Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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lex24 - lex24 - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 11:05 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-16-2022, 09:44 AM)lex24 Wrote:  We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings.
<snip>
There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.
<snip>
And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”.

I certainly agree we don't understand the Russian public. However, I think this misunderstanding includes the idea they are particularly patriotic. The Russians certainly have an inferiority complex that goes back a long way. It is important to them that they be considered strong and be respected. This is coupled with a well-founded suspicion that they are not so strong and maybe not deserving of great respect. A leader that will deliver strength and respect is what they seek. It doesn't matter what else is involved.

Most Russians are just trying to survive in the best way possible. They regard it as a given that they don't control anything and are at the mercy of many malign forces, be it the local stores, the local Mafia, or the central government. We here in the USA, and in Europe (to a lesser or greater extent) demand and expect "justice". When we don't get it, either for ourselves or others, we at least try to do something about it and in general expect to at least accomplish something (not that we always do). The Russian people don't expect justice and they don't expect anybody to care that they aren't getting it. If they have to do something that is unfair to their neighbor to get ahead, so what? It is "normal".

Russians are probably more xenophobic than they are patriotic IMHO. They knew Stalin was a bastard, but he could tell them that the Germans were bastards AND they weren't Russians. Of course, neither was Stalin, but that is just the government, and everybody knows they lie. It is war. Do what you have to in order to survive. Lots of us won't, but that is normal. The Ukrainians welcomed the Germans because they were not Russians. Unfortunately, they were bastards, but it took a while to find that out.

I said Nationalistic.  Not patriotic.  They are not the same thing.

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RE: lex24 - Genuine Realist - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 12:27 PM)lex24 Wrote:  

(04-16-2022, 11:05 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-16-2022, 09:44 AM)lex24 Wrote:  We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings.
<snip>
There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.
<snip>
And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”.

I certainly agree we don't understand the Russian public. However, I think this misunderstanding includes the idea they are particularly patriotic. The Russians certainly have an inferiority complex that goes back a long way. It is important to them that they be considered strong and be respected. This is coupled with a well-founded suspicion that they are not so strong and maybe not deserving of great respect. A leader that will deliver strength and respect is what they seek. It doesn't matter what else is involved.

Most Russians are just trying to survive in the best way possible. They regard it as a given that they don't control anything and are at the mercy of many malign forces, be it the local stores, the local Mafia, or the central government. We here in the USA, and in Europe (to a lesser or greater extent) demand and expect "justice". When we don't get it, either for ourselves or others, we at least try to do something about it and in general expect to at least accomplish something (not that we always do). The Russian people don't expect justice and they don't expect anybody to care that they aren't getting it. If they have to do something that is unfair to their neighbor to get ahead, so what? It is "normal".

Russians are probably more xenophobic than they are patriotic IMHO. They knew Stalin was a bastard, but he could tell them that the Germans were bastards AND they weren't Russians. Of course, neither was Stalin, but that is just the government, and everybody knows they lie. It is war. Do what you have to in order to survive. Lots of us won't, but that is normal. The Ukrainians welcomed the Germans because they were not Russians. Unfortunately, they were bastards, but it took a while to find that out.

I said Nationalistic.  Not patriotic.  They are not the same thing.

I'm grateful for all the military information.

My own concerns are strategic. I don't see an endgame here. Putin backing off seems impossible. So does a Ukrainean surrender. The conflict descending into a war of attrition in the manner of Afghanistan and Vietnam is out of the question.

So how does this end? My best guess is that Putin is hoping that the energy squeeze caused by the boycott of Russian oil results in a reversal of Western support for the Ukraine. I'm a believer in climate change, but the policies of those countries that determined to end dependence on fossil fuels without providing for alternative production has always struck me as fanciful. France, which has aggressively adopted nuclearization, can sanction Russian oil with relative impunity. Germany, which is both anti-carbon and anti-nuclear (fantasy) is quite vulnerable. The US is not that vulnerable, but Biden is already paying a political price. 

That said, I don't believe that the energy pressure is going to be quite as effective as Putin may believe. 

Which leads me back to the first question - how does this end?

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RE: lex24 - slide - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 12:43 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:  Which leads me back to the first question - how does this end?

Yergin has a good piece out today on the energy issues you flag.  I'm told his nuke question wrt Germany and the Greens is in play if closure procedure can be reversed.

on end, discussion already begun that West may have to hold nose and offer Putin some face-saving way out (assuming Ukraine's efforts continue to force long-term stalemate and no regime change brought on in Moscow).

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RE: lex24 - Goose - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 12:27 PM)lex24 Wrote:  I said Nationalistic.  Not patriotic.  They are not the same thing.

Agree they are not the same, but exactly what each "means" is a bit unclear. If you run it down on the internet (source of all truth) it says that back in history they were considered the same. Even today Webster's calls them synonyms. The "drift" in the meaning of nationalism is possibly exemplified ins the following statement by Sydney J. Harris.
“The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does.”

I don't think either applies to Russia. Russians want to be proud because they are Russians, independent of their "country". Even today, the Russian Federation contains many ethnic groups that are not Russian. Those people are generally looked down upon. When the Soviet Union broke up, it was assumed by Yeltsin (and just about everybody else) that "Russia" was first among equals. Gorbachev believed all the republics would stay in the USSR because it was "the right thing to do".  He was wrong. Yeltsin believed that the three "Slavic" republics would realize their economic interests were so entangled they could not remain separate. He was wrong. Both of these ideas are very "Russian" attitudes. Ukraine's great "sin" was rejecting that union. The Russians have always considered themselves a superior people apart in their own country, even when their dictator was Georgian and their Army was significantly from the East of the Urals. Putin understands this. He doesn't care what the "minorities" think. So calling it nationalism is a bit misleading IMHO. It isn't the "country", it is racial.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-16-2022

How it ends is Putin calling a loss a victory once his military is no longer capable of offensive operations. Government aligned Russian media is already starting to call the "special military operation" a victory that achieved its aims of punishing Ukraine and calling for troops to be withdrawn. Will be weeks or months, not years.

If he keeps pushing, his military may be unable to hold Crimea or the occupied Donbass, and he will want a negotiated settlement before then that locks in some form of Ukrainian neutrality and some degree of Western sanctions relief.

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RE: lex24 - lex24 - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 01:13 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(04-16-2022, 12:27 PM)lex24 Wrote:  I said Nationalistic.  Not patriotic.  They are not the same thing.

Agree they are not the same, but exactly what each "means" is a bit unclear. If you run it down on the internet (source of all truth) it says that back in history they were considered the same. Even today Webster's calls them synonyms. The "drift" in the meaning of nationalism is possibly exemplified ins the following statement by Sydney J. Harris.
“The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does.”

I don't think either applies to Russia. Russians want to be proud because they are Russians, independent of their "country". Even today, the Russian Federation contains many ethnic groups that are not Russian. Those people are generally looked down upon. When the Soviet Union broke up, it was assumed by Yeltsin (and just about everybody else) that "Russia" was first among equals. Gorbachev believed all the republics would stay in the USSR because it was "the right thing to do".  He was wrong. Yeltsin believed that the three "Slavic" republics would realize their economic interests were so entangled they could not remain separate. He was wrong. Both of these ideas are very "Russian" attitudes. Ukraine's great "sin" was rejecting that union. The Russians have always considered themselves a superior people apart in their own country, even when their dictator was Georgian and their Army was significantly from the East of the Urals. Putin understands this. He doesn't care what the "minorities" think. So calling it nationalism is a bit misleading IMHO. It isn't the "country", it is racial.

Whether it’s ethnicism or nationalism the point remains the same.  The Russian people will fight for Mother Russia.  Putin knows  that.  And will play on it.  Hoping there is some kind of uprising or coup is a pipe dream.  So, figuring a way out of this before it escapes and tens of thousands becomes tens of millions is the very difficult matter facing the West.

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RE: lex24 - ca245 - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 02:12 PM)lex24 Wrote:  Whether it’s ethnicism or nationalism the point remains the same.  The Russian people will fight for Mother Russia.  Putin knows  that.  And will play on it.  Hoping there is some kind of uprising or coup is a pipe dream.  So, figuring a way out of this before it escapes and tens of thousands becomes tens of millions is the very difficult matter facing the West.

The challenge to the West is to make the sentiment among the Russian people one of "Why are we fighting the Ukrainians, when so many of them are our relatives?" and not one of "We are fighting for Mother Russia." And, given the iron grip Putin has over Russia, that sentiment needs to become an overwhelming one, not just a predominant one. A stalemate with increasing numbers of Russian soldiers dying on Ukrainian soil might move popular sentiment in the first direction. But an action such as bombing something on Russian soil -- even if a military facility -- and causing Russian casualties would swing Russian sentiment in the second direction. That is why the West has a tough balancing act.

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RE: lex24 - Goose - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 02:12 PM)lex24 Wrote:  Whether it’s ethnicism or nationalism the point remains the same.  The Russian people will fight for Mother Russia.  Putin knows  that.  And will play on it.  Hoping there is some kind of uprising or coup is a pipe dream.  So, figuring a way out of this before it escapes and tens of thousands becomes tens of millions is the very difficult matter facing the West.

(04-16-2022, 02:32 PM)ca245 Wrote:  The challenge to the West is to make the sentiment among the Russian people one of "Why are we fighting the Ukrainians, when so many of them are our relatives?" and not one of "We are fighting for Mother Russia." And, given the iron grip Putin has over Russia, that sentiment needs to become an overwhelming one, not just a predominant one. A stalemate with increasing numbers of Russian soldiers dying on Ukrainian soil might move popular sentiment in the first direction. But an action such as bombing something on Russian soil -- even if a military facility -- and causing Russian casualties would swing Russian sentiment in the second direction. That is why the West has a tough balancing act.

Perhaps the issue here is the definition of "Mother Russia". It is NOT the current government, or even Putin, it is rather the general image and welfare of the Russian people. Yes, this is a fuzzy concept, even among Russians. Putin has them convinced his military actions improve their general welfare and prestige. He also has a better track record than any of his predecessors, at least for Russians. There is also a lot of "If not Putin, who?" in play. Loyalty is not a big thing in Russia. They will drop Putin like a hot potato if they become convinced he is leading them back to the mid-90s. IMHO if the EU, particularly Germany, can be persuaded to stop all Russian energy imports, Putin has less than 45 days to end this mess, maybe much less. The sanctions are already creating shortages, but things are kind of still kind of OK and everybody still believes it will end soon with Ukraine defeated. If the government can't pay it's pensioners and food is getting hard to find, things will change fast, with Putin replaced by some kind of interim government.

Putin can't just declare victory and quit. Too many Russians have died and the people will figure it out. I also can't see how the Europeans can continue buying Russian gas and oil, even after this ends. Switching to renewable energy aside, they now must realize they can't allow themselves to be in a sole-source situation, particularly if that source isn't "stable". This is going to crater Russia's economy, sooner or later (I hope sooner). The only way they buy even 20% of their needs from Russia is if Putin is gone. The Russians aren't stupid. They will figure it out.

That is the good news and the bad news. The West really has no end game except removing Putin. Putin's best bet is that either Ukraine surrenders unconditionally or the war continues. If Putin tries to take the land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas and seek peace, IMHO Ukraine will not go along unless a very long, bloody war is fought. As long as the wars isn't over, Putin can hope the West will break up from internal strife, Le Pen will win and take France out of NATO, or something like that. Otherwise, he is doomed IMHO.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-16-2022

Holy smokes, the Moskva didn’t have a central fire alarm?!?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/lim49spartan/status/1515145277031817218?s=21&t=eAQpD-qs7e33Q0vdquXYVQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 06:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Holy smokes, the Moskva didn’t have a central fire alarm?!?



BC

Strange indeed that she did not have such a system. That said, I strongly doubt the explosion and resulting fire from a missile strike was in any danger of not being detected. If indeed the Russians had been telling the truth and that some kind of fire started on board the ship that later spread and caused the explosions the lack of a central fire detection/alarm might have made a difference.

The design of the ship with 8 P-1000 Vulkan missiles in box launchers outboard on the deck both port and starboard (16 total) makes any missile hit in that region essentially fatal, alarm or no. Indeed a floating bomb.

The fate of the crew gets stranger and stranger. No Turkish ship report to date. Russians release video showing about 100 sailors that are supposedly the crew of the ship meeting with the head of the Navy. Russia says all the crew was saved, but they are not all in the video. One woman on twitter says her husband was on the ship and confirmed dead. The video seems to show a man who appears to be the Captain of the Moskva. Both the Ukraine and TASS had previously said he was killed. Later reports rephrased say the crew was saved, removing the word "all". Still unclear what is going on.

Interesting article. Needless to say, I think he is exactly correct.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ex-army-chief-west-pay-140808460.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-16-2022

Quote:Putin can't just declare victory and quit. Too many Russians have died and the people will figure it out.

They've gone along with all the other thinly veiled, constantly changing lies, so I really don't see why not. Attack on Kiev was just a feint. Moskva sunk from a fire during a storm. It's not an invasion but a special military operation. The war is the fault of the US and NATO. Etc etc.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 06:37 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

Quote:Putin can't just declare victory and quit. Too many Russians have died and the people will figure it out.

They've gone along with all the other thinly veiled, constantly changing lies, so I really don't see why not. Attack on Kiev was just a feint. Moskva sunk from a fire during a storm. It's not an invasion but a special military operation. The war is the fault of the US and NATO. Etc etc.

Because at the end of the day they are going to be less well off financially, their country will be a pariah, their money will be pretty much worthless, food will be short, and a lot of widows and orphans will want an explanation of where their soldier is. Putin will have failed in his mission to make the average Russian richer, more powerful and more laudable. Russians are very pragmatic. Once you cross the threshold, you go from great to awful very fast. Ask Gorby or Yeltsin.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-16-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1515334084079271945?s=21&t=D_F25mNN3jgV6IWHlfGjDw[/tweet]

Good analogy… the Moskva was like a heavyweight boxer with a killer cross and a glass jaw.

Lots of info there that the Russians DGAF about their sailors.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 04-16-2022

The Russian sailors all got out okay. Here's proof from Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/head-russian-navy-meets-crew-sunken-missile-cruiser-tass-2022-04-16/

Yeah, right. . . .

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RE: lex24 - Mick - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 02:12 PM)lex24 Wrote:  Whether it’s ethnicism or nationalism the point remains the same.  The Russian people will fight for Mother Russia.  Putin knows  that.  And will play on it.  Hoping there is some kind of uprising or coup is a pipe dream.  So, figuring a way out of this before it escapes and tens of thousands becomes tens of millions is the very difficult matter facing the West.

Why is a coup a pipe dream?  Putin's effect on the military is terrible. Why wouldn't the military want to take him out before too many more of them get killed?

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RE: lex24 - Goose - 04-17-2022

(04-16-2022, 11:32 PM)Mick Wrote:  Why is a coup a pipe dream?  Putin's effect on the military is terrible. Why wouldn't the military want to take him out before too many more of them get killed?

The "company grade" military, captains and below, don't have the power to organize anything. They have even less authority and responsibility than NATO officers of the same grade. The field grade officers have a typically Russian conundrum. They are better off than the average Russian. They have a steady job and will get paid regularly. Normally, what they do is pretty safe. Now, Putin has got them into a war. That makes their job a bit of a gamble. They have to actually lead an Army that isn't particularly well organized. Their own troops might kill them. The Ukrainians will certainly kill them if they can. The good news is that casualties among the higher ups create promotional opportunities.

OTOH, if they even talk to a fellow officer about disobeying orders or a coup, they probably will get turned in to the FSB. If that doesn't happen because they found a kindred spirit, now all they have to do is overthrow the government. For just about any officer, that latter course of action has a much lower expected value than taking his chances in a war. Besides, as a Russian he knows his own destiny is not in his control anyway.

The Soviet Union and it's successor in Russia has always been fully aware that the military has the power to overthrow the State if it is concentrated in competent, strong hands. The political leadership has always emphasized the subordinate position of the military and nowhere in the world is "civilian" control of the military taken more seriously than in Russia. Stalin enforced this by simply killing any officers who appeared smart enough to overthrow him. Top generals are always pitted against each other in a zero sum game to ensure nobody gets any ideas. This often leads to less than ideal military leadership, but the political leadership accepts this as a necessary evil. This policy explains to a large extent why Putin did not appoint a "supreme commander" of the Ukraine invasion until it became absolutely clear one was required. The military officers become used to "playing the game", just like officers in NATO do. It is a different game in Russia, to be sure, but a military takeover is very improbable.

This is not to say Putin cannot be ousted. He certainly can, but if he is it will be because the people in general are convinced he is bankrupting the country and has to go. It will be a political coup, not a military one, when and if it happens. The military may/will be involved, but only in deciding whose orders to follow (or just sit there) as they have done in the last two "irregular" changes of Russian government.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-17-2022

Also, going back to Soviet times, the military is deliberately kept weak so that it cannot inflict a coup.  Usually the best and brightest military officers are purged, which shows in their performance in the field, but protected the party (and now the Putin) from a coup.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-17-2022

(04-17-2022, 10:20 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Also, going back to Soviet times, the military is deliberately kept weak so that it cannot inflict a coup.  Usually the best and brightest military officers are purged, which shows in their performance in the field, but protected the party (and now the Putin) from a coup.

BC

I would substitute "divided and poorly led" for "weak". Their military is less than the sum of its apparent parts, but it is not necessarily weak. There are also quite a few very good, bright military officers. They are usually sent to the more technical branches and are never promoted above O-6 (and few make it that far). A few Russian units are actually quite good as a result. Most are not. Many of these officers quit when they realize they are dead-ended and an appropriate business opportunity arises. They aren't "purged" as such, but they do know the situation.

The higher echelons are filled based on "political reliability". Also, since in Russia (and until perhaps recently in Ukraine) knowledge is power, Russian higher ranks tell each other as little as possible and what they do communicate is often misleading or outright lies. Nobody trusts anybody, both upwards and downwards. With good reason. Hard to have a coup when nobody trusts anybody else.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 04-17-2022

Turning back to the "how does it end" question, I share the lack of clarity around this that others have expressed.  BUt as I read this article this morning, the question "when does it end" unfortuately does seem to have an answer:  not soon.   I think this article is behind a paywall for many.   My core take-away is that the upcoming battles will be fought closer to Russia, on terrain that may be better suited to Russian forces, with Russia having the advantage of attrition, in areas with a higher % of the population sympathetic to Russia, and farther from Ukraine's core supply lines.  Ukraine could indeed become land-locked.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-ukraine-build-forces-for-looming-battles-in-east-11650193200?mod=hp_lead_pos9

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-17-2022

Remember that many of the military experts who are now saying Ukraine will suffer in this new phase of war that will look like WW2 Kursk also predicted Kiev would fall in days.

All the experts are waiting for some new shock and awe massed offensive but what we have been seeing is Russia continuing to send in piecemeal reconstituted forces made up of the survivors from their earlier failed offensive ( and not making progress). Meanwhile Ukraine is getting better and better weapons including Switchblades that can maul their maneuver units before the Russians make contact. The ground is still muddy. The lay of the land is not the same in WW2, the towns and villages are much larger and will need to be taken street by street from motivated defenders defending their own land.

This is not WW2 even though that's a very familiar lens for most of us to look at this through.

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