Stanford Baseball 2023 - Printable Version

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Mick - 05-28-2023

(05-28-2023, 02:34 PM)cardfan77 Wrote:  It’s almost guaranteed that the selection committee will put SCU in Stanford’s regional. I will be shocked if Santa Clara goes somewhere else

D1 baseball predicts #1-#4 seeds to be Stanford, Texas, UC-Irvine and Santa Clara in the Stanford sub-regional.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Canalejas - 05-28-2023

UC San Diego won the Big West baseball championship outright.  But the Tritons are still completing their transition to Division I, so they are not eligible for the NCAA tournament.  I wonder where they would have been placed.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - CTcard - 05-28-2023

(05-26-2023, 10:48 PM)MiniBlueHawkCard Wrote:  Getting run ruled is never a good thing, and as I stated a few days ago 1-2 this week has me worried about a top 8 seed. However, it is worth noting the last two national champions went winless in their conference tournaments (including Mississippi State who got run ruled TWICE and still got to host Stanford in a super regional). Here's to hoping this was a bit of a wake up call and a chance to get some extra rest.

That was an horrendous game on Friday, but horrendous games happen from time to time in baseball. 

RPI fell from 12 to 14 (as of the end of yesterday), so there is some danger of losing a top 8 seed. However, most of the projections I see still have Stanford about 7th. The team that really may have lost out in the Pac 12 tournament is Oregon State. They went 0-2 and probably lost a chance to be a regional host. 

The main worry I take away from that game is the performance of Matthews. Easily his worst performance of the year and eerily reminiscent of Alex Williams a year ago. Williams started to crack during the Pac 12 tournament and went downhill from there. In both cases after a season with a very heavy workload.

Addendum - I see 19-40 Tulane just beat East Carolina for the AAC tournament and automatic bid. Another team now falls out - maybe Arizona or Arizona State?

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - TonyLima - 05-28-2023

We get a regional. Full brackets Monday. How about an all California at Stanford? Santa Clara, UCSB, UC Irvine.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Mick - 05-28-2023

(05-28-2023, 06:50 PM)TonyLima Wrote:  We get a regional. Full brackets Monday. How about an all California at Stanford? Santa Clara, UCSB, UC Irvine.

State of Texas was shut out. Next closest regional is in Oklahoma. Three in South Carolina, two each in Florida and in Alabama. One each in Virginia, Indiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma...and waaaaay out in California.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2023-05-28/sixteen-regional-sites-selected-2023-ncaa-division-i-baseball-championship#:~:text=The%2016%20regional%20sites%2C%20with%20host%20institutions%20and,8%20Fayetteville%2C%20Arkansas%20%E2%80%93%20Arkansas%20%2841-16%29%20More%20items

Eligible teams out west (league winners) are Oregon (Pac 12), Santa Clara (WCC), Fullerton State (Big West), San Jose State (Mountain West)

Selection show is on ESPN2 tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - PVTree - 05-28-2023

8 out of 16 regionals at SEC schools. Fair?

ACC gets 4, then P12 and B12 with 1.

Sun Belt and Missouri Valley also get 1 each.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Canalejas - 05-28-2023

I don’t think Cal State Fullerton has gone by Fullerton State for quite a while now.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - JJJ - 05-28-2023

(05-28-2023, 08:50 PM)PVTree Wrote:  8 out of 16 regionals at SEC schools. Fair?

ACC gets 4, then P12 and B12 with 1.

Sun Belt and Missouri Valley also get 1 each.

Bias? What bias?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/collegebsbhub/status/1663025842379956224?s=46&t=XNaRgdsv48Gp-v_murI6sA[/tweet]

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - cardfan77 - 05-29-2023

So how likely Stanford will snatch one of the top 8 seed spots?

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - CTcard - 05-29-2023

(05-28-2023, 11:49 PM)JJJ Wrote:  

(05-28-2023, 08:50 PM)PVTree Wrote:  8 out of 16 regionals at SEC schools. Fair?

ACC gets 4, then P12 and B12 with 1.

Sun Belt and Missouri Valley also get 1 each.

Bias? What bias?

The SEC really has the RPI formula down. Rack up tons of wins versus the myriad of very weak teams across the south, then through league play your opponents' records (half of RPI) is always really strong. So, the SEC has 6 of the top 8 in RPI and 7 of 11. 

The RPI is terrible for what the NCAA uses it for, but since they obviously use it heavily one has to discuss it in considering tournament seeds. The power ranking I prefer is the Iterative Strength Ranking (ISR) by Boyd Nation who runs Boyds World web site. 
NCAA Division I Baseball -- Iterative Strength Ratings (boydsworld.com)

Auburn seems the most ridiculous choice of host. I guess their 17-13 SEC record is just too good to pass on, despite an overall record of only 34-21-1, 1-2 at the SEC tournament, and an RPI of 19. Poor Tennessee, the only team above 0.500 in the SEC (16-14 then 0-1 in SEC tournament) that didn't get to host. 

Coastal Carolina seemed to get a host spot based on fond memories of their 2016 title. Always hard to compare major conference teams to mid-majors, but consider Sun Belt champ Coastal versus Big South champ Campbell.
Coastal: reg. season champ by 1 game; lost in semifinals of SunBelt tournament, 39-19 overall, RPI #14, ISR #27
Campbell: reg season champ by 1 game, won Big Sourth tournament, 44-13 overall, RPI #13, ISR#19 

A team I don't resent winning a host position but I wonder about is this year's mid-major darling Indiana State of the Missouri Valley Conference. They ran away with the conference regular season title (24-3, won conference by 6 games), won the conference tournament, #9 RPI, #17 ISR. 
However, in their out of conference weekend series they went: 0-3 vs Northeastern, 0-3 vs Kentucky, 3-0 vs Memphis, 0-3 vs Michigan State. Not impressive. They did pick up a couple of midweek wins against Big Ten teams and one vs Vandy, but midweek games are often experimental for major conference teams. 
I suspect they'll have a brobdingnagian fan turnout for their first ever time hosting a regional, but might be a good place to be a #2 seed. 

As for the Pac 12, Oregon State blew their chance at hosting by going 0-2 in the Pac 12 tournament - you have to be in the SEC to do that and still host. 

For Stanford, the best part of their resume is winning the Pac 12 by 5 games. That ought to be enough for a top 8 seed by itself. The downside is mostly an RPI of #15, but that's the way the RPI goes. An hour plus away from the announcement, I will stick with believing they'll get a top 8 seed, but not higher than 7.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - cardfan77 - 05-29-2023

Stanford is the 8th seed and will host Texas A&M, Fullerton, San Jose State.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - BobK - 05-29-2023

Playing San Jose State first

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - cardfan77 - 05-29-2023

Wow only 5 teams from PAC12.

SCU sent to the Arkansas regional along with Arizona and TCU.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Maple Leaf - 05-29-2023

(05-29-2023, 09:22 AM)cardfan77 Wrote:  Stanford is the 8th seed and will host Texas A&M, Fullerton, San Jose State.

Fullerton State, bad memories of past games against them in the NCAA's.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - CTcard - 05-29-2023

John Cohen of Auburn and chair of the selection committee (paraphrased by my cynical self):
"Yeah, the RPI is ridiculous but we have to go by it because we've always gone by it."

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Sam Leopold - 05-29-2023

The west coast got a little bit more short shrift than usual this year.  I can understand Arizona getting into the tournament ---- with their late surge they essentially stole ASU's bid.  But where is USC?  Not even in the first four out, or even mentioned at all on the way out by ESPN in memoriam, mentions that ASU, UC Irvine and Santa Barbara at least received?

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Mick - 05-29-2023

(05-29-2023, 09:36 AM)cardfan77 Wrote:  Wow only 5 teams from PAC12.

SCU sent to the Arkansas regional along with Arizona and TCU.

Arkansas is the #1 seed, followed by TCU, Arizona and SCU in that order.

The organizers didn't do Arkansas any favors. TCU beat Arkansas earlier in the year. TCU also lost 2 of 3 to San Diego, a sub-.500 team that played SCU pretty evenly (each team won a 10-6 game, then USD had a narrow extra innings win over SCU earlier in the year when SCU had some injured regulars). And Arizona beat #2 Tennessee earlier in the year and split with Stanford. Based on the iterative strength ratings, the four teams are:

Arkansas (#6)
TCU (#18)
Arizona (#37)
SCU (#58)

It could get interesting...

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(05-29-2023, 09:37 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote:  

(05-29-2023, 09:22 AM)cardfan77 Wrote:  Stanford is the 8th seed and will host Texas A&M, Fullerton, San Jose State.

Fullerton State, bad memories of past games against them in the NCAA's.

Looks like a good pool for Stanford. Here are the iterative strength ratings:

Stanford (#9)
Texas A&M (#31)
Fullerton (#53)
San Jose State (#93)

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - terry - 05-29-2023

(05-29-2023, 09:37 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote:  Fullerton State, bad memories of past games against them in the NCAA's.

By my count, Stanford has an all-time record of 11-8 against Fullerton in the post-season. That includes 2-5 in regionals, 2-0 in super regionals, and 7-3 in the CWS.

Most recently, Fullerton eliminated Stanford by beating Stanford twice in both the 2017 and 2018 regionals.

Stanford's W/L record against Fullerton in the post-season is:

2018 0-2 Regional at Stanford
2017 0-2 Regional at Stanford
2011 1-0 Regional at Fullerton
2010 0-1 Regional at Fullerton 
2008 2-0 Super Regional at Fullerton
2003 2-1 CWS
2002 1-0 Regional at Stanford
2001 2-0 CWS
1999 1-0 CWS
1995 0-1 CWS
1988 2-1 CWS

Stanford has faced Texas A&M in the post-season once, defeating the Aggies in the 1997 regional.

Stanford has not faced San Jose St. in the post-season.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Mick - 05-29-2023

(05-29-2023, 10:05 AM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  The west coast got a little bit more short shrift than usual this year.  I can understand Arizona getting into the tournament ---- with their late surge they essentially stole ASU's bid.  But where is USC?  Not even in the first four out, or even mentioned at all on the way out by ESPN in memoriam, mentions that ASU, UC Irvine and Santa Barbara at least received?

Interesting to see where the West Coast teams ended up. SCU and Arizona are in Fayetteville. Oregon State is in Baton Rouge. Oregon is in Nashville. Washington is in Stillwater.

And the NCAA selection committee didn't do the Pacific teams any favors. ASU (#40), USC (#41), UC Irvine (#28), UCLA (#47), CSU-Northridge (#49), Santa Barbara (#44) and UCSD (#57) got screwed.

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RE: Stanford Baseball 2023 - Baller4 - 05-29-2023

(05-29-2023, 10:26 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(05-29-2023, 10:05 AM)Sam Leopold Wrote:  The west coast got a little bit more short shrift than usual this year.  I can understand Arizona getting into the tournament ---- with their late surge they essentially stole ASU's bid.  But where is USC?  Not even in the first four out, or even mentioned at all on the way out by ESPN in memoriam, mentions that ASU, UC Irvine and Santa Barbara at least received?

Interesting to see where the West Coast teams ended up. SCU and Arizona are in Fayetteville. Oregon State is in Baton Rouge. Oregon is in Nashville. Washington is in Stillwater.

And the NCAA selection committee didn't do the Pacific teams any favors. ASU (#40), USC (#41), UC Irvine (#28), UCLA (#47), CSU-Northridge (#49), Santa Barbara (#44) and UCSD (#57) got screwed.

I come from the Cal board, and the only reason why I signed on, is that I was accused of being someone else on this board. I respected what Esquer was trying to do at Cal, but when you have an institution and fans who want to win, and wish they can win. Well you get what we have today, which is what they wanted. Esquer was never accepted at Cal, not sure why, regionals in 5 out of the six years he has been at Stanford, plus the Pac titles and CWS appearances. They want that, but don't know how to get it!

I wish you guys luck. Seems like any west coast school is going to have to compete with SEC bias. SC and ASU got screwed. I don't see how WCC gets 2 schools in. Big West better than just 1 school.

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