California and you heard your home & family was bombed, wouldn't you be tempted to go help out at home?  You wouldn't want to wait for the paperwork that might never come.

As for draft dodging, I was a young adult male in the Vietnam era.   Admittedly, that war was very different than the Russian invasion.  I don't know how many young men left the US (or used other avenues) to avoid serving in the military. I don't know how many more would have left had they been called up to the military (For instance, I was never called up so I was among the very large group that didn't have to commit to a decision one way or the other.)   I happen to know a woman who left the US at the time because she didn't like what was happening.   Going back to the ACW times, I know of the youngest boy (b 1853) in a military family (both N and S) that was sent to California to avoid being involved in the war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-16-2026

(01-16-2026, 01:38 PM)M T Wrote:  Let's put a little perspective on the situation.

My understanding is there were an incredible number of soldiers in the USA Civil War (ACW) on both the North and the South sides that left their military units before their tour of duty was up.  That's not to say they didn't go back to their units or join other units, but they often left to take care of family or their homes.  Remember that the Russian-Ukrainian battle is happening where the Ukrainian families live.  If you were stationed in Central California and you heard your home & family was bombed, wouldn't you be tempted to go help out at home?  You wouldn't want to wait for the paperwork that might never come.

Indeed many Ukrainian soldiers do leave their units temporarily. Others leave their units (because they don't like their commanders usually) and join other units that are more to their liking. However, these fluctuating strength numbers make it very difficult to assign units to specific tasks. They may be greatly under strength and not capable of executing tasks a unit of their Table of Organization size should easily accomplish. The Germans in WWII had a big problem with this disparity in capability. Their losses were not due to desertion but rather casualties. They didn't "top-up" units but rather fought them until they collapsed. However, their planners had to keep a separate list of which regiments were actually company strength formations. Despite attempting to deal with the various actual strengths (as opposed to TO strength) "regiments" were often given stretches of front to defend they could in no way even fully patrol, let alone defend, due to lack of personnel.

Quote:As for draft dodging, I was a young adult male in the Vietnam era.   Admittedly, that war was very different than the Russian invasion.

Indeed! The Vietnam war was a war of choice. The Viet Cong was not going to invade the United States. In Ukraine, you may have Russians on your doorstep at any moment. Furthermore, only a small fraction of the US population would be drafted. It wasn't as if any particular person evading the draft would materially affect troop strength. They would just draft somebody else. Ukraine OTOH needs every soldier it can find, even more desperately in some MOS. The situation in Ukraine is critical. The Vietnam war had no similar effects on the US population as a whole. Even for those who were drafted the casualty rate in Vietnam was NOTHING like the casualty rate of Ukrainian infantry in the current war. On top of that you would only be in country for 12 months (13 if you were a Marine) more or less. Ukrainian troops nominally are drafted for a 12 month service but that has been extended until the end of "the emergency". Of course, after discharge you are still "in country" and you might get killed anyway, either by Russian soldiers or Russian missiles/drones. No comparison to the US situation in Vietnam is IMO possible.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-23-2026

Things are about to get interesting.  France seized a Russian shadow fleet sanctioned oil tanker.  We’ll see what they do with it.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/crackdown-on-shadow-fleet-escalates-with-seizure-of-ship-carrying-russian-oil-2a93bb2e?st=BHSpTn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Personally, I would vote that they sell the oil and give the proceeds to Ukraine.  I think a typical tanker has 500,000 to 800,000 barrels, so at today’s oil price, that might net about $40 million.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 01-23-2026

(01-23-2026, 04:59 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Things are about to get interesting.  France seized a Russian shadow fleet sanctioned oil tanker.  We’ll see what they do with it.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/crackdown-on-shadow-fleet-escalates-with-seizure-of-ship-carrying-russian-oil-2a93bb2e?st=BHSpTn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Personally, I would vote that they sell the oil and give the proceeds to Ukraine.  I think a typical tanker has 500,000 to 800,000 barrels, so at today’s oil price, that might net about $40 million.

BC

What about giving the tanker to Ukraine?  That's probably at least as much in value.

BBC rieports there have been 42 sanctioned Russian tankers going through the English Channel in the past 12 days.  Even if all UK did was to force them to stay docked (ie, not take the oil), that would get attention fast. 6 have passed bearing a false flag since January 1.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 01-24-2026

Xi Jinping just purged China's top general, Gen. Zhang Youxia (Vice Chair of Central Military Commission), right after he purged Gen. He Weidong (#3 in the military) along with eight other senior officers. Gen. Liu Zhenli (another member of the CMC) is under investigation. The CMC now has just one of the original six generals named to it, General Zhang Shengmin, who has overseen the purges. The only other member of the CMC is Xi himself.

Earlier, Xi had purged admirals, regional military commanders and others. Surface issue is graft and corruption. Of the 44 uniformed officers appointed to the Communist Party's Central Committee, 29 have been purged or are "missing."

Xi’s Purge of China’s Military Brings Its Top General Down - The New York Times
China Ousts Senior General on Corruption Charges - The New York Times

I'd be curious as to anyone's interpretation of these events; how they affect Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan and America.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-28-2026

CSIS has an analysis of the war, which highlights the high cost (on both sides) for minimal territorial changes.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

Quote:Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-28-2026

(01-28-2026, 07:05 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  CSIS has an analysis of the war, which highlights the high cost (on both sides) for minimal territorial changes.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

Quote:Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.

BC

It is just unbelievable that Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties. Even if the estimate is somewhat exaggerated the Russian people would be seeing 8 in 1000 people injured. If the number  325,000 killed  is close to correct, 2 in 1000 Russians have been killed in Ukraine. Yet the Russian people do nothing. Granted, the losses are mostly happening to minorities and the dregs of society that "Real Russians" don't associate with. Consider however the company-grade officer losses that accompany such attrition. "Real Russians" are dying too. The legendary Russian fatalism and willingness to suffer is fully in evidence. This mind-set coupled with the "If not Putin, who?" mindset has paralyzed Russian politics. In the US, when our government kills two US citizens demonstrations break out everywhere. In Russia, the government kills 325,000 and crickets.
 
I must admit I expected a more serious effort from the Russians this winter, taking advantage of the bad weather to inhibit Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and FPV attack drones. That has just not happened. Zelenskyy asserted Russia just didn't have the capability for such offensives. Either he was correct or Putin decided that his missile/drone barrage was a better bet to do the job and cause a Ukrainian collapse. It remains to be seen if he is correct. We have at least 1.5 months of very low temperatures ahead in Ukraine. If Ukraine is still standing when the spring fighting season opens Putin will have to put up or shut up.
 
 Of course, Putin may still believe the administration will eventually deliver to him the peace he seeks. We shall see. If the US and the EU do not prematurely remove sanctions, Russia just might have to accept a cease-fire that falls short of victory. I don't think Putin is near ready to do that now, but the day may come. OTOH if that day does't come fairly soon, IMO within the next 6 months, Ukraine will indeed collapse. Of course, I thought that last year at this time :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-02-2026

Apparently there is a deal for India to stop buying Russian oil in exchange for tariff relief.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-will-cut-tariffs-on-india-to-18-in-trade-deal-trump-says-6045d0f3?st=yuPL9J&reflink=article_copyURL_share

I think that this (if it holds) is good all around. I would, however, be concerned that India might import oil of, shall we say, uncertain provenance and not ask too many questions as to where it was extracted from.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - slide - 02-03-2026

(02-02-2026, 04:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Apparently there is a deal for India to stop buying Russian oil in exchange for tariff relief.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-will-cut-tariffs-on-india-to-18-in-trade-deal-trump-says-6045d0f3?st=yuPL9J&reflink=article_copyURL_share

I think that this (if it holds) is good all around. I would, however, be concerned that India might import oil of, shall we say, uncertain provenance and not ask too many questions as to where it was extracted from.

BC

Venezuela is the rumored new source.  I am not sure of India's refineries cracking capabilities in terms of heavy crude

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 02-03-2026

(02-03-2026, 11:32 AM)slide Wrote:  Venezuela is the rumored new source.  I am not sure of India's refineries cracking capabilities in terms of heavy crude

India has very significant refining capability for heavy crude. Their non-aligned posture made them an ideal location to take crude that nobody else wanted (sometimes from dodgy sources) and turn it into finished petroleum products that could be sold to anyone at a handsome profit. Previously they were "laundering" Russian oil that was "light" crude in the main, but they are equally able to "launder" Venezuelan heavy crude extracted from Venezuela by US pressure. It is just a new form of fracking :-). Of course this assumes the price is right.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - slide - 02-03-2026

(02-03-2026, 11:52 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(02-03-2026, 11:32 AM)slide Wrote:  Venezuela is the rumored new source.  I am not sure of India's refineries cracking capabilities in terms of heavy crude

India has very significant refining capability for heavy crude. Their non-aligned posture made them an ideal location to take crude that nobody else wanted (sometimes from dodgy sources) and turn it into finished petroleum products that could be sold to anyone at a handsome profit. Previously they were "laundering" Russian oil that was "light" crude in the main, but they are equally able to "launder" Venezuelan heavy crude extracted from Venezuela by US pressure. It is just a new form of fracking :-). Of course this assumes the price is right.

thank you for the continuing education.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 02-03-2026

And the proceeds from the sale of VZ oil will be deposited...we can guess where.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-03-2026

(02-03-2026, 10:47 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  And the proceeds from the sale of VZ oil will be deposited...we can guess where.

In Qatar, I believe.  

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-completes-first-venezuelan-oil-sales-valued-500-million-us-official-says-2026-01-14/

Quote:The main account is located in Qatar, according to an industry source familiar with the plan, who said the country represented a neutral venue where funds can move with U.S. approval and without risk of seizure. Semafor first reported that the sales had been completed.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 02-04-2026

(02-03-2026, 11:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(02-03-2026, 10:47 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  And the proceeds from the sale of VZ oil will be deposited...we can guess where.

In Qatar, I believe.  

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-completes-first-venezuelan-oil-sales-valued-500-million-us-official-says-2026-01-14/

Quote:The main account is located in Qatar, according to an industry source familiar with the plan, who said the country represented a neutral venue where funds can move with U.S. approval and without risk of seizure. Semafor first reported that the sales had been completed.

BC

I didn't have Qatar in the pool, tbh...

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 02-04-2026

Despite a non-treaty protecting it by the US, Qatar does not have an extradition treaty with the US. It would be a nice place to retire and play golf if you have legal problems with your original country. You’d want to have a business partner there and lots of money at hand, though.

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