2026 Stanford Football predictions

2026 Stanford Football predictions - Printable Version

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RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - JohnR34231 - 08-07-2026

Happens to the best of them.
Remember Michigan and Appalachian State some time ago.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Maple Leaf - 08-08-2026

My prediction is 6-6 with one upset and I see the potential for two upsets neither of which will be miami or nd.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - TonyLima - 08-08-2026

(08-06-2026, 12:55 PM)Embo Wrote:
(08-06-2026, 12:54 AM)old spanish trail Wrote:
(08-05-2026, 06:30 PM)martyup Wrote: Has anyone considered the Elon might beat us? They lace up their cleats and snap on their chin straps just like we do. They will be fired up for this game.

No.

See Davis, University of California, 2005. I was there. JFC.

Also The Big Game, 1982. I was there.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Jamesy - 08-08-2026

(08-06-2026, 12:55 PM)Embo Wrote:
(08-06-2026, 12:54 AM)old spanish trail Wrote:
(08-05-2026, 06:30 PM)martyup Wrote: Has anyone considered the Elon might beat us? They lace up their cleats and snap on their chin straps just like we do. They will be fired up for this game.

No.

See Davis, University of California, 2005. I was there. JFC.

I was there too. I saw nick Sanchez make a game sealing interception, promptly left the stadium and never bothered to read about the game afterwards.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - 82lsju - 08-08-2026

(08-08-2026, 03:15 PM)TonyLima Wrote:
(08-06-2026, 12:55 PM)Embo Wrote:
(08-06-2026, 12:54 AM)old spanish trail Wrote:
(08-05-2026, 06:30 PM)martyup Wrote: Has anyone considered the Elon might beat us? They lace up their cleats and snap on their chin straps just like we do. They will be fired up for this game.

No.

See Davis, University of California, 2005. I was there. JFC.
Also The Big Game, 1982. I was there.

I was at both of those games, maybe a "lesser" upset, losing to Sac St in 2023.

some other "unexpected" losses

losing to WSU after being ahead 42-14 in 1984 (and I was there for that game)
losing to OSU in 33-31 in 1979 which included us giving up two points on a safety on kick return (I was not at that game), that was OSU's only win that year, and yes the rule was changed the next year but that did not help us in 1979
less so, but losing to UH last year

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Papa John - 08-09-2026

For better or worse (mostly worse), here are the preseason win probabilities for each of Stanford's games according to something called ESPN Analytics:

Hawaii (home) 60.6%
Miami (home) 5.9%
Duke (away) 22.5%
Georgia Tech (home) 39.7%
Wake Forest (away) 20%
Notre Dame (away) 1.6%
Elon (home) 95.5%
NC State (home) 38%
Louisville (away) 9.8%
Virginia Tech (away) 15.2%
Cal (away) 32.1%
SMU (home) 20.6%

I'm sticking to my "optimistic" prediction of 4 wins: Hawaii, Elon, Cal (because I must) and an upset somewhere along the way.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - JohnR34231 - 08-09-2026

(08-09-2026, 12:26 PM)Papa John Wrote: For better or worse (mostly worse), here are the preseason win probabilities for each of Stanford's games according to something called ESPN Analytics:

Hawaii (home) 60.6%
Miami (home) 5.9%
Duke (away) 22.5%
Georgia Tech (home) 39.7%
Wake Forest (away) 20%
Notre Dame (away) 1.6%
Elon (home) 95.5%
NC State (home) 38%
Louisville (away) 9.8%
Virginia Tech (away) 15.2%
Cal (away) 32.1%
SMU (home) 20.6%

I'm sticking to my "optimistic" prediction of 4 wins: Hawaii, Elon, Cal (because I must) and an upset somewhere along the way.

So we are basically favored in two games and the other ten aren't even particularly close. Oh well. I'm still hoping for five wins.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - needle - 08-09-2026

(08-09-2026, 12:26 PM)Papa John Wrote: For better or worse (mostly worse), here are the preseason win probabilities for each of Stanford's games according to something called ESPN Analytics:

Hawaii (home) 60.6%
Miami (home) 5.9%
Duke (away) 22.5%
Georgia Tech (home) 39.7%
Wake Forest (away) 20%
Notre Dame (away) 1.6%
Elon (home) 95.5%
NC State (home) 38%
Louisville (away) 9.8%
Virginia Tech (away) 15.2%
Cal (away) 32.1%
SMU (home) 20.6%

I'm sticking to my "optimistic" prediction of 4 wins: Hawaii, Elon, Cal (because I must) and an upset somewhere along the way.

I like Stanford's chances against Duke. The biggest reason is that the team has a bye week after Miami, so there will be two weeks to gameplan.

Also, Duke starts out with two tough games, Tulane (in the CFP last year) and Illinois (No. 9 in B1G pre-season media poll), and it's tough to get fired up and play your best three weeks in a row.

Finally, Duke's starting QB is very possibly Walker Eget, who Stanford played last year (his stat line as a San Jose State Spartan in that game: 36/58 473, 3 TDs and 0 INTs). Familiarity with a QB should only help, even if he will be playing in a different offensive system.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Papa John - 08-12-2026

According to ESPN, Stanford's WR Zion Robinson is one of 51 freshmen nationally--and #5 in the ACC--poised to make an impact (you'll need to scroll down a ways to read his brief write-up).

Also ACC Huddle visited Stanford and aired the "Road Trip" program recently. If you have an ESPN subscription, you can check it out. I haven't watched the entire episode, but it's mostly light-hearted, get-to-know-the-team, talk-to-famous-alumni stuff.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Spiny_Norman - 08-14-2026

Looks like Stanford will play a chunk of the season without Caden High, who was almost certainly slotted as a starting WR. He was the returning player with the most pass receptions for Stanford last year.

https://www.on3.com/sites/cardinal-sports-report/news/can-stanford-weather-the-storm-until-caden-high-returns/

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - needle - 08-15-2026

The Ourlads video linked below has lots of good intel from Ben Parker, Stanford beat reporter with Rivals.

If, like me, you don't know how to feed a video into your favorite AI client, here's a human-created rundown:

+Injuries on the O-line to Prongos, Fattig, Mejia (out for season) and transfer Adeyemi (out indefinitely). Prongos is out but that may be a precaution, and it seems possible he'll be ready for Hawaii.

+Expected starting center: transfer Aidan Kilstrom.

+Among the frosh, Dre Pollard and Zion Robinson are the top two. Pollard may return punts.

+In a crowded WR room, with High's injury the top guy is likely transfer Nico Brown.

+Davis Warren (another transfer, btw) is the clear starter, with a true battle between Charlie Mirer and Dylan Rizk for the top back-up role.

So, definitely a theme of transfers expected / needed to make major contributions on offense. We shall see.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxIjAL93AtU

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Spiny_Norman - 08-15-2026

(08-15-2026, 10:38 AM)needle Wrote: +Injuries on the O-line to Prongos, Fattig, Mejia (out for season) and transfer Adeyemi (out indefinitely). Prongos is out but that may be a precaution, and it seems possible he'll be ready for Hawaii.

Mejia missed all of last season with injury as well. Really frustrating for him. Fattig started the first 3 games last year before he was injured and lost for the season.

Whatever success Stanford might have this season has to start with improved OL play. Stanford was again among the worst in the country last season in Sacks Allowed (129th out of 134).

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - JohnR34231 - 08-15-2026

(08-15-2026, 12:42 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(08-15-2026, 10:38 AM)needle Wrote: +Injuries on the O-line to Prongos, Fattig, Mejia (out for season) and transfer Adeyemi (out indefinitely). Prongos is out but that may be a precaution, and it seems possible he'll be ready for Hawaii.

Mejia missed all of last season with injury as well. Really frustrating for him. Fattig started the first 3 games last year before he was injured and lost for the season.

Whatever success Stanford might have this season has to start with improved OL play. Stanford was again among the worst in the country last season in Sacks Allowed (129th out of 134).

The season is two weeks away from starting and we have all those O-line injuries already?
SMH.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - JJJ - 08-15-2026

All I heard was “the season is two weeks away”!!! :)

SkiBum80 - SkiBum80 - 08-17-2026

(08-15-2026, 01:07 PM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(08-15-2026, 12:42 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(08-15-2026, 10:38 AM)needle Wrote: +Injuries on the O-line to Prongos, Fattig, Mejia (out for season) and transfer Adeyemi (out indefinitely). Prongos is out but that may be a precaution, and it seems possible he'll be ready for Hawaii.

Mejia missed all of last season with injury as well. Really frustrating for him. Fattig started the first 3 games last year before he was injured and lost for the season.

Whatever success Stanford might have this season has to start with improved OL play. Stanford was again among the worst in the country last season in Sacks Allowed (129th out of 134).

The season is two weeks away from starting and we have all those O-line injuries already?
SMH.

On the Offense, after QB, I think our OLine is most critical room. If OLine banged up and / or scuffling it won’t matter how good Micah or the talented receivers, nothing will go anywhere with persistence.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Spiny_Norman - 08-18-2026

Here's a list where Stanford would rather not be ahead of Cal. Longest AP poll drought among Power 4 teams. Every other Power 4 school has been ranked for at least one week in the 2020s.

1. Rutgers 208 polls (most recently in the AP poll in 2012)
2. West Virginia 107 polls (2019)
3. Stanford 105 polls (2019)
4. Maryland 104 polls (2019)
5. Cal 102 polls (2019)

https://www.instagram.com/p/DPyx-zkgIEH/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==&igsi=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - Mick - 08-18-2026

Odd that four of the Bottom Five (as it were) were all last in the polls in 2019. They have little else in common.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - SkiBum80 - 08-18-2026

(08-18-2026, 09:39 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Here's a list where Stanford would rather not be ahead of Cal. Longest AP poll drought among Power 4 teams. Every other Power 4 school has been ranked for at least one week in the 2020s.

1. Rutgers 208 polls (most recently in the AP poll in 2012)
2. West Virginia 107 polls (2019)
3. Stanford 105 polls (2019)
4. Maryland 104 polls (2019)
5. Cal 102 polls (2019)

https://www.instagram.com/p/DPyx-zkgIEH/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==&igsi=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

So given about 18 polls a year, and assuming "best" case scenario where Rutgers gets onto the poll quickly this year, and West Virginia at some point in next few years, then it might take only 6 more years of mediocrity until we could be #1?

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - rogpodge - 08-18-2026

(08-18-2026, 10:54 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote:
(08-18-2026, 09:39 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Here's a list where Stanford would rather not be ahead of Cal. Longest AP poll drought among Power 4 teams. Every other Power 4 school has been ranked for at least one week in the 2020s.

1. Rutgers 208 polls (most recently in the AP poll in 2012)
2. West Virginia 107 polls (2019)
3. Stanford 105 polls (2019)
4. Maryland 104 polls (2019)
5. Cal 102 polls (2019)

https://www.instagram.com/p/DPyx-zkgIEH/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==&igsi=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

So given about 18 polls a year, and assuming "best" case scenario where Rutgers gets onto the poll quickly this year, and West Virginia at some point in next few years, then it might take only 6 more years of mediocrity until we could be #1?

https://edgelabs.bet/cfb/power-ratings

Warning: betting site. Power ranking has Stanford at 111, or -8.9 points at a neutral site against an average team. Strangely, Stanford is 32nd in talent on paper.

RE: 2026 Stanford Football predictions - SkiBum80 - 08-18-2026

(08-18-2026, 03:03 PM)rogpodge Wrote:
(08-18-2026, 10:54 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote:
(08-18-2026, 09:39 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Here's a list where Stanford would rather not be ahead of Cal. Longest AP poll drought among Power 4 teams. Every other Power 4 school has been ranked for at least one week in the 2020s.

1. Rutgers 208 polls (most recently in the AP poll in 2012)
2. West Virginia 107 polls (2019)
3. Stanford 105 polls (2019)
4. Maryland 104 polls (2019)
5. Cal 102 polls (2019)

https://www.instagram.com/p/DPyx-zkgIEH/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==&igsi=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

So given about 18 polls a year, and assuming "best" case scenario where Rutgers gets onto the poll quickly this year, and West Virginia at some point in next few years, then it might take only 6 more years of mediocrity until we could be #1?

https://edgelabs.bet/cfb/power-ratings

Warning: betting site. Power ranking has Stanford at 111, or -8.9 points at a neutral site against an average team. Strangely, Stanford is 32nd in talent on paper.

So based on their prediction model, we best not schedule a trip to Florida, as all of Miami, Florida, Florida St, South Fla, UCF, Fla Intl and Fla Atlantic rated better than us. (Also Miami of OH rated higher just for ironic consistency). California not much friendlier. Although they rank us a bit better than San Jose State, which is maybe just a bit of a tease considering we don't have them on our schedule this year.
As you say, our On Paper ranking is far better, suggesting we'd be better to play our games out in a lecture hall competitively writing out final exams in blue books.

Another tidbit in their prediction model, they have us at only 3.4 wins.
Which means for the 136 FBS teams in their model, there are only 3 other teams with less predicted wins than us.
So basically, they are complementing our strength of schedule! Thanks guys!