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Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Printable Version

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RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Goose - 07-02-2020

(07-01-2020, 09:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  Let's remember.  The SF Bay Area is looking amazing on COVID containment on a relative basis.
Yes, we are doing just great enough to fail. Cases are going up. They aren't going up as fast as in Arizona, Florida, or Texas, but they are going up. Exponential spread is fatal if the exponent is > 1. It is fatal faster if it is >> 1. People in those other states can (and do) say "See, even the stuck-up Bay Area can't make it work".
Quote:If you think the items you are noting are representative of the problems in the USA, I would submit you have a sampling problem.



In many places in the USA people are eating indoors in booths mere feet apart.

People roam the streets and stores convinced that masks are not needed and in some way infringe on their constitutional rights.

Yes, these places who opened up ridiculously fast before they have even peaked are crashing. This was to be expected, and possibly the population will learn something from that. However, we in the Bay Area, who (allegedly) had flattened the curve were not successful in controlling the increase in cases when we started to reopen. Yesterday Santa Clara County had 202 cases (Worldometers). The entire nation of Italy, who is much more "opened up" that Santa Clara was, had 182. That is the problem that IMHO is convincing people in the Bay Area we just aren't going to succeed.

Yes, other places are a disaster. I believe that places like Arizona saw New York blow up and drew the erroneous conclusion that because they weren't blowing up at the same time that they never would. They simply didn't believe in/understand latency. This was greatly helped along by the POTUS and others who dearly hoped that it was true and that the rest of the country was safe. Well, now the people of Arizona know. Maybe that will change their thinking.

The people who refuse to wear masks/social distance and that it is their "constitutional right" to behave that way are a two-level problem. The discussion regarding whether it is their right belongs in a courtroom. The more important issue is their desire to not comply. Take that desire away and the issue becomes moot. It would have been nice if they were effectively convinced of this. That is where the mixed messaging and disregard of what happened elsewhere was a big failure. However, lots of death in your County may fix that. Sad it has to be that way, but at this point, for these people, that may be how it has to go. However, that won't help if it appears that reopening while keeping the case load reasonable (containing the disease) isn't possible in the US. That is the more serious danger IMHO.

RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - BostonCard - 07-02-2020

A relative basis is not a good measure. The only thing that matters is how the Bay Area is doing vis a vis an R of 1.  If it’s above one, it will eventually spiral out of control; if it is below 1, it will stay under control. That we are closer to 1 right now than other places only means the peak will be later.  But we will still get there.

BC

RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Goose - 07-02-2020

(07-02-2020, 01:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  A relative basis is not a good measure. The only thing that matters is how the Bay Area is doing vis a vis an R of 1.  If it’s above one, it will eventually spiral out of control; if it is below 1, it will stay under control. That we are closer to 1 right now than other places only means the peak will be later.  But we will still get there.

BC

Yep. A slow death rather than a fast one. We really need to figure out what is happening here. Contact tracers should be able to tell us. It it out-of-area people visiting? Is it family gatherings? Where are we leaking?

I think it would really help shed light on how the testing and tracing is going if we knew what percentage of positive tests were from people in quarantine already. If it is a high percentage, we may be making progress. If it isn't, we are REALLY in trouble, because it is community spread time again and our containment has failed.