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Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-11-2012
A few things to keep in mind- if Oregon is ranked first in the BCS, then the Rose Bowl gets first pick as replacement since they're losing the #1 team. If Kansas State is first, then the Fiesta Bowl gets first pick. So we should root for Kansas State to pick up some #1 votes.
Also, I'm not sure we'll be a top 14 team. Even after our big win against Oregon State, #11 ranked, we still only moved up to #13 in the Coaches poll. If we lose to Oregon and beat UCLA, I have a hard time envisioning us within range. For comparison, USC is the highest ranked 3 loss team in the AP poll and they're #21 (can't find the full Coaches poll, was just released but not fully listed anywhere on the internet at the moment).
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-11-2012
A few things to keep in mind- if Oregon is ranked first in the BCS, then the Rose Bowl gets first pick as replacement since they're losing the #1 team. If Kansas State is first, then the Fiesta Bowl gets first pick. So we should root for Kansas State to pick up some #1 votes.
Also, I'm not sure we'll be a top 14 team. Even after our big win against Oregon State, #11 ranked, we still only moved up to #13 in the Coaches poll. If we lose to Oregon and beat UCLA, I have a hard time envisioning us within range. For comparison, USC is the highest ranked 3 loss team in the AP poll and they're #21 (can't find the full Coaches poll, was just released but not fully listed anywhere on the internet at the moment).
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-11-2012
So here is who we're rooting for next week
Maryland vs FSU
NC State vs Clemson
(get ready for the meat of the SEC OOC schedule....)
Western Carolina vs Alabama
Jacksonville State vs Florida
Wofford vs Southern Carolina
Georgia Southern vs Georgia
Sam Houston State vs Texas A&M
West VA vs Oklahoma
Ole Miss vs LSU
Minnesota vs Nebraska
Wake Forest vs Notre Dame
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-11-2012
So here is who we're rooting for next week
Maryland vs FSU
NC State vs Clemson
(get ready for the meat of the SEC OOC schedule....)
Western Carolina vs Alabama
Jacksonville State vs Florida
Wofford vs Southern Carolina
Georgia Southern vs Georgia
Sam Houston State vs Texas A&M
West VA vs Oklahoma
Ole Miss vs LSU
Minnesota vs Nebraska
Wake Forest vs Notre Dame
Re: BCS possibilities - kuz - 11-11-2012
(11-11-2012, 09:44 AM)Farm93 link Wrote:Today it is fairly clear. Bama will take one BCS Bowl slot, Georgia will take one too.Not sure about that. Georgia will probably lose to Bama in the SEC championship game. Does a BCS Bowl take two-loss Georgia over one-loss Florida (or two-loss LSU/Texas A&M/South Carolina)? Either way, there'll definitely be two SEC teams.
Re: BCS possibilities - kuz - 11-11-2012
(11-11-2012, 09:44 AM)Farm93 link Wrote:Today it is fairly clear. Bama will take one BCS Bowl slot, Georgia will take one too.Not sure about that. Georgia will probably lose to Bama in the SEC championship game. Does a BCS Bowl take two-loss Georgia over one-loss Florida (or two-loss LSU/Texas A&M/South Carolina)? Either way, there'll definitely be two SEC teams.
Re: BCS possibilities - Kathy - 11-11-2012
(11-11-2012, 08:05 AM)Farm93 link Wrote:How is it possible that Texas A&M is doing so well in the SEC?Because the Aggies are so much better than you were led to believe.
:D :D :D :D :D
Gig 'em!
Re: BCS possibilities - Kathy - 11-11-2012
(11-11-2012, 08:05 AM)Farm93 link Wrote:How is it possible that Texas A&M is doing so well in the SEC?Because the Aggies are so much better than you were led to believe.
:D :D :D :D :D
Gig 'em!
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-11-2012
(11-11-2012, 10:57 AM)kuz link Wrote:[quote author=Farm93 link=topic=6811.msg51852#msg51852 date=1352652267]Not sure about that. Georgia will probably lose to Bama in the SEC championship game. Does a BCS Bowl take two-loss Georgia over one-loss Florida (or two-loss LSU/Texas A&M/South Carolina)? Either way, there'll definitely be two SEC teams.
Today it is fairly clear. Bama will take one BCS Bowl slot, Georgia will take one too.
[/quote]
Right sure, super lucky Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia. Whatever, some over-hyped SEC team from that SEC block.
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-11-2012
(11-11-2012, 10:57 AM)kuz link Wrote:[quote author=Farm93 link=topic=6811.msg51852#msg51852 date=1352652267]Not sure about that. Georgia will probably lose to Bama in the SEC championship game. Does a BCS Bowl take two-loss Georgia over one-loss Florida (or two-loss LSU/Texas A&M/South Carolina)? Either way, there'll definitely be two SEC teams.
Today it is fairly clear. Bama will take one BCS Bowl slot, Georgia will take one too.
[/quote]
Right sure, super lucky Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia. Whatever, some over-hyped SEC team from that SEC block.
Re: BCS possibilities - Rando - 11-11-2012
Oh jeez look at that SEC schedule. Aren't cupcakes supposed to be like preseason games week one?
Re: BCS possibilities - FarmBoy - 11-12-2012
Uncle Ted picks us to go to the Rose Bowl: http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/49099/pac-12-bowl-projections-week-12-2
Before the BCS standing came out yesterday, I was thinking we actually stand a BETTER chance of going to the Rose Bowl if we lose to Oregon than if we beat them. If we beat them, we will need to beat UCLA and then a likely rematch with U.SC to go to the Rose Bowl. Lose either of those games, and the dream is over. And I think beating the Trojans a second time, with Holmes back in the line up, will be very difficult. If we lose to Oregon, then we need to beat UCLA and hope that the Rose committee sticks with Pac vs. B1G tradition, which sounds probable, despite an admittedly attractive Notre Dame.
However, right now we're barely hanging into the top-14. I agree with dabigv that losing to Oregon (especially if we're blown out) will be hard to recover from. And I think UCLA loses to U.SC, so beating them may not hold much cache prior to the final poll. Probably not enough to bring us back by whatever we're dropped after Oregon. So, it's beat Oregon, or go Bowling before New Year.
I'm feeling worse about that UW loss than I did the night of the debacle...
Re: BCS possibilities - Griffins78 - 11-12-2012
So did Texas A&M suddenly become a "great" SEC team simply by joining the SEC (they were ranked 38th at the end of last year and about that in per-season) OR is the mythic strength of the SEC fabricated? Everyone said the former Big-12 Texas A&M would be a SEC punching bag.
Seriously, the fabricated rankings that has 6 SEC teams ranked in the top 10 means even when they lose they continue to get ranked highly. For consensus #1 Alabama to get beat by #15 Texas A&M - does that mean:
1. Alabama wasn't as good as everyone thought (then their drop from #1 to #4 should be bigger)
2. OR, if Texas A&M got lucky (then their rise from #15 to #8 isn't merited)
3. BUT, if Texas A&M suddenly became a top SEC team, beating the best SEC team (then perhaps the entire SEC is over rated)
Re: BCS possibilities - Cardinal96 - 11-12-2012
The more I think about it, I think the only chance we have of going to the Rose Bowl is to win out. If we lose to Oregon and then beat UCLA, there is no guarantee we will be back in the BCS top 14. We are only 13 now and it would depend on what happens the last few weeks. If we are in the BCS top 14, let's assume Oregon wins out and is in the title game. If Kansas State also wins out, that means the Rose Bowl would have the choice of an undefeated or 1-loss Notre Dame team versus a 3-loss Stanford team. Pac 12 affiliations aside, I think we lose to Notre Dame on that one.Â
I can't get myself upset about that. A 9-3 record would be a very successful season. That said, it isn't deserving of a BCS bowl. We had no business losing to Washington on the road and that loss has consequences. More importantly, I want to earn a BCS bowl. No matter how good we have been the past two seasons, we made a BCS bowl by being the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 North. I want to go to the Rose Bowl the old-fashioned way if we are to make it.
Re: BCS possibilities - pcgoode - 11-12-2012
The Rose Bowl would be great, but may not be in the cards this year. The thing that has me much more excited is the development we've seen in some of the younger players this - particularly Carter, Reynolds and Hogan. The future is starting to look much brighter than I thought would be the case earlier in the season.
Re: BCS possibilities - washingtonismoney - 11-12-2012
To take this thread tangential, Reynolds has done the noisy stuff (PICK SIXES FOR ALL) but I think Richards has been much better and more consistent. Not that it undermines your point at all-- it supports it -- but I don't think Richards has gotten a ton of credit. Which he deserves. A brobdingnagian jump from year one.
In additional young-player-kudos: Henry Anderson is basically having the exact season Ben Gardner did last year, except Anderson tips passes at the line.
Re: BCS possibilities - Bruce Wang - 11-12-2012
(11-12-2012, 09:35 AM)NYCCardinalFan link Wrote:More importantly, I want to earn a BCS bowl. No matter how good we have been the past two seasons, we made a BCS bowl by being the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 North. I want to go to the Rose Bowl the old-fashioned way if we are to make it.
I humbly disagree.
If we make it in, there's a likelihood we could get payback on Wisconsin from the last Rose. Stanford can beat every Big10 team including Ohio St.
An undeserved Rose Bowl appearance makes a better impression than a deserved appearance in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.
To sum it up:
Rose is a rose is a rose is a rose.
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-12-2012
The BCS Standings are very soft below 20. Trouble is that the Standings above 10 are also solid.
Rose Bowl as the Pac-12 AQ - That is the best path. Would love to see it happen, but this dream could get crushed on Saturday.
Rose Bowl as the Pac-12 #2 - Seems like getting back into the top 14 will be tight. Best if UCLA beats USC then all Pac-12 programs would be addressed. Oregon would beat OSU, UCLA would beat USC, and Stanford would be UCLA. Might be best if Notre Dame was Oregon's opponent in the BCS CG, so a K-State loss to Texas would be great. The good news is that Texas would be Big12 #3 in the top 14. The bad news is that there might not be space for Stanford.
Other BCS as the only top 14 option - With Florida State and Clemson at 1 loss this path probably will be gone if one of them is not upset this weekend. Losing in that final week to a super ::) SEC team likely will not cause a 2 loss ACC team to fall below a 3 loss Pac-12 team.
Alamo/Holiday/Sun as Pac-12 #2 or Pac-12 #3 - It seems probable now that Stanford will be one of the better non-SEC teams without a BCS invite. Still even with 8 wins the team is essentially already at our collective preseason expectations.
Still, what a treat to get to entertain Rose, BCS Bowl & Pac-12 CG possibilities in mid-November
Re: BCS possibilities - 3card - 11-12-2012
I've been looking the current BCS rankings in detail and Im feeling really good about staying in the Top 14 if Oregon wins out and we beat UCLA. I'd rather see us win out and take the Pac-12, but just in case we don't...
Currently we're ranked 13th with a .5705 BCS average. Were closer in average BCS average to #8 Texas A&M (.6621) than we are to the team just below us, #14 Nebraska (.4679), so we are a relatively strong #13 right now. The computers like us a lot more than the humans do (#11 computer average, 13th in both polls) and an Oregon loss and UCLA win is unlikely to change our computer rankings much. Computers are 1/3 of the total, but the strong computer rankings help a lot as you move down the rankings. I took a deeper look at the teams around us in the rankings.
*Â There are only 6 possible teams that I think could pass us and wed have to be passed by two teams to finish 15th (obviously) if we don't pass anyone else
*Â Nebraska has to win out and pull off an upset in their championship game (they play Wisconsin who beat them earlier in a close game at Nebraska), but if they win out theyll probably jump us
*Â Texas and Michigan would have to win out and pull off big road upsets (@KSU and @Ohio State respectively), but if they do they will probably jump us
* Wed have to get demolished in the polls to get passed by any of 3 other teams: the Louisville/Rutgers winner, LA Tech, or the TxTech/OkSt winner. They are all right around 3-loss $C currently in the polls, so thats likely about where wed end up with another loss. The computers hate Louisville, Rutgers and LA Tech. I would worry most about OkSt if they beat OU and TxTech.
*Â The poll ordering vs. the teams listed above will be influenced by how we do on Saturday. We should be the top-ranked 3 loss team with 2 of our 3 losses coming to undefeated teams on the road and the 3rd loss on the road to a top 25 team (if Wash. wins out) and of course, a win against USC who is currently right in that same region in the polls.
*Â The other Pac-10 teams (USC, UCLA, and OSU) dont factor into this scenario. All 3 will have at least one more loss if Oregon wins out and we beat UCLA.
* We are very close in points to the 3 teams above us and they all have very tough games remaining. FSU still plays Florida, Clemson plays S. Carolina and OK has 3 tough games: @WV, Ok State and then @TCU. FSU & Clemson play their tough games at the end of the season (its bad in the polls to lose late) and any of the 3 could get blown out which would really help us pass them.
* Im feeling confident because I think well end up passing one of the 3 teams above and unless really crazy things happen, well only get passed by one of the 6 teams that could pass us. All depends on the result this Saturday and how close it is.
* One other note Ive seen a lot of debate about whether the Rose would take us over Notre Dame. Id be shocked if they don't. The Rose Bowl cares far more about tradition than any other bowl. I just cant imagine them blowing up a Big 10 / Pac-12 matchup, even for an undefeated Notre Dame. Jerry Palm and the other most knowledgeable commentators who don't have us in the Rose project us losing to UCLA or think we don't finish in the top 14.
Re: BCS possibilities - Bruce Wang - 11-13-2012
Collin Klein is on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week so that means Baylor will beat Kansas State.
Hey I just noticed that the Big 12 has 10 teams! Weird considering the Big 10 has 12 teams!