Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-06-2024

Regime forces have lost 4 different regional capitals today, to various rebel factions in southern and eastern Syria. Seems regime forces are mostly defecting or retreating. It's an open question if there will even be serious fighting over Damascus. May fall without a serious fight, like Kabul.

If the national institutions are rotten, even substantial foreign blood and treasure cannot prop up an unpopular regime for forever, as we learned in Afghanistan, after the Russians learned in Afghanistan, and as the Russians are relearning now in Syria.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-06-2024

(12-06-2024, 12:37 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Losing Kheimim airbase would cripple Russia force projection to Africa.

https://x.com/JohnLechner1/status/1865104493282533445

I agree with Lechner that Libya is too far from Russia to be a viable alternative using only air transport. However the preferred way of moving military material to Africa is by sea and always has been. Russia would prefer to use sea transport from the Black Sea. That is what they did in the past. It is the closest route with the best weather. Russia still uses it today, stopping off in Syria if required/useful. However, due to the Ukraine war and the Montreux Convention shipping military equipment through the Dardanelles is risky. It isn't supposed to happen. If Russia gets caught it at a minimum fails to get the shipment  through and is embarrassed. That has happened. In theory the ship can be impounded. Russia must at a minimum not be too obvious about it. The "once a week turn" that used to exist no longer does, since 2022. When the war ends that constraint goes away. Until then, Russia can use ships from either Arctic or Baltic ports to do so. Further and colder, but that isn't caused by problems in Syria. Personnel can still go by air even without the Syrian air base. Things like ammunition and vehicles don't go that way in any case. Lechner seems to ignore this possibility.

Making Libya the Russian "hub" in Africa wouldn't be all that difficult if the NATO countries didn't object. Russia really wanted to do so in cold war days, but Gaddafi knew NATO South and the 6th fleet wouldn't stand for it. I suspect Haftar got the same message. Of course, 6th fleet is not even a shadow of its former self. I am guessing Russia won't push the issue right now. One end of the Med is already effectively closed to their Navy. Closing the other end wouldn't be that difficult.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-06-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-not-come-assad-rescue-172820336.html

This article indicates that Russia has indeed not made provisions for evacuating its main air base in Syria. It suggests that Aircraft might be transported to the naval base for shipment. Unserviceable aircraft maybe. Flyable ones will IMO be flown. MIG-31s are very large aircraft. Transporting them on a road is not at all easy.

Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad. To what extent that is true will be TBD. It appears from the article it is unclear where Assad actually is. I am guessing that Russia is negotiating like mad with all the rebel factions regarding the status of Russian bases. One would think the rebels, having been repeatedly attacked by Russian forces over the years would want them gone. However, this is the Middle East. All things are negotiable. I would not assume that Russia will be worse off after this all shakes out, however it ends. I also wouldn't assume they will retain any bases either. Both outcomes are easily possible.

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(12-06-2024, 03:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Regime forces have lost 4 different regional capitals today, to various rebel factions in southern and eastern Syria. Seems regime forces are mostly defecting or retreating. It's an open question if there will even be serious fighting over Damascus. May fall without a serious fight, like Kabul.

If the national institutions are rotten, even substantial foreign blood and treasure cannot prop up an unpopular regime for forever, as we learned in Afghanistan, after the Russians learned in Afghanistan, and as the Russians are relearning now in Syria.

Are you sure we learned/relearned in Afghanistan, and if we did learn something, what were our "take-aways"? I am not real sure what the "lessons" were or that we won't do something equally foolish in the future. Describing the "desired end state" and how to obtain it doesn't seem to be our strong suite.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-06-2024

Quote:Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad.

Whatever they're saying, this is what they're doing.

Quote:Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.

Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.

.......


“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst who advises officials on regional strategy, said in a telephone interview.

“The bottom line,” he added, “is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-06-2024

(12-06-2024, 06:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

Quote:Both Russia and Iran say they will continue to support Assad.

Whatever they're saying, this is what they're doing.

Quote:Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.

Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.

.......


“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst who advises officials on regional strategy, said in a telephone interview.

“The bottom line,” he added, “is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html

It looks like both Russia and Iran are blaming their inability/unwillingness to support Assad on the Syrian military's unwillingness to fight. They are in effect saying "Nothing we can do to help them if they won't help themselves.". It is obviously spin, not substance. From the article:

Quote:Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had traveled to Damascus this week, meeting with Mr. al-Assad and pledging Iran’s full support.
But in Baghdad on Friday, he appeared to make a more ambiguous statement. “We are not fortune tellers,” he said in an interview on Iraqi television. “Whatever is God’s will shall happen, but the resistance will fulfill its duty".

They hope their "base" will believe they did all they could, but the Syrians wouldn't fight. Despite Iran doing its duty, God willed an unfavorable outcome. Hard to believe anybody would buy that, but I guess it is worth a try :-).

The more I hear the more concerned I am that some kind of agreement between HTS and Russia/Iran exists. It is hard to believe both Russia and Iran would do so little to help Assad unless they don't fear the results of Assad's defeat. Russia has enough air power in Syria that they can pretty much stop the rebels offensive towards Damascus for a week at least. They can force the rebels to move in small groups, not just drive down the highway. They aren't doing it. Putin isn't a "God's Will" type of guy. Makes me worry about a "subplot" in this rebellion.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-06-2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-rebels-seize-fourth-city-close-homs-threat-assads-rule-2024-12-07/

Fourth city falls.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-06-2024

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/06/can-syrian-rebels-maintain-momentum-and-take-damascus

A somewhat less "optimistic" view in this article, but there is no question the Assad forces are just not fighting. That may change, but it isn't wise to bet on it. If Assad doesn't get lots of help from the Iranian inspired Hezbollah troops supposedly around Damascus he is for sure toast.  Unless there is already some kind of deal with Iran, Hezbollah would be greatly damaged by Iran losing the corridors for weapons through Syria.

Even if Iran is not going to help Assad, Hezbollah may out of simple self-interest. The road through the Beqaa Valley splits of the M5 just south of Homs. That is (or was at least) the Ho Chi Minh trail of Lebanon.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-07-2024

Regime forces changing into civilian clothes in streets of Damascus

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1865396403385553040

Rebels driving into center of Homs.

https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1865392409279869427

Assad is done. Let's hope the rebels can get him before he flees.

https://x.com/KyleJGlen/status/1865358697620295899

Russia getting out what they can

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-07-2024

In other news
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/07/denmark-hands-over-second-batch-of-f-16-fighters-to-ukraine-zelenskyy/
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/30/zelenskyy-f-16-fighters-recently-destroys-seven-cruise-missiles-used-by-russia-to-attack-ukraine/

Things had pretty much gone radio silent on F-16 activities in Ukraine. The jets seem to be active in shooting down Russian cruise missile threats. The number of cruise missiles Russia has been using has dropped considerably. It could be because these cruise missiles are relatively more difficult to make and Russia wants to protect their supply. It also could be because Ukraine is shooting them down at an increasing rate and they are becoming less effective. I suspect both things are in play. Of course, the number of F-16s (and pilots) Ukraine has is still pitifully small. Still, they are making themselves felt. If only this was two years ago.

The second article contains an "interesting" statement.

Quote:The timeline for a fully operational squadron has been delayed. A complete squadron of 20 F-16s may not be ready for deployment until spring or summer 2025 due to a shift in training focus towards younger Ukrainian cadets rather than experienced pilots.

Finally the light comes on! This is only what the Germans and the Poles have known for many years. Converting pilots used to flying Soviet era jets to "Western" jets is a losing proposition. Too much "unlearning" required. Finally doing it the "right way". Very late in the game.

I guess we will never know what actually happened to Moonfish. That is IMO very sad. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Mes. He deserves better. Whether it was a Yellow on Yellow incident,  CFIT by Moonfish or something else the lessons learned are important and should be told. He would have wanted it that way.

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-losing-artillery-advantage-in-its-war-against-ukraine/
Interesting article. The article says the disparity is being reduced due to a "variety of factors". Ukraine has a better supply due to deliveries from "the West" and Russia has supply problems due to Ukraine's successful attacks on Russian ammunition depots and supply chain. There is quite probably another factor. The VKS is now able to deliver very powerful glide bomb attacks reliably anywhere they need to do so with regularity. Congratulations NATO, we have forced Russia to develop a critical and effective capability they did not previously have. We have also given them years to work out the bugs in a real conflict. Russians may be slow, but they are persistent. Boy are we smart. The "flying artillery" has the big advantage that it can be concentrated on any target quickly without requiring nearby bases. What a concept!

IMO the Ukrainian disruption of Russian artillery ammunition supply is a big factor. I also believe that the weather is becoming a factor. Russia is therefore building up its artillery stocks for use in early 2025. They are still moving forward using the glide bombs instead. The weather will make that harder and may shut it down entirely at times. Russia will take a breath when it does. This has been a Russian pattern forever and there is no reason to believe that will change. They won't completely "shut down" their offensives but the tempo will decrease. They will regroup a bit. If there are no peace negotiations started by the middle of February, subject to the weather Russia will start firing much more artillery again and begin an offensive to end the war on their terms. IMO that will happen even if there are talks.

The Ukrainian F-16s, even though few in number, will eventually have to oppose the VKS to deter the use of glide bombs. Russia can't have a free lunch. Russia is probably not ready for that. Even modest Ukrainian success might cause a long pause in the use of glide bombs while the VKS figures out how to protect them. Even forcing the Russians to jettison their weapons and go defensive is a "win" for Ukraine. The VKS hasn't exactly been quick to do anything in this war. Putting up both a strike and a CAP to protect it may be beyond their capabilities at present.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-07-2024

Opposition forces are “at the gates” of Damascus (sorry, couldn’t resist).  This looks to be all she wrote for the Assad regime.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/07/syria-rebels-reach-damascus-bashar-al-assad

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-07-2024

(12-07-2024, 04:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Opposition forces are “at the gates” of Damascus (sorry, couldn’t resist).  This looks to be all she wrote for the Assad regime.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/07/syria-rebels-reach-damascus-bashar-al-assad

BC

As I understand it, the opposition forces "at the gates" are actually coming from the south. They are not part of Hassan Abdul-Ghani's forces. Other groups are closing in from the east. This is really bad news for Assad as his capability to flee overland is being cut off. Worse still, the fact these smaller groups are joining the party means they are convinced Assad is done for and want their "piece of the pie" in the "settlement", whatever that is. They are not strong enough to stand up to Assad by themselves, but if he is doomed anyway they are better off being on the "winning side".

It must be noted that as the article stated the "foreign ministers" are meeting to discuss the situation. Some of the participants want Assad to remain in some capacity. They prefer the devil they know. Others simply want to avoid a continued war after Assad is gone. Others hope for exactly that to keep Syria weak. Right now, foreign intervention is Assad's best hope. Hassan Abdul-Ghani wants to end this thing fast and present the world with some kind of fiat accompli. I am guessing he greatly fears what will happen if some kind of cease-fire is imposed by external forces.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-07-2024

There’s a lesson for Putin in this: things look very stable—until they don’t.  Like, two weeks ago, did anyone have “the Assad regime falls” on their bingo card?  Even as the rebels kept marching south, I figured that at some point, the regime would stiffen and stop them.

It also makes me wonder what would have happened if Progozin had gone all the way to Moscow.  Most likely the Russian army stops him, but I could see a scenario where everyone looks for someone else to stop him and he gets all the way to the Kremlin and it’s Putin shoes plane explodes in mid-air.

BC

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Life comes at you fast: You’ve been given free access to this article from The Economist as a gift. You can open the link five times within seven days. After that it will expire.

The Syrian dictator’s last stand
https://econ.st/49qrpnc

Quote:A desperate Mr Assad has tried courting Arab states. Multiple sources say he made a personal appeal to Muhammad bin Zayed, the president of the UAE, who has a well-known hatred of Islamist groups like HTS. He has also begged for help from Egypt, Jordan and other countries. But nobody is willing to help a regime that now seems a lost cause. “He’s telling everyone he wants to fight,” one well-connected Syrian says of Mr Assad. “The problem is that no one else wants to fight for him.”

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-07-2024

(12-07-2024, 05:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  There’s a lesson for Putin in this: things look very stable—until they don’t.  Like, two weeks ago, did anyone have “the Assad regime falls” on their bingo card?  Even as the rebels kept marching south, I figured that at some point, the regime would stiffen and stop them.

Agree regarding Putin. Things can go south very quickly. Same applies to the Ukrainian military. It seems very probable at this point that Assad is toast, but sometimes things turn around quickly. What happens if some turncoat shoots Hassan Abdul-Ghani?

Quote:It also makes me wonder what would have happened if Progozin had gone all the way to Moscow.  Most likely the Russian army stops him, but I could see a scenario where everyone looks for someone else to stop him and he gets all the way to the Kremlin and it’s Putin shoes plane explodes in mid-air.

BC

I always wondered why Progozin chickened out. It looked very probable nobody was going to stop him until he got to Moscow. At that point, it would be a question of persuading his opponents that it was better for Russia if Putin fell. IMO Progozin really didn't want to take over Russia. He just wanted to be restored as Putin's favorite. "Winning" wouldn't do that. Progozin also knew he didn't have the political chops to pull off a full scale rebellion. Thus he bailed.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 12-07-2024

(12-07-2024, 06:18 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(12-07-2024, 05:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  There’s a lesson for Putin in this: things look very stable—until they don’t.  Like, two weeks ago, did anyone have “the Assad regime falls” on their bingo card?  Even as the rebels kept marching south, I figured that at some point, the regime would stiffen and stop them.

Agree regarding Putin. Things can go south very quickly. Same applies to the Ukrainian military. It seems very probable at this point that Assad is toast, but sometimes things turn around quickly. What happens if some turncoat shoots Hassan Abdul-Ghani?

Quote:It also makes me wonder what would have happened if Progozin had gone all the way to Moscow.  Most likely the Russian army stops him, but I could see a scenario where everyone looks for someone else to stop him and he gets all the way to the Kremlin and it’s Putin shoes plane explodes in mid-air.

BC

I always wondered why Progozin chickened out. It looked very probable nobody was going to stop him until he got to Moscow. At that point, it would be a question of persuading his opponents that it was better for Russia if Putin fell. IMO Progozin really didn't want to take over Russia. He just wanted to be restored as Putin's favorite. "Winning" wouldn't do that. Progozin also knew he didn't have the political chops to pull off a full scale rebellion. Thus he bailed.

Unfortunately he bailed out to his death. I do not think Putin has any inclination to "share" leadership with anyone else.  Progozin should have simply left town to somwhere safe, or carried out the move to Moscow which might have ended the Putin regeime.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 12-07-2024

The Assad regime is toast.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-07-2024

(12-05-2024, 11:50 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Assad is so toast. Maybe if HTS can find the YouTube video that tells them how to operate all the Russian AD kit they've captured, they can knock out Assad's plane as he flees.

Called it! I guess they did indeed find the YouTube video!

https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1865591119268184265

A great day for the Syrian people.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-07-2024

(12-07-2024, 06:38 PM)GK3 Wrote:  Unfortunately he bailed out to his death. I do not think Putin has any inclination to "share" leadership with anyone else.  Progozin should have simply left town to somwhere safe, or carried out the move to Moscow which might have ended the Putin regeime.

Putin absolutely didn't want to share anything. Unfortunately, when Putin is out to get you you need a LOT of money to have any chance at all to survive. Even then it isn't a sure thing. Progozin didn't have that anymore. Progozin thought he was safe in Belarus and that he had a deal with Putin. Didn't work out that way.

OTOH if he had carried out the move to Moscow, one of two things would have happened. Some "loyal" FSB regiments would have chewed him up, or he succeeds in overthrowing Putin but is then killed by Putin's eventual successor. Progozin had no political base and was definitely a "lightweight". He had no shot at seizing or holding on to power.  He realized that on the way to Moscow. That is why he switched to plan "B".

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(12-07-2024, 09:10 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

(12-05-2024, 11:50 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Assad is so toast. Maybe if HTS can find the YouTube video that tells them how to operate all the Russian AD kit they've captured, they can knock out Assad's plane as he flees.

Called it! I guess they did indeed find the YouTube video!

https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1865591119268184265

A great day for the Syrian people.

We will see in the morning what happened. We don't even know if Assad was on the plane, let alone whether it crashed.

That doesn't mean Assad isn't toast. It may be he just lasts awhile longer. As to how good the result is for the Syrian people, that is IMO very much TBD. It could be an improvement, but it also could be chaos.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-07-2024

Assad gassed his own people and murdered 10s of thousands of political prisoners. The path forward for Syria is uncertain, but I think the vast majority of Syrians are happy he is gone, and would embrace any amount of chaos if there is even a chance it is better than decades of brutal Assadist rule.

Just yesterday you were saying Russia has enough air power to keep the rebels away from Damascus for a week, so maybe worth examining some of your prior assumptions.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 12-07-2024

(12-07-2024, 10:01 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Assad gassed his own people and murdered 10s of thousands of political prisoners. The path forward for Syria is uncertain, but I think the vast majority of Syrians are happy he is gone, and would embrace any amount of chaos if there is even a chance it is better than decades of brutal Assadist rule.

Just yesterday you were saying Russia has enough air power to keep the rebels away from Damascus for a week, so maybe worth examining some of your prior assumptions.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/syrian-troops-withdraw-south-country-110805857.html
https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430

While we don't know about Assad himself at the moment, Damascus is now in rebel hands. More importantly, the Assad government in Damascus has surrendered its power.  That can't be "undone" very easily.

I agree with you that Assad was a criminal that abused his people massively. However, when he first took power many western media felt he would be a vast improvement over his father. After all, he was a western trained ophthalmologist. Didn't turn out that way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damascus_Spring. I too think the majority of Syrians hated Assad, and him being gone creates an opportunity for something better. From that point of view, Syrians are happy. However, I am equally certain that the vast majority of Syrians are very concerned about what happens next. They have seen domination of much of their country by Islamic State. They know there are lots of armed groups running around that may or may not intend to install a democracy. Most importantly, normal commerce has to resume. People need to eat. That isn't a given. A Taliban like government would not be considered an improvement by many Syrians, for example. An ongoing civil war might not be considered an improvement either.

As far as Russian air power goes, Russia chose not to help Assad in any serious way. How many sorties did they fly against the rebels? How many destroyed Russian aircraft carcasses do we see littering the ground on the highway from Homs to Damascus? None I know of. The VKS didn't fight. We will never actually know how much they could have slowed down the rebels if they had. The fate of the Russian aircraft remaining in Syria remains unknown. As far as I know, they are still there and intact. We will know more later.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 12-07-2024

VKS was not inactive. They hit the Al-Rastan bridge south of Hama several times. They hit a regime position before it was evacuated, oops! It's incorrect to say they didn't fight. They fought very poorly, but they did at least try. Remember, in Syria the VKS mostly just bombed civilians. Expecting them to suddenly become adept at close air support was always a bad assumption. They definitely did not have the capability of keeping the rebels out of Damascus for "a week at least", as the events of the past 24 hours demonstrated.

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