Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-16-2024

Looks like Syria is willing to allow Russia to keep its port and probably some of its bases (gifted article).

https://econ.st/3OXHnvp

HTS seems rather pragmatic.  I am surprised that they are being so magnanimous, but at the same time, I wonder if this is an attempt to shore up support in case Syrian factions devolve into a civil war.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-16-2024

Russia has been flying out a lot of large cargo planes from Kheimim, including disassembled helicopters. All of the ships normally based out of Tartus remain out to sea since the start of HTS' offensive picking up momentum.

So this is an interesting article, but the observable facts on the ground don't seem to indicate Russia is confident they will retain the bases.

I hope the US is also being pragmatic about trying to convince HTS to ditch the Russians, but I'm apprehensive about our foreign policy establishment's ability to pivot quickly.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-16-2024

(12-16-2024, 05:44 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia has been flying out a lot of large cargo planes from Kheimim, including disassembled helicopters. All of the ships normally based out of Tartus remain out to sea since the start of HTS' offensive picking up momentum.

So this is an interesting article, but the observable facts on the ground don't seem to indicate Russia is confident they will retain the bases.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/16/politics/russia-military-syria-withdrawal/index.html

It is undoubtedly true that no agreement made by HTS in the near term can be considered binding in the longer term. There is not yet a government in Syria. Even HTS does not control wide swaths of territory. We do however know a few things for sure.

Russia has withdrawn (or is withdrawing) all its forces stationed in "outstations". Russia SAMS, air controllers and "advisors" were spread around the rest of the country. None of these isolated outposts had enough "security forces" to defend themselves from the rebels without "help" from either Syrian security forces or Hezbollah. HTS apparently provided security for the convoy from the T4 air base to Khmeimim.  The means that lots of hardware is piling up in Khmeimim that is not normally stationed there. As a result, lots of it has to go elsewhere, and that elsewhere is Libya. This influx of material makes it difficult to know how much of the efflux via air to Libya is actually drawing down the Russian material stationed in Khmeimim. Some of that efflux is probably going to Tartus as well.

All that said, Russia is undoubtedly attempting to plan for all eventualities. Even if they have an agreement with HTS for the short term, it isn't certain that some other group (or HTS assets that just hate Russians) won't decide to attack the Russian positions in Syria. IMO the bottom line is that Russia intends to stay in Syria if it can, and is negotiating like mad to make that happen. Russia believes they are relatively "safe" in the short term, but they are also making contingency plans in case they do have to leave, either slowly or quickly.

I wouldn't read anything into the fact the Russian ships normally stationed in Tartus are anchored off the coast at 15 km distances. Any navy dealing with possible attacks on the base want sea room. Ships anchored in port are located at a totally known position. Land based weapons, such as artillery or missiles can hit those known coordinates with great accuracy. Ships cannot quickly leave port either. The waterways in the port are confined and narrow. However, in the open sea they can slip their anchor and be underway in a very few minutes. CODAG has its advantages. Land based artillery can't hit them if they are a moving target. On top of that, Tartus isn't exactly a good liberty port right now :-).

Quote:I hope the US is also being pragmatic about trying to convince HTS to ditch the Russians, but I'm apprehensive about our foreign policy establishment's ability to pivot quickly.

I share your apprehension. However, IMO the foreign policy establishment's number one priority is protecting the Kurds. Number two is urging the HTS to form an inclusive, secular, government. That will be a very heavy lift all by itself. I don't think the HTS folks will take kindly to being threatened regarding Russia. HTS is also probably very conscious of their "independence" and will want to preserve it. Both the US and Russia need to work under those constraints.

IMO our foreign policy establishment has an equally urgent (if not more so) task to perform in Libya. They need to make it crystal clear to Khalifa Haftar that if he grants Russia a naval base in Benghazi he personally will cease to exist very quickly thereafter. Strong message follows. Even Qaddafi wouldn't do that (Russia said he did but they "declined"). He would let Russian ships sit in the Gulf of Sidra but NOT land in Libya for maintenance or fuel. A base in Benghazi would be at least as useful to Russia as Tartus is. NATO South will go nuts. It is CRITICAL this not be allowed to happen. Unfortunately with a change in administration pending in the US getting such a strong stance articulated might be difficult.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-17-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mystery-syrian-il-76-cargo-021120743.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/future-russia-bases-syria-remains-224848895.html
https://www.newarab.com/news/russia-withdraw-all-military-forces-syria-within-month

The first article provides some information on how Assad fled Syria. It pretty much debunks (though not totally) the theory promulgated at the time that an IL-76 carrying Assad went down near Homs. The ADS-B data used to justify the idea the aircraft crashed contained maneuvers the plane just couldn't do. The position reports are GPS based and jamming-spoofing is known to happen in that area (probably from the Russians themselves). On top of that once the aircraft was identified on the air base radar turning off the transponder would quite possibly be a very good idea :-).

The idea that Russia has been given a month to leave is plausible, but so are lots of other things. The last link above presents that view is fact. While I hope it is so, I am not betting that way yet :-). The air base and port in Syria are very useful to Russia, especially when their warships can freely transit from Syria to Russian ports in the Black Sea. Supplies and personnel have a much shorter trip than if they must come through the Western Mediterranean from the Arctic or Baltic Sea. Ships can also take the short route for repair and dockyard services in Novorossiysk. The port in Syria also poses a threat to traffic from the exit of the Suez canal and anything else in the eastern Mediterranean.

Logistics ships destined for ports in Africa, both the north coast and the east coast, benefit from the option of stopping in Syria to make a "pit stop". It also allows transshipment of cargo to "regularly scheduled" back-and-forth delivery operations, which previously Russia has used to maintain a flow of war material to their clients.  Without the port in Syria these deliveries would be longer voyages that would have to be loaded optimally for the destinations. This would impose constraints and delays Russia currently does not have.

A naval base in Libya would help Russia ship bulky materials to destinations in Africa. It would also pose a threat to sea control in the Mediterranean by NATO because of its central location and proximity to many critical NATO facilities. It would be a "short" delivery run from Syria if Russia maintains that base. If Russia does not, it can still ship materials via Libya more easily if it has a dedicated naval facility.

Of course, neither of these bases would be sustainable in the event of full-scale war. However, even in that event they would consume NATO resources to neutralize them. Russia stationed four Kilo submarines at Tartus. They would probably do the same at Benghazi. Those boats could do a lot of damage with their cruise missiles and torpedoes  before they were eliminated. In the "low scale" conflicts in Africa, similar to what has transpired in Syria for years, the ability of Russia to directly project power from Benghazi would be very unwelcome to NATO.

The Russian air base in Syria is much more important to Russia than the port is. The Russian heavy-lift air transports cannot fly from Russian territory directly to Libya fully loaded. They are constrained to very light loads. The current pathway for fully-loaded transports is a flight via Syria to refuel and then a flight on to Libya. Russia has no good alternative to this approach. The US, if faced with the same problem, would use its tanker fleet to refuel the heavy-lift transports in flight. Russia can't do that, they don't have that capability. The possibility of negotiating landing rights in "nearby" countries e.g. Egypt is problematic for Russia. The neighboring states in the Middle East don't want to be seen facilitating Russia's African adventures. They also don't want to risk US/NATO sanctions for doing so. Russia doesn't want to be put in a situation where its air route could be unexpectedly closed by these nations. Russia therefore needs Khmeimim badly. Khmeimim needs Tartus to bring in the jet fuel and supplies to keep it running.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-17-2024

Back to Ukraine a minute and the untimely demise of the Russian General in charge of nuclear and chemical warfare, by way of a bomb-laden scooter, courtesy of Ukraine.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/ukraine-says-it-killed-senior-russian-general-in-moscow-bombing-9e315b29?st=wLAB88&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-17-2024

Video of the explosion. You can see the scooter right next to the doorway he walks through.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1868979591341392029

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - ADPinWDC - 12-17-2024

(12-17-2024, 10:59 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Back to Ukraine a minute and the untimely demise of the Russian General in charge of nuclear and chemical warfare, by way of a bomb-laden scooter, courtesy of Ukraine.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/ukraine-says-it-killed-senior-russian-general-in-moscow-bombing-9e315b29?st=wLAB88&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

BC

This link works
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/ukraine-says-it-killed-senior-russian-general-in-moscow-bombing-9e315b29

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 12-17-2024

The reach of the Ukrainian SBU is impressive.  Glory to the silent, hidden heroes.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 12-20-2024

(12-17-2024, 06:03 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  The reach of the Ukrainian SBU is impressive.  Glory to the silent, hidden heroes.

Another Putin problem that hasn't gotten much press is the apparent failure of the Russian Winter grain crop.

https://farmtario.com/daily/russias-kursk-region-declares-emergency-due-to-winter-grain-crop-failure/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/dire-russian-crop-health-ukraine-export-risks-threaten-black-sea-wheat-braun-2024-12-06/

I believe we have terminated shipping wheat to Russia.  Putin has to feed his growing army and that will come at the expense of the average Russian. Maybe this explains a little more about why Ukraine did what it did in Kursk.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - ADPinWDC - 12-21-2024

(12-20-2024, 08:27 AM)GK3 Wrote:  

(12-17-2024, 06:03 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  The reach of the Ukrainian SBU is impressive.  Glory to the silent, hidden heroes.

Another Putin problem that hasn't gotten much press is the apparent failure of the Russian Winter grain crop.

https://farmtario.com/daily/russias-kursk-region-declares-emergency-due-to-winter-grain-crop-failure/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/dire-russian-crop-health-ukraine-export-risks-threaten-black-sea-wheat-braun-2024-12-06/

I believe we have terminated shipping wheat to Russia.  Putin has to feed his growing army and that will come at the expense of the average Russian. Maybe this explains a little more about why Ukraine did what it did in Kursk.

Forget the wheat... 
What about Cabbage for Kimchi now that Koreans are at the Front?  What's up with that?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-22-2024

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/12/19/italy-bristles-at-prospect-of-russia-moving-ships-from-syria-to-libya/

Not much "meat" here but it is can clearly be viewed as the precursor to NATO South becoming "very upset". The US and pur allies are definitely sending a message to both Russia and Haftar that Haftar shouldn't even consider going along with a Russian naval base in the part of Libya he controls. The problem is that Haftar may not believe the US and NATO would actually do anything to stop it. IMO some kind of a shot across his bow may be required to get the message across.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 12-23-2024

(12-22-2024, 05:14 PM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/12/19/italy-bristles-at-prospect-of-russia-moving-ships-from-syria-to-libya/

Not much "meat" here but it is can clearly be viewed as the precursor to NATO South becoming "very upset". The US and pur allies are definitely sending a message to both Russia and Haftar that Haftar shouldn't even consider going along with a Russian naval base in the part of Libya he controls. The problem is that Haftar may not believe the US and NATO would actually do anything to stop it. IMO some kind of a shot across his bow may be required to get the message across.

Very much with you on this, Goose.  This  seems like a time to take a strategic step forward in the Mediterranean and reduce Russia's naval capabilities, and despite the transition in Washington I hope this is recognized and acted upon.   let's keep watching!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 12-23-2024

Russian "civilian" cargo ship Ursa Major is being reported as having suffered a major engine room explosion in the Mediterranean just prior to sinking. The vessel was reportedly involved in the Russian evacuation from Syria.

[edit]:
www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1871336694089429297

Ursa Major is a known entity:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/september/russia-violating-montreux-convention-civilian-ships

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-23-2024

(12-23-2024, 10:09 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  Russian "civilian" cargo ship Ursa Major is being reported as having suffered a major engine room explosion in the Mediterranean just prior to sinking. The vessel was reportedly involved in the Russian evacuation from Syria.

www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/1871336694089429297

It appears this tweet has been removed. One that still exists is https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1871403319907758376?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet.

It agrees the ship has sunk, but claims it was carrying material bound for Vlad. The reactor hatches make sense in that context. The two mobile cranes are a bit suspect. It could be the cranes were intended for Libya (Benghazi) to help build a better port. Maybe we will never know.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 12-23-2024

(12-23-2024, 10:20 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(12-23-2024, 10:09 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  Russian "civilian" cargo ship Ursa Major is being reported as having suffered a major engine room explosion in the Mediterranean just prior to sinking. The vessel was reportedly involved in the Russian evacuation from Syria.

www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/1871336694089429297

It appears this tweet has been removed. One that still exists is https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1871403319907758376?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet.

It agrees the ship has sunk, but claims it was carrying material bound for Vlad. The reactor hatches make sense in that context. The two mobile cranes are a bit suspect. It could be the cranes were intended for Libya (Benghazi) to help build a better port. Maybe we will never know.

I typo'd the tweet, sorry: www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1871336694089429297

Corroborating article:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-cargo-ship-sank-mediterranean-sea-with-two-crew-missing-russian-foreign-2024-12-24/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-25-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-state-owner-says-cargo-175255712.html

The Russians are now officially claiming sabotage. It may very well have been, as Ukraine has demonstrated an uncanny ability to arrange bombs to be planted in very unlikely places. There are also many "other" players that may have reasons not to let that cargo go to its final destination. However, it seems beyond belief that Russia has conducted an investigation of what caused the explosions. They would need divers and all kinds of support craft to actually investigate what exploded and why. The Russian (and unfortunately the Ukrainian as well) military does not religiously follow protocols for safe storage and transport of explosive materials. Russian ship engine maintenance  also has proven erratic. Hard to rule out some kind of accident.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 12-25-2024

I’d think all levels of Russia would want to blame such an event on Ukraine, especially if it wasn’t Ukraine’s doing.  Why investigate if it might not give the right answer?

Meanwhile someone may lean too far out of a window somewhere in Russia

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 12-26-2024

Meanwhile, the Russians have shot down an Azerbaijiani Airlines passenger flight, probably mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-airlines-flight-was-downed-by-russian-air-defence-system-four-sources-2024-12-26/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-26-2024

Russia also denied emergency landing permission at all the nearby airports, forcing the pilots to divert across the Caspian sea and crash land in Kazakhstan, without functioning controls in the tail. The pilots did not survive, but half the passengers did.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-26-2024

(12-26-2024, 03:42 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  Meanwhile, the Russians have shot down an Azerbaijiani Airlines passenger flight, probably mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-airlines-flight-was-downed-by-russian-air-defence-system-four-sources-2024-12-26/

The long periods of "track unknown" in the map point to the aircraft GPS not supplying flight data during that interval. There are three possible reasons for this. One is that Russia was jamming the GPS signal. Another is that Russia was jamming the ADS-B frequency. The third would be that the aircrew turned off the transponder. There is no reason to believe the aircrew would turn off the transponder ("strangle the parrot") during a legitimate flight. The secondary radar identification is there to allow the ground monitors to know who the aircraft is. Even without GPS the ground air traffic control (ATC) should have a range and bearing to the aircraft from the transponder response to the interrogation doublet. Russian ATC knew (or definitely should have known) who the aircraft was and more or less where it was. They also would know its altitude (barometric at a minimum). The pilots would undoubtedly have contacted Russian ATC as soon as they got into the Russian ADIZ. 

The Russian air defense network quite possibly didn't have that information. It also may be that the Russian air defense (Pantsir has been mentioned) was operating in an "automatic" mode. Of course, if that was the case the Russians should have closed the air space and issued a NOTAM to that effect. Periodic broadcast of that fact also should have been made on the local ATC frequencies and possibly 121.5. Russia obviously doesn't follow international norms, so it isn't surprising they did not in this case. Just another reason they are dangerous.

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