Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-19-2024

Cool video of a Ukrainian Hind helicopter downing a Russian drone

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1847741784383696918

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-19-2024

Interesting anti-drone technology: https://www.wsj.com/tech/antidrone-tech-competition-college-students-4765a6ed?st=Np8taL&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-23-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-population-fallen-10-million-104343521.html
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russias-economy-faces-demographic-disaster-011318683.html

Both Russia and Ukraine have severe demographic and economic issues. As these articles make clear (IMO) the Ukrainian population decline is much more proximate and will have (and is having) serious effects on the war situation. Ukraine has lost approximately 1/4 of its population, much of it children and "younger people". Many of the younger people are in theory eligible to be drafted, but while they are out of the country it isn't really practical. Losing lots of your workforce is also problematic. Russia has problems, some of which have impacts in the present but most of which will bite it in the future. Ukraine has big problems now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-23-2024

Let's see what happens on November 5 because that day may bring the decisive event in this war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - qwerty49 - 10-23-2024

(10-23-2024, 10:13 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-population-fallen-10-million-104343521.html
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russias-economy-faces-demographic-disaster-011318683.html

Both Russia and Ukraine have severe demographic and economic issues. As these articles make clear (IMO) the Ukrainian population decline is much more proximate and will have (and is having) serious effects on the war situation. Ukraine has lost approximately 1/4 of its population, much of it children and "younger people". Many of the younger people are in theory eligible to be drafted, but while they are out of the country it isn't really practical. Losing lots of your workforce is also problematic. Russia has problems, some of which have impacts in the present but most of which will bite it in the future. Ukraine has big problems now.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, attrition is not the best tiebreaker. Losing 25% of the population is a staggering figure. Are figures available for the countries most affected by WW2? How about Korea?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-23-2024

(10-23-2024, 08:29 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  

(10-23-2024, 10:13 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-population-fallen-10-million-104343521.html
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russias-economy-faces-demographic-disaster-011318683.html

Both Russia and Ukraine have severe demographic and economic issues. As these articles make clear (IMO) the Ukrainian population decline is much more proximate and will have (and is having) serious effects on the war situation. Ukraine has lost approximately 1/4 of its population, much of it children and "younger people". Many of the younger people are in theory eligible to be drafted, but while they are out of the country it isn't really practical. Losing lots of your workforce is also problematic. Russia has problems, some of which have impacts in the present but most of which will bite it in the future. Ukraine has big problems now.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, attrition is not the best tiebreaker. Losing 25% of the population is a staggering figure. Are figures available for the countries most affected by WW2? How about Korea?

Korea lost about 10% of their population (a total of 3 million people). Ukraine's population "loss" is mostly refugees. They can return if and when they wish. Very few are going to return while the war is still in progress. After the war many will probably stay where they are if they have found jobs and integrated themselves into society. In any case, none of the refugees are helping Ukraine in the short term.

For reference, the Soviet Union lost about 14.8% of the population in WW II. Of course, many people were injured and even more displaced, but they were available to the Soviet government to work in the defense industry and to return to the front after recovery. The 25% Ukraine has lost is not available for use. Of course, many of them are too young anyway so it isn't quite apples and apples. Every year, another draft class becomes eligible but is not available because they are not in Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-24-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/opinion-putin-suffers-another-massive-110000190.html
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/40820

These articles are "interesting". The Kyivpost article is IMO a bit over the top and ignores the reality that there is no way Ukraine is getting into NATO in the near term. The votes just aren't there. The Kyivpost article does however make the important and overlooked point that the North Korean forces aren't just "cannon fodder". They are a disciplined and motivated force and therefore potentially much more dangerous than Russian conscripts. The Yahoo article has one little "gem" that if accurate is pretty chilling. It says that Russia is receiving 3 million shells a year from North Korea which is HALF of its expenditure in Ukraine. That would mean Russia is firing 6 million shells a year. Ukraine is getting something around 1.3 million from the west (https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/02/west-underestimating-ukraines-artillery-needs/394392/).  Being outgunned 3:1 is bad enough. 6:1 is hopeless.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-24-2024

North Korea obviously can't sustain that rate of donating shells to Russia. Russia will run out of their Soviet stocks of tanks and IFVs in 2025, or maybe 2026 if they reduce the intensity of their offensives.

But will the West lose their nerve or simply their patience before then?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-24-2024

(10-24-2024, 11:12 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  North Korea obviously can't sustain that rate of donating shells to Russia.

Why is it obvious? North Korea has been a military state since 1945. They have 1.2 million soldiers in their Army. I don't know how many shells they have stockpiled or how many they can make in a year, so I can't say what they can or can't do. You may have better data. What I could find is this: https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/87957/whats-north-koreas-yearly-production-capacity-for-artillery-shells. This indicates that North Korea produces 2 million rounds of 152mm at "peacetime" effort levels. Their "wartime" level is 4-6 million rounds per year. If Russia is helping by providing raw materials it could be more. They are definitely converting existing infrastructure to make shells for Russia.

Quote:Russia will run out of their Soviet stocks of tanks and IFVs in 2025, or maybe 2026 if they reduce the intensity of their offensives.

That may be true. An example of articles saying this is https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/2025-year-russia-runs-out-tanks-fight-ukraine-211947. However, this article at least says the following:

Quote:It seems the storage facilities could now be close to empty – at least of vehicles that could be serviceable and able to be returned to combat. As a result, even on paper, Russia's tank force is appearing to be quite lean, according to a report this week from The Economist, which suggested Moscow will reach a "critical point of depletion" by as early as next year.

"Could be" isn't "are". Forecasts of Russia depleting their assets have been frequent but so far overly optimistic. When I hear it from NATO intelligence sources I might believe it. It is true that Russia will run "short" of these assets at some point. Given the way Russia uses its IFVs and tanks they neither need nor want the "latest and greatest". The lack of artillery and tank tubes that are not worn out could be an equally large problem. I could also point out that North Korea has quite a few artillery assets that it could sell to Russia. Many of these assets are obsolete, but that works fine for Russia. IMO it is not wise to assume this will become a "savior" for Ukraine.

Quote:But will the West lose their nerve or simply their patience before then?

An additional question is "Will Ukraine lose their ability to effectively resist Russian infantry pressure and/or missile attacks?" The signs in Donbas are not good. There are both kinetic and morale issues that are not trending in a positive direction. Obviously the election outcome will greatly affect what the US does and many "knock on" effects will exist, either way. It will also IMO greatly affect what Ukraine does. One thing I believe that all sides should be aware of is that Ukraine will not stop fighting even if they are "defeated" and a political surrender effected. Guerilla war will undoubtedly break out if it comes to that. Ukraine is going to be a disaster area for quite a few years no matter the "outcome" of this war.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-24-2024

Russia's Soviet vehicle yards are observable on satellite imagery that is open to anyone. Don't need to be CIA to see that they are running out of vehicles. The fact that Russian offensives are using less vehicles than previously also fits with the fact they are running out of vehicles. The exact date they run out is contingent on how poorly preserved and cannibalized their stocks are, the rate at which they can refurbish them, and how they use them, which can't be easily determined from satellite imagery. But what is certain is their supply of Soviet vehicles is limited, the depots are significantly depleted as compared to the start of the conflict, and their production of new tanks and IFVs is very low.

https://x.com/jonpy99
This account has been a good resource reviewing satellite imagery of these Soviet depots

Obviously maybe too strong of a word in my prior post. Perhaps North Korea can continue providing half of the Russian army's shells in Ukraine, but I don't think that's likely. Do you? There have been anecdotes that at least some of the shells North Korea has supplied are very old and perform suboptimally. North Korea has their own domestic concerns. I figure they are ok with drawing down some of their older stockpiles but they will not be doing that for years and years.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-24-2024

(10-24-2024, 01:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia's Soviet vehicle yards are observable on satellite imagery that is open to anyone. Don't need to be CIA to see that they are running out of vehicles. The fact that Russian offensives are using less vehicles than previously also fits with the fact they are running out of vehicles. The exact date they run out is contingent on how poorly preserved and cannibalized their stocks are, the rate at which they can refurbish them, and how they use them, which can't be easily determined from satellite imagery. But what is certain is their supply of Soviet vehicles is limited, the depots are significantly depleted as compared to the start of the conflict, and their production of new tanks and IFVs is very low.

https://x.com/jonpy99
This account has been a good resource reviewing satellite imagery of these Soviet depots

I certainly agree their resources are not limitless, and that their depots are significantly depleted. However, as I am sure you are aware many of these depots have covered (buildings or "tents") storage that contains an unknown number of vehicles in unknown condition. One would think these storage areas contained the "best" vehicles and they got used first, but who knows? Russia might have done it in the opposite order because they knew the vehicles stored in the open are in worse shape and could be easily counted.  It must also be said that Russia is a very big place and there are undoubtedly lots of "smaller" storage areas scattered all over Siberia and central Russia. It is really hard to know what their resources actually are. 

The fact Russia is using fewer IFVs and tanks in their operations also fits with the idea they have become more proficient (and smarter) in their use and therefore actually needs fewer such vehicles. Given how poorly these vehicles performed and how many were needlessly destroyed improvement wouldn't be difficult :-). If and when we see Russian attacks failing for lack of such resources it will indeed indicate shortages. Until that happens the "improvement" explanation is IMO much more probable.

Quote:Obviously maybe too strong of a word in my prior post. Perhaps North Korea can continue providing half of the Russian army's shells in Ukraine, but I don't think that's likely. Do you? 

I think it is almost certain. They supposedly have the capacity to more than double their production in time of war. If so, they can meet their own needs and send 3 million shells to Russia forever. Supposedly the limiting factor is not industrial capacity but access to raw materials. Russia can probably help there. The trains going back to North Korea can be filled with scrap metal etc. to make more shells. Capitalism is also a great motivator. This desperately poor country is getting paid (either in cash or in kind) for what the are delivering. They WANT to be a good supplier to Russia and are highly motivated. It is amazing what level of effort that can extract.

Quote:There have been anecdotes that at least some of the shells North Korea has supplied are very old and perform suboptimally. 

I absolutely believe it. Russian ordinance does the same, but probably less often. I don't think that bothers Russia much at all. "Quantity has a quality all its own".

Quote:North Korea has their own domestic concerns. I figure they are ok with drawing down some of their older stockpiles but they will not be doing that for years and years.

Sure they will. They are replacing the old shells with new ones, which they do periodically anyway. According to South Korea two million a year on a one-shift peacetime schedule. If they get the raw materials and run three shifts (which they supposedly are now doing) making another three million a year (if not more) is entirely possible. They are also repurposing a mortar ammunition factory near their norther border to make 152 mm shells. Supply and demand in action! Maybe malnutrition can be reduced.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-24-2024

Maybe North Korea can produce 2 million shells a year and double that in wartime, but the sourcing on that looked very speculative.

We'll have to wait and see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-24-2024

(10-24-2024, 03:08 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Maybe North Korea can produce 2 million shells a year and double that in wartime, but the sourcing on that looked very speculative.

We'll have to wait and see.

Agree. The sourcing on North Korean capabilities is very "thin". South Korean intelligence of course tries to get as much information as possible but even that is very limited. All we can do is wait and see. The uncertainty is exacerbated by the North Koreans and Russians not really having clear executable plans themselves and often having to improvise, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-24-2024

(10-24-2024, 01:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia's Soviet vehicle yards are observable on satellite imagery that is open to anyone.....
https://x.com/jonpy99

That lead to the Covert Cabal channel on YouTube.  His recent videos were easy to follow.

I was left with a question.  Their estimation of weapons and such use an exhaustion point of effectively zero spares.  But, would the Russian military allow the war to continue to the point that their military reserve of ground weapons (artillery, tanks, BMPs,...) was totally exhausted?   Would that mean that Russia would be vulnerable to conflicts?  Or do their air force and nuclear threats protect them from any such threat?

I have no idea if China might like to extend their northeast border to the Sea of Japan or even further north.  Russia might not want to get into a nuclear war with China and might choose to give that up rather than try to engage in a conventional war against a peer, when their military is pretty exhausted.  I can imagine China might like to remove the Russian military bases that are relatively close.  Cut the land route to the Sea of Japan and blockade the sea ports.  This would also isolate North Korea from Russia.   (China would also face the NK military due to the recent treaty, unless NK looks at China's strength and closeness and says "Uh, never mind")

If China had a mind to do this, what better time than now?  Beat up on an exhausted fighter to the northeast rather than take on a fresh fighter to the southeast.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-24-2024

Russia would be very overextended from a conventional sense in the event of another conflict. But their nuclear forces are still enough of a deterrent that it would prevent China, or Poland, or Finland, or Japan from trying to press any of their irrendtist claims.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 10-24-2024

It would be a good time for any separatist movements on Russia's frontiers to try for a breakaway attempt, except that I think Russia has been heavily conscripting fighting-age men from those same areas.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-24-2024

(10-24-2024, 07:48 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia would be very overextended from a conventional sense in the event of another conflict. But their nuclear forces are still enough of a deterrent that it would prevent China, or Poland, or Finland, or Japan from trying to press any of their irrendtist claims.

IMO absolutely correct. Poland, Finland, and Japan want no part of a war, conventional or otherwise with Russia. Apart from the nuclear threat, their air defenses are not good enough to prevent significant damage from the VKS. Russia couldn't win the war that way, but it could do enough damage it just wouldn't be worth it. Unlike Russia, these states are "sane" and could do the math. China probably figures Russia will become a wholly owned subsidiary soon enough anyway. Wait for the Russian economy to collapse and make them an offer they can't refuse. Much cleaner that way.

(10-24-2024, 08:08 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  It would be a good time for any separatist movements on Russia's frontiers to try for a breakaway attempt, except that I think Russia has been heavily conscripting fighting-age men from those same areas.

Indeed Russia has been conscripting young men from these states. Lots of them don't come back, but those that do are trained killers and quite unhappy with Russia. If you are going to be drafted and sent on "meat attacks" you have nothing to lose. Why not rebel? Their will be plenty of experienced kinsman to lead you. IMO if Russia loses in Ukraine these states will try to become independent with 100% probability. If Russia "wins" or the war continues, the probability drops but it will be far from zero. Economic hardship, which is coming either way, will be a driver as well.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-25-2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/factbox-north-koreas-military-one-081221402.html

Obviously neither definitive or comprehensive, the above article does give some information about North Korean military capability. Their very large number of armored vehicles, though dated, indicates North Korea has significant capability to augment Russian capabilities. They also have a large number of active-duty troops that have spent at least three years in the military. These troops are disciplined and well organized. How well they will actually fight is unknown. In the few skirmishes that have occurred with South Korean forces over the past may years the North Koreans maintained discipline and fought well. They did not however respond flexibly. Hard to draw conclusions from such a small number of cases usually under "unusual" circumstances.

IMO North Korea is going to have trouble with the troops it sends to the "outside world". A significant percentage of these troops will see "how the other half lives" up close and personnel. Even Russia will look good compared to North Korea. There are going to be desertions. Many more, that don't get killed or desert, may go home disgruntled with their condition. North Korea may therefore have to limit its personnel involvement to avoid the chance of domestic discontent.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-25-2024

(10-25-2024, 08:45 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/factbox-north-koreas-military-one-081221402.html

Obviously neither definitive or comprehensive, the above article does give some information about North Korean military capability. Their very large number of armored vehicles, though dated, indicates North Korea has significant capability to augment Russian capabilities. They also have a large number of active-duty troops that have spent at least three years in the military. These troops are disciplined and well organized. How well they will actually fight is unknown. In the few skirmishes that have occurred with South Korean forces over the past may years the North Koreans maintained discipline and fought well. They did not however respond flexibly. Hard to draw conclusions from such a small number of cases usually under "unusual" circumstances.

IMO North Korea is going to have trouble with the troops it sends to the "outside world". A significant percentage of these troops will see "how the other half lives" up close and personnel. Even Russia will look good compared to North Korea. There are going to be desertions. Many more, that don't get killed or desert, may go home disgruntled with their condition. North Korea may therefore have to limit its personnel involvement to avoid the chance of domestic discontent.

Russia apparently raises interest rates to 21%.  Not enough workers to fill civilian jobs, men joining the army to get the higher and higher payouts Putin has to pay, making the situation worse. Food prices rising at around 9 %, wages do not seem to be rising commensurately unless you join the Army.  I would say the Russian economy has some major issues.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-25-2024

(10-25-2024, 06:58 PM)GK3 Wrote:  Russia apparently raises interest rates to 21%.  Not enough workers to fill civilian jobs, men joining the army to get the higher and higher payouts Putin has to pay, making the situation worse. Food prices rising at around 9 %, wages do not seem to be rising commensurately unless you join the Army.  I would say the Russian economy has some major issues.

Indeed it does. These problems will only get worse and eventually will become unsustainable. Unfortunately things in Russia are nowhere near as bad (yet) economically as they were under Yeltsin. The Russian populace remembers that. Putin is getting lots of slack as the "least bad choice". Until that changes not much else will. Putin of course is counting on "victory" in Ukraine fairly rapidly restoring the status quo ante regarding sanctions and the oil/gas trade. If he turns out to be correct (which unfortunately is very possible) the rule-based system of international relations will be pretty much destroyed. Not at all good for the USA.

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